"The coach will only make an early offer if there's evidence that the kid can successfully achieve the scores and grades necessary to get in. For example, if the kid is a freshman and got a 4.0 and took the PSAT and scored 1500, and the kid is a stud, a coach may take a chance and make an offer."
I don't agree with this blanket statement. For it to be true for D1s, you wouldn't hear of offers being made to ninth graders except for academic studs and the reality is only baseball studs are getting those early offers (the rarest of whom may be an emerging academic stud).
It is true that every coach will tell those who are being recruited what academic standards need to be met, but no power school waits until the academic resume is complete; those schools only wait until the requisite baseball skills emerge.
During the holiday break several years ago, I was golfing with a PAC-12 coach. During our game, he was on the phone with seniors he had recruited and had given oral offers to as ninth or tenth grade players, several of whom had not yet met the NCAA testing milestone. While he was incredibly encouraging to each, it was clear that the onus was on the player to meet the milestone - the school was fielding a complete team with or without that player. And, this is one huge reason that that oral offers arent consummated - the kid didnt meet NCAA academic requirements - the oral offer was simply a way to lock a kid up and remove him from the market.
The HA world is very different; but only a small minority of D1s have athletic standards which require more than the NCAA minimums.
It all goes back to this, to have that oral offer consummated: (1) the player needs to meet academic requirements, (2) continue to develop his baseball along the perceived track, (3) not have too many character issues, and (4) the coach needs to remain in place.
The player has absolute control over 1 - 3 and an oral offer is trumped by any failure. Any coach who intends to remain a coach will keep on his recruits to meet those requirements.