Bottom feeder D1 versus ranked D3

I don't know. I do know that there are definitely D1 talents in D3. Either late bloomers, ones who were injured during recruiting in HS, or ones who are happy at their D3 over some random D1. Usually the issue is depth for a D3, but you could say the same thing about a bottom feeder D1.

I think it depends on the years.  It comes down to pitching.  We've all seen D3 Pitchers who have become successful MLB Pitchers or at least have been successful up through AA or AAA in the minors.  I don't know how frequently a D3 team has 2 or even 3 of those guys at one time, but if they did they could dominate bottom feeder D1 teams.

I think the Top 4 teams in a season's D3 Championships would likely beat a Bottom Feeder D1 team.   And it goes beyond just talent levels: when you have a culture of winning vs a culture of losing on teams, that can add to an edge, plus the D3 kids might play with a chip in their shoulder wanting to prove they could hang, whereas the Bottom Feeder D1 might playing trying not to lose etc etc

I agree with 3and2 as it depends on the year and the teams. My son played on a D3 national championship team and I only have one vs D1 data point as they went up and played OU (they were around a 50ish  ranked team at the time) for one game in the fall and that year we had 6 pitchers throwing in the 90's, abet mostly low 90's except for one. (he was drafted) The TU pitchers were generally sitting 90-91 while the OU pitchers were sitting 94-95. We lost 8-5 but we were in the game the whole time and the best position player for both teams was a D3 kid. That D3 team was extremely deep in pitching and most top D3's typically have 3-4 pitchers that would compete at the D1 level and as others have pointed out are typically are late bloomers. 

The prototypical top D3 typically has 2 top starting pitchers with 1-2 top closers and this allows them to get through most 3 game series and win them. If they get too deep into the bullpen then all bets are off. So my belief is that the top D3's could hang with middle of the road D1 teams for 2 games, beyond this fo-get-about-it. As far as lower level D1's I really don't know as there are none in CA and Texas that I have been exposed to. 

I say this a lot but for a player thinking about where to play it is a heck of a lot more fun playing for a winning program that is going to conference championships, regionals and with some luck the CWS than being a bottom feeding D1. Thinking about it I guess that lower level D1's probably are similar as far as pitching depth as D3's and they likely pick up local kids who don't want to move too far from their home base and maybe state/local 

Just my observations and 2 cents. 

I’ve had the conversation regarding one game of a national champion D3 versus a mid level D1/Ivy having a rough season. The D3 champion was Trinity (CT). The guy I was talking with was friends with the Trinity coach. 

Harvard had opened the season playing a lot of ranked teams on the road. They started about 0-18. The guy’s son played for Harvard. He asked the Trinity coach if he thought he could beat Harvard. The coach said with his 24th round draft pick stud pitcher (who made it to AAA) they would be in the game. After that, probably not. Ironically, the Trinity coach became the Harvard coach.  

But the Ivies are a middle of the pack D1 conference. I’m asking about a 29/30 out of 30 D1 conference versus a top D3. It seems BOF’s son’s team had the quantity of quality that has me wondering what would happen. I’ve seen lower level mid majors with a bunch of pitchers in the mid 80’s.

The reason I ask is I know D3 players who could have played at mid majors. I believe they might have starred on a team in a D1 bottom feeder conference. I looked at a lot of the profiles on the team the kid I know of plays. Profiles tend to be embellished. The profiles were not very impressive.

BOF posted:

 I say this a lot but for a player thinking about where to play it is a heck of a lot more fun playing for a winning program that is going to conference championships, regionals and with some luck the CWS than being a bottom feeding D1.

Agreed.   There are other factors to be considered, of course, but all things being equal I agree.

Other factors could include:

$$$ - of course not all D3's are super expensive, and a 25% Scholarship with out of state tuition could still leave you paying out $30,000 per year at a D1

Playing Time: it might actually be easier getting on the field as a Freshman or Sophomore at a Bottom Feeder D1 than at a potential National Champion D3.  Of course you gotta figure that, even if you are playing every inning and playing well individually, it can be really rough losing most of the time, with the coaching staff all stressed out and potentially getting fired, tons of turnover among teammates etc

Some of the strongest D3 teams could absolutely beat some of the weakest D1s. But there are a very short list of both types of those schools. If those weak D1s stopped seeing 90+ for a weekend and saw 90, 85, 82 - they could very easily have a field day. 

What conferences would you all consider the weakest?  I've been keeping track of Northern Illinois, who was just 4-16 prior but just swept Eastern Michigan to improve their record to 7-16, while E. Michigan is now 3-19-1!!!!

however I tend to think of the MAC Conference as pretty solidly mid major

3and2Fastball posted:

What conferences would you all consider the weakest?  I've been keeping track of Northern Illinois, who was just 4-16 prior but just swept Eastern Michigan to improve their record to 7-16, while E. Michigan is now 3-19-1!!!!

however I tend to think of the MAC Conference as pretty solidly mid major

Link to conference strength currently through Sunday's games:

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/conferencerpi

MAC is ranked 23rd of 31 total D1 conferences.

I used Boyd’s to see where the conference in question is ranked. They’re historically down there.

Ah, the old hypothetical bottom feeding D1 vs the ranked D3 question.  Must be a slow Monday.

I wish there were more D1 teams that would take this on, because I'd really like to see it.  Say, playing some local midweek games against the local or regional ranked D3s.  I just have not seen enough of it.  I do recall a few years ago Amherst beat Dartmouth but that was just one mid-week game.  The problem is that it has to be a real honest to goodness series for true bragging rights and nobody has the time or resources to play a mid-week, out of division series in a short college season.   The other thing is the D1 school is just not that movitated to pitch their best during the mid-week as they are resting them for the weekend conference games.   Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it but I just don't think we will unless it is at the very beginning of the season (February) or after the season is over as some practice games waiting for the NCAA regionals to start.  

I'm a big believer in "anybody can beat anybody with the right motivation".  I played D2 college tennis and we had more than our share of D1 wins.   We were extremely motivated because my college coach would make sure to schedule these every year.   That date was circled on our calendars and he got us ready.  It became his recruiting tool for the next class.   I can't say our D1 opponents were initially that concerned or motivated until the following year when they had an opportunity to make it right in their minds. 

What started my thought process was tracking a kid in a bottom feeder D1 conference. When I noticed all the teams were 5-10 or worse leading into conference play I started wondering how bad these teams are. I started wondering if a Trinity, Linfield, Salisbury, Southern Maine, etc. perennially ranked D3 teams could compete to, say, an 8-12 in conference record. 

The kid I’m tracking doesn’t play much as a freshman. But in high school I was not impressed he had any chance at all of playing D1 ball. The bat speed and arm just aren’t there. As I started reading player profiles from the roster I’ve seen more impressive profiles on top D3 rosters. 

I know logically there’s a reason why players are in D1 and others are in D3. But even within each college classification there’s such a range of talent and ability. 

If we were to compare D2 to D1 there’s no doubt in my mind a typical D2  U Tampa team would kick the crap out of bottom feeder D1’s. Tampa often  gets a lot of P5 transfers. 

Top D2's.  No doubt.

Top JUCO's would also beat the worst D1 teams, too.  San Jacinto, Iowa Western, John A Logan etc... Those types of JUCO's would beat up on a lot of D1's

So those bottom feeder D1s are right in my 2020's wheelhouse. In particular those in the northeast. For him, some are also schools where he'd go to even if not for baseball. The other thing is for the most part even the worst of the D1s that he's visited have had better facilities, and support services (tutoring, etc if needed) then the D3s. Again, just basing this on the limited number in the northeast he's seen.

MidAtlanticDad posted:

I think Bradley is a pretty middle of the road D1 this year, and they played two D3 teams in Florida last week. They beat up Keystone 18-1. Keystone is usually pretty strong, but so far they're just middle of the road D3 this year. Bradley beat Rowan 3-0. I expect Rowan to make it to the D3 CWS this year. Their pitching staff is one of the best in D3, and their offense is solid. Looks like both teams started their aces. Serreino went 7 innings for Rowan (3 H, 0 R), while Janssen went 3 innings for Bradley and didn't give up a hit. Like we all know, just one game but it's not meaningless.

As far as the bottom tier D1 teams, I have three MEAC teams near me. IMO, they would be competing with the better D3 teams in this area (Rowan, Salisbury, Hopkins, Christopher Newport) for a trip to the D3 Regionals. Not appreciably better or worse. MEAC teams don't have any more depth than the better D3s (i.e. neither group has much depth).

As far as making the choice to go that route, I can tell you with the local kids here it's 80% "I play D1", 10% they haven't looked at any other options, and 10% financial. With 25% baseball money, other types of financial aid, and commuting, those schools can be much less expensive than a public D3.

Rowan has very good pitching, they don't hit much. Last year with the same pitching staff they didn't make it, I think it is a major reach to think you "expect them to make it" but I do a agree they are going to be a very tough out. 

The talent from team to team in D3 at the top levels is very similar when you watch the games. Typically it comes down to execution more then talent IMO. I learned how competitive D3 is last year watching the NCAA regionals, Rowen went 2-2 and dodged several bullets to not be 1-2 just to give you an example. 

The biggest difference I see is foot speed up an down the lineup and size. Even the lower level D1's are a bit bigger and faster. Obviously the pitching depth is also very relevant - there is a big difference IMO from competing which I believe good D3 teams can do and winning which I think very few could do. 

We have 2 ranked D3's near us.  I know quite a few kids from each team from my son's year of travel and also just knowing quite a bit about them from HS.  Son's team is playing the best they've played since he's been there right now....both offensively and defensively.  I don't see either of the D3's beating them the way they are playing right now.  Now last year....different story, I think the games would have been awfully tight.

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

We have 2 ranked D3's near us.  I know quite a few kids from each team from my son's year of travel and also just knowing quite a bit about them from HS.  Son's team is playing the best they've played since he's been there right now....both offensively and defensively.  I don't see either of the D3's beating them the way they are playing right now.  Now last year....different story, I think the games would have been awfully tight.

I know the league you are referring to, we played several of the those teams over the last 2 years and you are spot on. That is a good league, they are talented and play tight. I think they can and others like them could steal some games here there but not a be a steady winner. 

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

Velo is the most overhyped, misused and just flat lied about term in baseball IMO. That being said the pitching at low level D1's is still better and deeper then any D3 I have seen. The one exception is Rowan the top 3 they have are kinf of like unicorn. I have seen nobody including several teams that went to D3 WS last year who can match the top 3 there...but they didn't execute real well last year and don't hit a whole lot but the top 3 pitchers are legit. 

Even with Rowan top end strength the bullpen is not special and that creates the depth difference. 

My son's team has one guy throwing 91-92.  Son was at that, but hasn't thrown this year due to an arm issue.  The other guys are 85-86...topping out at 88.  Our most effective lefty is 77-78 with a curve ball that is in the low-mid 60's.    We played a team a couple weeks ago....albeit on a weekday.  5 pitchers.  Highest topped out at 84.   I'm willing to be we haven't seen more than 3 or 4 guys at 90 in 19 games.  We aren't playing the Top 25 type teams, but most guys have been 86-88.  

The Big West usually has some very strong teams, but it also has one team that I believe would have difficulty winning a series against some members of the nearby SCIAC conference. 

Not that they are a "Bottom Feeder", in fact they are really good, but Indiana State just beat #25 Illinois tonight to improve to 20-2 on the season.  I guess I love it when a Mid Major beats a Power Five school.   I'm going to guess that not all of the Indiana State roster was as highly recruited as the Illinois players.

I'll be fascinated to watch next month when Indiana State travels to Vanderbilt for a mid week game.

Not really related to the original topic in this thread, but something I felt like commenting on that maybe didn't need it's own thread.... (!)

Indiana State is very far from a bottom feeder. They beat P5’s almost every year. They’re playing .580 ball over the past five years. They’re currently #15 in RPI. If the season ended today they would be hosting a first round. 

JCG posted:

The Big West usually has some very strong teams, but it also has one team that I believe would have difficulty winning a series against some members of the nearby SCIAC conference. 

I strongly disagree. I know there are a few schools in that conferences that aren't exactly powerhouses, but you put any of those teams in a weaker conference and they finish near the top or at least in the middle. I don't think a D3 could touch any of them, even with a stud pitcher. 

3and2Fastball posted:

Top D2's.  No doubt.

Top JUCO's would also beat the worst D1 teams, too.  San Jacinto, Iowa Western, John A Logan etc... Those types of JUCO's would beat up on a lot of D1's

Top jucos are a completely different animal.  Many D1 types go there for all sorts of reasons including the draft.  But like someone else said that's a short list of jucos.  Most jucos would get absolutely smoked.  

We are pretty much out of the baseball thing.  Though he still plays football has taken front seat.  So just to give you a perspective in that I can tell you the size of these kids is directly correlated to the level they play.  He is not a Big Ten caliber so we have not seen that.  But we have been on visits ranging from the MAC, Top level FCS, mid level FCS and D2.  We have not been to a lower level FCS so I guess I can't speak for the true bottom level D1's.  But looking at Linemen from the levels we have been at they are all around 300 lbs.  just as the level gets lower the fat percentage goes up.  The other thing is power five gets the 6'7" and 6'8" Linemen.  Still I think bottom level D1 would smoke even the best D3's in football.  Different game of course.  And $ makes it different.  We live in Wisconsin an hour away from whitewater one of the best D3's nationally.  But if a bottom level D1 cam and told us his education would be 100% free...  honestly I dont car how bad they are.  We do not have the financial luxury to say no.  And I think in football a lot of folks are like that.  In baseball there are a lot more folks with money plus unfortunately there ain't a lot of scholarship money to be had anyway.  I think this is why lower level baseball can sometimes attract better players where lower level football can not.  

This may sound harsh, but in my first 9 D3 baseball games I'm seeing mediocre play with maybe two good position players on each team, and one solid P throwing above 85 every other team.  The only good D3 catcher I've seen was from sons club team, otherwise lots of passed balls, hardly any catchers throwing guys out, lots of stolen bases, maybe two solid hitters per team.  Sons club team as 17U's would kill these guys.

Gov posted:

This may sound harsh, but in my first 9 D3 baseball games I'm seeing mediocre play with maybe two good position players on each team, and one solid P throwing above 85 every other team.  The only good D3 catcher I've seen was from sons club team, otherwise lots of passed balls, hardly any catchers throwing guys out, lots of stolen bases, maybe two solid hitters per team.  Sons club team as 17U's would kill these guys.

 

 

But are you seeing top ranked D3's playing their top guys, or middle to bottom of the pack D3's? There is a yawning gulf between, say, one of the WI D3's/ St. Thomas(MN) and Carleton. The latter is a great school, but our HS could probably beat them. 

   Just like there is a drastic difference between a top ranked D1 and a bottom 20 D1, there is the same difference between a top 10 D3 and a bottom 10.

57special posted:

Gov posted:

This may sound harsh, but in my first 9 D3 baseball games I'm seeing mediocre play with maybe two good position players on each team, and one solid P throwing above 85 every other team.  The only good D3 catcher I've seen was from sons club team, otherwise lots of passed balls, hardly any catchers throwing guys out, lots of stolen bases, maybe two solid hitters per team.  Sons club team as 17U's would kill these guys.

 

 

But are you seeing top ranked D3's playing their top guys, or middle to bottom of the pack D3's? There is a yawning gulf between, say, one of the WI D3's/ St. Thomas(MN) and Carleton. The latter is a great school, but our HS could probably beat them. 

   Just like there is a drastic difference between a top ranked D1 and a bottom 20 D1, there is the same difference between a top 10 D3 and a bottom 10.

  

Fair point... but did see and son played WI Whitewater the other day, lost on walkoff.  But they don’t look anything like their rating from last year.  Out of the 9, probably  3 were decent. They were playing their best position guys, maybe didn’t see “all” the teams top P’s.  

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

baseballhs posted:

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

I've lost count of the number of times I've watched a college game on tv/stream and compared the broadcast velo to the pitcher's PG profile, and found the pitcher's FB is sitting at or under his PG best. Sometimes 3-4 years later. It happened during the Alabama-Auburn game the other night. Different guns? Sitting vs max effort? No gains in college? I don't know, but I see it all the time.

baseballhs posted:

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

I think the - you have to throw 90 - thing is a little blown out of the water, but I agree that all the kids committing now are throwing harder than they ever have. 6/7 years ago when the current college upperclassmen were committing, 90 was still somewhat of a big deal. 90 doesn't even get you draft consideration unless you have plus pitches to go with it. 

I think the biggest difference in regards to velo at the college level is the ability to maintain it. Sometimes I see a P5 starter throwing 88 in the first, but he's still throwing 87 in the 6th and can pump 90 when they need to get outs. More stamina, still something left in the tank. 

When I think of D1 rosters I think every guy is 86+ (usually the case). When I watch D3 games I think that they maybe have one or two guys over that barrier with more 80-82 guys than 85+ guys. Which is why it would take a stellar D3 team with plenty of live arms to take out even a weak D1. 

Which is why it would take a stellar D3 team with plenty of live arms to take out even a weak D1. 

This is where my thought process came from that started this thread. A friend’s son played for a D3 national champion. Three pitchers of varying classes threw 90 and were drafted. One made it to AAA. The catcher made it to AA. The first baseman was also drafted.

Then I see a kid I feel is no way a D1 prospect rostered on a bottom feeder conference D1. I’m not sure he’s good enough to start as a freshman at Southern Maine (a typically ranked D3). I looked at their schedule to discover everyone they beat was also 5-10 or worse. They were starting conference play. The entire conference was 5-10 or worse. His team is now 3-0 in conference play. I’d hate to see the worst team in the conference.

I typically only see Tufts or Southern Maine play D3 ball. I was wondering if that one national championship team was unique or are other top ranked D3’s good enough to compete (say 8-12) in a bottom feeder D1 conference. 

In any one game anything can happen.  

RJM posted:

Which is why it would take a stellar D3 team with plenty of live arms to take out even a weak D1. 

This is where my thought process came from that started this thread. A friend’s son played for a D3 national champion. Three pitchers of varying classes threw 90 and were drafted. One made it to AAA. The catcher made it to AA. The first baseman was also drafted.

Then I see a kid I feel is no way a D1 prospect rostered on a bottom feeder conference D1. I’m not sure he’s good enough to start as a freshman at Southern Maine (a typically ranked D3). I looked at their schedule to discover everyone they beat was also 5-10 or worse. They were starting conference play. The entire conference was 5-10 or worse. His team is now 3-0 in conference play. I’d hate to see the worst team in the conference.

I typically only see Tufts or Southern Maine play D3 ball. I was wondering if that one national championship team was unique or are other top ranked D3’s good enough to compete (say 8-12) in a bottom feeder D1 conference. 

In any one game anything can happen.  

RJ, I had no real clue until seeing these first games. Son played well today w a team W, playing Tufts in 2-3 weeks, maybe see you there...

baseballhs posted:

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

Amen to that.  Sons best friend topping 92.  No offers.  Some lookers.  I am sure he will get a deal but just a few years back 92 would have been slam dunk SEC.  So glad son got out of the arms race and focused on football.  Still succeeds on the mound but could never have gotten velo required today.  Would have been D3 for sure.  In football he's got at least a 50/50 shot, being conservative, at D1 and if not there are D2's who will still make it free.  Baseball would have been completely on our dime.  

MidAtlanticDad posted:

baseballhs posted:

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

I've lost count of the number of times I've watched a college game on tv/stream and compared the broadcast velo to the pitcher's PG profile, and found the pitcher's FB is sitting at or under his PG best. Sometimes 3-4 years later. It happened during the Alabama-Auburn game the other night. Different guns? Sitting vs max effort? No gains in college? I don't know, but I see it all the time.

All it takes is one pitch at a particular number, and that goes up on the profile.  Doesn't matter if it was 3 feet out of the strike zone.  Pitching in games is different.

Gov posted:

RJM posted:

Which is why it would take a stellar D3 team with plenty of live arms to take out even a weak D1. 

This is where my thought process came from that started this thread. A friend’s son played for a D3 national champion. Three pitchers of varying classes threw 90 and were drafted. One made it to AAA. The catcher made it to AA. The first baseman was also drafted.

Then I see a kid I feel is no way a D1 prospect rostered on a bottom feeder conference D1. I’m not sure he’s good enough to start as a freshman at Southern Maine (a typically ranked D3). I looked at their schedule to discover everyone they beat was also 5-10 or worse. They were starting conference play. The entire conference was 5-10 or worse. His team is now 3-0 in conference play. I’d hate to see the worst team in the conference.

I typically only see Tufts or Southern Maine play D3 ball. I was wondering if that one national championship team was unique or are other top ranked D3’s good enough to compete (say 8-12) in a bottom feeder D1 conference. 

In any one game anything can happen.  

RJ, I had no real clue until seeing these first games. Son played well today w a team W, playing Tufts in 2-3 weeks, maybe see you there...

My son, his friends and all of my riend’s son’s are in the real world now. I haven’t been to a Tufts game for a couple of years now. When I get to games it’s BC games in Boston and Southern Maine games when I’m in Maine. When I was full time in MA if I wasn’t traveling to see my son and BC was out of town I went to Tufts games. I knew a few player’s dads.

Speaking of the real world at Thanksgiving my son commented it used to be fun to be asked his teams in high school and college. He said now he’s as boring as the rest of us. 

3and2Fastball posted:

MidAtlanticDad posted:

baseballhs posted:

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

I've lost count of the number of times I've watched a college game on tv/stream and compared the broadcast velo to the pitcher's PG profile, and found the pitcher's FB is sitting at or under his PG best. Sometimes 3-4 years later. It happened during the Alabama-Auburn game the other night. Different guns? Sitting vs max effort? No gains in college? I don't know, but I see it all the time.

All it takes is one pitch at a particular number, and that goes up on the profile.  Doesn't matter if it was 3 feet out of the strike zone.  Pitching in games is different.

The other thing I see is the highly ranked guy at 15-17 who hits a high velo(which sits on his profile forever), but starts to lose velo, ending up as a Red shirt in college, or simply not having a D1 dance partner as a HS senior, after being a "big deal" as a underclassmen.

   The opposite can be true in D3. The tall, dorky guy who arrives throwing 81mph, then is throwing 88-90 as a Junior or senior. Humans come in all shapes and sizes, and we all mature at different times. The 6'4" , 84 mph flamethrower who scared the crap out my kid as a 14yo is now a virtual nobody at 20yo, and throwing...84. 

 The scary thing about pitching and pitchers, is that they are often treated as disposable by colleges. That's why I insist that both my boys continue to play the field as long as possible, and  that they KEEP UP WITH THE SCHOOLWORK!!!

2020dad posted:

baseballhs posted:

Hammer823 posted:

I think people overestimate the pitching velocity of D1 baseball.  There are some mid-low level D1 schools close to me and they maybe have 1-2 pitchers touching 90.  I'm friends with an AC at one, and he says the same about his team.   Most of the staff is sitting in the mid eighties.  Even watching the College World Series, there were many more pitchers that were mid to upper 80's than 90 plus.  I also go to Cape League games each summer, sitting next to MLB scouts, and there are way more guys in the mid to upper 80's than in the 90's.  The scouts have told me that a very large number of guys sitting 90 plus get drafted right out of high school, skipping college ball.  They said that's even more true of 93 plus.

I just don't see that.  Summer after sophomore year, almost every pitcher I saw commit was touching 90 or higher.  I assume if they are throwing 90+ as sophomores they will be at least a mile or two higher by graduation. We have 3 on our hs team that throw between 90-94.  We have lefties throwing 84-85 with no offers.  I think in the last several years, there are just a larger number of kids throwing really hard.

Amen to that.  Sons best friend topping 92.  No offers.  Some lookers.  I am sure he will get a deal but just a few years back 92 would have been slam dunk SEC.  So glad son got out of the arms race and focused on football.  Still succeeds on the mound but could never have gotten velo required today.  Would have been D3 for sure.  In football he's got at least a 50/50 shot, being conservative, at D1 and if not there are D2's who will still make it free.  Baseball would have been completely on our dime.  

Your sons friend at 92 is a junior?  He will get a lot of attention this summer.  

A current junior throwing 92 with no offers?   Can at he at least throw it where the catcher can catch it 2 out of 5 times?