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You can tell to some degree by how personalized the invitation is. The more personalized, the more likely they have genuine interest. If you are uncertain, call or e-mail the coach and see what kind of response you get.
This is good advice. Make the call. When my son was in the process he got many invites. He or I called each one and asked if they had a committment from his class at his position and if they were still recruiting for his position and grad year. In several instances they were very honest and admitted they were done recruiting for the position that particular grad year and "if we think we may need that position we wont pick one up till the spring or summer".
Some other advice is to attend camps that have more than one school working the camp. Many college camps are run by the big Div 1 school but they invite several other div 1, 2, 3, Naia and JC school coaches to work, recruit and evaluate.
ABD Acamedy out here in So Cal runs a fantastic college camp in that upwards of 20 college recruiting coordinators come out and work it. That is the kind of camp you really want. (imo)