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@fenwaysouth posted:

Yes, I noticed that as well.  I'd move the HS bar down quite a bit more.  Remember 6% of HS players make it to the college level, and most college players have the benefit of year round workout, nutrition programs as well as practices. It would take an very elite HS to beat a college team, IMHO.

PS.....Great idea & graphic adbono

Fair point about the HS bar. It’s the hardest one to get right. The very best HS teams could beat a bad college team on any given day - and the very best HS players are selected in the MLB draft. The reverse is true as well. The really bad HS teams are so bad that they would lose to a good 14U travel ball team. The talent range in HS equals a bar as long as the Grand Canyon is wide.

As I mentioned when I posted the graph, while I agree with most of it, it’s not my creation. I saw it somewhere: Twitter, Collegiate Baseball, Inside Pitch or somewhere else like that. When I couldn’t find it again I recreated it from memory. In doing so I probably made unintentional changes that aren’t very significant. There is a lot of stuff you could pick at if you are so inclined. For example, I don’t believe all D1 P5s are better than the top 35 D1 mid majors. In fact, I know they aren’t. There just isn’t any way to address every situation. In general I think it’s a pretty good broad brush comparison. I apologize for the suspect artwork but if I did it on Excel I would still be working on it.

@adbono posted:

As I mentioned when I posted the graph, while I agree with most of it, it’s not my creation. I saw it somewhere: Twitter, Collegiate Baseball, Inside Pitch or somewhere else like that. When I couldn’t find it again I recreated it from memory. In doing so I probably made unintentional changes that aren’t very significant. There is a lot of stuff you could pick at if you are so inclined. For example, I don’t believe all D1 P5s are better than the top 35 D1 mid majors. In fact, I know they aren’t. There just isn’t any way to address every situation. In general I think it’s a pretty good broad brush comparison. I apologize for the suspect artwork but if I did it on Excel I would still be working on it.

I bet one of the kids in your company can make the graph for you in about 10 minutes.

@fenwaysouth posted:

Yes, I noticed that as well.  I'd move the HS bar down quite a bit more.  Remember 6% of HS players make it to the college level, and most college players have the benefit of year round workout, nutrition programs as well as practices. It would take an very elite HS to beat a college team, IMHO.

PS.....Great idea & graphic adbono

Agreed, I just had a photo pop-up in my Google photos of my son being player of the week in the Marietta Daily Journal for Baseball. it was a result of him one hitting Lambert, who was the number one HS team in the country at the time. he struck out 11 in a complete game win and K’d the side three times, the last time being in the seventh and final inning. Their only hit was a blip behind short into shallow LF at the and he promptly picked the guy off at first, otherwise he would’ve thrown a no no.

IMHO, even the very best HS teams will have to play a flawless game vs any avg college team to beat them.

baseball is hard and there are so many levels for kids to play, improve and compete....I’d like to believe it’s popularity will rise and more kids will continue to play.

+1 to AdBono for the art project

I have some anecdotal observations that may be relevant in this thread related to the overlapping talent, specifically between D1 and D2. My son was a part of two college baseball programs - Mercer University, D1, Southern Conference and Georgia College D2, Peach Belt Conference. I'd say Mercer is a solid to very good mid major. They have several wins over ACC and SEC schools - beat Florida a couple years ago when UF was #1, Mercer had Kyle Lewis the Golden Spikes winner and AL Rookie of the Year, and probably  average having 2 or 3 guys drafted a year. Georgia College is a good D2 baseball school that is pretty regularly nationally ranked, beat #1 Tampa U last year, and probably averages about 1 guy a year drafted.

Some generalizations based on being familiar with the programs for several years. Georgia College has had many position players that could have started or gotten regular playing time at Mercer. Some years as many as 3 or 4 GC position players were as good or better than Mercer starters. Most of the Mercer starting position players would start or play regularly at GC. In general the position players who do not start regularly at Mercer are measurably more talented than the position players who do not start at GC. In any given year GC would likely have three or four pitchers who could get significant innings at Mercer. It would be unlikely that any of them would be in the top 2 on the staff. Very close to all of the pitchers at Mercer would be able to contribute significantly if they were at GC and multiple guys would be considered an ace or top of the staff guys. 

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