Average Velocity Increases

Bum, you are quite the researcher! Interesting stuff, indeed.

Really interesting data - especially for those of us with rising Junior LHPs!!!!

Thanks for doing this.

08

Nice job, but you left age out of your analysis. My guess would be that you'd find that 15yo sophmores increase velocity by the time they are juniors more than 16yo sophmores do. That can probably be found somewhat indirectly in the difference in speed increase for those who grew and those who didn't grow.

The reason why the height increase mattered was not so much the increase in height but the fact that those who didn't grow were already physically mature. The data I put together indicates that age (really physical maturity, but that is hard to measure) is the biggest driver relative to velocity with about a 3.4 mph increase between 15yo and 16yo due to age and about .6 or .7 mph increase for every inch of height. Between 16 and 17yo there is a much smaller velocity increase due to age alone. Your data on the difference between speeds relative to the rankings indicates there's another factor involved - hard work!

On average the biggest increases due to age alone come between 13 and 14, and 14 and 15. Those increases average about 4 mph each year.

Overall I'm glad to see that my information is similar to yours as you used a much larger and more precisely collected data base than I did.

The importance of age is probably overlooked quite often at HS underclass showcases where a 15yo and 16yo 2009 are compared based mostly on their graduation year. The reality is that if they are both maturing at an average pace the 15yo will be likely to gain about 4 mph more in velocity than the 16yo by the time they graduate. The difference is less for the 16yo 2008 vs the 17yo 2008 but still there. The difference for the 17yo 2007 vs the 18yo 2007 is even less.

This is a pet peeve of mine because I have gone through entire showcase listings and not found a single pitcher younger for his grade than my son. Yet there are several players younger than my son for their grade at his HS alone and several others within only a month older. One showcase had players ranging from 2 months to 18 months older for their grade, with the majority being 10 or 11 months older.

Of course it really doesn't matter for the superstars. Delmon Young was quite young for his grade. The reality is that very, very few are superstars and the age difference does matter for the rest of the players.

CaDad,

I agree, but PG's showcases are by graduating year. For those of you with young sophomores, you can thereby expect greater gains between the junior and senior years, on average, than the older kids. And that's a good thing!

Keep in mind these are not really typical velocity averages; these are only the kids whose parents think they're good enough to enroll in a PG showcase. But I'm assuming most HSBBW parents' kids are these type of competitive kids.

My son is a January birthday and started school accordingly. He was at a recent PG event and while I was reading through the profiles I saw a guy who looked like a MAN ( not size wise - but had the face of a man). Class of 2007. He is a full 2 years older than my kid and will be 20 when he graduates high school. I guess you have to take everything into account.

Redhead, you are so right! Pull up Matthew Zoltak's profile on PG. He had a 10 MPH increase in one year..and then take a look at the difference in his picture between 2004 and 2005. No wonder. He became a man.

quote:

Originally posted by Redhead:
I guess you have to take everything into account.

This may sound a bit odd - but sometimes you might not want to take anything into account other than going out there with your chin up - hitting it hard - catching them all - and running like a wild dog.

You dont have to think or read or listen to anything.

Just kick *** on the field.

Thats it.

I wasn't whining or making excuses - I was stating that there are a lot of factors that go into the development of a player. No need to dissect every phrase.

Redhead,

Apparently you didnt like my advice. Sorry.

As for dissecting everything - my advice was just the opposite.

To each his own I guess.

I would look at that data and say it doesn't mean a thing. Why would I want to settle for the norm? I want to do a whole lot better than what everyone else is doing. Just work your butt off and bury the competition through hard work , dedication and desire. Growth charts , worrying about how tall a kid will be , trying to project where his velocity will be etc etc etc. Teach a kid a great work ethic , get him around some other players with a great work ethic and let him go to work. Then just play and have some fun. The bottom line is peformance on the field. No wonder gamer son can flat out play all you have to do is read his posts. Like they say, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

I think RH has been completely misconstrued here.

I didn't mean to come across so harsh here. I was just making a point. There is nothing wrong with projecting where your son might be. It is real hard to do that though. How hard will he work. How much will he grow. What does God have in store for him. Good Luck

Absolutely agree with the need for a strong work ethic.

Overall, I agree with your skepticism concerning projection. Especially at the younger ages.

Yet as they get to be HS juniors, perhaps projection has a little worth (as tenuous as it may be).

Some kids physically mature early. By the time they have been in HS for a year or so, they are done growing. Velocity improvements for these kids will come from improving mechanics and some through gaining strength. Not likely to be large gains.

Some kids are late growers. They hit their growth spurt late and are still growing as they leave for college. The growing process will add to velocity (if their mechanics are halfway decent), over and above gains from improved mechanics and strength training. It is possible to see some signficant gains.

Now what difference does it make? In most respects, none. Work hard, make the most of whatever it is.

Do you think a little projection is helpful in any way at all? Perhaps in setting recruiting expectations?

Texas - You are right - I wrote four lines - just a simple observation that there is a wide disparity in age in the same graduating class. That, along with all the other information, is taken into account when interpreting the evaluations .

I assure you I am not concerned with how big my boy will be. At 6-4 I am ready for the vertical growth to stop.

Actually it makes a big difference at times. Traditionally the early maturers / kids who were held back get the playing time and opportunities. Often they get those chances at the expense of more talented, but less physically mature, players and that additional playing time helps them stay ahead of the more talented player at least in the eyes of a HS coach. One really can't blame a coach for it because present performance is almost always more valuable than projected performance.

That's one of the reasons that showcases are a good thing. It gives those players a chance to perform on a talent vs talent basis with fewer biases based on where they were against someone who was a year or two more physically mature in the past. They are still at a disadvantage but by the time they are 17yo seniors competing against 18yo and 19yo seniors the disadvantage is usually pretty minimal for all but the latest maturers.

Once again, the extremely talented players will stand out no matter what. It is the fairly talented players who will have to work harder than the rest to catch up who end up at a disadvantage due to relative lack of physical maturity.

its,
I assume your son was a 17yo senior who has managed to succeed despite a minor disadvantage given your comment, otherwise it is a little bit arrogant statement.

Texan,
Good comments. In the end you said effectively the same thing as its, but I believe you put it in the proper persepective. The disadvantage does exist. The key is what the player decides to do about it. The only thing a player can do is work even harder now with the realization that their time to shine is still ahead of them.

Redhead,
My 14yo just hit 6' and while I'm not ready for the vertical growth to stop I wouldn't mind if it would slow down just enough for the growth related injuries to recover.

Coach May,
If you ignore physical maturity differences in evaluating players you are only going to hurt your program. A coach has to balance putting the best team on the field this year with developing the best team possible in the future.

BTW, JMO but in Texas with the emphasis on holding kids back for football the disparities can be even more glaring.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
On average the biggest increases due to age alone come between 13 and 14, and 14 and 15. Those increases average about 4 mph each year.

It would be interesting to chart this from 11 to 18.

CaDad,

Have no idea why you mention arrogance - or disadvantages of my son. Really unnecessary IMO - But, so be it. I have been called far worse. LOL

The point of my post is that - IMO - your best bet is to believe in yourself - and not rely on anyone else's projections.

If that is a disadvantage - or arrogant - then I guess you are right.

Beezer,
I used input primarily from HSBaseballweb parents for my data so although I got a few inputs from the pre-HS section there weren't enough for the curve fit to be valid for under 12 or over 17 and I'm a little bit leery of the results between 16 and 17 which show very little velocity increase due to age at all.

The increases between 13 and 14 and 14 and 15 make a lot of sense as most kids mature physically somewhere in that timeframe. My guess is that most kids will have a jump of 6 or 7 mph in one of those years and less in the other and with some kids maturing a bit earlier and some a bit later it averages out at 4 mph for age alone over those two years. There's some additional gain due to height also as that is when the growth spurt normally occurs also.

Mine hasn't been able to throw for a year now and he's grown over 4 inches and matured quite a deal physically in that time so it will be interesting to see what happens to his velocity once we've very gradually rehabbed his arm. He's now just as tall as the LLWS stud who was an early maturer and 6" taller that year and it'll be interesting to see where their velocities sit relative to each other. I think the LLWS kid will still throw a bit harder as he's just plain got a good arm. The LLWS kid is also a very good pitcher who I'd project to have a very successful HS career given that he's throwing in the low 80's and knows how to pitch going into his freshman season.

its,
No offense intended. My point was simply that if your son was a 17yo senior who overcame a bit of a disadvantage due to age to succeed then you had every right to tell people to just work hard and not worry.

If your son on the other hand was an 18yo senior who succeeded without any great advantage or disadvantage due to age as most HS players are that age then you haven't walked a mile in a younger player's shoes. That's why I'd call your statement a bit arrogant (I edited my original post to change it from pretty arrogant to a bit arrogant.) if that's the case. You'll notice that I didn't say it was wrong, and in fact I agree with what you said. Read my note to Texan and perhaps you'll understand where I'm coming from. BTW, from what I can tell redhead's kid is going to be 18 during his senior season and not someone I'd consider at any disadvantage age wise, except for the fact that he's from Texas where they hold kids back routinely for football, although he could be physical maturity wise as the two don't always track one on one, although at 6'4" that's not real likely. I don't think redhead was making any excuses or whining at all. He was just making an observation.

I'm not that surprised by the plateau at 16/17, CD.

Seems like I have seen that in a fair number of cases. Most common among the early maturers, I think.

CaDad,

I understand. No offense taken either.
(Sometimes I think alot gets lost in cyber translation).

For instance - my message might be construed to mean "Dont listen to Anyone". That - IMO - is not good advice and not the intent of the message.

I have had both experiences actually. The experience with the eldest was quite different than the one with the youngest.

But I have - right or wrong - always taught my boys to play as hard as possible every second - listen to their coach - and ignore everyone else that isnt directly involved in the game.

It seems like nowadays - if the kids are out there on the field alot - there is alot of projecting and alot of opinions - coming from alot of angles.

As time has gone by - I find it easier - and more enjoyable - to just ignore 99% of that stuff. And I think both boys do as well.

I guess I am straying off (maybe far off) the topic of physical projection.

My apologies for the straying.

its,
I agree that the kids need to ignore all the other stuff and just do their best to improve and play well each and every day. Projecting is something for the coaches and scouts to worry about. My projections for how big my son was going to be have been off so far. He's an inch or two taller than I would have expected at this point although there's no guarantee he's going to keep growing.

My experience is that at times being younger than the rest of the kids in their grade can be used as a motivational tool to remind them if they keep working hard they have a good shot at passing kids up who may be better than them at the moment due to physical maturity. Mine has grown and matured quite a deal physically over the last year and although he's still at a bit of an age disadvantage the size and physical maturity issue is almost gone so there really aren't any excuses from here on out.

CaDad,

Agree - that is precisely the same thing that is occurring with my youngest. He is playing with his own age group for the first time in years.

Excuses are kaput at this stage.

CADad, you have a PM.

IIG, understand where you are coming from much more clearly.

CaDad I dont ignore the physical factor at all when dealing with our HS players.

I understand the fact that their are kids that are not as physically mature as others and with time and hard work will blossom in a program. Happens all the time. The bottom line is we will not win by putting kids on the field that have potential over the kids that can produce. We foster an environment where all, physically mature and not physically mature kids can reach their full potential.

The only kids we cut are the ones that will not work regardless of talent or potential. And the ones that are in danger of getting hurt because of their lack of ability to protect themselves.

Some of our best players have been kids that were behind the curve size wise but worked very hard at the game. When their bodies caught up they blossomed into fine ball players. I think you see this all the time with the D3 Community College and JUCO players that maybe were a step slow or a few mph slow on the gun but grew into an adult body once they got into college. As we like to call them late bloomers. I do feel that college programs that know how to project players they are recruiting will continue to stay ahead of the programs that recruit solely on what they see today and dont look at what they could have two or three years down the road. Sometimes a player is polished and physically mature and goes into a program about as good as he is going to be. And then there is the kid that has way more upside and in a couple of years is far and away the better player. Happens all the time.

CA DAD, My son is 14 and has had consistent 5 mph gains every yr (1 yr it was 4) for the last 5 yrs. Would you say thats pretty common for those age groups? I hope he can keep up the bigger gains for a couple more years. I hope he's not done growing yet. He's only 5'3".

JDsDad,
Sounds normal or a bit above average. Depends on where he started from. Here's a site that has a method for predicting adult height that's a little better than most but still not anything that can be relied on. I like it because it estimates physical maturity.

Growth Prediction

Coach May,
Sounds like a good approach. I've noticed that age / physical maturity and 60yd times seem to be correlated also. Mine cut about .5 seconds off his not too quick 60 time in the last 6 months and he hasn't run any sprints in quite a while or been allowed to do any weight work to speak of. He has matured some physically.

PG had a 2009 just turned 15yo with an 85 mph fastball rated at 8.5. There was no 60yd time.

Another 2009 at the same showcase at about 16-1/2 yo who was listed at the same weight and a couple inches taller with a 74mph arm but also with a barely sub 7 60yd time was rated a 10.

Now I'm sure there were a lot of reasons going far beyond the stats for making that rating that one can't see without being there but I'd take the barely 15yo 2009 over the almost 17yo 2009 in a heartbeat unless the 15yo was obviously physically mature for his age. The almost 17yo didn't look like an early maturer and there was no picture of the 15yo.

I'll weigh in on this one. My son's one of the late one's both birthday and maturity. His school coach is good guy and like Coach May juggles alot of issues in order to win at the varsity level but uses JV and Sophmore teams for development. The early maturer kids here definitely have first look both in high school and top select teams which are feeders for most D2 and up colleges and top JC's. My observation is position players are the most affected. Pitcher's performances are more easily measured and effectiveness is way more important than velocity. Now, the punchline is most kids are have a positive high school experience as long as they aren't pressured. We try to teach them to control what you can control, work hard and have fun.

TDad,
Our coach is much the same.

I tend to disagree about the importance of velocity to a pitcher. A pitcher with limited stuff can be very effective vs JV competition but never quite able to cut it at the varsity level while a kid with better stuff who is less effective at the JV level may be more able to move up to varsity and be effective. Ideally of course one wants the kid who knows how to pitch and has good stuff.

On the other hand, a hard thrower who can get by with throwing right down the middle in JV might get hammered at the varsity level.

That's why they pay HS coaches the big bucks.

CADad,

I'll tell you a story about PG ratings. I view them as a snapshot in time. Almost everyone has had good and bad photos of themselves.

My own son finished 15-4 this year, even going 2-0 with no ER in the Junior Olympics. So I figure it's time for a PG showcase. We drove 1200 miles to get there but for some dang reason he left his curveball, normally his very reliable pitch, back home..it was ugly and in the dirt, so he got a disappointing score. A few weeks later, in the Baseball Northwest Showcase, he dominated with his curve and we've already been contacted by scouts. It's just one of those things that happens.

It's not PG's fault. They only know my kid from that moment in time, a snapshot. So instead of complaining we're going back to improve that score, and readjust the lens!

However, this post was about velocity. Velocity is not the end-all, but I'm assuming a lot of HSBBW parents want to get an idea of where their kid might be a year or two from now. If PG profile-players are indicative of the "average" HSBBW player, these numbers help in that projection.

Hey seniors out there: Am interested in hearing about the average velocity increases YOU experienced between your sophomore and junior years.

Well, I'm not sure measuring the velocity of 12 and 13 year olds is anything more than pumping up the ego of Dads Velocity is based on the the presence of fast twitch muscle fibers no matter how big you are. That is why there are so many major league pitchers who are 6 ft. who throw so much harder than the big kids coaches love so much.

On the subject of age advantage or disadvantage of age- that is a real issue, as 17 year olds are compared to 18-19 year old - I think that college recruiters and the pros factor these things into the recruiting process by projecting the relative age and growth rate. But there is a balance to be struck, as their bottom line is whether the kid can help them right away. Hard to spend scholarship money otherwise.

What about any ideas for velocity increases between freshman and sophmore years? is there not enough data about that from PG to tell since i doubt there are as many freshmen that go to showcases.

While all these "averages" are very interesting to consider, I wonder why people think they mean a whole lot to an individual.

The idea is to do what it takes to get as good as YOU can possibly get! What others do or the average of what others have done, has absolutely no bearing on any one individual.

Even if we knew for certain what the "average" velocity increase was... Who wants to be "average"? The "average" player usually doesn't get past high school baseball.

If someone says the average looks like 5 mph per year, then people are likely to think their 16 year old who is throwing 70 will be throwing 95 by the time he's 21. It just don't work that way very often.

IMO - The only "average" increase that means anything is what YOUR AVERAGE increase ends up being!

PG,
GREAT post!

I find these discussions interesting, and hope it's taken for what it's worth, discussion.

I have seen a particular pitcher make HUGE gains in HS. At the rate he was progressing and growing, with what is posted here, he technically should be throwing over 100 by now. Two years later he is throwing approximately the same velocity he was out of HS. Much better pitcher, but throws the same velocity.
Also according to genetic studies he should not be the height he is.

I know iitg took some heat, but as a parent of a college player, I know EXACTLY where he is coming from. Let your son's play, ignore the predictions, velocity and growth charts and leave the worrying and projecting to college coaches and scouts.

I know I am just a mom with an opinion, but I am also the mom of the player mentioned above. Make sure your son gets instruction on good mechanics, teach him how to take proper care of his arm, to remain healthy, that's all you need to do.

JMO

Tiger Paw Mom and PG,

I understand what you are saying, and I agree for the most part. But I believe that the kids analyzed in the data are not "average" h.s. players.. they are kids good enough that their parents felt it was time to showcase.

So for these players, many of whom are close to their dream of playing pro or college, why not wonder "what if"? What if I work my tail off, and long-toss, and work on mechanics, etc. Maybe I'll be the kid that adds 5 MPH not 2 or 0. Division I instead of JC. Of course, these averages mean NOTHING if you do NOTHING. It's also possible they mean NOTHING if you do SOMETHING, too, because all progress relates to a bell curve.. a kid could be on the unfortunate end of that curve. However, I firmly believe that to achieve a goal you need to visualize it first. Believe it could happen. The data at least proves that for that population of kids analyzed it did happen.

Bum,
I am not disagreeing with you, you don't get anywhere without any effort put into it. My point was work on the long toss, work on the mechanics, work on pitching correctly, develop more than one or two pitches. Let mother nature take her course. That's all you can do, don't get caught up in this velocity increase stuff.
I don't think most people sit around analyzing other players to decide what is the right time to showcase.
And what's wrong with a player going to a Juco rather than Div 1 school?
Does that mean he will be in a better program OR get to play more? What's your point?

As PG says, work on being the best YOU can be.

Bum,

I hear what your saying, it makes sense, but to me it would make even more sense to look at the top end of those who improved. Then say, I can do that too with enough hard work and dedication.

My only point was that whatever might be the average means very little to an individual.

Besides, I have seen many different cases when it comes to velocity improvement and when it actually took place.

I have a son who threw in the 80 mph range at age 16, about the same at age 17 and 92 mph at age 18 and then higher yet after 18. There's another kid we know who threw low 90s at 15 years old and the same at age 19. If you averaged out the two it wouldn't tell you much.

So if a young kid did not improve much between 16 and 17 should he get disappointed based on the average. Or should he realize there is still time to improve greatly because others have done it?

I do find the statistics that people take the time to compile, very interesting and maybe even meaningful. I just don't think the average has any bearing on any one players possibilities.