Astonishing. D1 Player Attrition Rates

There are some great people on here to guide you through the process. If you post some of his baseball and physical stats, they can help you understand how much of a shot he has at a D1. I knew my son wasn't currently a D1 pitcher, so he ended up with a great scholarship from a coach that absolutely loved and wanted him there.

thanks bshane. I've posted here a bit so most probably know he's a 2025 LHP 6ft 1in, 83-85mph; t87.  I think he can eventually get a D1 shot somewhere but that's not my personal priority.  We're kind of butting heads. 

Butting heads with a teenager, now there's an anomaly!

I'm the wrong person to give advice on timing of commitments, but it seems to me you guys have some time. It seems to me his opportunities will come base on his progression (work and genetics). You guys are in the sweet spot of parent/kid athletics, don't let the future spoil the present (our most valuable assets are positive memories with the people we care about).  

You're thinking risk/reward and return on investment and he's thinking dream. I highly suggest you support his dream (within reason) until adulthood and ability sort things out. You never want to be the parent the pushed your kid into something that doesn't work out. They need to be all in on their life choice decisions or you'll forever be linked with a possible negative result. We should give them good data and food for thought without a lot of opinion, and they should completely own the choices.

In the words of Russell Wilson's dad: "Why not you?" You never know, I certainly didn't...

Another fun game to play is check the PG 2021 commitment list then check that schools current roster.  I was looking at a P5 roster last weekend that had 18 commits still listed.  Only 2 of those players are still on that said team.  Every other player is elsewhere or out of baseball.

This isn't a baseball only issue.  I stumbled across this info about the Netflix show QB1:

Season 1

• Tayvon Bowers – Committed to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, subsequently transferred to the Gardner–Webb Runnin' Bulldogs.
• Jake Fromm – Committed to the Georgia Bulldogs. Fromm was subsequently drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the fifth round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
• Tate Martell – Committed to the Ohio State Buckeyes, subsequently transferred to the Miami Hurricanes and later to UNLV.

Season 2

• Justin Fields – Committed to the Georgia Bulldogs, subsequently transferred to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fields was drafted by the Chicago Bears in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
• Sam Hartman – Committed to the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. He has since transferred to play for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
• Re-al Mitchell– Committed to the Iowa State Cyclones, subsequently transferred to the Temple Owls and later to San Diego.

Season 3

• Lance Legendre – Committed to the Maryland Terrapins, subsequently transferred to the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.
• Spencer Rattler – Committed to the Oklahoma Sooners, subsequently transferred to the South Carolina Gamecocks.
• Nik Scalzo – Committed to the Kentucky Wildcats, subsequently transferred to the Samford Bulldogs.

Season 4

• Bryce Young - Committed to the Alabama Crimson Tide. Won the Heisman Trophy in 2021. Drafted by the Carolina Panthers first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
• Anthony Richardson (American football) - Committed to the Florida Gators. Subsequently drafted by the Indianapolis Colts fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.
• Deuce Hogan - Committed to the Iowa Hawkeyes, subsequently transferred to the Kentucky Wildcats.

@Dadbelly2023, has your son been to any camps at his target level where the players are present? Getting a close up look at where he wants to be might help him right size his aspirations OR show him he's on the right track and motivate him to get where he wants to go. Also, the better coaches will have a talk at some point during the camp where they are honest to players about the process and their expectations. Then you aren't the only voice...

@PTWood.  That's a great idea. But he's got a bit of dead arm right now from the long season so he begged off on some fall camps he was invited to.  He says he doesn't have any pain but his velo drops off precipitously after 1-2 innings in the past couple months.

He went to a fall academic showcase camp where it seems clear that he is a bubble kid; 50/50 D1 and D3 followup.  I think he was tied for 11th out of 90 pitchers (2024/2025) in velo. Watching my older kid's mid tier D2 fall games, no doubt he could pitch for them right now.

I'm committed to being almost "No Voice" for awhile.  I'll see how hard he works this winter and how the spring goes.  It'll all work out the way it's supposed to.

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

I've been playing around on CBI looking at data for my 2025.  (He still wants to try to go to a D1 program despite my preference he instead go to the highest academic D3 he can)

This is the typical thing I'm seeing.  I won't name the D1 school specifically.   

39 player roster for 2024.

21 incoming players. 9 freshman.

18 outgoing players.  9 freshman. only 1 graduated. 3 drafted.

I guess if you don't put yourself out there, you'll never know if you can stick at that level but man, those odds suck. I'm going to hate the drama of my son coming to me at the end of freshman year saying "I want to leave" or "I've been asked to leave" and then doing this recruiting thing all over again.

How many incoming freshman were there in 2023?

In other words, what % of the 2023 class were the 9 transferring freshman?

Thanks!

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

@PTWood.  That's a great idea. But he's got a bit of dead arm right now from the long season so he begged off on some fall camps he was invited to.  He says he doesn't have any pain but his velo drops off precipitously after 1-2 innings in the past couple months.

He went to a fall academic showcase camp where it seems clear that he is a bubble kid; 50/50 D1 and D3 followup.  I think he was tied for 11th out of 90 pitchers (2024/2025) in velo. Watching my older kid's mid tier D2 fall games, no doubt he could pitch for them right now.

I'm committed to being almost "No Voice" for awhile.  I'll see how hard he works this winter and how the spring goes.  It'll all work out the way it's supposed to.

Remind your son follow up/conversation doesn’t mean offer. It just means he’s in the big bucket of first level interest.

As for you post on large number of transfers it was this way before the portal. It’s just worse now. 18-20 position players and pitchers has never worked well for a 35 man roster. It’s why a player has to gauge his potential opportunities at the college before committing.

When my son was a freshman fourteen, all world in high school freshman thought they would be three year starters and drafted. Half were wrong and gone within two years. With the portal a lot more players are moving on after one year.

@SpeedDemon posted:

How many incoming freshman were there in 2023?

In other words, what % of the 2023 class were the 9 transferring freshman?

Thanks!

Great question.  2023.  18 incoming players.  14 freshmen.  So only 5 of the freshmen "stuck".

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

Great question.  2023.  18 incoming players.  14 freshmen.  So only 5 of the freshmen "stuck".

Got it. Interesting! Thanks.

@JucoDad posted:

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You're thinking risk/reward and return on investment and he's thinking dream. I highly suggest you support his dream (within reason) until adulthood and ability sort things out. You never want to be the parent the pushed your kid into something that doesn't work out. They need to be all in on their life choice decisions or you'll forever be linked with a possible negative result. We should give them good data and food for thought without a lot of opinion, and they should completely own the choices.

....................

^^This.  100%.

Parents have a terrible record of talking sense into teenagers.  However, life is undefeated when making sense to teenagers.  He'll figure it out at some point.   

I remember the exact situation when the lightbulb came on with my oldest son.   We were watching this guy throw a bullpen at PG WWBA with college coaches and scouts crowded around and pointing radar guns at this guy...he was hitting 100mph with little effort.  It was a like a magic trick.    I asked my son what he thought.  He said "this guy stands out"......."I need to find a place where I stand out, because it isn't here."  Instant self-realization.  We moved onto Plan B.

Just my experience.  Good luck Dadbelly2023!

Just got word a D1 2023 we know just texted his coach to let him know he’s transferring and is quitting immediately. Says he’s going to take the spring off and re-class to 2024 (not even sure that is possible) and go juco (which I told the dad he should do 18 months ago)

If he has the academics to get into a HA D3, and has D1 baseball skills, why not chose/try to get into a D1 program where there is no attrition, gives players the time needed to develop, allows for baseball stumbles, and awards degrees which provide huge headstarts in the real world?

There are at least 8 schools which fit that bill.

@Goosegg posted:

If he has the academics to get into a HA D3, and has D1 baseball skills, why not chose/try to get into a D1 program where there is no attrition, gives players the time needed to develop, allows for baseball stumbles, and awards degrees which provide huge headstarts in the real world?

There are at least 8 schools which fit that bill.

Talk to me Goose.  I agree that those 8 schools provide the best protection for D1 student athletes.  But there are only 7-8 incoming freshman for each school; so 64 total spots per year.  What I saw this rising summer was they were all targeting pitchers who were sitting 86+; touching 89-93.  The irony is that all those kids were in turn targeting higher level of baseball schools;  and, at least the ones on my son's team, weren't the same caliber of student.  Maybe next year they will have more interest in him.  Right now, he's just in a big follow bucket for them.

And then again some D3s are in contact with him early, probably hoping he doesn't make a velo jump this winter?  A LHP who sits 84-86 with good secondary stuff in the senior fall is probably a great D3 recruit.

I'll have to look at CBI some more.  I suspect Patriot league school athletes are at less risk for upheaval.  Maybe Richmond, W&M, Davidson.  others?

"Talk to me Goose." LOVE IT! My first purchased movie video - and our (long expired) cat's name! (Dating myself a bit, here.)

Anyway, a few things.

First, the Ivies do recruit later than most D1 programs, so if he hasn't got specific interest yet, there is little to be learned from any perceived lack of attention. The primary reason is that a 10th grader (and obviously a 9th grader) probably doesn't have the solid academic resume which is the prerequisite to getting an offer. That means that Ivy recruiters are just building "follow" lists while other D1s are extending early (and meaningless) offers. Making it into the following bucket is huge - can't get an offer unless you are in the bucket in the first place. (One lesson here: get that needed test score early; same with the AP classes and test scores. A coach can look at the curriculum as early as end of 10th grade and have a good feel for the coach's ability to get the player through admissions.)

Second, if proball is the dream, a player sacrifices nothing to attend an Ivy. Every player in the country (actually, in the world) - regardless of division - who has a potential MLB tool will be found and signed. An entire multi-billion dollar industry is built upon ferreting out talent and no one goes unfound. The Ivies have deep connections in baseball (think Texas Rangers, for example, with Venable and Young; Frawley with the Twins. The Ivy list is endless; there is no anti-Ivy bias (except in drafting and signing HS Ivy committed players.))

Third, no one heads to the portal from an Ivy until they have graduated. (I'm not familiar with the portal and the Patriot league). The degree is simply too valuable; the step down in career opportunites is too great to leave without the piece of sheepskin. Contrast that with the portal scramble for players from other leagues - it seems like "what happens if proball isn't a realistic chance" is now an after thought. (Both my kids graduated from the same school, so I have a feel for career trajectories and it's pretty impressive. [Both Mom and Dad are state school grads, and we marvel at the difference.])

Fourth, there are no differences in summer collegiate ball opportunites between, let's say, an LSU player and a Dartmouth player - all other things being equal (i.e., playing quality). (My son - now remember this was a long time ago - played Northwoods and the Cape - and also interned for a summer in NYC with MLB working in economics.)

So, what can he do now? Get the best PC you can afford and with whom he can bond and love. Velo is king; work and focus on that. Find a trainer (same standards) - velo builds with strength and flexibility. Accept nothing less than max effort from academics (tutors if needed - same as the above baseball skill development). Learn where the Ivy coaches will be during the summer and get there; write them to find out, if necessary. If possible, visit some campuses to see if he likes them - each school has a different feel/personality.

D3s will still be there later.

You can PM me - though I'm not really tech literate and sometimes can't figure out how to reply.

Goose … The goalie from Brown transferred to Boston University for junior year. My first reaction was, “Are you effing nuts?”

Boston University is a Top Forty university. He did go from a 30% win team to the preseason #1. He now has pro prospects playing defense in front of him instead of clowns. But it’s a huge roll of the dice putting all your chips in on a pro career versus the connections of an Ivy. If his objective is a career in hockey  (scouting, coaching) if the NHL doesn’t work out I guess it works. His current BU coach is a former long term NHL player.

A lefty throwing 84-86 summer before senior year with good grades will get a lot of interest. To avoid schools with portal craziness, I recommend focusing on Patriot League and a couple of the Big East schools in addition to IVY plus D3s like JHU, Emory, etc. Also, Showball is a must as it’s very efficient and a lot of those schools wait until the camps and then offer quickly.

@JucoDad posted:

Butting heads with a teenager, now there's an anomaly!

I'm the wrong person to give advice on timing of commitments, but it seems to me you guys have some time. It seems to me his opportunities will come base on his progression (work and genetics). You guys are in the sweet spot of parent/kid athletics, don't let the future spoil the present (our most valuable assets are positive memories with the people we care about).  

You're thinking risk/reward and return on investment and he's thinking dream. I highly suggest you support his dream (within reason) until adulthood and ability sort things out. You never want to be the parent the pushed your kid into something that doesn't work out. They need to be all in on their life choice decisions or you'll forever be linked with a possible negative result. We should give them good data and food for thought without a lot of opinion, and they should completely own the choices.

In the words of Russell Wilson's dad: "Why not you?" You never know, I certainly didn't...

Small world, Russell Wilson is my cousin, part of the Ayers (46 min mark) line Russell Wilson with Dr. Henry Louis Gates, Jr. at The Richmond Forum

A distant cousin was involved in this project, we've collaborated on the tree.

Some elements of ancestry.com has been incorporated in CBI