D2 Money and Freshman

Senna,

It's a good sign that you're considering this side of the equation.

Take a good hard look at the roster history and turnover at the school, and try to make a realistic assessment of where your player fits in their talent profile.
A lot of us know from experience that it's easy for a player to get lost in a large roster when the coaches have 50 other players to choose from. Even if said player is a good fit talent-wise for the program, there are numerous external factors he cannot control which can put him on the outside of the coaches circle of trust.

It's rare to find a decently high-level D2 program that doesn't carry 45 or more players, and if you go into a program like this, you need to be pretty dang sure that you can win a position.
It only really works for about 25 kids, and everyone else is just there to fill the dorms.

Some D2 programs carry over 100 kids on the roster (including JV team.) This sounds absurd, but it's not as uncommon as you would think.
The team dynamic is completely different in a program that only brings in 35 each fall.

College Baseball Insights posted a link to his excellent roster analysis and attrition page yesterday:   www.collegebaseballinsights.com/team-roster-turnover-insights/

You can change the selection boxes to Year=2021 (or previous) and Division=NCAA D2, then you can sort by Current Roster Size to get an idea who is doing this over-recruiting.

Senna,

There comes a point after you've done all your due diligence when you have to trust your "gut".  It sounds like you and your son have reached that point.   If this school checks all the boxes and can be a part of a 4-year to 40-year life plan then why not this school?   If you aren't concerned with the financial aspect and they treat ALL freshmen the same way (as a matter of stated policy by the HC) then I think there is no red flag.  Was there anything additional said or done by the HC that you question?   

There were a couple situations where my son did not feel comfortable with certain programs that offered him.   The first was when we went to a game between his future school and another future in-conference offering school.   The HC of the other offering school was constantly yelling and berating his team in a competitive close game.  Everybody in the stands could hear every word, and it was rough.   My son had met this coach at PG WWBA the previous summer and it was all smiles and giggles during the recruiting cycle.  That was a red flag.  The second situation was during an official visit where my son was almost arrested (alcohol off-campus) on an Official Visit because the baseball team did not listen to their HC.  Many players and recruits were arrested that night.  Both of these situations made his antennae go up and question the programs and HCs that offered.

Trust your gut if you've done all the necessary homework.   Eventually, you're son is going to have to take a leap of faith.   He isn't going to know everything about the program until he is in it.

JMO. Best of luck going forward!

Is he being recruited to help the team win or to participate in an extended tryout freshman year?

Thank you for the replies so far. @T_Thomas, excellent idea re: the database from CBI (and thank you, CBI). School does seem to track in line with the rest of those in conference. In the shoe leather version that I did by going between PG and their own site, it looked about the same.

Will come back and update after the visit. @fenwaysouth, this will be our first meeting/talk with the HC (the recruitment has taken place very quickly) so hopefully some of our questions (and ones that you all raised) will be answered.

I really appreciate your time/thoughts, everyone!

Post-visit update:

Staff was very kind, and very enthusiastic about son's ability to contribute to the team and help them win. Seeing him in person for the first time seemed to solidify some thoughts on his present physicality as well as his future development (noting that he's already the size/build of some of their players, and he's barely shaving).

He committed to them today. Couldn't be more happy for him, and couldn't thank this board enough.

@T_Thomas posted:

Senna,

It's a good sign that you're considering this side of the equation.

Take a good hard look at the roster history and turnover at the school, and try to make a realistic assessment of where your player fits in their talent profile.
A lot of us know from experience that it's easy for a player to get lost in a large roster when the coaches have 50 other players to choose from. Even if said player is a good fit talent-wise for the program, there are numerous external factors he cannot control which can put him on the outside of the coaches circle of trust.

It's rare to find a decently high-level D2 program that doesn't carry 45 or more players, and if you go into a program like this, you need to be pretty dang sure that you can win a position.
It only really works for about 25 kids, and everyone else is just there to fill the dorms.

Some D2 programs carry over 100 kids on the roster (including JV team.) This sounds absurd, but it's not as uncommon as you would think.
The team dynamic is completely different in a program that only brings in 35 each fall.

College Baseball Insights posted a link to his excellent roster analysis and attrition page yesterday:   www.collegebaseballinsights.com/team-roster-turnover-insights/

You can change the selection boxes to Year=2021 (or previous) and Division=NCAA D2, then you can sort by Current Roster Size to get an idea who is doing this over-recruiting.

Just a fyi,  the fall rosters were extracted at a certain point in time.

We just published NCAA-D2, here is a video explaining what is currently available.

Note, I'm going to assume most schools that have been published are pretty stable with the exception of one. ()

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XD_i4gIIDHo

Next week NAIA

@Senna posted:

Thank you for the replies so far. @T_Thomas, excellent idea re: the database from CBI (and thank you, CBI). School does seem to track in line with the rest of those in conference. In the shoe leather version that I did by going between PG and their own site, it looked about the same.

Based on all the numbers, he's in the top 20% of all position players recruited the last 4 years, and as high/higher than anyone else in his position in the past 4 years. @RJM, the language sounds like they expect him to battle for a starting spot (not just a roster spot) his freshman year. But as this is the first real in-depth pathway down the recruiting road for him, we're just trying to determine how much is real vs how much is what they say to everyone.

Will come back and update after the visit. @fenwaysouth, this will be our first meeting/talk with the HC (the recruitment has taken place very quickly) so hopefully some of our questions (and ones that you all raised) will be answered.

I really appreciate your time/thoughts, everyone!

Congrats to your son and the family.  Roster management has always been interesting and will be even more interesting in the next couple of years.

Congrats Senna and family!  Great news.

Congratulations!

@Senna posted:

Post-visit update:
He committed to them today. Couldn't be more happy for him, and couldn't thank this board enough.

Congratulations @Senna !

Congrats! 

Congrats!!

Congratulations @Senna!

Super update and news @Senna!Glad things worked out for your son.

That's great, Senna.  Congrats to you and your son!

Excellent, excited for you and your son.

@Senna posted:

...He committed to them today. Couldn't be more happy for him, and couldn't thank this board enough...

Awesome news!  Now the hard work begins :-)

Congratulations!!!