Colonial District Predictions

It will take Lees being the POY and Marano being COY for Godwin to take.....I think.

I dont remember all, but I think they lost last years starting catcher (Moore), 3B (Payne - USC), SS (name escapes me but he went to JMU), RF (Barker). Didn't they lose their starting 1B too? Who played CF?

They do have some good young kids including LHP Basso.

You prediction is as strong as anyones right now though. Lots of question marks around that district. Deep Run is young but talented. DSF has major vacancies to fill. I would not fall asleep on Tucker or Hermitage this year.

I dont know who will finish on top, but I predict that the Herm boys will give people fits all year. 2 LHP and lots of athletes with speed. Spoiler or contender, who knows?

I cant wait to see some games!

Rich Prado
www.playinschool.com

Agree with PIS about Hermitage. I predicted them to be a sleeper last year, and I'll stay with that prediction this year. If I had to pick, I would probably take Deep Run. Those guys are loaded with talent. They may be a year away from a run into the state playoffs, but I think this may be the year where they announce their presence with authority.

To me this year shapes up as a very even year across the board in the Colonial and in the Central Region as well. Godwin lost a lot of talent as did Freeman.

I like Hermitage's lefties, Burnett and Rooker. But they're a year away from their best players peaking on the one hand, while on the back end their feeder pipeline is being siphoned off to the new high school. I think their pitching will allow some upsets, but I don't see them winning consistently in district play against teams like Deep Run or Godwin.

To me it looks like a year of haves and have-nots, as opposed to one with neck-and-neck competition. Godwin, Deep Run, Freeman, and after that a big drop off. Hermitage and Tucker I see as respectable but not contenders.

Wondering what you guys think about the importance of senior leadership (and thus varsity experience).

Deep Run is being consistently mentioned as a pretty decent favorite, but the guys being mentioned are Brooks, Gardner, etc, etc. Not the seniors like the 3b Bowman, or the RF Sansom (I name them because they made all district teams last year).

Then you have Godwin, who has a bunch of seniors waiting to take over for departing seniors along with Lees and Garrett, both senior pitchers with experience.

So simply, how much will senior experience play out in the colonial district?

bored today.so with two weeks till tryouts...bump. more discussion=more fun!

quote:

Originally posted by PIS:
It will take Lees being the POY and Marano being COY for Godwin to take.....I think.

I dont remember all, but I think they lost last years starting catcher (Moore), 3B (Payne - USC), SS (name escapes me but he went to JMU), RF (Barker). Didn't they lose their starting 1B too? Who played CF?

They do have some good young kids including LHP Basso.

You prediction is as strong as anyones right now though. Lots of question marks around that district. Deep Run is young but talented. DSF has major vacancies to fill. I would not fall asleep on Tucker or Hermitage this year.

I dont know who will finish on top, but I predict that the Herm boys will give people fits all year. 2 LHP and lots of athletes with speed. Spoiler or contender, who knows?

I cant wait to see some games!

Rich Prado
www.playinschool.com

ShortStop was Conner Brown. CF was Adam Blankenship (Longwood). he was closer also. Also lost two year starter in LF and lead-off hitter, Tyler Lane.

Thanks for helping fill in those blanks Prep Ballfan.

I'll preface this by saying that I'm sure Godwin will be in the mix. They will have very strong pitching and Coach Morano is always in contention for COY. But to recap (help me if I miss something), they lost their C, 3B, SS, 1B, LF, CF, RF from last year? Wow! But they are always ready to reload!

Meanwhile Tucker had something in the neighborhood of 12 juniors on the team last year. Will be interesting to see if they all make the club this year because they do have some younger talent in the pipeline.

The weather appears to be improving. The season is right around the corner now.

Rich
www.playinschool.com

I believe the top two teams will be Deep Run and Godwin. If either team can go 2-0 against each other, that team will win the district. If they split, then who knows. Freeman with Godfrey does a great job shutting down the other team, but as far as run support, doubt there is much. Tucker has a lot of upperclassmen, but besides Engler (ODU), they don't have any super star.

Deep Run and Godwin have the two best teams in the districts. Deep Run only lost a few seniors last year and have great piching (Brooks, Gardner, Bruce, Lane, etc) and that junior class has some great bats. Godwin, even though they lost the majority of their starting line-up, still have a strong core of players that will replace them. Lees, Garrett, and Stephens is the best 3 man rotation around, all throwing mid to upper 80s. Biddix in the middle, and Foster in LF, could be a great team once again.

I was clearly just saying who I thought was going to win the district.

quote:

Originally posted by HSBaseballGuru:
I believe the top two teams will be Deep Run and Godwin. If either team can go 2-0 against each other, that team will win the district. If they split, then who knows. Freeman with Godfrey does a great job shutting down the other team, but as far as run support, doubt there is much. Tucker has a lot of upperclassmen, but besides Engler (ODU), they don't have any super star.

Deep Run and Godwin have the two best teams in the districts. Deep Run only lost a few seniors last year and have great piching (Brooks, Gardner, Bruce, Lane, etc) and that junior class has some great bats. Godwin, even though they lost the majority of their starting line-up, still have a strong core of players that will replace them. Lees, Garrett, and Stephens is the best 3 man rotation around, all throwing mid to upper 80s. Biddix in the middle, and Foster in LF, could be a great team once again.

The self-promoting (and over stating of "capabilities") on this and other posts are amazing--- First-- I "do not have a dog in this fight". My kids are grown. I just love HS baseball. Second, not going to claim I know more than everyone else--but I have played and coached at as high a level as 99% out there, so I know a little about the game.

Godwin will have a good and experienced pitching staff. All those kids are good(Garrett already signed with VMI, Lees has signed also not sure where, don't know about Stephens). I know Lees and Garrett to be good kids also. I have seen them--and they are good,BUT they do not throw in the "mid to UPPER 80's". Try low to mid 80's.

1 Godwin,2 Tucker,3 Deep Run,4 Freeman,5 Herm.
Godwin - Lees, Stevens, Garrett 2011
Tucker - Engler 2011, Gonzales, Gorman 2012
Deep Run - Brooks, Gardner 2012
Freeman - Godfrey 2012
Herm - Rooker 2013

As a relatively "new" member and NOT associated with any of the teams or players being discussed in this thread, what qualities are you measuring/gauging to create the pitcher rankings. I am fascinated by the thought process of others because for me it is more about finesse/ control versus velocity. I would rather see a pitcher “out think” the batter then just “gun” it past them.

I don't believe in just velocity, I believe it is certainly helpful and a big part, but I would rather have someone throw 80 and hit there spots instead of someone throw 85 and walk people and not have a second pitch.

I didn't realize those were the only two options.

I always thought you'd like to have velocity, command, and quality off-speed stuff all in one package. Sure, most of us have to make do without one or more of those qualities, but if you're going to talk about who's the best of the best, those are the guys who put it all together.

As for accusations: I have three kids. Only one played HS baseball. He's in college now, so my interest in area HS players is strictly due to being a fan and I guess also due to my having invested my time in trying to help a few of them as well.

If you think someone is just blowing smoke about their own kid, my advice is to ignore them. They want attention; don't give it to them. The added benefit is you don't end up posting jerky things yourself.

AMEN TO THAT, MIDLO DAD!!!! Well said!

Don't kid or delude yourself. It is about velocity, velocity and more velocity. Just for kicks, I looked at the perfect game rankings of the top 2011 players and chose at random seven pitchers at intervals of 50 starting with the 25th ranked player. If the next player on the list was not a pure pitcher, I went to the next closest right handed pitcher. Here is what I found:
#25 right handed pitcher topped out at 94.
#75 right handed pitcher topped out at 92.
#125 right handed pitcher. No speed given.
#171 right handed pitcher topped out at 90. Narrative mentions tall (6' 5"), lean and projectable build (which I think explains the higher ranking).
#224 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.
#271 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.
#323 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.

Am sure you will find some pitchers who throw slower that are ranked higher, but, for the most part, velocity determines the rank. (This posting is not a knock on the rankings or pg, just an observation).

quote:

Originally posted by El gato:
Don't kid or delude yourself. It is about velocity, velocity and more velocity. Just for kicks, I looked at the perfect game rankings of the top 2011 players and chose at random seven pitchers at intervals of 50 starting with the 25th ranked player. If the next player on the list was not a pure pitcher, I went to the next closest right handed pitcher. Here is what I found:
#25 right handed pitcher topped out at 94.
#75 right handed pitcher topped out at 92.
#125 right handed pitcher. No speed given.
#171 right handed pitcher topped out at 90. Narrative mentions tall (6' 5"), lean and projectable build (which I think explains the higher ranking).
#224 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.
#271 right handed pitcher. No speed given.
#323 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.

Am sure you will find some pitchers who throw slower that are ranked higher, but, for the most part, velocity determines the rank. (This posting is not a knock on the rankings or pg, just an observation).

You are correct, El Gato. May be that velocity is the easiest thing to measure (how do you describe movement, speed differential on Change Up, break on CB etc). But through the years, playing and coaching, I have seen 92 get lit up (in college, not necessarily HS) and 84 (especially LH) eat up innings and get people out. I do believe 92 will get more notice than 84 as a general rule, but 84 (and speeds in between) can and often is effective in HS and college. I just think it unfortunate that in this age of measuring everything that parents and AAU coaches/ parents feel the need to "overstate" those measurements.

Finally, just b/c some kid "touches" a speed at some camp doesn't mean that is what he pitches. Case--- 3-4 years ago I saw Danny Hultzen pitch in HS. Pro scouts with guns had him at 89-91 during the game. I looked him up and he was listed at 92 at some camp.

Two years ago, in Regional game at Ole Miss (on TV)he was dominating, as he has been his whole career at UVA, and was throwing 88, touching 89. Probably can still touch 92 in a BP, but does not pitch there.

For what it is worth.

And all along I thought the job of a pitcher was to get outs.

Velocity is ****. Everybody on here is caught up in becoming a pro or a Top 25 player. Those guys do need velocity. But to be a good high school pitcher you need to throw the ball over the plate.

According to the NCAA, only 6.4 percent of high school senior baseball players move on to play college baseball. So what about the other 93.6 percent?

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/portal...+-+Prob+of+Competing

I know plenty of kids that do not and will never throw hard that are quality high school pitchers. Remember that this website is called High School Baseball Web. You will have to realize that the over whelming majority of kids are what most of us would consider AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE. That is OK.

Throw strikes! Let your defense work! Have fun!

Rich
www.playinschool.com

Prep Ballfan and PIS,
Don't get me wrong. I posted something a year or so ago that "we forget the ultimate goal, record outs and win games" and commented upon "mound demeanor, location, changing speeds, fielding ability, holding running", but velocity seems to top the other factors. I do not agree with it, but am not going to ignore it.