do major league scouts place too much value in radar gun readings when judging pitching prospects
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I can't imagine the really good ones do? Unless of course a guy is throwing 110, and I don't think we have seen that yet. Didn't the Mets have a guy named Syd Finch back in the 80's who could throw everyday, and threw something called "the pitch" well above 100 mph?
syd finch was clocked at 162 mph, and it was a aprils fool joke for SI. Alot of clueless people believed it too.
Teams have drafted players all the time just based on velocity with the reasoning they can teach them control. Diamondbacks tried that recently with a high 90's mph pitcher unable to throw a strike for 2 years in college. 2006 stats, 46 walks in 13 innings with a 20. 77 ERA.
Teams have drafted players all the time just based on velocity with the reasoning they can teach them control. Diamondbacks tried that recently with a high 90's mph pitcher unable to throw a strike for 2 years in college. 2006 stats, 46 walks in 13 innings with a 20. 77 ERA.
quote:do major league scouts place too much value in radar gun readings when judging pitching prospects
Nope! They do it just right. This is not about who is right or who is wrong. This is about opinions. My opinion and your opinion are worthless. The whole draft is based upon the opinions of the scouts. Even if we could prove their method was flawed then we have gained nothing. We have to accept their methods of scouting and we need to adjust to them.
quote:Even if we could prove their method was flawed then we have gained nothing. We have to accept their methods of scouting and we need to adjust to them.
Thats my way of thinking too!
Ditto on the:
FRANK/ANDY
As a scout yourself you should know the answer---the good scouts don't need a radar gun to make a judgement/opinion on a pitcher
As a scout yourself you should know the answer---the good scouts don't need a radar gun to make a judgement/opinion on a pitcher
They do place heavy emphasis on velocity but there are exceptions. It is much harder to get interest if you do not throw 87+. That varies with the age of the pitcher and the projectability.
They don't seem to place much importance on stat unless you are a soft tosser. A ST from my son's school was signed by thye Red Sox after college and went 7-2 with a low 80s FB in his 1st year. He was released for medical reasons and was signed by the Yankees a year or so later after having an outstanding year in the Ind. Laegue.
One of the LHP from my son's college just got signed after having a tough senior year following a great JR year. He topped out at 87-88.
To me it has always appeared that it is much more difficult to get interest as a ST than a 90s guy. Yes they do believe they can teach a HT to throw strikes and they also believe that you can't teach velocity. IMO both theories are garbage.
They don't seem to place much importance on stat unless you are a soft tosser. A ST from my son's school was signed by thye Red Sox after college and went 7-2 with a low 80s FB in his 1st year. He was released for medical reasons and was signed by the Yankees a year or so later after having an outstanding year in the Ind. Laegue.
One of the LHP from my son's college just got signed after having a tough senior year following a great JR year. He topped out at 87-88.
To me it has always appeared that it is much more difficult to get interest as a ST than a 90s guy. Yes they do believe they can teach a HT to throw strikes and they also believe that you can't teach velocity. IMO both theories are garbage.
Fastest High School Pitchers
MPH HIGHEST LEVEL
Colt Griffin 101 AA
Brian Taylor 99 AA (injured)
Robbie Beckett 98 Majors 0-0 11.57 ERA
Jason Neighborgal 98 Rookie Ball
MPH HIGHEST LEVEL
Colt Griffin 101 AA
Brian Taylor 99 AA (injured)
Robbie Beckett 98 Majors 0-0 11.57 ERA
Jason Neighborgal 98 Rookie Ball
Bobble, was that Josh that signed? Who'd he sign with?
Yes I believe it was the Yankees. TJ was very happy for him after struggling last season.
That's great. He and Joey played against each other since Little League, played at rival High Schools, played travel ball together, went to the same JUCO..he's a tough kid.
TJ told me a couple weeks ago that he signed. Good to know some scouts can see past the bad season. It can happen to anyone. A couple CSU guys are playing for Brock U in my home town. Fasulo and Reynolds.
The "gun" is one tool of many that measures one attribute of many. It seems that those who have issues with the gun, has, or knows of a player that hasn't measured up with his peers with velocity. There are too many instances where pitchers with below average velocity make it.
Bobbleheaddad,
Just curious, did the players get drafted or signed as free agents?
I think there is a big difference between signing as a free agent and signing when drafted.
You keep saying signed but never say drafted.
I agree with Fungo, whatever their methods and theories are we have to accept it. Garbage or not, that is just the way it is.
Just curious, did the players get drafted or signed as free agents?
I think there is a big difference between signing as a free agent and signing when drafted.
You keep saying signed but never say drafted.
I agree with Fungo, whatever their methods and theories are we have to accept it. Garbage or not, that is just the way it is.
What difference does it make if they do?
quote:I think there is a big difference between signing as a free agent and signing when drafted.
TPM,
That confuses me.
Signed is signed, it just so happened that the draft rounds ended before they were drafted so they went as a free agent. It sounds like you might see them lower on the food chain. There are many reasons why a player is not drafted, but at the end of the day, both have signed a professional baseball contract. A FA will probably have the same opportunities as a 35th round pick.
You think it is hard enough to break through 100%
Try 60%
Fund my SAFARM
Try 60%
Fund my SAFARM
quote:Originally posted by rz1:quote:I think there is a big difference between signing as a free agent and signing when drafted.
TPM,
That confuses me.
Signed is signed, it just so happened that the draft rounds ended before they were drafted so they went as a free agent. It sounds like you might see them lower on the food chain. There are many reasons why a player is not drafted, but at the end of the day, both have signed a professional baseball contract. A FA will probably have the same opportunities as a 35th round pick.
Good point rz. Thank you for correcting me on that one.
As far as thinking them as bottom of the food chain, your thought not mine.
There are plenty of times where a LHP who is a ST IS drafted and in good rounds too.
It was not meant to slight the player. I don't know the player.
It's just that there is much more than velocity. FA pitchers are usually not drafted because they can't hit 90.
Some parents or players when reading do not realize this, it should be clarified in the post. JMO. So there is a big difference in the interpretation, even if at the end of the day they both have professional contracts.
It's the same, to me anyway, as one saying that a HS pitcher throwing 90 will end up at Big State U.
Sorry I didn't get it out the first time. That's what I meant and I do see a difference, if you can understand that.
quote:As far as thinking them as bottom of the food chain, your thought not mine.
TPM, I said lower, not the bottom, as that's where I reside
quote:FA pitchers are usually not drafted because they can't hit 90.
I would like to see where those stats came from. It may be A reason among many but to say usually is hard for me to swallow because many pitchers drafted don't throw 90 . There is a multitude of reasons a pitcher is not drafted and I would guess that lack of control and lack of a 3rd and/or 4th pitch would rank higher than velocity.
rz
i don't know this to be true. but i don't believe alot of pitchers get drafted that don't throw 90. they may live at 87-88 but at some point they hit 90 .just my opinion. they can't measure heart or character,and if your not doing something to get a look? 90 , is the number that puts you in the loop.
i don't know this to be true. but i don't believe alot of pitchers get drafted that don't throw 90. they may live at 87-88 but at some point they hit 90 .just my opinion. they can't measure heart or character,and if your not doing something to get a look? 90 , is the number that puts you in the loop.
quote:Originally posted by rz1:
quote:FA pitchers are usually not drafted because they can't hit 90.
There is a multitude of reasons a pitcher is not drafted and I would guess that lack of control and lack of a 3rd and/or 4th pitch would rank higher than velocity.
Quote by TPM:
It's just that there is much more than velocity
Didn't I say that?
You are correct there is definitly more to pitching than velocity but you followed that up by saying
and that is not true. Control, and/or lack of "other" pitches may be the main reason a pitcher is not drafted. Velocity does play a part but I don'r think you can flatly say that FA are not drafted because they can't thow 90.quote:FA pitchers are usually not drafted because they can't hit 90.
So you are saying it is all about 90?
One MUST hit that number?
In my opinion a LHP NOT throwing 90 but close to and has more gas in the tank (projectable) is definetly a prospect for scouts.
There may be other reasons, such as past injury,no movement, lack of 3rd,4th pitch, no fielding position well, makeup, etc for not being drafted, but being signed later on. It may NOT have been because he didn't throw 90.
Your turn.........
One MUST hit that number?
In my opinion a LHP NOT throwing 90 but close to and has more gas in the tank (projectable) is definetly a prospect for scouts.
There may be other reasons, such as past injury,no movement, lack of 3rd,4th pitch, no fielding position well, makeup, etc for not being drafted, but being signed later on. It may NOT have been because he didn't throw 90.
Your turn.........
quote:So you are saying it is all about 90?
One MUST hit that number?
TPM I'm quoting you! I never said that, go back and read it.
quote:TPM Quote:
FA pitchers are usually not drafted because they can't hit 90.
To understand the importance of velocity, one only needs to check the draft every year. No, you don't have to throw 90 to be successful, but which pitchers are drafted in the early rounds every year? I'm sure it has happened before, but I can't remember a single pitcher drafted out of high school in the first round who did not show at least 90 mph velocity. So no matter what anyone thinks or says... the real world is showing us the proof. It's not enough just throwing 90-100 mph, but if you have only one plus thing as a pitcher... Which one thing gets drafted the highest? (Colt Griffin) Baseball shows us what they most covet! We get to see it every June. It doesn’t matter what people say… what matters is what people do!
So pitchers who don't throw 90 have made it! Yes, they have... they just didn't get drafted in the money rounds. Can anyone think of an exception? A below average fastball guy who was drafted in the first few rounds! A pitcher who had great control, great curve ball, great change up, crafty, deceptive, good movement and a below average velocity fastball? Surely there must have been one?
So pitchers who don't throw 90 have made it! Yes, they have... they just didn't get drafted in the money rounds. Can anyone think of an exception? A below average fastball guy who was drafted in the first few rounds! A pitcher who had great control, great curve ball, great change up, crafty, deceptive, good movement and a below average velocity fastball? Surely there must have been one?
Jason Windsor - Cal State Fullerton - might have maxed at 86 and was steady at 84-85 as he whipped up on Texas to take the NCAA championship. I think he was taken in the 3rd or 4th round.
PG,
I agree with you 100%. Pitchers must show 90 to get drafted in the money rounds.
But we all know that soft tossing pitchers do get drafted in lower rounds. Most likely not due to velocity, but other traits they posess.
Having trouble getting my point across I suppose. Something else, besides lack of velocity prevents a player from not getting drafted, would you agree? You can't blame it all on not hitting 90.
rz,
You seem to have an issue of picking apart my posts, not just this one. But I may have not been all that good in replying as to what I relly menat. So whatever it is, rock, paper, scissors..... you win.
I agree with you 100%. Pitchers must show 90 to get drafted in the money rounds.
But we all know that soft tossing pitchers do get drafted in lower rounds. Most likely not due to velocity, but other traits they posess.
Having trouble getting my point across I suppose. Something else, besides lack of velocity prevents a player from not getting drafted, would you agree? You can't blame it all on not hitting 90.
rz,
You seem to have an issue of picking apart my posts, not just this one. But I may have not been all that good in replying as to what I relly menat. So whatever it is, rock, paper, scissors..... you win.
quote:rz,
You seem to have an issue of picking apart my posts, not just this one. But I may have not been all that good in replying as to what I relly menat. So whatever it is, rock, paper, scissors..... you win.
TPM, This is not about winning. It is not about me picking apart your post it's about me and other posters understanding your thoughts. It wouldn't matter if it was any other poster I would bring up the same issues. You happen to be an active poster with opinions and I would expect that anyone on this site who posts an opinion be expected to defend it. I'm called to the carpet constantly here and I have no problem either defending my opinion, clarifying it, or taking my lumps when I'm wrong. That is part of evolving and expanding your ideas, it is nothing personal. The cliche holds so true
My job in life is not to disagree with you. I do however want to understand you, and because you do offer many thoughts on this site you should be expected to defend them so everyone can understand them. Why leave it open that you are not understood?quote:If you can talk the talk, you better be able to walk the walk
I respect your thoughts and agree with them more often than not, but this is a message board where people are expected to interact. It's not fair that you can question someones comment but I can't question yours.
TPM sorry I couldn't respond to your question.
I said signed and that was after 4 years of college.
I agree that 90 ish is needed to get drafted and that was really what this post was about. Yes scouts do tend to put heavy emphasis on 90+ when drafting guys out of HS.
Guys that I mentioned like Jeff Francis developed into great pitchers who were not drafted mostly because of velocity. Francis couldn't even get a US college to scholarship him. I haves een LHPs drafted with 87-88 FB but not in the money rounds. I also see lots of 90 mph pitchers who did not get drafted and others who couldn't pitch if their life depended on it. One my son played against and he was aufull. One guy was so bad no one wanted to get in the batters box. He was drafted and play7ed in the Cuban league and was carrying on the usuall double digit era.
Their are lots of things I feel are wrong with pro bvall and that is one of them the other is the constant trading of players you become familiar with . The Jays are brutal and yes they are finally spending some money to try and compete but they have traded away some of the greats like Chris Carpenter. I have followed Vernon Wells when he played here in A ball and many others just to see them get traded because it makes financial sense. I would rather watch college or amateur ball any day.
I said signed and that was after 4 years of college.
I agree that 90 ish is needed to get drafted and that was really what this post was about. Yes scouts do tend to put heavy emphasis on 90+ when drafting guys out of HS.
Guys that I mentioned like Jeff Francis developed into great pitchers who were not drafted mostly because of velocity. Francis couldn't even get a US college to scholarship him. I haves een LHPs drafted with 87-88 FB but not in the money rounds. I also see lots of 90 mph pitchers who did not get drafted and others who couldn't pitch if their life depended on it. One my son played against and he was aufull. One guy was so bad no one wanted to get in the batters box. He was drafted and play7ed in the Cuban league and was carrying on the usuall double digit era.
Their are lots of things I feel are wrong with pro bvall and that is one of them the other is the constant trading of players you become familiar with . The Jays are brutal and yes they are finally spending some money to try and compete but they have traded away some of the greats like Chris Carpenter. I have followed Vernon Wells when he played here in A ball and many others just to see them get traded because it makes financial sense. I would rather watch college or amateur ball any day.
BTJohnson,
Good one! Jason Windsor is a great example of a below average fastball guy getting drafted in an early round (Third). However, he signed for the lowest amount of anyone in that round as a college senior. Signability was not an issue. Hewas drafted out of high school in the 43rd round and I think the following year he was drafted again in the 43rd round out junior college. He then went two years without being drafted.
An example... a high school catcher who was converted into a pitcher was drafted later in that same round and signed for a much higher bonus. Chris Garcia did throw in the 90s, but didn’t really have much of a background as far as pitching goes.
No doubt that Windsor had the better performance and results. He was one of the top pitchers at the very highest level of college baseball. He also pitched great at AAA and has already had a short stint in the Big leagues.
But despite his talent, here are some of the things that took place in the 2004 draft.
Well over 40 pitchers went in the first two rounds… all were 90 or better guys. Very few were as good a pitcher as Windsor.
Usually the third round is where you first see a finesse type pitcher or two get drafted but only if they are outstanding in college. In the same round Windsor was drafted in 2004…Six high school pitchers were drafted before him in the 3rd round… None anywhere near as good a pitcher… All six of those pitchers threw 90 or better and received much higher signing bonus.
So back to the original question that started this thread…
History tells us they do!
Good one! Jason Windsor is a great example of a below average fastball guy getting drafted in an early round (Third). However, he signed for the lowest amount of anyone in that round as a college senior. Signability was not an issue. Hewas drafted out of high school in the 43rd round and I think the following year he was drafted again in the 43rd round out junior college. He then went two years without being drafted.
An example... a high school catcher who was converted into a pitcher was drafted later in that same round and signed for a much higher bonus. Chris Garcia did throw in the 90s, but didn’t really have much of a background as far as pitching goes.
No doubt that Windsor had the better performance and results. He was one of the top pitchers at the very highest level of college baseball. He also pitched great at AAA and has already had a short stint in the Big leagues.
But despite his talent, here are some of the things that took place in the 2004 draft.
Well over 40 pitchers went in the first two rounds… all were 90 or better guys. Very few were as good a pitcher as Windsor.
Usually the third round is where you first see a finesse type pitcher or two get drafted but only if they are outstanding in college. In the same round Windsor was drafted in 2004…Six high school pitchers were drafted before him in the 3rd round… None anywhere near as good a pitcher… All six of those pitchers threw 90 or better and received much higher signing bonus.
So back to the original question that started this thread…
quote:Do major league scouts place too much value in radar gun readings
History tells us they do!
Baseball is big business. Getting the draft right is a big part of an organization’s success. If there were a better way to do it, I am sure they are looking for it. There will never be a perfect system for evaluating pitchers. However, the only completely objective component for scouting pitchers is the radar gun – assuming that the results were not drug induced. The bottom line is that there are more 90 mph plus pitchers available for each draft then there are spots available. The good news is that someone like Jason Windsor can be successful – get drafted and demonstrate he belongs there. There is hope for those with below average speed.
Arm strength number one, however, "You just have to recognize the exception to the rule."
Good point PG Jerry, where is BB? The NATS may have stopped the personnel from posting.
Shep
Good point PG Jerry, where is BB? The NATS may have stopped the personnel from posting.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
I can't remember a single pitcher drafted out of high school in the first round who did not show at least 90 mph velocity. So no matter what anyone thinks or says... the real world is showing us the proof. It's not enough just throwing 90-100 mph, but if you have only one plus thing as a pitcher... Which one thing gets drafted the highest? (Colt Griffin) Baseball shows us what they most covet! We get to see it every June. It doesn’t matter what people say… what matters is what people do!
So pitchers who don't throw 90 have made it! Yes, they have... they just didn't get drafted in the money rounds. Can anyone think of an exception? A below average fastball guy who was drafted in the first few rounds! A pitcher who had great control, great curve ball, great change up, crafty, deceptive, good movement and a below average velocity fastball? Surely there must have been one?
Folks may not like it - but that is the truth IMO.
And from someone like PG who has seen lots and lots of young players come and go - and a few stay.
IMO.
Its,
The thing that bothers me about these discussions is I wonder how many young players read this stuff. Being truthful without giving the whole story isn’t always the best way to help young players. It could cause someone to work too much on the wrong things or worse yet, to give up.
Some could take this info and think their only chance is to throw with abnormal velocity. Throwing with great velocity does seem to be important when it comes to the draft and being recruited by top college programs. But there are many (too many to count) who became very good College and even Major League pitchers without 90+ velocity. In the end the ability to pitch is more important than throwing a certain velocity. We see more hard throwers every year than we see excellent pitchers. Excellent pitchers do standout.
The thing that bothers me about these discussions is I wonder how many young players read this stuff. Being truthful without giving the whole story isn’t always the best way to help young players. It could cause someone to work too much on the wrong things or worse yet, to give up.
Some could take this info and think their only chance is to throw with abnormal velocity. Throwing with great velocity does seem to be important when it comes to the draft and being recruited by top college programs. But there are many (too many to count) who became very good College and even Major League pitchers without 90+ velocity. In the end the ability to pitch is more important than throwing a certain velocity. We see more hard throwers every year than we see excellent pitchers. Excellent pitchers do standout.
PG, I share your sentiments. Are there numbers relating to the five tools that kids should identify with? Especially regarding Jucos, DIII, and DII's.
That is absolutely FANTASTIC about Josh 
He struggled in Sr year due to injury, and that hurt his consistency later in the season. Jr year he was "lights out" and carried the staff. Losses were more due to E's or lack of hitting.
Great Kid and Great Family!!!!!!
As for RJ he was drafted by RSox as a JR in 14th round, with that low 80's FB. He flat out could pitch, put that 68 MPH curve thru a key hole.
90+ and big is what they dream of but if you can pitch, someone will find you.
Again, Congrats to Josh and Family!!!!
Great Kid and Great Family!!!!!!
As for RJ he was drafted by RSox as a JR in 14th round, with that low 80's FB. He flat out could pitch, put that 68 MPH curve thru a key hole.
90+ and big is what they dream of but if you can pitch, someone will find you.
Again, Congrats to Josh and Family!!!!
Hey Falcon how are you ? How is your4 son doing? PM me if you get a chance.
TJ was very happy when he heard Josh signed.
TJ was very happy when he heard Josh signed.
TDad,
Sorry I'm not sure what you mean.
If someone is a very good player, there is a place for him in college baseball. It might not be a top 40 DI school, but there is a place.
I see many players every year that don't have a single average tool. Some of these are players I would definitely recruit if I were a college coach. In fact, I used to do just that back when I coached. The reason... some kids just plain know how to play baseball. Some kids are just plain winners.
These kids show up all the time and do nothing very impressive during the workout portion. Some don't even have good bodies, let alone good tools. Then you play the games and everything changes!
I'm always much better giving examples than trying to explain in other ways.
We once had a second baseman from Texas go to our World Showcase. He didn't run real well, he threw OK, he had a less than good body, he didn't look like he much power, etc., etc. He even had bad hair and didn't look like a ball player at all.
After watching him all weekend, the bell rang loudly!
I called a few college coaches who mentioned they still needed an infielder. One DI in the Missouri Valley I told to do what it takes to get this player. Take my word for it... when you first see him you'll think... Oh no! Then you'll thank me later because this kid will be a college all american. They thought about it, but nothing came out of it.
The kid ended up at Blinn Junior College where he was their best player. Then to Sam Houston State where he was conference newcomer of the year. Then finished at U of Houston his senior year.
Then being a senior without the outstanding body or tools he was drafted very late (43th round) and signed with the Cardinals for very little money. Last year was his first year in pro ball and he was assigned to the Appalachian League. He led the league in hitting, striking out only 13 times in close to 200 abs. He was also the best defensive 2B in the league.
Isaias Garcia is a baseball player! He was one that couldn't be judged by looks or tools. I hope he makes it to the Big Leagues.
Sorry I'm not sure what you mean.
If someone is a very good player, there is a place for him in college baseball. It might not be a top 40 DI school, but there is a place.
I see many players every year that don't have a single average tool. Some of these are players I would definitely recruit if I were a college coach. In fact, I used to do just that back when I coached. The reason... some kids just plain know how to play baseball. Some kids are just plain winners.
These kids show up all the time and do nothing very impressive during the workout portion. Some don't even have good bodies, let alone good tools. Then you play the games and everything changes!
I'm always much better giving examples than trying to explain in other ways.
We once had a second baseman from Texas go to our World Showcase. He didn't run real well, he threw OK, he had a less than good body, he didn't look like he much power, etc., etc. He even had bad hair and didn't look like a ball player at all.
After watching him all weekend, the bell rang loudly!
I called a few college coaches who mentioned they still needed an infielder. One DI in the Missouri Valley I told to do what it takes to get this player. Take my word for it... when you first see him you'll think... Oh no! Then you'll thank me later because this kid will be a college all american. They thought about it, but nothing came out of it.
The kid ended up at Blinn Junior College where he was their best player. Then to Sam Houston State where he was conference newcomer of the year. Then finished at U of Houston his senior year.
Then being a senior without the outstanding body or tools he was drafted very late (43th round) and signed with the Cardinals for very little money. Last year was his first year in pro ball and he was assigned to the Appalachian League. He led the league in hitting, striking out only 13 times in close to 200 abs. He was also the best defensive 2B in the league.
Isaias Garcia is a baseball player! He was one that couldn't be judged by looks or tools. I hope he makes it to the Big Leagues.
quote:Originally posted by Frank Martin:
do major league scouts place too much value in radar gun readings when judging pitching prospects
Most do, but the smart and progressive ones don't. However, probably something like 80 to 90 percent of scouts won't even think about you if you can't hit 90 for a RHP or 85 for a LHP.