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Available talent to play College Ball by State, #'s tell the story

ILVBBILVBB1,000+ posts
Now that HS season is over, this ought to start a lively discussion.

For some time I have thought about the relative population dynamics of baseball. Specifically, how do the population differences by state affect the opportunities for kids in that state to play college baseball? Warning this is a quick and dirty analysis it is likely not to be perfect.

We have all talked about how the Sunbelt states are more competitive, however, when you see the numbers it is shocking as to the incredible advantage they have in generating talent. Also, it also points out that if you want to play ball, your chances are far better if you are willing to move to states where opportunity exceeds that in your own state.

For some time now I have been talking to kids about looking outside California if you want to play ball there is far more opportunity; these numbers make it very clear.

This is my calculation of the number of high school baseball players from each state, that are available to fill each roster position at 4-year colleges in that state. I have not included Jucos in my analysis believing that each Juco supports the needs of its own community.

I limited my analysis to six states, California, Texas, Oregon, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I knew what would happen, but the numbers were more dramatic then I expected.

California - 45 (student baseball player to fill each spot on a 4-year roster)
Texas - 34
Oregon - 26
Ohio - 16
North Carolina - 16
Pennsylvania - 12

Methodology

What I did was take Department of Education stats for the number of public and private schools by state. I then discounted the total number of schools by 20% for the very small schools, girl’s schools, vocational, special education and those schools that may not play baseball (my version of a fudge factor). This gave me a population of high school baseball teams. I made the assumption that the average baseball team produces 20 kids per team with half of them, 10 being seniors (I know there are many that are small, but I had to use some number). This gave me a total population of HS baseball players by state available to fill college rosters.

For the number of opportunities to play college baseball I used collegeboard.org (the SAT people) and did a search by state of 4-year schools that offered baseball. I then made the assumption that each team averaged 35 players and that ¼ of the rosters needed to be filled every year.


If you want to recreate your own analysis I used the following websites http://nces.ed.gov/datatools/ and http://collegeboard.org
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LD Line Drive100+ posts
I’m not moving to Pennsylvania and you can bet those scouts will spend some time in Florida too because the numbers will be similar to Texas and California. However, the real problem with these numbers is my son’s opportunity to play baseball in college will not be determined by the number of baseball players in Texas or any other state. It will be determined by his baseball skills.

Is that lively enough? Big Grin
Last edited by Line Drive
ILVBBILVBB1,000+ posts
I did the analysis to show some parents here in California that there is far more opportunity outside of California. I was talking to one parent of a kid that is good, not great but good. He was commenting that he could not get the attention of the coachs at the D1 schools here in CA.

I had to ask him is your son one of the best 80 kids in the state? My theory is there are about 20 D1 programs, each school will recruit 10 kids +/- a year with 60% being pitchers. That means for a positon player here that wants to stay here and play he must be one of the best 80 players. Pretty tough odds!

I then attempted to show him how opportunity opened up for California kids if they were willing to explore opportunities elsewhere. I got tired of hearing that their son was better than so and so that was getting a scholly from a school outside of CA.

I am not suggesting that anyone move. However, there is an opportunity to play ball if kids and parents understand the numbers and take a broader look at the world.

When my son was looking at schools he wanted to stay in CA. He was good but not great. Once he started exploring the rest of the country the opportunities started to present themselves.

I did this analysis to help a group of parents understand why their kids weren't getting a good look and to explain why there is opportunity elsewhere.

Line Drive - of course it is a matter of talent. But given the amount of talent versus the opportunity many will need to seek schools outside Texas if they want to play.

Catcher09 - I don't know what the impact in your area because I have no idea where Lanta is! However, what this does tell me is that I would expect the scouts to spend more time in CA, TX, AZ and FL; guess what they do! If I was a parent of a kid the faster I realize this the better prepared I would be to help my kid.
Last edited by ILVBB
infielddadinfielddad10,000+ posts
Line Drive,
I agree 100% that your son's baseball skills will determine whether he plays in college.
However, where he plays, and the level at which he plays, unless he is a top talent, will likely be influenced to a signficant degree by factors other than his skill.
California, for instance, turns out way more DI talent that there are spots available, as ILVBB proposes. If you are one of those who has very good skills and talent, but don't "excel" in the way recruiting/showcases are done, your son may end up playing, but not where you expected or hoped.
That may end up being the best for your son and many others, depending on things like "fit."
LD Line Drive100+ posts
I grew up in Northern California and now live in Texas. I am painfully aware of the competition in these states. My point was if you don’t have D1 talent, it won’t help to look out of state. Coaches across the country know where the talent is. They recruit heavily in California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona and the top talent gets the out of state D1 slots too.

My son’s high school has a very good baseball program. For years now, virtually all of the varsity starters have the opportunity to play college baseball. However, as you pointed out, not everyone gets to go to UT, Rice, or TCU. Some of them have to settle for A&M. (Sorry, Texas humor.) Some go to out of state D1 programs or get drafted. Others go to smaller in state programs or JUCO’s. A few choose D1 academics over baseball.

So, if you have D1 talent and live in California, I agree that you should look beyond USC and be open to out of state opportunities, but this is a small percentage of players. Most kids just don’t have that level of skill so looking out of state won’t really help them. They will probably be happier in the end if they stay closer to home and pick a good quality but smaller program. Besides, two good years at a well know JUCO can get them a second chance at their dream school.

It is worth noting that schools like UT currently have a roster of 50-60 players. Recent NCAA rule changes will put an end to this. When it is cut to 35 players, 15-25 players with D1 skills will be looking for a new home. They will likely fill about half the roster at a smaller program and in the future these players will go straight to the smaller programs bumping everyone down one step. Bottom line is it is getting tougher and great talent with good grades is still king.
obradyobrady500+ posts
I made a simular argument about college football a few years back. I approached it as; why do certain schools seem to always have more talent? I looked at my school, SC vs UGA. What I argued is that SC has a population of around 4 million (in the entire state) and 2 major Universities while GA has 4 million in Atlanta area alone and two major schools. My thought was no wonder some schools seem to go out of state to recruit.
Last edited by obrady
FungoFungoHighly Regarded and Beloved Old Timer
A lot of good points here but I think this is a too complicated approach to seeking a college baseball program. I think players seeking a program should consider their talent and “fit” and attend showcases to determine opportunity. D-1 caliber players will get multi state interest and opportunities if they showcase properly. California is part of the United States and it is impossible to isolate California from the rest of the US. There are coaches crossing the California border daily (and every state) recruiting players and players are also traveling around the US looking to be recruited. College coaches from the “less talented states” will recruit more heavily in FL, TX and CA luring away many players which has to reduce the talent base. On the other hand you have to consider there are players from “other” states that are sending players into California colleges taking roster spots from California players. For instance, Stanford alone has 20 out of state players on their roster. This recruiting scenario is so large than it is virtually impossible to make a correlation between players and roster spots of just one state. The baseball world is shrinking. I do agree with the general consensus that a player from the warmer “baseball rich” state will find more, and maybe a better opportunity in a colder, less baseball conducive environment that they would at home.
B Bee>1,000+ posts
quote:
by ILBB: I did the analysis to show some parents here in California that there is far more opportunity outside of California.
while I do admire your analysis, I'm guessing it would be lost on those to who hadn't yet realized that more opportunities exist in "50" states than in "1" state

btw, you don't have to move to take advantage of distant opportunities - drop a letter in the US Mail, or hit the send button on your e-mail pgm or cell


great analysis tho Wink would ya mind breaking it down by position??
Last edited by Bee>
BeezerBeezer1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by ILVBB:
I limited my analysis to six states, California, Texas, Oregon, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. I knew what would happen, but the numbers were more dramatic then I expected.

California - 45 (student baseball player to fill each spot on a 4-year roster)
Texas - 34
Oregon - 26
Ohio - 16
North Carolina - 16
Pennsylvania - 12



I get your point, just don't understand the numbers.
ILVBBILVBB1,000+ posts
Beezer:

The analysis indicates that in California there are 45 graduating HS players available to fill each spot on a 4-year roster versus 12 graduating HS players to fill each roster spot in Pennslvania. Hence, 4 times the "talent pool" in California versus Pennsylvania.

For a kid in California that may have the talent to play college ball, yet becuase he is not the best, there is likely a better opportunity to get a good education and play ball if he were willing to leave California (say Pennsylvania where this is 1/4 the competition for roster spots versus California).
Last edited by ILVBB
catcher09catcher091,000+ posts
ILVBB

Lanta is the capital of Georgia. We have a great deal of baseball talent and quite a few in-state colleges to choose from.

To Fungo's point, things are a bit more complicated. As one example, Georgia has the hope scholorship which is open to all Georgians that have a B or more average. Coaches use this to assist in providing a total scholly package to Georgia residents. Most of our colleges are heavy in Georgia talent because of this.
observer44observer441,000+ posts
.
Interesting data and not unpredictable as mentioned. In CA it can also be worse because a school such as Stanford recruits heavily OUTSIDE the state.

Still not convinced about the roster size change...Unless I am mistaken...and correct me if I am wrong...

...if Redshirts are not counted against the 35, and there is no limit to redshirt #'s...then the defacto roster sizes can will remain pretty much where they currently are.

Cool 44
.
Last edited by observer44
ILVBBILVBB1,000+ posts
Cather09

You made me smile, thanks!

I read your response "Capital of Georgia" and it did not register. Ten minutes latter I am doing something else and do my best southern drawl and then it dawns on me, but of course; Lanta.

It was definitly a big chuckle, a smile cheek-to-cheek as I write this.
Last edited by ILVBB

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