Commitment overload and NLI

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

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Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

The kids in your sons class that are ranked a bit higher than him should not be his biggest concern, lol. He will be competing against guys that could be 4 years+ older and experienced than a freshman. Don’t let anyone outwork you. Be humble. Be coachable. And don’t be afraid to compete. 

CatsPop posted:

Just happened to one in our area.  Completed Freshman year, now he's JUCO bound.  Bacdorslider said that this Fall Vandy will have about 43 kids playing ball, which means 8 won't be around come mid-February.

This (over-recruiting) was the subject of a thread last spring in which I called attention to the large number of announced 2018s at a number of prominent D1 schools - including Vanderbilt. During that discussion I was “assured” that at least 10 of  the Vandy commits would sign in the upcoming 2018 draft. I didn’t believe that to be a realistic assumption and it didn’t happen. Now there is a logjam and players will have to leave.  But it’s not just Vandy - this is going on everywhere.  It underscores the importance of seeking the right level in the beginning - because you are going to end up there anyway. My son is a 2018 and he is going to a great JuCo program and I couldn’t be happier for him. He will play for 2 years instead of sit and will also get basic academic class work out of the way. JuCo is a great option for many kids and it doesn’t get the consideration that it should from all of those chasing the D1 holy grail that they aren’t ready for anyway. 

ADBONO  I could not agree more... There are 3 coming to campus in the 2018 class and any or all could have gone in the draft.  Somehow someway  Vandy has to get the number down.   I would guess the fall will decide the fate of a few.  Parents have to understand what they are getting into.  For my first two sons they could have gone to a mid-major and most likely sat the bench, wondered if they were going to get cut etc.  Instead they went to a very good Juco and ended up moving on to the mid-major more prepared and ready to play not just be on the team.   My youngest son  was in a different  spot.  We knew that after the draft , if he did not sign he would start at Vandy this summer taking classes and working out with the trainer.  That's a good head start for him as he is  soph eligible  in 2020.  However he has to produce and earn his time like every other player.  If he had been a late commit to Vandy and maybe did not have the rankings, accolades  and draft attention we would have considered another route for him.  I do know that if anyone can figure out the situation and do what is right for all involved it's TC.

3and2Fastball posted:

It is hard to wrap my mind around the concept of a kid    attending Vanderbilt and that not being in "their best interests" when all or most of their education at that incredible institution is being paid for!!!! 

Are there a lot of kids transferring out of Vandy?

history shows  2-3 a year transfer, flunk out, quit.

adbono posted:

CatsPop posted:

Just happened to one in our area.  Completed Freshman year, now he's JUCO bound.  Bacdorslider said that this Fall Vandy will have about 43 kids playing ball, which means 8 won't be around come mid-February.

JuCo is a great option for many kids and it doesn’t get the consideration that it should from all of those chasing the D1 holy grail that they aren’t ready for anyway. 

My son just spent the weekend at Iowa's All Star series, a four-team tournament featuring the top 64 high school seniors from around the state. Of those, I counted about 10 going to D1 schools — including kids playing collegiate golf, hockey and football. Another group of about 10 were going to D2 (I think one) and D3s. The rest were going to Jucos.

We looked closely at the Juco option and the only thing I would warn is that you need to look at the academics. My son is going into college with about 35 credit hours from dual enrollment and AP credits. Juco might have been good for his baseball, but there was a very limited pool of classes he could have taken.

Thanks for that shock factor. Never realized the list was in ranking.   Just looked to see where mine stood in his class.  In the middle, which is where I thought he would be.  The bottom three in his class have no pics beside their PG profile.  But it is weird because I clicked on it three different times and the players moved in position each time except the top player.  It would concern me if my son was at the bottom or the bottom of several players being recruited for the same position.  There are only two LHP's in his class and he and the other one are fairly even.  I think the good part for them is there are only 4 there currently, and 1 or none coming in,  I believe that is bigger than most think.  When we were going through the recruiting process, we looked at who/how many will you have to compete with just to get on the field.  I know some don't think this is a big deal but it is.

Iowamom23 posted:

adbono posted:

CatsPop posted:

Just happened to one in our area.  Completed Freshman year, now he's JUCO bound.  Bacdorslider said that this Fall Vandy will have about 43 kids playing ball, which means 8 won't be around come mid-February.

JuCo is a great option for many kids and it doesn’t get the consideration that it should from all of those chasing the D1 holy grail that they aren’t ready for anyway. 

My son just spent the weekend at Iowa's All Star series, a four-team tournament featuring the top 64 high school seniors from around the state. Of those, I counted about 10 going to D1 schools — including kids playing collegiate golf, hockey and football. Another group of about 10 were going to D2 (I think one) and D3s. The rest were going to Jucos.

We looked closely at the Juco option and the only thing I would warn is that you need to look at the academics. My son is going into college with about 35 credit hours from dual enrollment and AP credits. Juco might have been good for his baseball, but there was a very limited pool of classes he could have taken.

Your comment about the academic side of JuCo is a valid point.  All are not created equal in this regard and the range is a big one. We looked hard at that and it had a lot to do with our eventual decision. My son could have gone much closer to home but the academic opportunity was not the same. 

RoadRunner posted:

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

The kids in your sons class that are ranked a bit higher than him should not be his biggest concern, lol. He will be competing against guys that could be 4 years+ older and experienced than a freshman. Don’t let anyone outwork you. Be humble. Be coachable. And don’t be afraid to compete. 

Well, RJM posted above "The harsh reality of D1 ball is half the players leave to play someplace else within two years." 

I won't specify the school, but I saw in the commits for a P5 the following PG national ranks: 74, 159, 184, 282, 284, 353, 365, 460, 500, 500, and 1000. If my son had a "1000" ranking -- which really means a ranking somewhere between 2000 and 4000 -- and I saw the rest of the recruiting class at that school, it would make me wonder whether that was the right fit for him. JMO

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

That is a good question.  I was looking at Arkansas over the past few years.  The best Freshman pitcher this year was one of the lowest pitching recruits and the top 5 recruits are all gone after one year.  A few years ago the bottom 4 was Blaine Knight, Barrett Loseke, Weston Rogers, and Kacey Murphy.  That was the 1 and 2 that lead them to the championship series and one of their best relievers.  All three were drafted.  I think it is easy to rank the top 100 but the further out you go the more difficult it is to differentiate between players.  That is where competitiveness and mental makeup play a big role. 

d-mac posted:

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

That is a good question.  I was looking at Arkansas over the past few years.  The best Freshman pitcher this year was one of the lowest pitching recruits and the top 5 recruits are all gone after one year.  A few years ago the bottom 4 was Blaine Knight, Barrett Loseke, Weston Rogers, and Kacey Murphy.  That was the 1 and 2 that lead them to the championship series and one of their best relievers.  All three were drafted.  I think it is easy to rank the top 100 but the further out you go the more difficult it is to differentiate between players.  That is where competitiveness and mental makeup play a big role. 

On this board too much stock is put into PG ratings, IMO.  Their (PG) ratings are not the gospel.  In general, they are most accurate at the top (just like everyone else's) and the accuracy declines as you move down the scale of talent (just like everyone else that ranks players).  Some PG events do a really good job and others don't.  Some college programs may use PG (or PBR or UA) rankings as a reference but they are not the determining factor in any kids recruiting process. Coaches recruit kids based off what they SEE, not what they READ. 

I talked to an old crosschecker this summer.... he said he has never been to a PG event.  

bacdorslider posted:

I talked to an old crosschecker this summer.... he said he has never been to a PG event.  

Bingo 

2019Dad posted:

RoadRunner posted:

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

The kids in your sons class that are ranked a bit higher than him should not be his biggest concern, lol. He will be competing against guys that could be 4 years+ older and experienced than a freshman. Don’t let anyone outwork you. Be humble. Be coachable. And don’t be afraid to compete. 

Well, RJM posted above "The harsh reality of D1 ball is half the players leave to play someplace else within two years." 

I won't specify the school, but I saw in the commits for a P5 the following PG national ranks: 74, 159, 184, 282, 284, 353, 365, 460, 500, 500, and 1000. If my son had a "1000" ranking -- which really means a ranking somewhere between 2000 and 4000 -- and I saw the rest of the recruiting class at that school, it would make me wonder whether that was the right fit for him. JMO

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

GaryMe posted:

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

Midwest Mom posted:

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? As far as the PG rankings go, I think they are roughly accurate in their buckets, but not within those buckets (Top 100, 101-499, 500, 1000). And of course there are exceptions. And I know so many kids ranked without ever doing a PG showcase that I don't think that is the determining factor. Anyhow, to each his own, in my opinion if my kid had a "1000" ranking and the other kids in his recruiting class had rankings like 168, 222, etc., it would make me go "hmm." I am not saying that PG rankings are the determining factor in any coach's recruiting practice -- for all I know the college coaches never even look at them -- all I'm saying is that I as a parent would use them as a sanity check to know if my kid is "fishing in the right pond".

2019Dad posted:

GaryMe posted:

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

Midwest Mom posted:

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? As far as the PG rankings go, I think they are roughly accurate in their buckets, but not within those buckets (Top 100, 101-499, 500, 1000). And of course there are exceptions. And I know so many kids ranked without ever doing a PG showcase that I don't think that is the determining factor. Anyhow, to each his own, in my opinion if my kid had a "1000" ranking and the other kids in his recruiting class had rankings like 168, 222, etc., it would make me go "hmm." I am not saying that PG rankings are the determining factor in any coach's recruiting practice -- for all I know the college coaches never even look at them -- all I'm saying is that I as a parent would use them as a sanity check to know if my kid is "fishing in the right pond".

I don’t disagree with you. I’m actually a fan of PG.  All I’m saying is it’s not necessarily apples to apples because kids are seen at different times in their development - I know a kid who was seen freshman year and ranked high follow. Today he wouldn’t be a high follow - he’s one of the top kids in our state and is highly sought after as a rising senior.  His PG rank hasn’t changed so he might look like a high follow in a class made of up majority top 200.  He’s not top 200, but he’s probably top 500. Just saying we can recognize that the system isn’t perfect.  It’s good but not perfect, so I’m not too surprised when I see some variations in rankings in class, which happens a lot outside of the very top baseball schools. 

2019Dad posted:

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? 

I've thought about this A LOT over the past couple years, mostly to try to help my son avoid this situation.  I don't think it's because coaches are wrong in their assessments 50% of the time.  If a coach brings in multiple, similarly talented kids to compete for playing time, he's doing his job, but he's going to end up with one kid playing while the other kids are sitting and contemplating transfer, quitting or worrying about getting cut.  Since baseball isn't a game in which subs get lot of playing time, transferring out is the only way for many kids to see the playing field.  So my conclusion was to steer my kid to schools (I insisted on HA schools so he'd get a good education) where his talent could stand out, and make sure he could hit (so he'd still be in the line-up somewhere even if another player was stronger defensively).

2019Dad posted:

GaryMe posted:

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

Midwest Mom posted:

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? As far as the PG rankings go, I think they are roughly accurate in their buckets, but not within those buckets (Top 100, 101-499, 500, 1000). And of course there are exceptions. And I know so many kids ranked without ever doing a PG showcase that I don't think that is the determining factor. Anyhow, to each his own, in my opinion if my kid had a "1000" ranking and the other kids in his recruiting class had rankings like 168, 222, etc., it would make me go "hmm." I am not saying that PG rankings are the determining factor in any coach's recruiting practice -- for all I know the college coaches never even look at them -- all I'm saying is that I as a parent would use them as a sanity check to know if my kid is "fishing in the right pond".

Saying that because half of the kids transfer, it means the coaches missed on their assessments isn't really that accurate of a statement IF you are just talking about skill.  There are just so many other factors:

A.  Does the kid like the place he is playing? (Small Town kid moves to a big city to, Big Town kid goes to a college town to play, etc.)

B.  Kid just plain gets homesick. (Mom, Dad, Girlfriend, etc.

C.  Pitcher who doesn't care for his PC.

D.  Gets injured.

E.  School is too hard, and wants to transfer to a less demanding university.

There are so many other reasons too.

I don't know that half the kids transfer? .. that's a huge number.   The fact is every year since I have been coming here ( 2009)  everyone has to go through the reality phase.  Mostly that Johnny is not as good as either the coach , the parent , the player thought he was and their goals were were placed to high. Maybe due to getting so much marketing thrown at them, maybe because they have no idea what they are talking about. So here's the travel ball parent test.  Pick either A or B.

1.) WWBA  and there are 40 RC's all huddled together and talking, texting, charting , are they "A" crazy  interested in "my boy"  or answer "B" comparing their fantasy football teams ?

2.) Jupiter WS  there are  50 scouts  behind the screen packed in like sardines, are "A" fighting for the front row to see how great my sons swing is  or "B" trying to stay in the shade.

3.) PBR event, pick one  they are all the same..... 100's of  RC's ...... every college team represented  10 are standing down the 3rd base line.... are they "A" watching the footwork on my stud infielder and his cannon arm,  or "B" trying to check out the sister or mom of a player and not get caught looking ?

4.)  Three weeks ago I was talking to a RC and I quote " I drove to Lake point to see a kid and not only was he terrible the team he was on and the team they were playing was terrible. " 

Here's how it works..... the big dog gotta eat first.... so the SEC then ACC and the PAC12  are going to cherry pick the best 10-12 players they can from where ever they darn well please. They have the money and they get who they want.  

Next are the Big 10 schools, some eastern schools , great schools they take the best from their area.   

Then the SEC and ACC come in again later in the recruiting cycle and take players for what they call the second tier recruits.

Next are the mid-majors, not always fully funded, but take the best in-state kids that are left and the Jucos that turned out alright.  maybe a few from neighboring states. 

If you are not getting any interest from P5 schools by your soph summer and / or interest from national travel teams, or Area Code, East Coast Pro then  you should probably start at the mid-major and work down.  Of course there is always an exception..... maybe you are it.....  Don't bother going to P5 camps, paying a ton of money.... etc....   Another true story..... player was on a recruiting visit to a nice baseball school in Kentucky and not UK.   as he and his family were being lead around they opened a door that went out onto the field... and as luck would have it, there was a camp going on.... and that's when I saw about a 50 players and parents have the uh hu  moment..... 

IF these power 5 schools want you they are not going to invite you to a camp, they are going to call you, they are going to call you daily, they are going to get you to campus "on a academic visit" and make sure they are in the office when you come by. They are going to write your offer on a dry erase board and point to it.   

I mean come on, do you know how many emails these guys get on a daily ?   If you want to answer emails go ahead, if you want to post videos go ahead.... won't do much good really.... 

Take your player to a local college and watch the games, be honest can I play with these guys, am I built like this, as fast as quick, arm as good..... and if you can get one coach or anyone to believe that your son has talent maybe he can go to bat for you.... these coaches are not going to give you 60k in money move you across the country to play D3 ball if they do not have a very good idea of who you are.    Sending tons of emails etc... it does not work that way..... they recruit you , you don't convince them... 

bacdorslider posted:

I don't know that half the kids transfer? .. that's a huge number.   The fact is every year since I have been coming here ( 2009)  everyone has to go through the reality phase.  Mostly that Johnny is not as good as either the coach , the parent , the player thought he was and their goals were were placed to high. Maybe due to getting so much marketing thrown at them, maybe because they have no idea what they are talking about. So here's the travel ball parent test.  Pick either A or B.

1.) WWBA  and there are 40 RC's all huddled together and talking, texting, charting , are they "A" crazy  interested in "my boy"  or answer "B" comparing their fantasy football teams ?

2.) Jupiter WS  there are  50 scouts  behind the screen packed in like sardines, are "A" fighting for the front row to see how great my sons swing is  or "B" trying to stay in the shade.

3.) PBR event, pick one  they are all the same..... 100's of  RC's ...... every college team represented  10 are standing down the 3rd base line.... are they "A" watching the footwork on my stud infielder and his cannon arm,  or "B" trying to check out the sister or mom of a player and not get caught looking ?

4.)  Three weeks ago I was talking to a RC and I quote " I drove to Lake point to see a kid and not only was he terrible the team he was on and the team they were playing was terrible. " 

Here's how it works..... the big dog gotta eat first.... so the SEC then ACC and the PAC12  are going to cherry pick the best 10-12 players they can from where ever they darn well please. They have the money and they get who they want.  

Next are the Big 10 schools, some eastern schools , great schools they take the best from their area.   

Then the SEC and ACC come in again later in the recruiting cycle and take players for what they call the second tier recruits.

Next are the mid-majors, not always fully funded, but take the best in-state kids that are left and the Jucos that turned out alright.  maybe a few from neighboring states. 

If you are not getting any interest from P5 schools by your soph summer and / or interest from national travel teams, or Area Code, East Coast Pro then  you should probably start at the mid-major and work down.  Of course there is always an exception..... maybe you are it.....  Don't bother going to P5 camps, paying a ton of money.... etc....   Another true story..... player was on a recruiting visit to a nice baseball school in Kentucky and not UK.   as he and his family were being lead around they opened a door that went out onto the field... and as luck would have it, there was a camp going on.... and that's when I saw about a 50 players and parents have the uh hu  moment..... 

IF these power 5 schools want you they are not going to invite you to a camp, they are going to call you, they are going to call you daily, they are going to get you to campus "on a academic visit" and make sure they are in the office when you come by. They are going to write your offer on a dry erase board and point to it.   

I mean come on, do you know how many emails these guys get on a daily ?   If you want to answer emails go ahead, if you want to post videos go ahead.... won't do much good really.... 

Take your player to a local college and watch the games, be honest can I play with these guys, am I built like this, as fast as quick, arm as good..... and if you can get one coach or anyone to believe that your son has talent maybe he can go to bat for you.... these coaches are not going to give you 60k in money move you across the country to play D3 ball if they do not have a very good idea of who you are.    Sending tons of emails etc... it does not work that way..... they recruit you , you don't convince them... 

 

 

Agree with all of the above - except you shortchanged the Big 12.  The answers are all “B” by the way.