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If I am understanding correctly, Fenway is saying that one of the most important things in the decision process is actually finding out what our kids want, once you know that it makes it a bit easier.  I also believe that forced with too many decisions early isn't a good thing.

So my son lived and breathed UM baseball, ask him where he wanted to go play baseball and it was always the same, UM.  If faced with that decision (early commit) at 15 he would have accepted the opportunity.  A year or two later he was completely convinced there were much better options out there.

 

In other words he had no clue at 15-16 what he actually wanted to do (except play baseball), and I don't believe that most 15 year olds do as well

Originally Posted by Green Light:

Didn't someone on one of these threads recently say that about 50% of D1 ballplayers transfer after the first year? 

Yes, that has been posted here.  However, I'm not aware of any actual statistics on transfer rates, and I suppose that the actual number is lower.

 

It is true, I believe, that about half of the players (typically 40) who show up for fall practice at D1s will be disappointed in their playing time, because only about 20 will play much. Hard to say how many of those actually transfer.  

 

In any case, I doubt that this has much to do with the date of commitment. It has more to do with colleges recruiting about twice the number of players than are needed.  Of course it seems reasonable that a later decision allows one to make a more informed decision.   But of the players I know, I see no pattern that would suggest that early deciders make poor decisons.

 

I think this is an appropriate contribution to this thread.  Both commits are 2017 grads.

 

"USC baseball Coach Dan Hubbs is finally beginning to gain some traction in recruiting top players from Southern California. The next key will be making sure they show up on campus.

The latest commitment comes from left-handed freshman pitcher Nick Pratto of Santa Ana Mater Dei. He was a teammate of outfielder Christian Moya of Bishop Amat on the USA 15U team that won the gold medal this summer in Colombia. Moya committed to USC earlier this week.

Pratto will make his varsity debut for Mater Dei this spring."

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/....story#axzz2e32tDU00

 

Originally Posted by MidAtlanticDad:

I think this is an appropriate contribution to this thread.  Both commits are 2017 grads.

 

"USC baseball Coach Dan Hubbs is finally beginning to gain some traction in recruiting top players from Southern California. The next key will be making sure they show up on campus.

The latest commitment comes from left-handed freshman pitcher Nick Pratto of Santa Ana Mater Dei. He was a teammate of outfielder Christian Moya of Bishop Amat on the USA 15U team that won the gold medal this summer in Colombia. Moya committed to USC earlier this week.

Pratto will make his varsity debut for Mater Dei this spring."

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/....story#axzz2e32tDU00

 

USC is probably right near the top of the programs illustrating the problematic nature of early verbals in baseball.  I believe they lost 5 or 6 of their top recruits to the MLB draft in June of 2013, including one player who went in the later rounds but ended up signing for just under $1,000,000. This has been a recurring theme for a number of years.

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.co...-more-prospects.html

 

Making the situation possibly more tenuous when looked at from early verbal perspectives is the fact the school went after Coach Savage of UCLA very hard during the Summer only to have their reported offer of $1,000,000 per year rejected. That led to Coach Hubbs moving from the interim to Head Coach with some type of contract extension.  On the Rivals board, more than a few avid USC fans question if Coach Hubbs can get the program back to being competitive in the Pac12 with the costs hovering near $60,000 per year and increasing and with the 11.7 limits.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

People have to do what they feel is right.  The trend now days is to get commitments as early as possible. Only a few years ago we held underclass events that had very few college recruiters in attendance.  Now there are hundreds of recruiters that attend and follow closely the top underclass players. Back then we would have 100 agents at those events looking to build a relationship with the most talented young kids.

 

In order to compete at the National level, colleges need to get commitments earlier than ever. If they wait until that last summer before the senior year, many of the very best players will have already committed. Good or bad, it is what it is, and it isn't likely to change anytime soon.  Obviously most all of this takes place at the upper DI level.  The power programs are very aware that they are among the dream schools for many young kids.

 

People need to understand that this early commitment can be a one way street.  Power programs don't get a sophomore to commit and then quit following him.  I have been at games and talked to college recruiters as they are watching a player that committed to them. I've heard comments like, "He can't play for us"!  or "He will never play for us"! Believe me, at this point the college wants out of that commitment. Some might say they are committed anyway, but do you want your son committed to a school that no longer wants him. Yes, it was their mistake, but you end up being the victim!  They will get rid of you, one way or another. 

 

Many times these early commitments take place at a college camp.  Recently we were shocked when a father told us his son had attended a high level DI camp and based solely on his performance at that camp was offered 60%.  His son later committed to that college.  This is a case of the college taking a chance because they have very little to lose. In the meantime the family and their son is extremely excited about all of this. The college saw the kid for two days indoors in the Winter.  We have seen the player many times over a two year period.  Unless he were to improve in a gigantic way, there is no way in hell he can play at the level he committed to.  What will likely happen... The program that he committed to is going to figure this out and the kid and his family are going to be devastated. The kid is a good player and can develop into a good college player at some level. But we are talking about a program that has played in the DI World Series in the recent past.  Things will work out in the end, the kid will probably end up at a much lesser program, but this is an example of a one sided commitment. You can like them forever and plan on honoring your commitment, but what happens when they no longer want you?

 

That said, many times these things work out well for everyone concerned.  But think about this... Lets pick any top power program... If they want to make you a great offer as a sophomore or even freshman in high school... Would they not be interested in your talent the following year or two.  They want the best players, they can get! Just see how interested they get when a senior to be is throwing 95 mph.  

 

Also it should be said that the player can always decommit and that happens quite a bit. But more often than not the big disappointments happen because the college changes their mind. This stuff has the biggest affect on the border line type players.  The best players in the country don't really need to commit early, though many of them do.  Recruiters want the best players early and they also want them later.  When that "best" player becomes available, they figure out how to get him in. Even if this means someone becomes a victim of the process.  

 

Please understand that I am talking in general terms here.  Not every program is alike! But overall recruiting is a dog eat dog business. The biggest dog usually wins!  The competition is fierce at the upper levels.  And for those that think professional baseball is any better, you are in for a real shocker.

 

Do what you think is right!  Every individual case is different. I've always been a single focus type person.  But I think people are better off having a plan B in this case, because you can bet the college program has a plan B.


I am sure you see a lot and are very informed. My son has participated in a few perfect Game tournaments and I know college scouts are in attendance usually for 16 year olds and older. I have heard they are there sometimes for younger kids also. I agree with you that if colleges want to back out of commitment they will find a way. My son is a sophomore now in HS. and has been offered by 2 schools this past summer 1 a Big D-1 Program and the other a smaller D-1 Program and a couple of other D-1 Programs have shown interest after seeing him play. It has been exciting and overwhelming starting so early. I know he has 3 years left and am just trying to make the best decision. My son being 15 right now I don't believe he is mature enough for a decision this big. I believe we should wait and try to enjoy the recruiting process if that is possible, but then I think should we commit and not have to worry about showcases or where he is going to school and just concentrate on getting bigger stronger and the best ball player he can be. He is excited of course that this big school has offered for him to play baseball and we really like the school. Education is the most important factor to us. Baseball will end.  Three years till he graduates so many things can change though Schools are always looking for the best Talent available which includes more mature Jucco transfers also. The agreement of course is Verbal and it looks bad if The player or the School breaks it. I know that commitments are not guaranteed by either side until you sign your letter of intent. I just think the best thing is to wait and hopefully everything will work out in the next year or two. It is Stressful thinking am I making the right decision but I believe waiting is probably best.

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