I have a 2021, and we are working on our list of schools. The PG site is very interesting as you can see the number of commits, by year, at each school. Some schools already have many commits for 2021. For example according to PG, Florida has 14 commits for 2021, 11 of them are position players. According to Florida’s 2019 roster of 32 players, 6 were freshmen position players. 

Assuming a roster of 35, 14  seems like a large number of commits for one year. Is this because some of them will redshirt, or decommit, or end up not making the team? Also, with this many already committed for this class, especially position players, are they likely done recruiting 2021s?  

 

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That number will probably get up to around 17/18. About 3-5 of those commits will get drafted and sign, never making it to campus. Then probably another 5-9 rostered UF players will leave for the pros. Tack on graduation and transfers unhappy with playing time and it usually works itself out. There will probably be one or two kids in that recruiting class who will be told there is no room or no more scholarship money left, it will suck but the writing was on the wall. 

Redshirts count towards the 35 man roster. Some of the non scholarship "preferred walk-ons" will get cut as well. Happens. As far as 2021s go it isn't exactly early anymore. They really only have 5 weeks left this fall and then next summer to get it done. All the big time schools like UF are close to being done or at the very least have their guys on a list that they will be getting out there to see in the coming weeks. Florida already has 10 2022 commits. By the time next summer rolls around they'll be on the 2023 class as crazy as that sounds. I would say that if your 2021 hasn't been contacted before Florida yet, it probably isn't happening. 

14 commits is pretty typical for a P5 school, and many schools have more than this.  They need a large incoming class to replenish players who get drafted, graduate, transfer, get cut, etc.  The best schools also lose some commits to the draft who never show up on campus.  Since you brought up Florida, in 2019 they had 12 freshman, 9 sophomores, 8 juniors, and 3 seniors.  I would say they are probably done with their 2021 class at this point.

As a side note, roster attrition was of the things we looked at when my son (2019 grad) was looking at schools.  We wanted him to go to a school where he could graduate with a good degree and not have to deal with transferring.  He wanted a chance to play ball for 4 years.  This analysis steered us to a surprising short list of schools.

It’s hard for top programs to hit 35 perfectly. They have to over recruit with the expectation some will sign out of high school and never get to campus.

What happens when a program has more than 35 players. Sometimes they farm players out to JuCos. Imagine thinking you're headed for a top ranked program and you end up at East Buttfart Junior College. You head to the JuCo as directed and the four year doesn’t bring you back the following year.

This happened to a former teammate/friend’s son. It wasn’t because he bombed at the JuCo. They found a freshman they preferred to give the roster spot. He ended up scrambling for a last minute roster spot and playing at a mid major.

Some mid major recruit probably got removed from the roster in the spring to make room for this kid. He was a lock to start at a mid major.

College sports can be a dog eat dog world. Don’t be caught wearing Milkbone boxers.

35 player limit.

At a P5 (and many other programs) it is assumed (by players, coaches, and families) that each will be drafted in his first draft eligible year (most as juniors, some as sophomores). Recruiting ASSUMES this as a fact; but, the reality is different as some players who actually survive three years at the school don't get drafted as planned and return as seniors.

Therefore, even if there is NO annual fallout a class needs 12 recruits to matriculate annually just to keep a full roster.

Then, recruits are added to hedge against transfers, injuries, retirements. 

Then, recruits are added to hedge for HS signed draftees and kids who were injured or didn't matriculate (perhaps due to grades/score issues).

Some coaches will recognize that there will be a few returning seniors and SUBTRACT that number from the needs of an incoming class.

So, the equation is: 12 + x + y - z, where x are non-returning players, y are the number of signed HS commits and HS commits who didn't matriculate, and z are returning seniors.

All the hedges are estimated by a coach based upon his experience. Moreover, it is in his interest to over hedge and let the consequences fall on the "marginal" recruits. (Think of an airline over booking seats during a holiday period - except without the compensation for the bump.)

I have seen incoming freshman classes of over 20. 

 

Also, note that the commitments you see on PG are only high school seniors.  Many schools add in JUCO and other transfers, they are also "incoming" in a given year.  One P5 had just over 10 players committed as of NLI signing day last fall; by this summer, their total number of incoming was over 20, including late added high school seniors, and transfers; they have 20 returning players listed on the fall roster.  So even if you had been watching carefully, you might not see it all.  I guess one possible way to gauge this is to check how many of their juniors and seniors on last year's roster were transfers.

The wild card in all this is the annual crop of JuCo players that is also brought in each fall. This varies greatly from year to year and from school to school. It is very hard to predict except at schools that are historically dependent on JuCo players. A coaching change can also result in new tendencies. JuCo transfers are now beginning to be tracked a lot better but there isn’t near as much information out there about that. So not only may a big time D1 program bring in a class of 20 freshman, they might also add 4 to 6 JuCo players to that class. As RJM said, it can be dog eat dog. You best know what you are getting into. 

mamabb0304 posted:

When do the decisions about who makes the 35 man roster typically happen?

Usually by the end of fall semester but sometimes not until early in spring semester. There is a deadline for finalizing roster but I don’t know what it is. 

If you are just looking at PG, you will also see some players that are walk-ons not preferred walk-ons.  They never sign a NLI and they are not guaranteed anything from the staff of the school.  They will go through the walk-on process which each school is required to have.  PG does not make the school say if a player is actually committed.   The player can put it on his profile.  This is not a lot but it is a few each year on most teams.  I think you also have to look at how long the coaching staff has been there.  New coaches will typically weed out the players they did not sign or bring in with their players so the numbers will be very high the first couple of years of a new coaching staff.

billsfanla posted:

Thanks, extremely helpful.  Much of this stuff is not intuitive, so this site is invaluable.  My 2021 is targeting mid-low D1&D2s on the west coast. Plan to attend the Arizona Junior Fall Classic/academic tryout in a few weeks.

One of my sons and some of my players played D2 in California.  There are a few schools that are notorious for bringing in large numbers in the Fall, many as preferred walk-ons.  It can get bloody.  Also, most schools in the two D2 conferences go heavy after JC transfers.  If you are an incoming freshman and you are not a relative stud, you can get thrown to the back of the line time after time, year after year.  Do your best to understand where the player fits.  This applies everywhere but particularly with these circumstances.

cabbagedad posted:
billsfanla posted:

Thanks, extremely helpful.  Much of this stuff is not intuitive, so this site is invaluable.  My 2021 is targeting mid-low D1&D2s on the west coast. Plan to attend the Arizona Junior Fall Classic/academic tryout in a few weeks.

One of my sons and some of my players played D2 in California.  There are a few schools that are notorious for bringing in large numbers in the Fall, many as preferred walk-ons.  It can get bloody.  Also, most schools in the two D2 conferences go heavy after JC transfers.  If you are an incoming freshman and you are not a relative stud, you can get thrown to the back of the line time after time, year after year.  Do your best to understand where the player fits.  This applies everywhere but particularly with these circumstances.

This❗️ Spot on. 

I would love for one of you knowledgeable folks to explain to this newbie the difference between a walk-on and preferred or recruited walk-on.  I hear it so often and think there are people out there that could benefit from a real explanation.  TIA!

Sure.  Also, be aware that you can search threads here by topic and this is a perfect example of a topic that has many threads that explain.

Short version - A true walk-on is someone who shows up at the fall try-out that schools have with no previous agreement or arrangement with the coaching staff - basically trying out for the team with little or no introduction.

From there, it becomes case by case.  With a preferred or recruited walk-on, the definition is what the coach states it to be but nothing is binding.  Sometimes, a coach will recruit a kid but not willing or able to offer scholarship money for any of a variety of reasons, so offers a Spring roster spot.  Sometimes, he offers full participation thru Fall with assurance that he will get every opportunity to be seen for that duration and try to make the team.  Sometimes, it is just assurance that he will get a good look in the fall.  Aside from a guaranteed Spring roster spot, each of these other scenarios puts the player in an unlikely position to make the team and get playing time.  He is behind all other players who are either on athletic scholly or guaranteed a roster spot.  All things being equal, he loses out when rosters are finalized.  In the process, he is less likely to get as much serious attention, instruction and rep opportunities than the others.

Cabbagedad, thanks. Today I analyzed a couple of lower tier west coast D1 rosters. I tracked them by class and player over about 7 years on a spreadsheet. Lots of work, but very interesting. Gives you a good sense of attrition rates, and how they use JUCO and red shirt players. 

MamaBB0304, as ADBONO stated, many roster decisions are made after Fall practice by the end of the Fall semester.  However,  the actual deadline to establish the 35-man roster is just prior to the first game of the season in February.  Some teams will keep 36-38 guys practicing with them right up until the deadline and then cut a few at the last minute.

The difficult part for those guys that are cut at the last minute is that they don't then have the opportunity to transfer out to a JUCO or a lower level four-year program at mid-year because the spring semester will obviously have started and they'll be a few weeks into the Spring term.  

Also, assuming those Division I programs follow the NCAA rules the way they're supposed to, players that are not kept on the 35-man roster are not permitted to practice or workout with the team once the season starts.  As a result, those players will have to work out on their own in order to improve their skill level.  

billsfanla posted:

Thanks, extremely helpful.  Much of this stuff is not intuitive, so this site is invaluable.  My 2021 is targeting mid-low D1&D2s on the west coast. Plan to attend the Arizona Junior Fall Classic/academic tryout in a few weeks.

If I was in California and had a player, I would look beyond California and D1 And D2. There are plenty of D3 colleges out there. Most of them are pretty full of very good Ball players, from guess what California. There are just not enough roster spots for all the California Players who want to play in California. 

Don't let that discourage anyone. The good news is there are plenty of programs outside the state that would love to have Good Baseball players from your state. They wont get the weather they have in California, however they can still have a very good baseball experience. 

 

If I was in California and had a player, I would look beyond California and D1 And D2.

This is good advice.  Even if you look at D3 there is only one conference.  Much more opportunity to the east and north.

JCG posted:

If I was in California and had a player, I would look beyond California and D1 And D2.

This is good advice.  Even if you look at D3 there is only one conference.  Much more opportunity to the east and north.

Below is the 2019 freshman Participation from California, by far the largest demographic pool.  The odds of finding a fellow Californian on a roster is good.

https://community.hsbaseballwe...ographics-california

 

 

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