Chances of Making the Show!

Round 1: 66% 20 players
Round 2: 49% 15 players
Round 3-5: 32% 30 players
Round 6-10: 20% 30 players
Round 11-20: 11% 30 players
Round 21 : 7%

Total 125 players

That would mean every year we would statistically have to see 125 players break into the majors, which I don’t believe happens. PGStaff or one of the statistics guys will tell us the real story.

30 teams total. On average 4.2 new players brought up each year per team. This seems to be within reasonable limits to me. A lot of players don't 'stick' or are brought up only in September. Look at all of the major leaguers that have 30 or less at bats for their career, or pitchers with less than 100 innings. Bring up 2, send them down, and then bring up 2 more.

For what it is worth, the SF Giants had 16 players make their major league debut last year. Yes, it was a franchise record!!!

BillBill hit it on the head....the many of the ones that "make it" don't stick and bounce back a forth a couple of times, once you run out of options you have a couple of bounces and then - bye bye.

A thread which ran last December has some additional information. The whole thread is interesting, but page 2 has a couple of posts which give relevant numbers. The upshot is that there were 139 players signed out of the 1998 draft. The 2002 draft is looked also, and it appears that it too will eventually exceed 125 players.

http://hsbaseballweb.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/2206002781/m/4641013903/p/1

3FG - Thanks for reminding me about that thread. There is some very good info there.

The thing about the percentages we are looking at here that caught my eye, had to do with the number of players that made it to the MLB out of the first three rounds. The percentages looked pretty high to me. If you run the numbers on PG's post from the December thread the the percentages get out of sync pretty quickly. When compared to these numbers. Like from the 1st round on. I wonder if any correlation can really be made about the success of the draft or are there too many variables from year to year.