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I have to believe Cosby will take care of Manchester in that first game.

The Bird-James River matchup strikes me as a potential upset. James River has had several lackluster games down the home stretch and I think is ripe for plucking by a team that can put the screws to them with a tough pitching performance. I see that Bird did not use Conner yesterday, and while he's not always consistent, he has the stuff to shut down anyone when he's on.

Especially if James River goes in cocky, they could find themselves on the receiving end of a surprise.
With the format of the tournament in the Dominion, using your horse in the first game and having nothing left for the second game doesn't make a whole lot of sense either. Yes, I understand that you can't win the 2nd game if you don't win the first game and it's high school baseball where anything can happen.

But I like the approach to look at what gives you the best chance to win two games. Assuming Cosby wins their first game, then your goal is to win two games.

Think of it this way....let's just say your chances of beating Monacan without Conner are 70%, then your chance of beating JR with Conner is 30%. That gives you a 21% chance of winning the two games you need to win.

But lets say that your chances of beating Monacan with Conner is 90% but then your chances of beating JR without Conner is 10%. That's a 9% chance of winning the two games.

Now I just made those numbers up, but it gives an idea of the thinking here. In my mind, your goal is to give yourself the best shot to win two games. Just some thoughts and my opinion.
good analysis - makes sense to me - still takes guts to do it! You dont want to be the guy that gets sent home with your #1 pitcher on the bench.
Have seen it happen and its not a good feeling.

I remember a guy doing it once and someone said "why didnt you pitch your best pitcher?" All he could say was " I was saving him for the next game" - the reply was "what next game?"

Worked out for LCB this time!
Coach Nicely (Bird) did what he thought would give Bird the best chance of winning the tournament. My wife and I were talking about this topic on the way to the game yesterday. Nicely did exactly what I thought he would do. He went with his senior #2 pitcher against the weaker of the two teams. He'll use his #1 pitcher against the stronger JR team to try to get into the District final for the second year in a row, and figure out the rest later.

Last year, Bird was the #4 seed beating #5 Clover Hill and #1 Manchester to get to the finals against Cosby, so upsets are possible! I fully expect JR to start Roberts or Sheetz, and hold Kirby for later. Bird has 3 lefty hitters/6 righty hitters, so starting the right handed Roberts seems to make the most logical sense......but this is high school baseball where anything can happen.

Don't forget your sunscreen today!
Last edited by fenwaysouth
If Cosby wins the opener, then the LCB-JR game determines the second regional berth.

I don't think you hold anyone back under those circumstances.

In JR's case, I think it also means that if someone is not sharp from the get go, you have a very quick hook, knowing that you have 2 excellent options available no matter whom you started.

Generally, though, I can't imagine not going with Kirby as your starter in that game.
Didn't see the Cosby win but I heard it ended 5-3. Cosby took the lead in the 4th or 5th and tacked on the additional run late.

The tough game I was thinking would happen in the second one did not materialize. Not sure why but Nick Conner just had no zip today. The 90+ stuff was just not there, not even close. JR got 3 runs in the first and added on consistently. It was 11-0 after 4, then JR got a tad sloppy in the top of the 5th and had to score to finish off a 12-2 win.
Last edited by Midlo Dad
quote:
Generally, though, I can't imagine not going with Kirby as your starter in that game.


Midlo,

You called that one. I was looking at it differently. I was looking at Sheetz and Roberts as #1s, and Kirby as a #2 given that he was out most of the year. I know he is talented, but he just doesn't have the innings the other two had. In the end I guess it doesn't matter when you have 3+ strong pitchers like JR has...that is a great problem to have. If they play like they did yesterday, they can beat Cosby. The other question is can they out coach them? We'll see.

You may be right on the Conner velocity, but I thought location was the bigger issue. Too many pitches down the heart of the plate. Kriby also threw a lot of fastballs. Kirby's fastballs didn't look as fast as Conner's but his location was better when he he was ahead. Kirby got behind a few times and then threw it down the middle. The Bird hitters weren't up to the challenge.

I'm looking forward to game #3 between these two. It should be a good game.
Last edited by fenwaysouth
I guess looks can be deceiving. Gun readings ran 81-86 for Conner's fastball, 87-88 for Kirby's.

Kirby's ankle sprain led to him having to work back into shape as the season went along, but he's fine now. I'm sure they won't hesitate to throw him 100 pitches if need be from here on out. Schu almost never lets anyone go beyond that. (God bless him for that.) Though as you say, when your next guy is not exactly a step down, you have that luxury.

Kirby was overpowering for 4 innings but had long waits between innings prior to the 4th and the 5th. He got through the 4th allowing only a single -- first hit of the game, by Harman -- but was just not sharp in the 5th. Frankly I thought the 5th would've been a good time to switch pitchers but as it was 11-0 I guess the thinking was to try to close the game out ASAP. It turned into a long inning, though JR scored in the bottom half to end it.

Conner has never really been a guy to scrape the black. When you are at 90-92 you can throw anywhere you want and do pretty well. When your average fastball is 84 and doesn't have a lot of movement, you can expect to get hit. Conner had a very good curve at times but in the end it didn't matter. You can't win if you can't score, so whether Conner gave up 6 (as he did) or fewer the game result would've been the same.

Thursday's matchup will be interesting. Irrespective of the outcome, the regional matchups are set. James River will go to Atlee, while Cosby will host the Capital tourney winner (or runner up if Atlee takes that, too). But pride is on the line. Neither team likes to lose, especially not to their top rivals. Cosby is on its home field, James River surely won't like the idea of losing to Cosby a third time this year. I think Birnbaum is up for Cosby. Both Roberts and Scheetz are fresh for James River and both will likely see innings. Even with no impact on the regional pairings, you can bet both teams will be pushing hard in this one.
Midlo-

One note to your response...you said "James River will go to Atlee". All regional games (including quarterfinals) are being played at The Diamond this year. You may already know that, but I just wanted to make sure anyone reading this is in the loop.

Personally I'm not a big fan of using The Diamond for high school games (its just too big in my opinion) but it should be cool to have a marathon quadruple header on Memorial Day.
The Diamond changes the game in alot of ways.

Most talk about taking the homerun out of the game.

Last year I remember only one down the left field line in one of Matoaca's games.

The biggest difference is defending the much larger outfield...potential for less homeruns but doubles can easily turn into triples.

I have watched aot of games this year on what is considere a large high school field...380 to center and 330 down the line...not as many homeruns but LOTS of triples!
The larger field will definitley cause teams to "play baseball"...coaches may have to dust off the double cut talk.

Can also say last year the Regional event at the Diamond was the best showcase event for the kids lucky enough to be on a team that was there. Not an event you can pay to play in but there will be plenty of college scouts and maybe even some MLB guys. Awesome atmosphere.

The mistique of playing at the diamond changed some when the R-Braves left and about every showcase team in Richmond used the field. That is too bad.

For most kids that have grown up in Richmond that is the first place they experienced baseball with thier Dad. Something we will all remember the rest of our lives. For me it was called Parker Field then.

Kids today may not remember some of the names but imagine toeing the same rubber John Glavine or John Smoltz once did. Squating behind the same plate Dale Murphy once did. Getting in ready position a third were Chipper ones got his start. Daryl Stawberry or Doc Godden with the Tides and even Cal Ripken Jr with the Red Wings. Wade Boggs with Pawtucket. Don Matingly with the Clippers. May even go back a little further and find that Mickey Mantle once made a pass through Ricmond for an exhibition game and stood in the batters box.

They may not remember some of the names but what a great opportunty to tell them who has plaed on that field before them.

May 30th will be a great day of baseball in Richmond at a great place!
Thanks for that.

It says game times are 11:00, 1:30, 4:00 and 6:30 -- kind of a tight schedule, every 2 1/2 hours. Seems like they could fall behind that pretty easily, unless someone has a quick one in there somewhere.

Also says the tourney is now Mon/Wed/Thurs, whereas in years past it was Tues/Thurs/Friday.

Atlee v. James River is at 11:00 a.m.

Dinwiddie v. Deep Run at 1:30 p.m.

Cosby v. Capital # 2 TBD at 4:00 p.m.

Godwin v. Central # 2 TBD at 6:30 p.m.

Top 2 winners play Wed at 4:00 p.m.

Bottom 2 winners play Wed at 6:30 p.m.

Championship Thurs at 6:00 p.m.
quote:
Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
Thanks for that.

It says game times are 11:00, 1:30, 4:00 and 6:30 -- kind of a tight schedule, every 2 1/2 hours. Seems like they could fall behind that pretty easily, unless someone has a quick one in there somewhere.

Also says the tourney is now Mon/Wed/Thurs, whereas in years past it was Tues/Thurs/Friday.

Atlee v. James River is at 11:00 a.m.

Dinwiddie v. Deep Run at 1:30 p.m.

Cosby v. Capital # 2 TBD at 4:00 p.m.

Godwin v. Central # 2 TBD at 6:30 p.m.

Top 2 winners play Wed at 4:00 p.m.

Bottom 2 winners play Wed at 6:30 p.m.

Championship Thurs at 6:00 p.m.




could get interesting if there is any rain since the squirrels return to town on that friday.
quote:
Originally posted by hsbasballfan:
Gutsy move in a single elimination format to not use you #1 guy on the mound. They got through it so the coach looks smart!


agreed. i believe there is an intangible downside. the opponent knows who your #1 is. when you don't throw them, it sends a message to the opponent that you are looking past them. that can be a HUGE motivator. joe gibbs was a master of making every opponent sound like a super bowl caliber opponent. that motivated HIS team- not the other.....
Last edited by bkwl
quote:
Originally posted by hsbasballfan:
hanover had to play an extra game against Atlee to determine the regular season champion since they tied.
that game went 10 innings which I am sure expended alot of their pitching. Atlee won and claimed the first seed in the Region. Hanover then went out and got beat by LD 10 innings short on pitching....or at least that is my analysis


The one game playoff definitely handicaps the loser of the playoff. That is magnified when the game lasts 10 innings. One thing I always thought about Hanover though was that they didn't have great pitching depth. After Childress they would mix and match with some short inning guys, but I'm not even sure who they used as their number two starter. I think that was their biggest weakness. Additionally, according to an article in the Mechanicsville Local they also struggled offensively toward the end of the season. That combination apparently spelled the end to their season.
Last edited by Emanski's Heroes
It'll be interesting to see today just how much importance the two coaches place on winning the district tourney, or on just trying to beat their top rival.

With both teams going to the Diamond on Monday, it would seem the game is just for bragging rights. There's no home field advantage to be won, in fact, the regional pairings remain the same no matter what happens today.

In the past, I've seen Coach Lowery use a younger pitcher, partly to get that kid a taste of a pressure situation where he can, and partly because he doesn't like the other guys to see the same pitcher they might see if the two teams meet up yet again later on with more at stake. But I think Cosby used Birnbaum and Williams once, then McQueen and Carpenter the other time, already. I know of one other pitcher at Cosby, so maybe we'll see him get some innings?

James River used Roberts the first time with Kirby making a short relief appearance, then Kirby and Sheetz the next time around. So again, they've already shown Cosby all of their main guys, so I don't know if there are any secrets left to try to keep.

Of course once the lineup is set, everyone goes full out. Just wondering how the pitching matchups will run under the circumstances.
Today is Thursday so anyone who who throws over a couple of low pitch count innings is lost for Monday.
Neither team's #1 guy is available today.

I would think JR will be hungry to get a win today and avoid a three game sweep by Cosby.
On the Cosby side have never seem them do anything other than try to win once they step between the lines- the players seem to believe in their coach and what ever plan he puts in place they will try to execute it.

I think both, as Randy Jackson says, are "In It To Win It"
Well, this was just a good old fashioned butt kickin'. 12-2 Cosby, ended after 4 1/2 innings.

Cosby came out fired up and hot, JR stunk it up from the get go and never really got into the game.

Roberts recently had a couple of weeks where he laid off pitching, and I'm not sure why, but today he just didn't have it. He had a chance to escape the first with only 1 run, but JR booted an infield grounder, and Roberts missed a chance at a pickoff when he had the runner dead meat but made a poor throw. At that point Cosby started pounding and ended up with 5 in the first.

JR went to Scheetz in the 2nd and he had some tough luck, two ground balls that just barely got by gloves into the outfield. 2 more runs.

JR had a bases loaded, no outs situation in the 4th. Got 2 runs out of that but that was it.

Bottom 4, 1st/3d 2 outs, Scheetz got a K that should've ended it but the curve in the dirt required a throw to first, and the throw went wild to allow a run to score. After Cosby then loaded the bases with 2 outs, Carpenter hit a towering pop up that landed in the Bermuda Triangle behind the second baseman, and with the runners going all 3 scored. Scheetz got pulled and another run came in before the inning finally ended.

And that was that.

Birnbaum threw a really good game until he ran into some difficulty in the 4th. Carpenter had no trouble at all getting the last 4-5 outs.

The game has no practical impact, regional pairings were already set. But JR just doesn't seem to be able to get past Cosby, and judging from today, it's in their heads.

They'll be in opposite brackets next week, so if they face each other again it'll be a similar situation, both advancing to the state tourney in any event. But both have to win 2 games before they can even think about that, and if JR plays anything like it did today, we won't see a 4th matchup.
let me summarize...Cosby came out...hit them in the mouth and they stayed on the mat until the umpire called off the dogs after 5 innings per the slaugghter rule.

if anyone had the motivation to win tyhis game should had been James River who lost two already this year. Cosby team showed why it has won the last three District Tournaments.

wasnt about bad tough luck on the mound or people layingg off pitching... more about only scoring 2 runs.
i caugght all 3 games and have followed the District all year.

Has been interesting to hear the preseason talk and early season talk. People said nobody would beat JR. If you look at all their game score were noty many where they did not score at least 10 runs.

when you look at their three meetings with scores of 4-2 , 7-5, and 12- 2 it is a pretty impressive run by Cosby and their pitchers who held them to an average of 3 runs each game and a defense that played from what i remember error free.
I hung around for the District Awards and it was noted by another onlooker Cosby didnt have a pitcher on the first team and only 1 among the first and second team. Kind of makes you scratch your head.
The big question marks going in to the season for me with James River were (1) maturity and (2) who would play middle infield?

When Casey Jones moved back to town, filled the SS/leadoff role and won POY, that took care of # 2 pretty well I should say. The guy who would've been pressed into service at SS got to play his natural 2B position instead, and things fell into place.

The maturity thing is where I think Cosby beats them. There are a few seniors in JR's lineup (jones, Parnell, and two who share LF) but they still rely most heavily on underclassmen. When you see them lose nail biters twice to Cosby in games where Cosby played flawlessly, then fall apart under the pressure of a big game like they did yesterday, to me that's where you see the lack of seniors on the team.

JR might have overcome that with a strong pitching performance, but for whatever reason, Roberts just didn't have it yesterday and by the time the first inning ended the die had been cast for the entire game. Cosby was rolling, JR was hanging their heads, and it was just a matter of time until the 5th inning rolled around.

I don't think this spells the end of JR's season by any means. But any thought of winning a championship goes by the boards until they learn to play loose and confident in their matchups with their toughest opponents, and year in and year out, Cosby is going to be their toughest opponent.

I'll tell you one thing, Atlee had better come ready on Monday because after they stew over this all weekend it could go one of two ways for JR on Monday. They could make some early mistakes and swirl downward, or they could come out hot under the collar, put some runs up, and then let Kirby put Atlee to bed. I realize Atlee has been hot, but I don't think they've seen anyone of Kirby's caliber all year, so I don't see them getting a lot of runs without getting some help from walks and errors. You can bet there won't be any balls sailing over the walls at the Diamond.
quote:
hsbasballfan said....let me summarize...Cosby came out...hit them in the mouth and they stayed on the mat until the umpire called off the dogs after 5 innings per the slaugghter rule.

if anyone had the motivation to win tyhis game should had been James River who lost two already this year. Cosby team showed why it has won the last three District Tournaments.


hsbasballfan,

You are exactly right. I got there early, and I closely watched both teams warm up as I shared some words with some friends. Cosby looked very sharp, and they had a little extra giddy up in their footwork and throws. The mitts were popping and the throws were accurate. JR didn't nearly have the same energy, enthusiasm in their warm up. They weren't sloppy but there was no sense of urgency, and they just weren't as sharp. I thought to myself is this a precursor of things to come? Now most of you are rolling your eyes, and saying what the heck does that matter? Well, what I saw in warm up is exactly what I saw in the game. Cosby's defense and base running is that much better....hands down. JR has better pitching talent on paper, but I didn't see that either. Cosby hitters got their pitches to hit and did something with them. JR hitters were anxiously swinging, and Birnbaum would finish them off with high heat. I can't tell you how many times I saw that pitching sequence, and JR hitters did not make the adjustment. Birnbaum left a couple change ups (or some off speed pitch) high that were not taken advantage of. It just looked to me like Cosby had a game plan, and they executed their overall game plan very well.

I was one of the folks that picked JR to do well this year. I'm second guessing myself. I know they have the talent, but success is more than just talent. Their defense has to tighten up or it is going to be over quick. I'm not too worried about their pitching. They've shown me they can hit straight fastball mid-80s, and be patient at the plate in other District games. But can they manufacture runs in close games? I don't know. I guess we'll find out when they face some aces from other teams who are just as deserving to make the regionals. If anything, it should be interesting.
Last edited by fenwaysouth
quote:
Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
In the end, JR may be 0-3 vs. Cosby, but they're 15-1 against the rest of the world.

I think I'll take them in the Atlee game.


Exactly. Bottom line is that Cosby just has James River's number. They are in JRHS' heads and have overwhelmed them with their energy.

Against everyone else JRHS has the swagger and aggression necessary to let their game fly but they just seem to let Cosby set the tone when they play them.

In any event - I predict JRHS getting to the Regional finals since they are a far better team than most as long as they don't look across the field at the Titans.

As for Cosby - they are hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Per usual, Tim Lowery has this team in sync when it matters most.

Anything can happen in baseball - we all know that - but I like the Dominion District's chances to sweep the regionals like they did 3 and 4 years ago.
I have seen that kind of attitude out of JRHS at times too. When they went over and smashed Godwin in the first game of the year it was the exact same thing Cosby has in spades - only in their favor.

These are 16, 17, 18 year old kids - sometimes we underestimate the importance of properly channeled emotion.

Monday will be about 9 hours worth of examples.

I can't wait...... busting out the sunscreen and straw hat baby!!!!!!!

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