Colonial District Predictions

It will take Lees being the POY and Marano being COY for Godwin to take.....I think.

I dont remember all, but I think they lost last years starting catcher (Moore), 3B (Payne - USC), SS (name escapes me but he went to JMU), RF (Barker). Didn't they lose their starting 1B too? Who played CF?

They do have some good young kids including LHP Basso.

You prediction is as strong as anyones right now though. Lots of question marks around that district. Deep Run is young but talented. DSF has major vacancies to fill. I would not fall asleep on Tucker or Hermitage this year.

I dont know who will finish on top, but I predict that the Herm boys will give people fits all year. 2 LHP and lots of athletes with speed. Spoiler or contender, who knows?

I cant wait to see some games!

Rich Prado
www.playinschool.com

Agree with PIS about Hermitage. I predicted them to be a sleeper last year, and I'll stay with that prediction this year. If I had to pick, I would probably take Deep Run. Those guys are loaded with talent. They may be a year away from a run into the state playoffs, but I think this may be the year where they announce their presence with authority.

To me this year shapes up as a very even year across the board in the Colonial and in the Central Region as well. Godwin lost a lot of talent as did Freeman.

I like Hermitage's lefties, Burnett and Rooker. But they're a year away from their best players peaking on the one hand, while on the back end their feeder pipeline is being siphoned off to the new high school. I think their pitching will allow some upsets, but I don't see them winning consistently in district play against teams like Deep Run or Godwin.

To me it looks like a year of haves and have-nots, as opposed to one with neck-and-neck competition. Godwin, Deep Run, Freeman, and after that a big drop off. Hermitage and Tucker I see as respectable but not contenders.

Wondering what you guys think about the importance of senior leadership (and thus varsity experience).

Deep Run is being consistently mentioned as a pretty decent favorite, but the guys being mentioned are Brooks, Gardner, etc, etc. Not the seniors like the 3b Bowman, or the RF Sansom (I name them because they made all district teams last year).

Then you have Godwin, who has a bunch of seniors waiting to take over for departing seniors along with Lees and Garrett, both senior pitchers with experience.

So simply, how much will senior experience play out in the colonial district?

bored today.so with two weeks till tryouts...bump. more discussion=more fun!

quote:

Originally posted by PIS:
It will take Lees being the POY and Marano being COY for Godwin to take.....I think.

I dont remember all, but I think they lost last years starting catcher (Moore), 3B (Payne - USC), SS (name escapes me but he went to JMU), RF (Barker). Didn't they lose their starting 1B too? Who played CF?

They do have some good young kids including LHP Basso.

You prediction is as strong as anyones right now though. Lots of question marks around that district. Deep Run is young but talented. DSF has major vacancies to fill. I would not fall asleep on Tucker or Hermitage this year.

I dont know who will finish on top, but I predict that the Herm boys will give people fits all year. 2 LHP and lots of athletes with speed. Spoiler or contender, who knows?

I cant wait to see some games!

Rich Prado
www.playinschool.com

ShortStop was Conner Brown. CF was Adam Blankenship (Longwood). he was closer also. Also lost two year starter in LF and lead-off hitter, Tyler Lane.

Thanks for helping fill in those blanks Prep Ballfan.

I'll preface this by saying that I'm sure Godwin will be in the mix. They will have very strong pitching and Coach Morano is always in contention for COY. But to recap (help me if I miss something), they lost their C, 3B, SS, 1B, LF, CF, RF from last year? Wow! But they are always ready to reload!

Meanwhile Tucker had something in the neighborhood of 12 juniors on the team last year. Will be interesting to see if they all make the club this year because they do have some younger talent in the pipeline.

The weather appears to be improving. The season is right around the corner now.

Rich
www.playinschool.com

I believe the top two teams will be Deep Run and Godwin. If either team can go 2-0 against each other, that team will win the district. If they split, then who knows. Freeman with Godfrey does a great job shutting down the other team, but as far as run support, doubt there is much. Tucker has a lot of upperclassmen, but besides Engler (ODU), they don't have any super star.

Deep Run and Godwin have the two best teams in the districts. Deep Run only lost a few seniors last year and have great piching (Brooks, Gardner, Bruce, Lane, etc) and that junior class has some great bats. Godwin, even though they lost the majority of their starting line-up, still have a strong core of players that will replace them. Lees, Garrett, and Stephens is the best 3 man rotation around, all throwing mid to upper 80s. Biddix in the middle, and Foster in LF, could be a great team once again.

I was clearly just saying who I thought was going to win the district.

quote:

Originally posted by HSBaseballGuru:
I believe the top two teams will be Deep Run and Godwin. If either team can go 2-0 against each other, that team will win the district. If they split, then who knows. Freeman with Godfrey does a great job shutting down the other team, but as far as run support, doubt there is much. Tucker has a lot of upperclassmen, but besides Engler (ODU), they don't have any super star.

Deep Run and Godwin have the two best teams in the districts. Deep Run only lost a few seniors last year and have great piching (Brooks, Gardner, Bruce, Lane, etc) and that junior class has some great bats. Godwin, even though they lost the majority of their starting line-up, still have a strong core of players that will replace them. Lees, Garrett, and Stephens is the best 3 man rotation around, all throwing mid to upper 80s. Biddix in the middle, and Foster in LF, could be a great team once again.

The self-promoting (and over stating of "capabilities") on this and other posts are amazing--- First-- I "do not have a dog in this fight". My kids are grown. I just love HS baseball. Second, not going to claim I know more than everyone else--but I have played and coached at as high a level as 99% out there, so I know a little about the game.

Godwin will have a good and experienced pitching staff. All those kids are good(Garrett already signed with VMI, Lees has signed also not sure where, don't know about Stephens). I know Lees and Garrett to be good kids also. I have seen them--and they are good,BUT they do not throw in the "mid to UPPER 80's". Try low to mid 80's.

1 Godwin,2 Tucker,3 Deep Run,4 Freeman,5 Herm.
Godwin - Lees, Stevens, Garrett 2011
Tucker - Engler 2011, Gonzales, Gorman 2012
Deep Run - Brooks, Gardner 2012
Freeman - Godfrey 2012
Herm - Rooker 2013

As a relatively "new" member and NOT associated with any of the teams or players being discussed in this thread, what qualities are you measuring/gauging to create the pitcher rankings. I am fascinated by the thought process of others because for me it is more about finesse/ control versus velocity. I would rather see a pitcher “out think” the batter then just “gun” it past them.

I don't believe in just velocity, I believe it is certainly helpful and a big part, but I would rather have someone throw 80 and hit there spots instead of someone throw 85 and walk people and not have a second pitch.

I didn't realize those were the only two options.

I always thought you'd like to have velocity, command, and quality off-speed stuff all in one package. Sure, most of us have to make do without one or more of those qualities, but if you're going to talk about who's the best of the best, those are the guys who put it all together.

As for accusations: I have three kids. Only one played HS baseball. He's in college now, so my interest in area HS players is strictly due to being a fan and I guess also due to my having invested my time in trying to help a few of them as well.

If you think someone is just blowing smoke about their own kid, my advice is to ignore them. They want attention; don't give it to them. The added benefit is you don't end up posting jerky things yourself.

AMEN TO THAT, MIDLO DAD!!!! Well said!

Don't kid or delude yourself. It is about velocity, velocity and more velocity. Just for kicks, I looked at the perfect game rankings of the top 2011 players and chose at random seven pitchers at intervals of 50 starting with the 25th ranked player. If the next player on the list was not a pure pitcher, I went to the next closest right handed pitcher. Here is what I found:
#25 right handed pitcher topped out at 94.
#75 right handed pitcher topped out at 92.
#125 right handed pitcher. No speed given.
#171 right handed pitcher topped out at 90. Narrative mentions tall (6' 5"), lean and projectable build (which I think explains the higher ranking).
#224 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.
#271 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.
#323 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.

Am sure you will find some pitchers who throw slower that are ranked higher, but, for the most part, velocity determines the rank. (This posting is not a knock on the rankings or pg, just an observation).

quote:

Originally posted by El gato:
Don't kid or delude yourself. It is about velocity, velocity and more velocity. Just for kicks, I looked at the perfect game rankings of the top 2011 players and chose at random seven pitchers at intervals of 50 starting with the 25th ranked player. If the next player on the list was not a pure pitcher, I went to the next closest right handed pitcher. Here is what I found:
#25 right handed pitcher topped out at 94.
#75 right handed pitcher topped out at 92.
#125 right handed pitcher. No speed given.
#171 right handed pitcher topped out at 90. Narrative mentions tall (6' 5"), lean and projectable build (which I think explains the higher ranking).
#224 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.
#271 right handed pitcher. No speed given.
#323 right handed pitcher topped out at 91.

Am sure you will find some pitchers who throw slower that are ranked higher, but, for the most part, velocity determines the rank. (This posting is not a knock on the rankings or pg, just an observation).

You are correct, El Gato. May be that velocity is the easiest thing to measure (how do you describe movement, speed differential on Change Up, break on CB etc). But through the years, playing and coaching, I have seen 92 get lit up (in college, not necessarily HS) and 84 (especially LH) eat up innings and get people out. I do believe 92 will get more notice than 84 as a general rule, but 84 (and speeds in between) can and often is effective in HS and college. I just think it unfortunate that in this age of measuring everything that parents and AAU coaches/ parents feel the need to "overstate" those measurements.

Finally, just b/c some kid "touches" a speed at some camp doesn't mean that is what he pitches. Case--- 3-4 years ago I saw Danny Hultzen pitch in HS. Pro scouts with guns had him at 89-91 during the game. I looked him up and he was listed at 92 at some camp.

Two years ago, in Regional game at Ole Miss (on TV)he was dominating, as he has been his whole career at UVA, and was throwing 88, touching 89. Probably can still touch 92 in a BP, but does not pitch there.

For what it is worth.

And all along I thought the job of a pitcher was to get outs.

Velocity is ****. Everybody on here is caught up in becoming a pro or a Top 25 player. Those guys do need velocity. But to be a good high school pitcher you need to throw the ball over the plate.

According to the NCAA, only 6.4 percent of high school senior baseball players move on to play college baseball. So what about the other 93.6 percent?

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/portal...+-+Prob+of+Competing

I know plenty of kids that do not and will never throw hard that are quality high school pitchers. Remember that this website is called High School Baseball Web. You will have to realize that the over whelming majority of kids are what most of us would consider AVERAGE or BELOW AVERAGE. That is OK.

Throw strikes! Let your defense work! Have fun!

Rich
www.playinschool.com

Prep Ballfan and PIS,
Don't get me wrong. I posted something a year or so ago that "we forget the ultimate goal, record outs and win games" and commented upon "mound demeanor, location, changing speeds, fielding ability, holding running", but velocity seems to top the other factors. I do not agree with it, but am not going to ignore it.

quote:

Originally posted by El gato:
Prep Ballfan and PIS,
Don't get me wrong. I posted something a year or so ago that "we forget the ultimate goal, record outs and win games" and commented upon "mound demeanor, location, changing speeds, fielding ability, holding running", but velocity seems to top the other factors. I do not agree with it, but am not going to ignore it.

Understand and agree with you-- but I am pointing out that many posts , here and others, talk about a kid's velocity (same probably can be said for 60-yard speed for everyday players and infielder's arm speed, etc.) and it is overstated. And from the thread here, some of the participants seem to think it is fathers or even kids themselves putting it out there.

I am more interested in how kids are doing, who had a good outing, where are kids going to school and even peoples opinion of what teams will be good (so I know what games to go watch!).

My comments in this thread began when discussing Colonial District teams this year, I said I thought Godwin would be good but their pitchers do not throw "mid to upper 80's".

Prep Ballfan, I think the player in question topped out at 86 according to perfect game and threw between 80 and 85 on a regular basis.

quote:

Originally posted by El gato:
Prep Ballfan, I think the player in question topped out at 86 according to perfect game and threw between 80 and 85 on a regular basis.

That sounds more like it

The other, often unspoken, element of pitching is accuracy. Granted a good pitching coach can get a fireballer's mechanics, arm slot and release point(s)tuned to get the ball down in the strike zone and off the plate where they want it. Some of the kids I've seen who "top out" at ____ mph look like Ricky Vaughn before glasses. One I saw last summer walked 3 straight then gave up a grand slam when he groved a BP fastball to the 9 hole hitter. But that radar gun had him upper 80's on the 3 BBs.

I know this is a great point for debate on these boards, but I (being the old f*** that I am)like the kid who can locate and materially change speeds better than the fireballer. More guys prolonged their pitching career by doing exactly that, esp the ones who remained starters throughout their careers. Pitching to contact and getting ground ball outs in 2-3 pitches also keeps pitch counts down, for the coaches that actually keep track of that silly number.

OK guys go ahead and get me !

We've had all these discussions on this board before, and then some -- though I realize some of you are relative newbies here.

A few quick summaries of what I've said many times before:

1. Scouts (like PG) like MPH because to the ability to teach it is limited. A guy who can throw 95 is not ready for MLB but he has a chance to learn the other facets of pitching. A guy who spots his 82 mph fastball has no chance of being an MLB pitcher. The result is that MPH is king when you evaluate kids as far as their pro futures.

2. Many kids can and do have a lot of success at the HS level without much MPH. More power to 'em.

3. Parents often get upset when they see a hard-throwing kid (who may have difficulty with command from time to time, as that is quite common in hard-throwing kids) get more attention than their son, who throws not so hard but who is getting shutout innings right now. Sorry, that's just the way it is. Carping on kids who throw hard, or pretending MPH isn't important, is often little more than sour grapes from those who don't have MPH.

4. The MPH you need to be a pro prospect is more than you need to be a D-1 prospect, which is more than you need to be a D-3 prospect, which is more than you need to be considered a hard thrower at the HS level. So, you can be topping out at 85 and still be a hard thrower at the high school level. 85 makes you a D-3 prospect, a D-1 long shot, and undrafted as far as the pros go.

5. Never confuse peak velocities with typical velocities. Hultzen probably did hit 92 once or twice when you saw him, but he cruised 89-91. I've seen players who have thrown 98, and that's what everyone likes to buzz about, but the typical fastball is 93-94, and some fastballs (especially 2-seamers) might be 90-91. But even at 90-91, that kid's going to be faster than the kid who peaked at 91 once. That kid's typical speed is going to be 86-87, and he may even throw some 83's up there in any given outing. It's all relative, just make sure you're comparing apples to apples. Don't compare one kid's peak velocity to another's cruising speed.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
We've had all these discussions on this board before, and then some -- though I realize some of you are relative newbies here.

A few quick summaries of what I've said many times before:

1. Scouts (like PG) like MPH because to the ability to teach it is limited. A guy who can throw 95 is not ready for MLB but he has a chance to learn the other facets of pitching. A guy who spots his 82 mph fastball has no chance of being an MLB pitcher. The result is that MPH is king when you evaluate kids as far as their pro futures.

2. Many kids can and do have a lot of success at the HS level without much MPH. More power to 'em.

3. Parents often get upset when they see a hard-throwing kid (who may have difficulty with command from time to time, as that is quite common in hard-throwing kids) get more attention than their son, who throws not so hard but who is getting shutout innings right now. Sorry, that's just the way it is. Carping on kids who throw hard, or pretending MPH isn't important, is often little more than sour grapes from those who don't have MPH.

4. The MPH you need to be a pro prospect is more than you need to be a D-1 prospect, which is more than you need to be a D-3 prospect, which is more than you need to be considered a hard thrower at the HS level. So, you can be topping out at 85 and still be a hard thrower at the high school level. 85 makes you a D-3 prospect, a D-1 long shot, and undrafted as far as the pros go.

5. Never confuse peak velocities with typical velocities. Hultzen probably did hit 92 once or twice when you saw him, but he cruised 89-91. I've seen players who have thrown 98, and that's what everyone likes to buzz about, but the typical fastball is 93-94, and some fastballs (especially 2-seamers) might be 90-91. But even at 90-91, that kid's going to be faster than the kid who peaked at 91 once. That kid's typical speed is going to be 86-87, and he may even throw some 83's up there in any given outing. It's all relative, just make sure you're comparing apples to apples. Don't compare one kid's peak velocity to another's cruising speed.

All good info Midlo, but my point has been all along that people overstate these stats.

Midlo Dad & PIS are making some really good points about pitching and also about ignoring some of the comments. Their messages and several others are always very professional and valuable.

I haven't been out on this thread in a while but when I glanced through it to catch up there are a few interesting comments, one in particular, about what I am assuming are the parents talking up there kids. If this really is the case, I guess I've been fortunate to have had mostly good parents over the years. I know this doesn't always happen and we always have to be careful with the parents about what we say.

I don't know about the other guys messages who are supporting players, because I can only speak for my former players, but, I feel comfortable that the parents of the players I have mentioned in my messages are clear of any perceived wrong doing that has been asserted. Although I do not consider myself friends with any of them and not sure if they even read this message board, these are the types of parents that don't typically talk up there kids, but ones that recognize strengths & weaknesses.

From my perspective, I don't really care what the parents say if they really are doing this, because facts are facts, it just doesn't bother me. It may also be a case where former coaches comments are being confused with parents comments? There seems to be so many different new people chiming in and out now that it gets confusing. I think this message board stuff should be all about fun and learning, not so serious and angry.

I am curious to see how some of the others like Midlo Dad & PIS feel about coaches saying good things about there own players. I think as long as it's factual and positive, it is good to support them, regardless of what others may think.

I have coached many of these kids and am supporting them as many coaches support there players and want to see them reach there potential. That's why personally, I will say good things about players sometimes. I actually would like to keep messages related to baseball strategies and mechanics, and not about the players, but so many times we are drawn into it and then everyone starts chiming in.

Thanks for letting me give you my 2-cents worth.

MidloDad said....

quote:

4. The MPH you need to be a pro prospect is more than you need to be a D-1 prospect, which is more than you need to be a D-3 prospect, which is more than you need to be considered a hard thrower at the HS level. So, you can be topping out at 85 and still be a hard thrower at the high school level. 85 makes you a D-3 prospect, a D-1 long shot, and undrafted as far as the pros go.

It is about velocity IF your son is considering playing beyond HS. Velocity is what the college scouts are focused on right or wrong. College pitching coaches will then teach your son the finer points of pitching every day. I've had this discussion with Midlo before and he is absolutely right. I'm seeing this dynamic from a different & new perspective (son is a college freshmen pitcher).

I bought that load of **** that college scouts were looking for "pitchability" when my son was being recruited. I thought pitchability was getting batters out and being smart about your pitches. From my new perspective, pitchability (to a college pitching coach) is throwing hard, learning new pitching and training techniques, and working hard to build your body to compete for starting pitcher spot on a college team.


Prep Ballfan said:

quote:

All good info Midlo, but my point has been all along that people overstate these stats.

I call it the Daddy discount. Take 3-5mph off of anything a Dad says about his sons MPH on the mound.

For about the price of a baseball bat ($200) individuals can go out and buy a pocket radar gun that will bring those who need it a dose of reality. The pocket radar is as accurate as any of the radar guns used at showcases. www.pocketradar.com check it out.

Good points from all, but this discussion started on Colonial District projections--who are the good teams. Like to see it back there. Thanks.

I'm not bballguy or w/e. My name is = CLAIM DELETED BY MODERATOR - MN-Mom =.

Boy this thread went downhill in a hurry. What started out as a Colonial District discussion has become accusations of parent/coach self promotion and posing. IMO enough. Let's get back to talking about the upcoming season. There are too many good kids, teams and games to talk about. Thanks for hearing my opinion.

I spoke to Travis Biddix and he had never even heard of this site. It's sad when people try to rise up by putting others down, especially players. What is gained by you saying that you are Travis?

This is all sounding really bad guys and/or gals. Oldhandcoach, I don't know you and have nothing personal against you that I know of, and was not going to say anything else either, but after just reading your message that listed folks about multiple accounts and all, prompting this last tango, sorry, I'm not your guy, nor does it look like the others are either. Thats really wrong bringing innocent people into it. Oh well, here is a suggestion for all of us, if you have a personal grudge against anyone for whatever crazy reason, then please just personally contact them using the personal note tool and work it out amongst yourselves, and don't make a public event out of it with ugly statements, etc. It only makes things worse for everyone. Most people would agree that we need to get back to a regular board and keep all the garbage out of it. Can someone start a new thread and start over? Lets keep the Peace.

I am = CLAIM DELETED BY MODERATOR - MN-Mom =. **** Deep Run and **** Freeman, Godwin's taking this district.

Talking about velocity and success at the D-1 level.Seth Cutler/Voltz at VCU has been very successful there and is one of the preseason top three pitchers in the CAA.I have seen him pitch a number of times at the diamond sitting behind the guys charting the pitches with the radar guns and his fastball normally tops out at 84-85,but the kid can pitch.

I hate stupid dads who think they know about High School Baseball.

You guys are lame

This thread is getting to be beyond absurd. What does any of this have to do with Colonial District Predictions? I agree with Bballguy123 AND QuadAAAA, these guys who have their own personal agenda need to butt out. There is no room for this type of poisonous trash talk.

Why don't you guys MAN UP and contact each other directly, work out your problems directly with each other, and let this thread return to what it is supposed to be? ...or, if you really need to keep on posting ridiculous ****, start your own thread and keep your trash to yourselves and anyone that really wants to read about it? Grow up, gentlemen!

quote:

I am =NAME DELETED=. **** Deep Run and **** Freeman, Godwin's taking this district.

I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

If you are indeed =NAME DELETED=, you would be well advised to take down the above post. Ask your brother how college coaches, or your current HS coach, would feel about it if he knew about it.

If you're not =NAME DELETED=, as someone above charged, then this is so far over the line I don't know where to start. Not only is the post inappropriate, but if it's done by an imposter, it's a slander on the boy's good name.

Either way, I am hereby clicking on the "report post" icon.

None of which is to say that Godwin might not win the district. Could very well be!

But it's a fan's prerogative to speculate. And seeing it all play out on the field is a big part of the fun.