Draft Analysis

It is a tough "row to hoe", figuring out the best way to go. My Son wants to play pro ball. It has been his dream (of course). I am inclined to let him go if he is offered a shot at "round money" or close. Don't know what to expect. It is a strange trip, with significant consequence.
It is interesting to see better bonuses out of High school.
Of course, it is only tough if you are given the decision to make...a privilege denied most everyone!

If your good enough, you will make it.
That's just the name of that game.
If you where a top 10 rd. pick, are even an 18th rd. pick
out of HS.
And they offered a good size bonus.
It would be hard to turn down for a young ballplayer.

I'm not hear to say to go either way Pro or College.
It's a Player's/Family decision.

But when does that player feel they have the best chance of succeeding in the Pro game??
EH

We push the grades...but I know where my Son's heart is and what his dream is. He works relentlessly at it daily. He would play for room and board and food money.

Old Slugger, you hit a sore spot with the copy and paste thing. I did the same thing with the draft from 2005, and boy does it get tedious.

The angle that you took to compare draft years is very interesting. I might do the same thing looking at pitchers. My first thoughts would be that for pitchers the reverse might be true as compared to outfielders. That is with a new emphasis on drafting pitchers out of college more than before.

However, your point on the higher dollar bonuses for the kids coming out of high school does not surprise me. I remember looking at that 2005 draft and "assuming" the same thing.

What would be interesting to see is how big the "Senior Discount" is for kids that turned down a draft position in their Junior year of college, and then were redrafted their senior year. I bet those numbers would open some eyes.

Thanks for sharing the info !!!!!

.......since you mention pitchers

As much as many parents want their kid to gass out hitters, the metal thing seems to be a hinderance, let alone arm injuries?????

People, baseball experts, old-timers always talk about the increase in arm injuries with pitchers today........they say it is about lack of long toss, training, whatever!!

I say it is more about kids trying to overthrow pitches to get a batter out because of the metal bat!!

I wouldn't want to be a pitcher trying for D1/Pro ball these days because of the metal bat. All it does is prolong the process of weeding out, and during that time ruins many good pitching prospects.

The NCAA should be ashamed of themselves. Letting young men 18-23 years old play baseball with an unfair advantage........that stupid metal bat!!

I agree about the metal bats being banned. It teaches the pitchers to pitch away from contact by throwing more breaking balls which in turn takes away from the developement of a good fastball for which you need in order to get drafted. I don't know of a high round pick who has lots of walks with an average to below average fastball and good breaking ball. You get to the highest levels with the ability to command your fastball to both sides of the plate. You get drafted high because you throw hard.So I pose this question? Do kids get hurt because the throw to many breaking pitches in order to miss metal bats or Do kids get hurt because they weight train the wrong way in order to throw really hard so they can get drafted higher? Both are good questions and it is up to the coaches of the program to make those decisions since that is who you play for. Which leads me to another question? How qualified is the person coaching your son? If he is really good that is great. It is just funny when I hear how good coaches are and yet parents spent hundreds and sometime thousands of dollars on lessons and other stuff that the player will not be able to put into play since the guy coaching them is not that guy. Let the coach do his job or transfer and save your money.

quote:

1. Thinking the track is rosier 3/4 years down the road after college ball is not necessarily true. The college game weeds them out also.

Quite the opposite. If only 4 of the 30 college players were previously drafted out of high school, it sounds to me as if college DEVELOPES players.

My son was a the top 10 round pick out of high school and a top 10 pick after three years of college and I can say that even though he's playing pro ball it makes me feel MUCH better knowing he has three years of college behind him.

Let me share my philosophy on why a player should go to college.

1. If he were a top ten pick put of high school but failed to be drafted after four years of college --- Where do you think he would be had he signed out of high school? RELEASED!
2. If he opted to go to college and suffered a career ending injury in college where do you think he would be had he signed out of high school? Injured and released.
3. If he opted to go to college out of high school and fell in love, gave up baseball and got married after graduation what would have happened to him had he been in pro ball? He would have fallen in love and given up baseball if he could.


While major league baseball is professional baseball ------- Professional baseball is not major league baseball! The two are worlds apart and separated by many years of toiling in the minors for a VERY small salary (and that salary is only during baseball season). The road to MLB is cluttered with the remnants of many a young player’s dreams. We have to understand that playing professional baseball is ONLY a chance at greatness --- ONLY an opportunity to make baseball a real career. I am thankful my son has gotten that opportunity and hope that he makes it happen but the reality of it all is still somewhat frightening and always will be until he makes it to the majors or is released. I encourage him to enjoy the moment, play his best and hopefully things will fall into place. If he doesn’t make it to MLB there will be no regrets. We understand that is the nature of the beast. No matter what route you take, be it college or pro ---- I say go for it, enjoy the ride, however you owe it to yourself and your son to understand the complete process so there will be no surprises.
Fungo

Why is there such disparity between signing bonuses for H.S vs College if College develops the player? I myself would desire that my Son go the 3-4 year college route. But, if it at the expense of getting drafted, I am not as sure. As stated above, there is a world (literally) of talent coming up behind. I have heard it said that if you are drafted, and want to play professionally, accept the offer. And as stated above, many college players that were drafted out of H.S. but chose college instead are never drafted again. I suppose some of this can be accounted for as a choice that individual college players make...to peruse another vocation that they studied in college, or they fell in love and can't bear the thought of leaving their girlfriend.
I wish I understood how to best encourage my Son should he be faced with this dilemma. Again, I know it is a privilege denied most everyone, and the odds are we won't have to face it either. I just would like to fully understand the pros and cons if playing MLB is the ultimate goal. Ultimate goals are rarely achieved, therefore college is the safer more responsible route, but is it the best choice?

IMHO if your son is a 1st or early 2nd round pick out of high school, wants to start his pro career ASAP, and feels ready for that level of independence and responsibility, he should sign. Pro ball is the best development opportunity for top prospects who can handle it.

If your son is drafted after the 2nd round, fully understands the implications of his draft slot, and still feels STRONGLY about signing out of high school, let him pursue HIS dream in his own way. Push the college route and see if he tries to talk you out of it. He will need a high level of commitment to overcome the obstacles he will face as a later draft round selection.

IMHO everyone else should play some level of college ball first, regardless of the round in which they were drafted. It provides more safety nets and options.

Take money out of the equation and base decisions on your son's talent projection, maturity, and level of commitment. Even if he is the top pick in the draft, he still needs to feel ready for the pro lifestyle in order to survive and thrive. If he's not, no amount of money will be worth the possible consequences, which can be far worse than just missing the college ball experience.

Fungo and Txmom have players in pro ball, different levels.

I think it is important to listen and digest what they are saying. JMO.

quote:

I myself would desire that my Son go the 3-4 year college route. But, if it at the expense of getting drafted, I am not as sure.

floridafan, going the 3-4 year route does not mean your son is giving up the chance to be drafted, although it may appear that way statisically.

You just can't make the decision based on statistics.

The players are drafted because of more than just talent. Signability and projected time to make a major league team are huge factors in where a player is picked.

In my opinion and my observations have been that most players with a scholarship to a major program are not usually drafted.

The players that attend college continue to be followed and watched to see how they perform against the significantly higher level of competition.

Although a potential draft canidate out of high school, the player may not experience success in college. And, might not be drafted out of college. The lack of success in college is a strong indication that the same outcome would occur in the minor leagues.

The college players that are drafted have demonstrated some success against the higher competition.

Unless, you are drafted in the first few rounds, college, for those inclined to attend, is a far better choice.

It just provides more options in the future.

Once you sign the baseball contract, you lose the option to play college baseball.

College baseball has been a great experience for my son and our family.

I know it's hard to see from the front side, but if I had make the choice or help make the choice again, knowing, for sure, that being drafted would not be an option after attending college, I'd choose college baseball.........

Only a very few really have to make the tough, tough decisions.

Looking back, it seems to me that, when you really get down to decision time, it's really plain and clear.

I'm thankful that bbscout and Fungo were around to discuss that with me three years ago.

FO,


As far as the metal bat thing, I agree that wood is best, but doesn't happen in college programs.

Summer wood bat leagues (all wood bat leagues IMO) usually weed out the better pitchers and better hitters. Hitters actually have harder times adjusting. Pitchers get a chance to practice pitching inside without mistakes that happen with the metal bat. They usually have more success right away than hitters.
But the better more talented hitters can mash anything. That's why you see lots of scouts at most summer leagues.
I have heard some argue that for hitters best to get your at bats in college, and pitchers out of HS, due to possible injuries, head to pro. So much goes into the decision and Txmom makes a great point, take money out of the equation, base your decision on son's talent projections, maturity and level of commitment.

FO makes great point, as draft get closer, things becomes clearer.

unless your accepted to the college program of your dreams. college very well could be free, if you go out of high school, and tuition is an issue? that is a reality that is often overlooked.
then again playing in college can't be replaced.and the minors can be grueling. what a choice though.

something i asked for was the scouting reports from the scouts and cross checkers.interesting reading ,read them yesterday.