ATH I think your last sentence is exactly why a board like this exists and why youth baseball is big business. And I have said similar things about being realistic so I’m not arguing, just thinking out loud. IMHO, baseball is one of the hardest sports to be realistic about.
Why? FWIW, here’s what I think:
1. Baseball is a game where money can even out the playing field for a long time. Better equipment. Lessons. Traveling and playing against better competition or on a better team. These can prop up a player and make him appear more talented than he is or give him more exposure giving him a false sense of his true ceiling. Rankedguy might show up to college #1 in the state and be shocked to lose out to an unranked kid who couldn’t afford to go to GA every weekend. Or to a kid who leap frogs over him once that kid has access to top notch equipment, coaching and training. Unranked kid was always better, but rankedguy just didn’t know it.
2. Boys develop at vastly different rates. Best kid on my son’s Cooperstown team is nearly the same size he was at age 12. He was awesome at 12U but has been passed up in size, speed and power. THIS CONTINUES TO HAPPEN WITH BOYS WELL INTO THEIR 20s. At one point all the kids on the same Cooperstown team were within a couple of inches and 20 pounds of each other and all very near in present talent. Now there is an 10 inch, 60 pound spread and a similar spread in current ability. It is reflected in where they are all playing post HS but you would have been hard pressed to tell any of us that three years ago (the boys are 2019-2021s).
3. In addition to unfortunate injuries, there is wear and tear. The relentless circuit that starts really young and focuses on measurable (IMHO) far to young means that some kids wear out their shoulders, their elbows or their love of the game meaning they peak and decline while others are ascending.
4. There are a lot of really good players and baseball is a game of failure so sometimes it is just getting lucky that the team that needs a “YOU” sees you being the best version of you at the right time.
5. Baseball recruiting always includes assumptions on projectibilty. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they don’t.
6. The mental part. Doesn’t matter if you throw 98mph and have a perfect slider if you fall apart when one of your teammates makes an error.
7. There is alway “that guy.” The exception that gives us parents hope. That’s probably the biggest one. The one kid from Canada pitching on Friday in the SEC, the 5’4” second baseman in the MLB, the submarine pitcher throwing 83 mowing down teams in the Big 10. Hard for us to be realistic when the fantasy is out there.
It is easy for parents to focus on all the things their kid did that was similar to a an athlete going to Fancy University College without recognizing the thing they don’t do (on or off the field). We look to outside services or metrics or coaches to help us but, especially for parent who haven’t been through this before, it’s hard, especially when it is the fine line between, for example, top D2 and mid-to-lower D1.
I think this board is a great place of grace to get great, informed advice, but ultimately each family has to roll the dice based on what they know of their kid and the process and what they are willing to gamble.