Do stats matter?

I think the only way they matter is that bad stats can keep him off the mound, or get him relagated to mop up status or 'long relief guy'

quote:

Originally posted by T-T:
…When do stats start to matter for a pitcher wanting to advance to the next level?...

Regardless of what many people believe, stats always “matter”. The things is though, they matter differently to different people, because there are so many different perspectives. But what one needs to understand about stats is, they are the only measure there is of a player’s execution of his skills, and they come in a variety of forms, some of which aren’t recognizable to everyone.

Here’s a good example of how different they can be seen.

quote:

Not going to get into what they all are but his ERA is high and his opposing BA is .400 (but has a good amount of strikeouts).

You obviously value ERA, opposing BA, and Ks as indicators of performance, otherwise you wouldn’t have mentioned them. But that’s what usually happens, so let’s take a quick look at them. A high ERA indicates a lot of runners reaching base safely by virtue of a hit, a walk, or a hit batter, all of which are direct results of something pitcher failed to do. Throw a strike the hitter couldn’t make solid contact with, and that seems to be validated by the high opponent’s BA. A “good” amount of Ks isn’t a “lot” of Ks, and the choice of words sometimes tells a lot.

My “guess” is, if anyone at a higher level contacts his coaches and asks if they have any pitchers they think might do well at the next level, your son’s name won’t be the 1st one that pops into their mind, and that’ll be largely because of his stats, because they're indicative of his performance.

Now I have a question I hope you’ll be able to answer. On his college and summer teams, who calls pitches, and is he free to shake off any pitch any time? The reason I ask is, there is a possibility that the pitches he’s being asked to throw aren’t the best pitches he should be throwing in many situations. FI, if he tends to miss up and to his throwing hand side with his 2 seamer, it might not be a good idea to call for a 2 seamer low and away to the #4 hitter on the other team, with a runner on 2nd, a 2-1 count, and no outs.

quote:

Originally posted by T-T:
Son is a D1 (mid major) junior RHP. When do stats start to matter for a pitcher wanting to advance to the next level? Do they ever?

Son is not having a great year stat wise (was a mostly a mid week starter & middle relief role on weekend during the collegiate season and now a starter again on his summer team). Not going to get into what they all are but his ERA is high and his opposing BA is .400 (but has a good amount of strikeouts).

He throws in the low 90's and has pretty good secondary pitches. I believe his problem is that he is too predictable at times and always seems to have that one "blow up inning" that ruins his day.

They say that stats for a pitcher do not matter when moving on from HS to college, but what about college to pro ball? Is it always about a pitchers "stuff" for them to move on or be drafted?

Thoughts?

Your son might just need some adjustments. Sometimes it takes others longer. I have seen many more college pitchers get drafted for their stuff than their stats.

Regardless of what was said here, keep in mind that a lot more goes into reaching the next level than a players stats. For pitchers it would be about "his stuff", more than about his "stats". More importantly would be about what pitches he throws for strikes, his use of his FB, seconday pitches, movement, command, and yes who is calling the pitches. Some pitchers get burned by defense, some pitcher have a harder time when their is no offense that day. There is a whole bunch of stuff that goes into who moves forward and who doesn't.

Don't let anyone get you down who posts on a message board (or more) that would tell you that if someone called your sons coach for who could go to the next level it would not include your son. This person knows nothing about your son, his situation.

Your sons stats will not necessarily prevent him from getting drafted, it may affect his draft position, but again if a scout feels he has the right "stuff" against wood that can be DEVELOPED, anything is possible.

I understand about the inning blow ups, they all have them. One bad inning surely will affect stats, but does that really matter in getting a scout to notice and like your stuff or how you conduct yourself on or off the mound, NO!

Stats4Gnats - Good observation.

I mention those mainly because I'm not much of a "stat guy" so those kind of stand out to me. I've been mostly a physical performance and player development kind of person. I know playing on weak teams - that some plays "should" be made in the field - do not get made (no error is given), but the pitcher suffers for it (in the stats).

That's the job so you deal with it and that's how it goes.

But that is just an example (I feel) how stats cannot always be indicative of how good a player is or is not.

Regardless I think you made some good points. Son was dominant coming out of HS (and had what I would call good stats). But I've always been told (and believed) that the stats didn't really matter and what type of tools he had did. So I continued with that "philosophy".

Sons first year of collegiate ball wasn't that great (stat wise) but his soph year was great "stat wise". He continued to develop physically and his tools got better also (better velo and feel for the game).

Currently at his best (velo wise) but is having "stat issues". Coaches call pitches on college team (he can occasionally shake off but better "have a good reason"). Summer team - catcher calls the game for the most part and son can shake off if he wants to (this is one area where I feel he needs to get better at - how to handle hitters and what pitches to throw).

So I'm not sure how much a pro scout would get influenced by ("bad") stats from a player, if the player have some physical tools to work with.

Thanks.

quote:

Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
My “guess” is, if anyone at a higher level contacts his coaches and asks if they have any pitchers they think might do well at the next level, your son’s name won’t be the 1st one that pops into their mind, and that’ll be largely because of his stats, because they're indicative of his performance.

I'm not so sure I would jump to that conclusion.

I too, thought the .400 BA was a high number. However, I believe a good scout/coach could look at a player with bad stats and still see potential and projectability.

Didn't an AL pitcher win a Cy Young recently with a losing record? That's a bad stat.

Stats are an important part of the game, as they attempt to quantify a player's/team's success.

SIERA has been found to correlate best with future success with pitchers (given a large enough sample size).

W,L,ERA etc (for pitchers) are a little outdated, at least at the professional level.

For a small taste:
http://www.baseballprospectus.....php?articleid=10027

I've seen a pitcher who didn't throw an inning in his college season (not injury, but poor control) get drafted in the mid rounds...he also threw 95. He was also 'pumped' by his college coaches to the scouts. (They wanted him to move on).

I've seen a college pitcher who was the MVP of his college team (top-25) with great stats get drafted after the 30th round...he also threw 85.

And I've seen a college pitcher who pitched a moderate amount, with terrible stats, who a scout told me that they would 'fix' get drafted in the top 10 rounds...he threw 95...and they never 'fixed' him.

What does it all mean? It means Mr. stats4gnats has it right...but unlike he believes...only some of the time...maybe? No absolutes. Pitcher pumping low 90s consistently (is that his peak number or his cruising number?) has a shot at the next level. But at some point, he's gonna have to get outs.

quote:

Originally posted by justbaseball:
I've seen a pitcher who didn't throw an inning in his college season (not injury, but poor control) get drafted in the mid rounds...he also threw 95. He was also 'pumped' by his college coaches to the scouts. (They wanted him to move on).

I've seen a college pitcher who was the MVP of his college team (top-25) with great stats get drafted after the 30th round...he also threw 85.

And I've seen a college pitcher who pitched a moderate amount, with terrible stats, who a scout told me that they would 'fix' get drafted in the top 10 rounds...he threw 95...and they never 'fixed' him.

What does it all mean? It means Mr. stats4gnats has it right...but unlike he believes...only some of the time...maybe? No absolutes. Pitcher pumping low 90s consistently (is that his peak number or his cruising number?) has a shot at the next level. But at some point, he's gonna have to get outs.

Yes I've heard all these stories too (BTW he cruises 87-90 topping at 94.). I'm just starting to second guess myself because of the apparent lack of interest (or perceived lack) from pro scouts.

It is quite possible that his control (or lack there of and the ability to get outs) is causing it.

It is also quite possible that I do not see what is going on "behind the scenes" with that end of this journey.

If your son has upside some MLB scout believes in he may get drafted. The questions to ask yourself are ... How many other college pitchers is my son just like? What can a scout see in him that's different? Can something be tweaked to improve his performance? What's his upside that he hasn't reached yet?

If he has the physical size and velocity there's always hope. He could throw impressively enough just one day and draw attention. A friend struck out fifteen in a game the scouts were in attendance to watch the opposing stud. It was the fourth game he ever pitched. He was drafted in the 20's. He was converted from catcher to pitcher the second half of high school senior season due to pitching injuries.

quote:

Originally posted by T-T:

Yes I've heard all these stories too (BTW he cruises 87-90 topping at 94.). I'm just starting to second guess myself because of the apparent lack of interest (or perceived lack) from pro scouts.

What league is your son playing in? He should be using this time to work on his stuff for when he goes back to school. Keep in mind the draft is a year away, lots of stuff can happen in one year.

What is going on behind the scenes? Is he working on "stuff" to get better, if so you are going to have negative results in games before you get positive ones.

RJM is correct, your sons physical size and upside also has a lot to do with it.

You can't control what is happening, all you can do is be supportive, the rest has a way of taking care of itself.