Draft Day Advice

Most clubs will not draft a player in the top ten rounds absent either a rock hard (gentleman's) agreement or a compelling reason (e.g., Mark Appel as a senior draftee). While each year a few top ten rounds aren't signed (Aiken, Bickford, etc), the penalty associated with a non-signing (the entire slotted amount is deemed used) is pretty severe. When a top ten rounder isn't signed, it's usually an indication of some kind of a breakdown in either internal club communications, advisor/club communications, or a late learned fact (usually health related).

 

There just aren't a lot of moving parts for the top ten; the club knows what it's max total is, knows [as best the parties can know] the players bottom line, tries to gauge the players true priorities, and acts. A miscalculation can be bad (although the compensatory pick for not signing a high draft pick does take the sting out of a potential miscalculation). The Astros lost three HS pitchers last draft because of this - two in the top ten, the other lower.

 

Outside the top ten, however, the calculus changes. Here there are many more moving parts which can be assessed with the luxury of time (all needs to be known by the signing date, not by the draft date).

 

To me, most importantly, the amount which can be paid without penalty is a number in constant fluctuation until every top ten is signed. So, for example, a HS player may state his number, and the club will not know if it can pay that number for weeks following the draft. On the other side of the coin are the HS players who for whatever reason (college no matter what, bad advice as to what he is actually worth, deemed not ready yet to be on his own, injured too close to the draft to evaluate the extent of the injury) price or otherwise remove themselves from the market and will not be drafted. 

 

Of course, during the pre-draft scouting process, scouts collect many more names then can be drafted. It seems that many parents and players feel that being scouted = going to be drafted. For top ten rounders, cross-checkers and above will have seen the player; for the rest it's highly probable that ONLY the area scout has seen the player. For those who ONLY the area scout has seen, there is a battle royale in the draft room to get your boy picked over another area scout's boy. So, one area scout may feel that his boy will be drafted (and communicate this to the player and parents in the home visit), another area scout feels the exact same about his kid, but the club only needs one slow footed monster DH. Thus, what may appear as disingenuous to the undrafted player ("I was told I'd be drafted but wasn't"), wasn't at all personal to the club ("how many slow footed dh's do we really need").

 

In the 2010 draft, my S was called by half dozen clubs and told he was next up on their list. He's still waiting for ine of those clubs to tell him to report.

I tend to agree with you CD. And I think MLB has diminished leverage even more with the shorter cutoff date for signing and the compensation picks for the next year if the high picks don't sign. 

 

Having gone through this with 2 sons multiple times each (plus their friends and teammates) I would say the one piece of advice that seems to catch most people off guard is when they ar told to be ready in Round X by Team Y. I know FAR more kids who were let down on that 'promise' than were not.

 

Do your best to roll with it. It isn't an integrity thing on scouts' part. Things change on draft day based on what's going on and it isn't personal if it doesn't happen the way you were led to believe.

 

Just roll with it. 

 

 

First off, my oldest son was not drafted.  It would have been nice, but not in the cards and the timing was not right (injury junior year).  I'm not sure if it would have been an attractive path for him even though he loves the game.

 

But, we know many folks that have been drafted or will be considered for future drafts.  CDs and JBB advice is excellent.  Truthfully, I don't know one person who went in a round earlier than they were told.  Anytime a club gives you a range that seems to be a best case scenario for the player.  For the vast majority of players it is a let down from what they were told.  If you think college coaches are the masters of ambiguity and mis-remembering then I think professional scouts (from what I'm told) are the true masters. 

 

A couple years ago, one of my son's high school friends was told he would be a top ten round pick out of high school.  He kept checking his cell phone (in the dugout)  right in the middle of the state playoff game.  He had a terrible day, and you could just see the disappointment in his body language.  I left really bad for the young man as he would end up going much, much later in the draft.  I've seen this scenario play out numerous times for high schoolers and college players.  It is essentially out of your control (roll with it!), and the best you can hope for is to be treated fairly for the round you are drafted.  Priceless advice IMHO.

I've seen so many scouts'/team execs' pre-draft smiles turn to steely eyes (or worse) from the moment the drafting of the player takes place.

 

At any point in the process, pre or post-draft, woe be to the player/parent who loses sight of the fact that from the front office's perspective, baseball is nothing but a business.

My son went un-drafted. I guess we would have wanted a clearer idea if we should expect a call or not. Not that we wanted a rock solid guarantee, just a " good chance" instead of advisor telling me all these were calling about my son. I've been told wrong time, wrong team as they didn't have much bonus money to spend period. I know there no certainties, I would have really appreciated understanding if he should really expect anything rather than stick around and wait for possible calls. When I speak about this, it is absolutely from his viewpoint and for his benefit...this is a business, not a friends-ness. We gave a number and I was told it was fair but i really believe team A had zero intention of ever drafting him anywhere near that value. We were told teams would chop their way down and augment the $ and pay over slot....nope. Afterwards, we were told he was out area guy's #1 over the team's #1. He got drafted and son didn't and both were local kids in same area for scout. At the end of the day, I believe teams think my kid is a max effort guy who won't hold up. Let's see what happens over the next three years, I hope he has a chance to alter that impression and chase his dream in pro baseball.

The draft is a happy day for a few and a big disappointment for most. The new CBA has changed the way organizations draft.  First couple rounds is all about talent provided the player is agreeable to the deal.  Rounds 5-10, even some earlier selections, are simply part of the organizations financial plan. 

 

Often we see 1st round talent slip to the late rounds or not drafted at all.  The actual signing period clears up some of the strategy used by MLB clubs.  You will see players drafted early signing well below the minimum and others drafted much later getting a lot more.

 

Before the new CBA, we would see PG All Americans like Dillon Betances and Dextor Fowler, get picked after the first 10 rounds and still get late 1st rd money. Also guys like Kris Bryant from nothing to being one of the first picks out of college these days.

Good post.  

For most players its about the money and wanting to get as much as you can so if your son wasn't drafted and he indicated he may be interested, you are being told that you most likely were not worth what you wanted. I know that from own own experience in HS.  That means, go to school, get better.  

That's why it is so much easier to draft a college player, IMO.  Not one scout asked son what he wanted to sign, much different scenario than in HS. It was pretty understood he was going pro, and a call came in about 15 minutes before the pick, will you sign for XYZ, yes or no.

 

Leverage is what helps in determining the players worth. Who is worth more, the guy with the 90% scholarship to the big D1 or the guy going to JUCO?  That is why it is so important to do well in school.  

 

I believe that when a scout or cross checker comes to your home to talk to you and your son, there should be complete honesty of the intentions. Telling a scout you are going to sign, then haggling later hurts that scout more than it does you. While I know some of them are not really honest, all of the scouts we met in HS were honest and open and we understood the process as much as one could at the time, with help.   We had talked to two agents, one said let them think that you will sign, the other said, your son is not ready to play pro ball and a graduate drafted out of Clemson University.

The first guy is not around anymore, the second has pretty high profile pitchers as clients, one a Detroit Tiger, one a SF Giant.   We went with the second guy. 

 

FWIW, sons drafting scout out of HS he never met.

The advisor who tells you that you aren't ready to play pro ball or that you aren't good enough for the demands you are making is probably the one you want to keep around. It's also the least likely one you want to listen to. Then again, most good advice isn't fun to hear...

My son was drafted just before the last CBA so I don't know how relevant his situation would be in todays draft environment however this is what he experienced.

 

Jerseyson had a number of in home visits and just about every team ended up asking what it would take to sign.  Early on they all seemed to accept the "fair amount for the round drafted" posturing however as things got closer to draft day they wanted a number.  At this point he/we knew it was a business discussion so he was upfront with the teams on what it would take to pass up his college commitment.  This led to what we felt were some very realistic conversations with teams (and our family),by the time the draft came around he pretty much knew that if he wasn't drafted in the first two round then there was a good chance it wasn’t going to happen.  

 

It turned out he wasn't drafted on the first day so he pretty much was at peace with it and was mentally prepared to head off to his "dream school".  As it turned out he was taken in the 20th round by a team he had never talked to...quite frankly we were a bit surprised he was drafted however we learned this was a tactic that many small market teams used to pick up “sign-ability” players.  Thankfully this was before the current slotting system was put in place and teams had a lot more leeway…at the end of the day he ended up signing at the deadline. As PGSTAFF mentioned, it turned out he wasn't alone, there were quite a few guys that signed for much more than the normal value of the rounds they were taken.

 

While much has changed, I'm still in the camp that if a HS player expects a significant number to sign they should be upfront about it, this approach made it much less stressful for my son. The key is to know what you would really be willing to sign for and not just throw out a number...make no bones about it, this is a business transaction and it comes down to making the “budget” work for both parties.

You also have to be honest about the number. If you say you will sign for $1 million and then panic and sign for $400k in the 8th round, you've lied to the scouts (who don't really care), your college coach who accepted your commitment (this matters some), and most importantly, yourself. Because in a year (at most) you will be wondering if you should have held out.

 

The reality is that a hell of a lot changes when that check is placed in front of you for $500k when you wanted $800k. Are you going to walk away from that kind of money? Not many 18 year olds have the fortitude to do so.

Suppose you did compromise your number by accepting 400k instead of your preferred 800k?  So what?  How many people in life get the chance to collect one check for 400k?  If pro ball does not work out in a number of years, go back to college then.  Baseball is a now proposition.  Yes you can postpone baseball things until after college but there is no guarantee there will be the same interest then.  You can indeed guarantee that you can go to college in the future however.

Leverage is what helps in determining the players worth. Who is worth more, the guy with the 90% scholarship to the big D1 or the guy going to JUCO?  That is why it is so important to do well in school.  

 

What about the high school player that really just wants to play pro ball and plans to go the JUCO route to get him a second chance a year later if he does not get drafted out of high school?  Is he giving up too much leverage by saying he will go to a JUCO?  Should he be committing to a good D1, just for the leverage he could get?  

 

-This assumes that the player has the talent to get drafted in the top 10 rounds and the grades to get into a D1 school.  

Son had interest from teams, area scouts, had great pre-draft workouts and workouts with a crosschecker  and was given rounds and $ ranges and entered in the Draft Tracker.. 

He and we were flattered to be considered,

however we saw the trend in the draft and a lot of highly ranked HS kids fell very far to the 30's rounds.

Son was not drafted.

He did get a call from one team saying the fact he is a young senior and will be 17 all this summer was a factor in deciding (young to be on his own away from home).

They like that he will be 20 years old coming out of junior year at college as many HS kids are about that age (19/20) now.

He said they will be following him closely and is invited to their summer workout.

 

We appreciated the call, information and perspective. 

 

Of course winning the state championship this past weekend took son's mind off it.

CD - That's another good perspective that I also largely agree with. 

 

But here is another one - unless you're a pretty high pick out of HS you have perhaps an increased likelihood of playing longer if you go to college (3-4 years) and then get re-drafted to play another 1-?? years  That is, if playing as long as you can is a primary goal. 

 

Kids who sign out of HS but don't progress somewhat quickly are out of baseball somewhat quickly too. Of course, that also makes it easier to go back to college at a relatively young age too!!

 

All kinds of complex variables in this decision!!

There's nothing WRONG per se, it's just that you should know what you will / will not sign for and mostly stick to it, and these demands/requests should be reasonable and rooted in logic, like TPM has talked about.

Exactly.  I will say it again, it is very difficult, being that young makes it even more difficult.  

Why would a player give up a solid commitment to go to one year of JUCO where he most likely would not raise his chances for a better draft spot?  

Years ago they used to have draft and follow, you were drafted by a team and had a certain date before the next draft to commit. This had a lot to do with high drafted HS players wanting more money. I believe that Matt Latos did that before he signed with the Padres. His folks also thought he needed one year to grow up.

MLB doesnt do it anymore. One year of JUCO will not improve a players draft spot.  

 

But you could do some homework and see how many one year JUCO players were drafterd in the first 10 rounds.

 

Leverage is using what you have to gain something that you want. If yo have nothing to bargain with, they will beat you everytime.

I agree, if you want 400K and they think that you are worth that, they will give it to you.  But they will not have to give you the money you want to go to school. After taxes, paying an agent, if you have one, then what do you do after 5-6 years of making no money and having no skill but baseball after they let you go?  Telling people what you want rather than what you are worth,  means you are just testing the waters, and they will not waste a pick on you to do that. Or they might, maybe in the 20+ rounds. 

 

Just want to let you guys know that when son came back to Jupiter his first season (he was tired from over a 100 innings and he needed rest and therapy) his roommate was a newly drafted HS player from Arizona. His day included getting up at 6 to be at field for breakfast, workouts and practice until the GCL began and back to the hotel by 1 or 2.   A few weeks later they were into their rookie season, playing in the same backfields he did for practice.  

He was so miserable and son felt so badly for him.

Keep in mind that a bonus is basically a 6-7 yr contract. If you choose, on your own,  to leave baseball then a pro-rata portion of the bonus must be paid back. As a minor league player, you may be paid a gross $1,100/mo for those months that you play baseball. Your bonus will often have to be used to supplement your $600/700/800 net check.