Do you like the shift?

Dominik85 posted:

What are your thoughts on the shift? Is it "cheating"? Or just a smart adjustment? Definitely taking away from the lefty advantage. Manfred even hinted banning it but now that offense is up due to hr it probably won't happen.

 Would it be good for baseball if you forced a traditional alignment so that not certain types of hitters are at a disadvantage? Nba also used to forced teams to use certain types of defense so it is possible (like saying at least two infielders need to stay to the left of the imaginary home to second line).

 The shift is nothing new and is nothing more than a defense making some kind of adjustment based on what they believe has a good chance of happening. There’s absolutely no difference in employing a shift than there is in throwing pitches a batter is known to not hit well. It’s a defense looking for an edge. The difference is, the chances a shift will cause a hitter problems is a lot better than a certain type of pitch will.

 There’s a very simple way to mitigate the advantage a shift gives the defense. Hit the ball the other way! If hitters weren’t so controlled by testosterone and had IQs higher than a rock, they’d take what was given to them and laugh all the way to 1^st base.

 I don’t think it would be good for baseball at all to mandate more defensive alignments than are already in the rule book. All it would do is give a bunch of whiners who don’t have the skill or desire to improve the easy way out.

1. I hate the shift

2. If a hitter refuses to adjust they deserve to face it, it isn't hard to beat.

3. Do you also hate no doubles and infield up? 

Re: beating the shift

Teams would prefer a stud hitter drive four singles the other way versus possibly driving a ball or two over the fence. It's why they shift.

Problem is is that pulled balls are generally more productive and powerfull than opposite field hits. Now you can elevate over the shift but if you pull with an uppercut you will naturally be out front too much on a good number of balls and hit top spun grounders.

So the shift takes away pull field and a good part of the middle part of the field on grounders and also some on line drives (since the 2b is much deeper and can snag some out of the air).

To beat the shift the hitters would probably need to sacrifice some power.

It is not clear whether changing the approach is good if you are a strong power hitter. If you hit the other way you might gain a few obp points but you lose slugging points.

Do you want your first baseman to hit 18 hr instead of 30 for 15 OBP points?

RJM posted:

Re: beating the shift

Teams would prefer a stud hitter drive four singles the other way versus possibly driving a ball or two over the fence. It's why they shift.

I don't believe that for a moment, teams realize stud can't or won't take 4 singles or double or homers the other way. Very fundamental difference. 

Dominik85 posted:

Problem is is that pulled balls are generally more productive and powerfull than opposite field hits. Now you can elevate over the shift but if you pull with an uppercut you will naturally be out front too much on a good number of balls and hit top spun grounders.

More powerful perhaps, but more productive? I suppose it depends on how you define productive, but I wonder if a higher percentage of pulled balls are really more productive than the percentage of opposite field BIPs.

…To beat the shift the hitters would probably need to sacrifice some power.

So what? If it would produce more runs who would care? The team sure wouldn’t, but I suspect the individual player would.

It is not clear whether changing the approach is good if you are a strong power hitter. If you hit the other way you might gain a few obp points but you lose slugging points.

Do you want your first baseman to hit 18 hr instead of 30 for 15 OBP points?

If that was all there was to it I suppose you’d be correct. But is that all there is to it?

If it did not work in MLB they would not do it. Does a team get burned badly now and then and look stupid? You bet!

Anecdotally, my son was on a 14u team and ripping the ball in a DH. Hard, low LD up the middle single, LD double to right-center (bats LH), LD triple to RF. Next AB, hits a hard LD to right center, nd the CF was standing right there waiting for it; barely moved. My son looked like "you can't do that!" Hah.

Batty67 posted:

If it did not work in MLB they would not do it. Does a team get burned badly now and then and look stupid? You bet!

Anecdotally, my son was on a 14u team and ripping the ball in a DH. Hard, low LD up the middle single, LD double to right-center (bats LH), LD triple to RF. Next AB, hits a hard LD to right center, nd the CF was standing right there waiting for it; barely moved. My son looked like "you can't do that!" Hah.

I think they work either way. Either they cost you obp if you pull the ball or they cost you slugging if you go the other way. 

At lower levels obp is king and power doesn't play a big role but in mlb both are equally as important because it is hard there to string together singles and walks with all the Ks that happen there. 

RJM posted:

Re: beating the shift

Teams would prefer a stud hitter drive four singles the other way versus possibly driving a ball or two over the fence. It's why they shift.

I believe RJM is spot on.  From what I have seen at college and professional level OPS is the key to offense.  If as a defense I can do something to make you think about lowering your slugging percentage I will take it.  Look at slugging percentage and I believe the correlation between it and scoring runs is extremely high.

Also think about who tends to get shifted on.  Most of those guys are average or below average runners.  Therefore they are not in scoring position at first base even on a ball in the gap.  As the hitter in that situation with one or two outs my job is to get on second base or hit one out so smoothing one to the other side is undesirable.  Big difference in runs scored from second base and one out vs. first base and one out.

Great topic to debate.  Like weighted balls, long toss, distance running, etc. it is what makes baseball the great sport it is to talk about.

So player, any player learns to hit oppo vs the shift and is hitting about .600 against it....which most player with that kind of talent can learn do to it. You guys are going to tell me other teams are just going to stay in becasuse at least your power numbers are down? Doesn't hold water in my opinion 

Do you have a data source to support that statement Old School?

i would argue at the professional level where these shifts are employed you could vacate an entire side of the field and with strikeouts (which players that get shifted on likely strikeout at rate of 40-50%) and no one would hit .600. 

I think we can all agree that there is data to support what the shifting team does.  Intuitively it seems that there is data that also supports that most batters should not modify their approach or they would be forced to do it by the organization.  Both parties will do what gives them the best chance to win. 

One man's opinion. 

BackstopDad32 posted:

Do you have a data source to support that statement Old School?

i would argue at the professional level where these shifts are employed you could vacate an entire side of the field and with strikeouts (which players that get shifted on likely strikeout at rate of 40-50%) and no one would hit .600. 

I think we can all agree that there is data to support what the shifting team does.  Intuitively it seems that there is data that also supports that most batters should not modify their approach or they would be forced to do it by the organization.  Both parties will do what gives them the best chance to win. 

One man's opinion. 

what is the league leaders in slugging and OPS maybe .600 and 1.0 or 1.1 respectively. you would absolutely get higher values to both of those by learning ways to beat the shift. you reference K's and lack of power but what about walks and raised batting average?

if you notice they aren't shifting everyone, they are shifting guys who have proven to be one dimensional hitters, if those same one dimensional hitters realized they can break shift anytime they chose to...no wait common sense is coming back into the equation again.

Just keep doing the same old thing and expect different results.

In a couple words...abso-freaking-lutely yes!  It is the game within the game and forces a team to adjust to a competitive situation.   The shift is life.  Get used to it.

fenwaysouth posted:

In a couple words...abso-freaking-lutely yes!  It is the game within the game and forces a team to adjust to a competitive situation.   The shift is life.  Get used to it.

 

not sure what exactly your point but I may agree with it!

I don't like it, and I think MLB should outlaw the practice.  I think they should view it like an illegal defense in the NBA.  Getting rid of the practice would most likely mean more HR's, and as Tom Glavine & Greg Maddux say, "Chicks dig the Long Ball!"

For anyone who thinks it should be outlawed, please provide a very basic set of "Rules" as to what would be and what would not be allowed.  Do you simply not let the MIF cross a line running from HP to 2B?  And what about all those second basemen playing in the grass - might as well outlaw that also.  Oh yea, neither 1B nor 3B can come in on the grass when they are covering a bunt.  Still trying to work out all the rules and parameters - might need to resort to shock collars/invisible fence unless we want to start adding a bunch of extra chalk lines to the field.

I do think they should all be required to play within the baselines, but not a fan of dictating precisely where they wish to stand on the field.

BackstopDad32 posted:

…Intuitively it seems that there is data that also supports that most batters should not modify their approach or they would be forced to do it by the organization.   …

Either that or the organizations know how difficult it is for hitters to change whatever style a lifetime has created and don’t want to lose whatever it was they originally paid for while the change is taking place.

Stats4Gnats posted:

BackstopDad32 posted:

…Intuitively it seems that there is data that also supports that most batters should not modify their approach or they would be forced to do it by the organization.   …

Either that or the organizations know how difficult it is for hitters to change whatever style a lifetime has created and don’t want to lose whatever it was they originally paid for while the change is taking place.

Yep. Many baseball people I listen and talk to say changing to the approach that some suggest simply is not that easy. 

A team my son's team played this spring completely vacated RF for a series. The hitters knew no one was over there but factors such as location, count, etc all impact being able to go over there. 

As the dad of a defensive minded MI, vote me "YES" for liking the shift. It's part of the strategy in the game.  Hitters should make adjustments just as pitches do. Didn't seem to bother ole #9 of the Red Sox.  Here's a more recent example in which a hitter beat the shift (twice) from the world championship team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tfn_e-WtaDs

^Why are they set up outside with the shift on?  The shift only works when the P/C can execute their part of it.  You have to pitch inside and off speed.  

As a hitter I would love the shift.  It gives me a chance to practice bunting.  

Yes if you can bunt or slap 500 it does pay off, that would be a 1000 ops and that is trout level.

However it is not easy to do that against 90+. You don't have half of the field to place the ball, the middle and slightly left of that is closed too

https://images.google.de/imgre...p;source=sh%2Fx%2Fim

Realistically that leaves one third of the field to place the ball which is not that easy to do especially if pitchers pitch to the shift and pitch you inside (or low and away to some hitters who will roll over and still pull it).

2017LHPscrewball posted:

For anyone who thinks it should be outlawed, please provide a very basic set of "Rules" as to what would be and what would not be allowed.  Do you simply not let the MIF cross a line running from HP to 2B?  And what about all those second basemen playing in the grass - might as well outlaw that also.  Oh yea, neither 1B nor 3B can come in on the grass when they are covering a bunt.  Still trying to work out all the rules and parameters - might need to resort to shock collars/invisible fence unless we want to start adding a bunch of extra chalk lines to the field.

I do think they should all be required to play within the baselines, but not a fan of dictating precisely where they wish to stand on the field.

Seems like a pretty argumentative response, but I will give it a go.  My answer was simply outlaw it just like they have an illegal defense in the NBA. In the NBA the rule is specifically to that little spot in the key.  Same thing here.  You don't have to outlaw every little defensive scheme, like you can't pick them up before the half court line, yada, yada, yada. 

I just don't like the rule, and I think it hurts the offense.  With the pitchers constantly throwing harder, I think the offense is at a disadvantage.  Most outlying fans, not the diehards, would like to see more offense, and this is one way to increase runs. 

I know Kyle Schwarber doesn't like it

BackstopDad32 posted:

Yep. Many baseball people I listen and talk to say changing to the approach that some suggest simply is not that easy. …

Kinda makes ya wonder how there could be such a big disagreement between people knowledgeable about the game, some of whom believe it’s fairly easy for hitters to change their style and those who believe it’s hard.

I tend to believe if it was so easy to do, there’d be a lot more guys who could hit like Ted Williams or Mike Trout.

Ever notice the players that don't get shifted on much?  Learn to hit with power to all fields.  Easier said than done but that is the answer, and the next wave of talent coming up has been working on that very thing for years

The games adjusts, and adjusts back

rynoattack posted:

2017LHPscrewball posted:

For anyone who thinks it should be outlawed, please provide a very basic set of "Rules" as to what would be and what would not be allowed.  Do you simply not let the MIF cross a line running from HP to 2B?  And what about all those second basemen playing in the grass - might as well outlaw that also.  Oh yea, neither 1B nor 3B can come in on the grass when they are covering a bunt.  Still trying to work out all the rules and parameters - might need to resort to shock collars/invisible fence unless we want to start adding a bunch of extra chalk lines to the field.

I do think they should all be required to play within the baselines, but not a fan of dictating precisely where they wish to stand on the field.

Seems like a pretty argumentative response, but I will give it a go.  My answer was simply outlaw it just like they have an illegal defense in the NBA. In the NBA the rule is specifically to that little spot in the key.  Same thing here.  You don't have to outlaw every little defensive scheme, like you can't pick them up before the half court line, yada, yada, yada. 

I just don't like the rule, and I think it hurts the offense.  With the pitchers constantly throwing harder, I think the offense is at a disadvantage.  Most outlying fans, not the diehards, would like to see more offense, and this is one way to increase runs. 

My effort at humor apparently fell short.  That said, if you wish to "outlaw" the shift, then you realistically would have to define precisely what is being outlawed.  I get the sense that you seem to feel that some "shading" or "positioning" would be fine, just not past a certain point.  If you go there, someone has to define precisely what that point is when something goes from legal to illegal.  Then, based on what might realistically be made illegal (say - not allowed to cross over line running from HP through 2B - until ball is hit of course as we have all seen a great SS cross that line for a grounder and throw the runner out with a spin move), are you really able to get the results you want?  What if the SS parks himself on the line and moves at crack of bat?.  If you go any further and draw lines out further (5-10 ft from bag), then you get stupid exceptions like covering the bag.  I really don't have any great desire to preserve the shift, I just cannot fathom how one would go about drawing up realistic rules that made sense and didn't require its own dedicated section to player positioning.  

3and2Fastball posted:

Ever notice the players that don't get shifted on much?  Learn to hit with power to all fields.  Easier said than done but that is the answer, and the next wave of talent coming up has been working on that very thing for years

The games adjusts, and adjusts back

I would like this again but the site won't let you, you sir are spot on.

rynoattack posted:

2017LHPscrewball posted:

For anyone who thinks it should be outlawed, please provide a very basic set of "Rules" as to what would be and what would not be allowed.  Do you simply not let the MIF cross a line running from HP to 2B?  And what about all those second basemen playing in the grass - might as well outlaw that also.  Oh yea, neither 1B nor 3B can come in on the grass when they are covering a bunt.  Still trying to work out all the rules and parameters - might need to resort to shock collars/invisible fence unless we want to start adding a bunch of extra chalk lines to the field.

I do think they should all be required to play within the baselines, but not a fan of dictating precisely where they wish to stand on the field.

Seems like a pretty argumentative response, but I will give it a go.  My answer was simply outlaw it just like they have an illegal defense in the NBA. In the NBA the rule is specifically to that little spot in the key.  Same thing here.  You don't have to outlaw every little defensive scheme, like you can't pick them up before the half court line, yada, yada, yada. 

I just don't like the rule, and I think it hurts the offense.  With the pitchers constantly throwing harder, I think the offense is at a disadvantage.  Most outlying fans, not the diehards, would like to see more offense, and this is one way to increase runs. 

Well actually offense has already gone up a lot and homers are at the highest level ever. Do we need even more offense?

Dominik85 posted:

rynoattack posted:

2017LHPscrewball posted:

For anyone who thinks it should be outlawed, please provide a very basic set of "Rules" as to what would be and what would not be allowed.  Do you simply not let the MIF cross a line running from HP to 2B?  And what about all those second basemen playing in the grass - might as well outlaw that also.  Oh yea, neither 1B nor 3B can come in on the grass when they are covering a bunt.  Still trying to work out all the rules and parameters - might need to resort to shock collars/invisible fence unless we want to start adding a bunch of extra chalk lines to the field.

I do think they should all be required to play within the baselines, but not a fan of dictating precisely where they wish to stand on the field.

Seems like a pretty argumentative response, but I will give it a go.  My answer was simply outlaw it just like they have an illegal defense in the NBA. In the NBA the rule is specifically to that little spot in the key.  Same thing here.  You don't have to outlaw every little defensive scheme, like you can't pick them up before the half court line, yada, yada, yada. 

I just don't like the rule, and I think it hurts the offense.  With the pitchers constantly throwing harder, I think the offense is at a disadvantage.  Most outlying fans, not the diehards, would like to see more offense, and this is one way to increase runs. 

Well actually offense has already gone up a lot and homers are at the highest level ever. Do we need even more offense?

I love HR's but the problem with the game isn't offense or HR totals, it is the strike out totals and length of the games.

I realize the HR totals going up is directly reflective of the power surge but Strikeouts are way to high for the long term good of the game.

Yes home runs are at the highest rate ever, the Ks are the problem. Question is what to do about this. You could make the zone smaller but that would also increase the home runs. Home runs are great but baseball fans also want some consistency and not a beer league home run derby so home runs probably should not go up that much more.

Maybe a smaller zone and a slightly deader ball (but only by a little so that hr rates stay constant and does not drop dead) would be the solution.

Dominik85 posted:

Yes home runs are at the highest rate ever, the Ks are the problem. Question is what to do about this. You could make the zone smaller but that would also increase the home runs. Home runs are great but baseball fans also want some consistency and not a beer league home run derby so home runs probably should not go up that much more.

Maybe a smaller zone and a slightly deader ball (but only by a little so that hr rates stay constant and does not drop dead) would be the solution.

Higher seams on the ball and electronic strike zone.  

K’s will go down when the owners pay guys who strike out less, more than those who strike out more, regardless of how many HRs they hit.

hsbaseball101 posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Yes home runs are at the highest rate ever, the Ks are the problem. Question is what to do about this. You could make the zone smaller but that would also increase the home runs. Home runs are great but baseball fans also want some consistency and not a beer league home run derby so home runs probably should not go up that much more.

Maybe a smaller zone and a slightly deader ball (but only by a little so that hr rates stay constant and does not drop dead) would be the solution.

Higher seams on the ball and electronic strike zone.  

The strike zones you see on broadcasts are not accurate. The radar is set for the average size player. The height is the same whether a player is 6'3" or 5'9". It's why you see pitches called strikes that don't appear to be so on the tv screen and vice versa (balls).

hsbaseball101 posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Yes home runs are at the highest rate ever, the Ks are the problem. Question is what to do about this. You could make the zone smaller but that would also increase the home runs. Home runs are great but baseball fans also want some consistency and not a beer league home run derby so home runs probably should not go up that much more.

Maybe a smaller zone and a slightly deader ball (but only by a little so that hr rates stay constant and does not drop dead) would be the solution.

Higher seams on the ball and electronic strike zone.  

The reports on fangraphs and other sites I read were that the electronic strike zone would make the strike zone larger and not smaller.

Im all for electronic zone but then you likely would have to tighten up the rulebook zone or there would be even more strikeouts.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/t...ing-the-pitchfx-era/

If the shift is on, simple....put a bunt down the opposite baseline and walk to first   Once teams see this happen a couple times the shift will go away.  The problem is that MLB guys won't attempt to go the other way and just seem to keep trying to hit thru or over the shift.  Sure it works, but you have an entire off season and spring to figure out how to at least hit it up the middle or even somewhat the opposite way and they don't.  No different than guys backing off a guy who they know can't hit a three or a team rushing only 3 guys when they know the QB can't run....

Btw I don't think an occasional bunt hit will kill the shift. Shifting teams know they get burned occasionally, it is about the overall numbers. You would have to do it often enough to make it a negative play.

But of course they would stop shifting a guy who can do that regularly.

Boras thinks the shift is unfair towards left handed batters

https://fancredsports.com/arti...-the-severe-shift-is

Love the shift. It's smart, outside-the-box defense. To ban it would be to reward players who won't or can't learn to "hit the ball where they ain't." Would you be for outlawing the nickel back in the NFL? It would certainly degrade defenses and increase offense like when the NBA outlawed the zone. Not what I want, though. 

Don't like it.  But in reality it's the hitters fault.  Don't understand why some professional hitters never learned how to go appo.