As cabbagedad stated having just seen all of this go full circle with son finishing his first year in college I would say its about 50/50 for the boys I know well after their first year. You would be surprised how many are unhappy even when they played a bunch.
Truthfully to be fair I think several of these could have been avoided but others you simply won't know until you get there.
His summer team had four early commits. One drafted and in Padres org. Three others were pitchers. Only my son is at the school he committed early to. One was told 18 days before school not to report (he committed during sophomore year) and other was cut right before final spring roster announced (this was following a head coach change after signed NLI).
Remaining five or six on that team committed along the rising senior timeline. Like I said 50/50 on how satisfied they are with their choices.
Guess my point is regardless of when you commit things can and do (most likely will) go differently than expected. For me knowing everything I could about who was recruiting my son was the one way I felt like I could guide him in the process. Find players, find parents of kids who have been in program. Don't be afraid to ask questions. Good luck.