Having had a son who played at a top D3 program and later served as their recruiting coordinator, I think there are a number of factors to highlight:
1.) D3 covers a very, very wide range of schools, from very large State schools in NJ, Wisc. and NY to very small and rural schools in Kentucky, GA and other places. Because of the wide variability, common themes to recruiting are challenging. In my view, how our son's get recruited, who recruits them and the opportunities to play may be quite different and need to be appreciated and approached differently based on the D3 program and coaching staff involved.
2.) Branson's point about visiting the school and watching games and practices should be a very top priority. In addition, the player and parent needs to see with a very objective perspective, not through rose colored glasses. Our son walked into a situation of a program on the rise which had won their conference for the first time and returned every starter except LF, and our son was not an outfielder. He ended up getting a pinch hit opportunity in game 1, entered the second game in the middle innings and then started every game for the rest of that season and the next 4 years.
3.) College programs, including at successful D3 schools, thrive on competition. The coaches are constantly recruiting to upgrade each position. The coaches are constantly "coaching" to challenge each returning player to be better players each year, each month, each week. Recruiting better players and pushing returning players to be better is usually an important factor in W's and L's.
4.) College coaches often love the "energy" and "competition" which freshman instill to a team. No matter how we cut it, some upperclassmen can get mentally stale, disinterested or overly confident.
5.) D3 programs which have strong regional or national academics plus strong baseball can be a major attraction (as this board and the apparent success and proliferation of Headfirst camps can attest). It is not uncommon at schools which are in high demand for far more players to show up as freshman than could be predicted during the recruiting process.
6.) Parents and especially players need to listen carefully to what is being said by the coaches during recruiting. That information needs to combine with what was seen watching practices and games and all information processed without rose coloring. Is this coaching staff truly expressing an interest in you? Are they saying things which show they know the quality of your play, where your fit with that quality and what needs to be improved to get to the level of play to be on the field as a freshman? Are they spelling out what opportunities exist during your freshman year...if you improve in the following....? Are you asking the questions which will find out if the coach knows who you are as a player, why he likes you, how does that "fit" with his team and what improvement is needed (specifics)? Is the coach truly recruiting your son (regular contact with enthusiasm) or are we making something "more" of less.
7. ) Just last night I listened to an interview with our son's former HC. They finished 3rd in Appleton in 2015 and return every starting position player. Despite that fact, he talked about this being a new year, confirmed the challenges for his freshman recruits to get on the field, but confirmed some by name will be on the field, with his job being to find them situations where that happens.
8.) No matter how hard we might try, college baseball is not usually a place where a parent can shield, protect or maneuver their son. I am thinking that rather than having a buyer beware perspective, it is more like buyer be aware! In the world of college and especially college baseball, our son's need to block out those things they cannot control, such as transfers, the number of recruits, etc. They have to control what they can, which is wanting to compete, to be a great teammate, and to do everything (and more) in the weight room, with early and later work, and during practice to be better tomorrow than they were today. Most successful college programs and coaches find spots during the rigors of a college baseball season for players who will produce and it does not matter whether they are a senior or a freshman. That opportunity might come in April rather than February. Whenever it does, it is the responsibility of the player to be ready to produce when his chance arrives.