Body Type and Projection for Position Players

Saw this on Fangraphs recently (https://www.fangraphs.com/blog...cdaniel-chat-9-5-18/) from a chat with prospect writer Kiley McDaniel (former crosschecker for Braves, among other things):

Btw pro scouting  is different  than 15u scouting.  Pro scouts won't project height growth because the guys are 18 at draft, but more if the guy can add muscle mass without  getting too stocky and losing mobility.

How often do that take into account what the kid's dad or mom is built like?

$tinky posted:

How often do that take into account what the kid's dad or mom is built like?

They do. If you see a 5’10” 16yo with a five o’clock shadow standing next to a 5’9” dad how much growth do you think is left in the kid? What if the mother is 5’2”? It’s not set in stone the kid is done growing. But it’s likely.

A friend was a 6’7” NBA player. He married a short woman who was a college swimmer. His kids grew to 6’1”. Neither were college basketball prospects. One became a star mid major D1 athlete in another sport.

With so many reclassing, shouldn't they take age into it as well?  It's one thing to be a 6-1 freshmen.  It's another thing when you're a 6-1 freshmen who is 16 years old because you were held back in kindergarten and then reclassed when you were in the 8th grade. 

The amount of kids reclassifying is ridiculous. 

Francis7 posted:

With so many reclassing, shouldn't they take age into it as well?  It's one thing to be a 6-1 freshmen.  It's another thing when you're a 6-1 freshmen who is 16 years old because you were held back in kindergarten and then reclassed when you were in the 8th grade. 

Typically a freshman turns fifteen at some point freshman year or soon after. If a kid starts late or reclassifies once he would be sixteen.

If a kid did as you suggest he would be seventeen at some point freshman year. In most states he would be ineligible senior year in public schools for turning twenty during the academic year. 

RJM posted:

Francis7 posted:

With so many reclassing, shouldn't they take age into it as well?  It's one thing to be a 6-1 freshmen.  It's another thing when you're a 6-1 freshmen who is 16 years old because you were held back in kindergarten and then reclassed when you were in the 8th grade. 

Typically a freshman turns fifteen at some point freshman year or soon after. If a kid starts late or reclassifies once he would be sixteen.

If a kid did as you suggest he would be seventeen at some point freshman year. In most states he would be ineligible senior year in public schools for turning twenty during the academic year. 

Nope. He's right. Every summer birthday (i.e., normally would graduate high school at 17) who is a "double-holdback" -- held back two years, is 16 when freshman year starts, and 19 when senior year starts. Graduates at 19 and turns 20 a few months later.  Happens quite a bit in basketball (I can think of two prominent players here in SoCal just off the top of my head) and is starting to happen in baseball.

2019Dad posted:

RJM posted:

Francis7 posted:

With so many reclassing, shouldn't they take age into it as well?  It's one thing to be a 6-1 freshmen.  It's another thing when you're a 6-1 freshmen who is 16 years old because you were held back in kindergarten and then reclassed when you were in the 8th grade. 

Typically a freshman turns fifteen at some point freshman year or soon after. If a kid starts late or reclassifies once he would be sixteen.

If a kid did as you suggest he would be seventeen at some point freshman year. In most states he would be ineligible senior year in public schools for turning twenty during the academic year. 

Nope. He's right. Every summer birthday (i.e., normally would graduate high school at 17) who is a "double-holdback" -- held back two years, is 16 when freshman year starts, and 19 when senior year starts. Graduates at 19 and turns 20 a few months later.  Happens quite a bit in basketball (I can think of two prominent players here in SoCal just off the top of my head) and is starting to happen in baseball.

No! Most kids turn eighteen during the school year when they’re seniors, seventeen when they’re juniors, sixteen when they’re sophs and fifteen when they’re freshmen. A few kids with summer birthdays (mine both had summer birthdays) are about to turn these ages when the school year ends.

Students who start a year late AND later reclassify another year would turn twenty during their senior year. Turning twenty makes them ineligible in most, if not all states.

I believe a kid is eligible if he turns twenty after June 30th (end of school fiscal year).

RJM posted:

Typically a freshman turns fifteen at some point freshman year or soon after. If a kid starts late or reclassifies once he would be sixteen.

If a kid did as you suggest he would be seventeen at some point freshman year. In most states he would be ineligible senior year in public schools for turning twenty during the academic year. 

Our schools use 10/1 as the cutoff.  My kid was born April 2004. He's a freshman now. He's 14. He will be 15 at the start of the season this year. But, he won't be 16 until sophomore year.  

He has a classmate who was born 9/2004. He just turned 14 at the start of the school year. He won't be 15 until the start of his sophomore year. He won't be 16 until the start of his junior year.

He has another classmate who was born in July of 2003. He repeated kindergarten. He's now 15 as a freshmen.  He will turn 16 just at the end of this season.

We know another kid who is a freshman. He was held back in elementary school. Then he reclassified and repealed the 8th grade.  At this moment, he is 16 years and 2 months old.  He also just committed to college.

We know another kid who just reclassified. He's repeating the 8th grade. He turns 15 next month. So, he will be 16 before he starts his freshman season.

In NJ, with the 10/1 cutoff, the only kids who will be playing at 16 as a freshmen are the kids who reclassified or repeated a grade.

I'm pretty sure once you turn 19 in NJ and PA you are no longer eligible. Obviously different for the preps/boarding schools with PG years, but regular high school sports cut off on the 19th birthday. 

Being 19/20 in HS is weird. Post Grad, hold back, grey shirt, doesn't matter. There are 14 year olds going to school there. 

PABaseball posted:

I'm pretty sure once you turn 19 in NJ and PA you are no longer eligible. Obviously different for the preps/boarding schools with PG years, but regular high school sports cut off on the 19th birthday. 

Being 19/20 in HS is weird. Post Grad, hold back, grey shirt, doesn't matter. There are 14 year olds going to school there. 

To be eligible to participate in grades 10 through 12, you must not have reached your 19th birthday by June 30 immediately preceding the school year. Where you will participate only in grades 7 and 8, you may not have reached your 15th birthday by June 30 immediately preceding the school year; where you will participate only in grades 7 through 9, you may not have reached your 16th birthday by June 30 immediately preceding the school year.

In other words you can’t turn 20 by June 30th after senior year to be eligible senior year. I know of a kid who fit the scenario Francis described. He started school late. He reclassified entering an Inter-Ac. The Inter-Ac isn’t a PIAA member. He turned 20 in the fall of his senior year. He was a catcher and a football player. Imagine a typical, 15yo sophomore, non college prospect football player lining up against a kid about to turn 20. 

https://www.piaa.org/schools/eligibility/default.aspx

Our schools use 10/1 as the cutoff.  My kid was born April 2004. He's a freshman now. He's 14. He will be 15 at the start of the season this year. But, he won't be 16 until sophomore year.  

He has a classmate who was born 9/2004. He just turned 14 at the start of the school year. He won't be 15 until the start of his sophomore year. He won't be 16 until the start of his junior year.

He has another classmate who was born in July of 2003. He repeated kindergarten. He's now 15 as a freshmen.  He will turn 16 just at the end of this season.

We know another kid who is a freshman. He was held back in elementary school. Then he reclassified and repealed the 8th grade.  At this moment, he is 16 years and 2 months old.  He also just committed to college.

We know another kid who just reclassified. He's repeating the 8th grade. He turns 15 next month. So, he will be 16 before he starts his freshman season.

In NJ, with the 10/1 cutoff, the only kids who will be playing at 16 as a freshmen are the kids who reclassified or repeated a grade.

Same as my son, an April birthday.  Will be 14 as a Fresh, mid way through the HS season he will be 15.  I have to crack up at the parents who hold their kid back for sports.  I am sorry, but I would rather my kid play up then down.  And if he can't compete, then just maybe he isn't quite good enough yet.....  It happens quite a bit where I live.

Dadof3 posted:

Our schools use 10/1 as the cutoff.  My kid was born April 2004. He's a freshman now. He's 14. He will be 15 at the start of the season this year. But, he won't be 16 until sophomore year.  

He has a classmate who was born 9/2004. He just turned 14 at the start of the school year. He won't be 15 until the start of his sophomore year. He won't be 16 until the start of his junior year.

He has another classmate who was born in July of 2003. He repeated kindergarten. He's now 15 as a freshmen.  He will turn 16 just at the end of this season.

We know another kid who is a freshman. He was held back in elementary school. Then he reclassified and repealed the 8th grade.  At this moment, he is 16 years and 2 months old.  He also just committed to college.

We know another kid who just reclassified. He's repeating the 8th grade. He turns 15 next month. So, he will be 16 before he starts his freshman season.

In NJ, with the 10/1 cutoff, the only kids who will be playing at 16 as a freshmen are the kids who reclassified or repeated a grade.

Same as my son, an April birthday.  Will be 14 as a Fresh, mid way through the HS season he will be 15.  I have to crack up at the parents who hold their kid back for sports.  I am sorry, but I would rather my kid play up then down.  And if he can't compete, then just maybe he isn't quite good enough yet.....  It happens quite a bit where I live.

My son has a spring birthday too and has always been the youngest kid on his team, often by six or seven months.  I didn't worry about it.  I'm sure it made him a better competitor.

He struggled a bit at 13 and 14 when he hadn't yet hit puberty.  But, now, at 15, he's catching up and passing by other kids who have looked like grown men for a couple of years.  His brother is 6'3 and his dad is 6'4, so I'm sure it doesn't hurt when a coach sees one of them to know where my son is heading.  

My son has SR pitcher on his who turns 19 on May 1 this coming spring. It is huge advantage for him, his college is extremely happy about it as well.

he is not a good student but is eligible so I guess we will see how it turns out. 

Dadof3 posted:

Our schools use 10/1 as the cutoff.  My kid was born April 2004. He's a freshman now. He's 14. He will be 15 at the start of the season this year. But, he won't be 16 until sophomore year.  

He has a classmate who was born 9/2004. He just turned 14 at the start of the school year. He won't be 15 until the start of his sophomore year. He won't be 16 until the start of his junior year.

He has another classmate who was born in July of 2003. He repeated kindergarten. He's now 15 as a freshmen.  He will turn 16 just at the end of this season.

We know another kid who is a freshman. He was held back in elementary school. Then he reclassified and repealed the 8th grade.  At this moment, he is 16 years and 2 months old.  He also just committed to college.

We know another kid who just reclassified. He's repeating the 8th grade. He turns 15 next month. So, he will be 16 before he starts his freshman season.

In NJ, with the 10/1 cutoff, the only kids who will be playing at 16 as a freshmen are the kids who reclassified or repeated a grade.

Same as my son, an April birthday.  Will be 14 as a Fresh, mid way through the HS season he will be 15.  I have to crack up at the parents who hold their kid back for sports.  I am sorry, but I would rather my kid play up then down.  And if he can't compete, then just maybe he isn't quite good enough yet.....  It happens quite a bit where I live.

Having kids start school late is more of a maturity issue than sports projection. In fact, our school district tests for school readiness.

I have a daughter with a July birthday. Girls physically mature early enough for reclassifying to matter. My son has a May birthday. I figured if he needed another year physically he could post grad on the back end. It wasn’t needed.

Each family’s situation is different. A situation may seem absurd to one person. But there may be reasons unknown to others why the decision was made. I figure as long as people aren’t breaking the law it’s not my business and any judgement I pass should be kept private or between close friends.

Its a scam petpetrated by wealthy parents who are afraid to have their boy compete against those on their proper level..they take their kid out of the public system after 8th grade and find a catholic school that will accept a year's tuition so they can repeat 8th grade..from there they go to private HS a year older than their classmates..it's  been going here in NY/NJ for quite a while..should not be allowed in my opinion.

Just for s&g I checked out my kid's metrics against PG top 2023s...Many of the top 2023s are older than my kid, I get why some would reclass

2022NYC posted:

Just for s&g I checked out my kid's metrics against PG top 2023s...Many of the top 2023s are older than my kid, I get why some would reclass

A lot is going to change with a group of fourteen year olds over the next four years. When my son was fourteen he was 5’4” 120. When he graduated he was 6’1” 175 and still growing. 

I looked at what my kid could do as a pint size and knew he would pass a lot of other players over the next few years. I gave very little thought to him having a May birthday.

CatcherDadNY posted:

Its a scam petpetrated by wealthy parents who are afraid to have their boy compete against those on their proper level..they take their kid out of the public system after 8th grade and find a catholic school that will accept a year's tuition so they can repeat 8th grade..from there they go to private HS a year older than their classmates..it's  been going here in NY/NJ for quite a while..should not be allowed in my opinion.

 

 

I'm also in the area, and also find the practice distasteful.  But I have to grudgingly admit that its effective.  That year at 14U is critical for getting on the radar of decision makers and influencers.  It is true that the herd will likely catch up, but the re-classed kid has a better chance of making varsity as a freshman, getting onto top travel teams and getting a good early ranking from PBR.  If the kid really can't play it won't matter, but we're usually talking about shades of grey here...and re-classing can help open some key doors early in the process.  Again - I'm not a proponent, but recognize that it can help some kids.

There is a significant difference in body types between most 16 year olds and 19 year olds...yet you see them competing against each other on a regular basis at the high school level. IMO, a high school baseball player should be eligible until the day he turns 19. After that, no more. Unless there was a significant health issue that kept the young man from attending school, holding back is ridiculous. This may anger a few,  but I feel holding a baseball player back that turns 19 during their senior year is no different than a using shaved bat or a pitcher doctoring a baseball....It's done purely to have an advantage. 

WestCoastPapa posted:

There is a significant difference in body types between most 16 year olds and 19 year olds...yet you see them competing against each other on a regular basis at the high school level. IMO, a high school baseball player should be eligible until the day he turns 19. After that, no more. Unless there was a significant health issue that kept the young man from attending school, holding back is ridiculous. This may anger a few,  but I feel holding a baseball player back that turns 19 during their senior year is no different than a using shaved bat or a pitcher doctoring a baseball....It's done purely to have an advantage. 

What if a kid turns nineteen senior year because he wasn’t emotionally ready to start kindergarten at five years ago?

I never though about my son graduating at seventeen competing against nineteen year old seniors.  It didn’t stop him in sports. It was irrelevant in the classroom where it matters in the long run. 

I was amused looking at the difference between my son and other basketball players, a year and a half older freshman year. The bigs were giants compared to my son. He still started at point. 

CatcherDadNY posted:

Its a scam petpetrated by wealthy parents who are afraid to have their boy compete against those on their proper level..they take their kid out of the public system after 8th grade and find a catholic school that will accept a year's tuition so they can repeat 8th grade..from there they go to private HS a year older than their classmates..it's  been going here in NY/NJ for quite a while..should not be allowed in my opinion.

I'm against reclassing as much as the next but I think this is a pretty extreme way to look at things. The wealthy statement doesn't work as often times those reclassing are coming from poor families, taking a year of free/low tuition at a private school and then going to a powerhouse high school to play football or basketball. 

I also understand it for those with August/September birthday who want to stay back. There are parents who don't want their kids leaving for college at 17. I don't necessarily blame them. 

It's not an extreme viewpoint when you see it going on so blatantly in my area of NY/NJ...if it were disadvantaged kids doing I might feel differently but it's the well off that are doing it..it didnt help some of them as they didn't get recruited anyway..

Actually had a parent-teacher conference the other night when I received a resume on a student at the end of the 5 minute conference. Father was considering kid repeating a grade to reclass- he is currently a HS sophomore. Student receiving a B in an honors class with me, no slouch. Father mentioned son is young for his age, has a December birthday. Apparently he has been hearing about needs to improve strength. Was MVP on Frosh team last year and stands 5'10" 165 as a 3B/SS. I was thinking, my son graduated from HS as 5'10" 142 lb MI (Though he now weighs about 178 as SR in college.) I think with this father it was a case of reading about all the early commits, and feeling the need to slow down the timetable. I think my 2015 benefited from playing up  sometimes with kids 3 years older; he knew the arm strength would improve by getting older and working out. I also did the same thing as another poster above did--looking at the players rated above my son in our state--more than 1/2 were a year older. I teach at a hockey powerhouse HS, where a PG year after HS is a given. I hate to see this be the norm in baseball as well.

CatcherDadNY posted:

It's not an extreme viewpoint when you see it going on so blatantly in my area of NY/NJ...if it were disadvantaged kids doing I might feel differently but it's the well off that are doing it..it didnt help some of them as they didn't get recruited anyway..

It is an extreme viewpoint when you claim it is a scam created by the wealthy because they are afraid their son won't compete. As if there aren't kids from poor communities doing it. Those from wealthy backgrounds are typically more worried about the academic side of school rather than tacking on another year to try and get an offer to begin with. 

I acknowledge that the disadvantaged do it also..that's fair enough but you need to acknowledge what the well off are doing as well..that's simply the reality...the ones that I know are doing it are repeating 8th grade and academics are not the reason...strictly for an athletic advantage.it's been part of their plan for years and there are catholic schools that are delighted to take their tuition to repeat 8th grade..smarten up.

Remember that dad who told me about the kid who quit the HS team? That same day he told me a story about another kid we know - who is a very good player.

Kid is about 5 months older than my 2022. Kid is turning 15 in about a month. His dad has now reclassified him, pulling him from school and sending him to a ritzy private school to repeat the 8th grade. Now the kid will be a 2023 and 16 when he plays freshmen baseball.

The kickers, PER THE GUY TELLING ME THE STORY: The kid is brilliant, currently capable of handling HS junior honors math and now he's bored in his 8th grade classes. And, it's not about trying to get a scholarship because the dad has a net worth of "about $20 million dollars" (again, per the guy telling me the story). 

It's all about positioning the kid so that he will be one of the best players on the team.

You got that right Francis7.

My son’s birthday is 8 days before the cutoff. I held him and have zero regrets. That said, he will turn 18 the week his senior year starts.  

my 2020 is a sept birthday, and my 2022 is a 2022. They will both graduate HS at 17, and the 2020 will start college still being 17. Also in NY as some others here. My kids pester me all the time that I should have started them in school a year later after looking at PG rankings..

I look at it like this, if being born a few weeks later would have made him one of the older ones in the class and I can keep him from being the youngest, I will.  My son wouldn’t have sucked or not been able to cut it if he was the youngest, but he is in a better position because we held him,  Now months...my other son’s birthday is mid school year and I didn’t consider holding him back.

Looking at some PG rankings. My 2020 (Sept bday) (RH PO) is in 83% (85mph) for velocity. If he were a 2021 he would be over 90%. Similar jumps for my 2022 as well. In the grand scheme of things I'm not sure how much it'll matter.

nycdad posted:

Looking at some PG rankings. My 2020 (Sept bday) (RH PO) is in 83% (85mph) for velocity. If he were a 2021 he would be over 90%. Similar jumps for my 2022 as well. In the grand scheme of things I'm not sure how much it'll matter.

 

I guess it depends how much growing he has left. My son is a 2020 and is 98%, if he was a 2019 he would be 94.5%.   He has put on 27lvs since the end of summer.  If  he was a senior, it would almost be too late to have the growth matter in terms of recruiting.

I'm not referring to boys that are a week or two from the cutoff..My point is about kids who are purposely repeating 8th grade for no other reason  than a supposed athletic advantage...sometimes it works out for them and when it doesn't the other boys on the team rightly take satisfaction in their getting recruited on the merits..a good lesson learned early in life.

I am going to play a little devil's advocate here and say some of the most important attributes are performance and performance against strong competition. My son's team has and continues to recruit players who are all over the map in terms of age, height, weight, etc. The one thing that most of them have in common is an outstanding track record in terms of performance. There are exceptions but they tend to be for pitchers who can throw the snot out of a baseball!

2True posted:

For position players, are there specific attributes that make a player's body  more projectable?

Is it all about what height and weight they look like they'll end up?  Or, is there more to it than that? Is there a body type or certain proportions that they like?  Anything specific other than height and weight and, if so, what?

I've looked and can't find much info on this. Just curious about how it all works.

 

 

 

 

 

For college not really a perfect body type  for position players.  Except F2 and F6  the bat is the driving force.   your position can and will change as you move through the levels of amateur ball.  Past the bat is the glove and then arm. whether youare 5'11 or 6'2 does not matter... footwork, glove work and skill trump  

bacdorslider posted:

2True posted:

For position players, are there specific attributes that make a player's body  more projectable?

Is it all about what height and weight they look like they'll end up?  Or, is there more to it than that? Is there a body type or certain proportions that they like?  Anything specific other than height and weight and, if so, what?

I've looked and can't find much info on this. Just curious about how it all works.

 

 

 

 

 

For college not really a perfect body type  for position players.  Except F2 and F6  the bat is the driving force.   your position can and will change as you move through the levels of amateur ball.  Past the bat is the glove and then arm. whether youare 5'11 or 6'2 does not matter... footwork, glove work and skill trump  

While you may be right, I don't think you're addressing the OP's question.  We all see those scouting reports that describe a kid's body frame and talk about whether he is projectable in terms of growth and strength.  I think what 2True was asking was how specifically do scouts make that determination.  What attributes of the kid's body are they looking at to forecast his future?

My kid on numerous occasions verbally fantasized his reclass one (2023) or even 2 years (2024) as he is a Nov bday. It became a little more frequent when a couple of his former teammates went that route. The PG metrics display of top grad years definitely stirs the pot imo, not blaming them as it is part of the recruitment biz. It is kinda funny that colleges want older prospects but pros want younger ones (e.g., Beltre)