Draft - velocity

it's more about projectability in the future. who has the greater upside and obviously the needs of an organization.

I think some of it is that teams believe they can teach to throw strikes/ or to pitch. Speed, usually you have it or you don't.

I watched a game where the stands were full of pro and college scouts, drooling heavily. The guy threw mid to upper 90s. He pitched 3 innings walking 6, striking out 5 giving 2 hits. That was my first experience with “projecting “ talent.

Philler, I have looked at a bunch of pitchers on Drafttracker. As for lefties, 93+ on a Stalker with good stuff and projectibility is first round. 90+ is about round 1-8. It drops off quickly thereafter, and in rounds 30-50 it is not uncommon to see lefties sitting 86 with maybe an 88 reading here and there.

Size plays a role, as I truly believe my own son would be getting more serious interest if he didn't lack size. He's 5'10 170 lbs and probably sits 86 topping 88, but I haven't gunned him this year. But he also has good stuff so I'm hoping that makes up for it!

As for RHP's, add 1-2 MPH to the above numbers. As has been discussed previously on HSBBW, the average MLB fastball for a RHP is 90, LHP about 88. To get to this "average" a RHP may have to cruise 88-91 topping 93. A LHP may have to cruise 86-89 topping 91. Very few high school pitchers can do this, of course, which is why projectibility is so important. But high school pitchers, all else being equal, are more projectible than college pitchers so a high schooler within about 2 MPH of "average" may be okay so long as he has 2 or 3 quality pitches and some projectibility. A college pitcher should be at or darn near average now.

I suspect pro scouts will overlook some control issues if a kid has velocity. Control can be taught. In fact, a kid with some control problems might add even more velocity when tweaked. As for movement, I think a lot of pitchers either naturally have this or not, so a kid who's a little subpar on velocity may be given bonus points for movement, yes.

Hope this helps.

Another way of looking at it is that the 90-91 guy is more likely to be able to take a few mph off the ball and get movement than the 85-86 guy is to be able to add 4 or 5 mph. I'd also say that the 90-91 guy might have a bit more movement than you think given that he only gave up 2 runs in 6 innings against aluminum.

I saw the same thing in a tournament over spring break with college scouts looking at HS pitchers. The kids pitching well and throwing nice breaking balls but topping out at 78-79 never got a look while the kid throwing 83-85 mph fastballs got the guns out.

I also have a son who is looking to be drafted this year. He is a jr. college RHP who sits at 89-92 and touches 95. He is also 6'3 around 225 and he is hearing that projectability is the key. He projects to pick up speed as he matures. The level of scouting interest has been crazy this year, as he was an "unknown". All sorts of interest from scouts, area scouts and crosscheckers, all with the guns out. His control has been at time above average and at other times, just not there. But none the less, it still sounds like the projection is the key. Bum is correct, being over 6'3" is a big part of the interest.

Hey, guys. Size-challenged or not, Bum, Jr. just may have helped himself out today. 21 strikeouts, a league record. Had a no-hitter going into the 7th until a guy poked one into left center. Won 5-0. 21 k's, 1 bb.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Hey, guys. Size-challenged or not, Bum, Jr. just may have helped himself out today. 21 strikeouts, a league record. Had a no-hitter going into the 7th until a guy poked one into left center. Won 5-0. 21 k's, 1 bb.

Those walk will kill ya... Hes got to develope a little more control!

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Hey, guys. Size-challenged or not, Bum, Jr. just may have helped himself out today. 21 strikeouts, a league record. Had a no-hitter going into the 7th until a guy poked one into left center. Won 5-0. 21 k's, 1 bb.

Bum,

If you don't mind me asking.. How big is your son?

To get looks you need to touch 90 consistently. It is easier as stated above to take a little off than to add a little. Right or wrong if you throw hard and have size you get looks whether the guy you go against is more effective or not. I have seen a few exceptions, but not too often.

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Hey, guys. Size-challenged or not, Bum, Jr. just may have helped himself out today. 21 strikeouts, a league record. Had a no-hitter going into the 7th until a guy poked one into left center. Won 5-0. 21 k's, 1 bb.

Those walk will kill ya... Hes got to develope a little more control!

Yeah, 1 walk and 21 k's in 7 innings What is this world coming to?

5'10". Although he looks slight in reality he weighs 170 lbs as he has a lot of lean muscle mass.. and muscle weighs more than fat. He is signed with wsu and will pitch for them next year. now 125 k's in 59 inn. Someday I think the scouts will realize he's the real deal regardless of size.

Bum,
If he performs well in college he'll get his shot regardless of size and even if he isn't hitting 95.

CADad, I think so, too, but I know because of his size he has to be extraordinary.

Hope everything's going okay with CADad, Jr.! Bum, Jr. finished his regular season with a no-no then two playoff wins in 4 days allowing only 1 run on 3 hits in 14 innings. Off to state and will face PG Crosschecker #25 Richland this Saturday. Could be his final h.s. baseball game but whata way to go out.

Tell your son to stay healthy for me.

Bum,
Health is fine, velocity seems to still be rising. The season didn't go well due to lack of work and not handling that well. He's going to do the Sunshine West so we should get a picture of where he's at for now. I'm not expecting anything amazing. My guess is that he'll work either 82-83 or 83-84 depending on the difference between their Stalkers and my JUGS and depending on if he picks up any more velocity over the next few weeks. I'm not counting on a near term increase though because we haven't been able to get him on a consistent long toss program so far. The hope is that he'll hit 85 or 86 max. That would show some improvement on what he did in the CA Underclass but wouldn't be enough to knock anyone's socks off. The real hope is that he can add another couple mph by the end of August and the West Coast Top Prospects when the schools will most likely be in attendance in somewhat larger numbers. It sure would be nice if he could hit 87 or even, dreaming a bit here, 88 by then. He's also going to attend the Stanford camp where the emphasis will probably need to swing a bit more toward pitching well than lighting up the gun.

It turns out every team CASon pitched against except one in his limited outings made the playoffs down here. One is the #33 team in the PG rankings. The one team he pitched against that didn't make the playoffs outhit and beat the #2 team in the PG rankings.

Pitching against a top team should be a good indicator of where Rusty is at for now, if a no-no and dominating in a couple playoff games isn't indication enough. My guess is he'll do quite well but probably won't end up with 21 K's this time. Sounds a little scary how much they are using him. Good luck and tell Rusty to stay healthy, he's got a lot to look forward to.

CaDad.. thanks. He did throw on 2-days rest ONCE. That was a do-or-die play-in-game. The coach then told him "hey, you're pitching again in three days". When I found out, I broke the big HSBBW rule of not interferring with the coach.. I called him and (after congratulating him on the big win) respectfully explained there was ABSOLUTELY NO WAY he was going to go again in another three days.. he needed rest! Coach backed off, team won, so he's rested for tommorow. As for pitching against top teams Rusty has done that many times in many places (Mariner Cup, PG, Stanford, etc.) and has done very well so I won't read too much into the results of one game.. just going to have fun and enjoy it either way.

Bum,

Your son sounds very, very talented. I hope that his size (which is not that small) doesn't hold him back. I know of some boys who have added an inch or two of height in college so you never know he might end up 6 feet.

LoveTheGame, thank you for those kind words! It's okay, I have long since resigned myself to his size "challenge". He held #25 Richland in check(striking out 14) and left the game with a 3-3 deadlock after 7 innings. Our relief pitcher lost it in extra innings but I was happy Rusty showed he could stop them. That team was averaging 12 runs a game with a team BA of over .400.

Really, I don't view it as a situation of being "held back". He's signed D1 and he has been contacted by pro teams for the upcoming draft. He might not be the biggest but God made him a lefty so who am I to complain?