Finding it disturbing at the number of guys I personally know who either decommitted/were dropped from their committed schools or at the last minute the schools reduced their offers. Do they just figure the kids will walk on or take less of an offer? Anyone else seeing this as a trend?
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Happens every year , I’ve seen it happen to many kids I know .. you have to go in eyes wide open ..it’s a business , and the business is winning ! Especially at the higher level D1. Sucks when your famliy friend calls home crying that they tell him he will be redshirted after winter break .cuz he didn’t improve since soph year and they don’t see him playing there in the future .. keep your options open
Yeah, I realize it happens, I just am seeing it more this year
2022OFDad posted:Yeah, I realize it happens, I just am seeing it more this year
It will get worst every year, times are changing . I also think rankings have a lot to do with it . These kids and parents put a lot of value in rankings . Rankings only tell so much . And depends who’s ranking them . I can tell you this , most state top kids ranked are not all that . Go watch them play at a high level vs high level teams .
I've heard of several decommits as well. I’m not aware if it's worse than yesteryear, but I do assume it is, which is troubling. I wonder why it's getting worse:
When it comes to offer reductions there isn't a ton a player can do. Most kids will just sign with the reduction. If they were to reduce the offer from 60% to 25% do you walk away? What about 35% to 32%? The answer will vary by family and whether or not the player is willing to drop down a level.
c2019 posted:2022OFDad posted:Yeah, I realize it happens, I just am seeing it more this year
It will get worst every year, times are changing . I also think rankings have a lot to do with it . These kids and parents put a lot of value in rankings . Rankings only tell so much . And depends who’s ranking them . I can tell you this , most state top kids ranked are not all that . Go watch them play at a high level vs high level teams .
Rankings are entirely for the parents and kids, but are the coaches buying into now too and seeing that the player is actually over-hyped?
While sometimes it's the fault of the institution - usually due to too many rising seniors returning (not drafted as expected when the HS kid was offered) or to a HC turnover or an injury - most of the time it's at the margin of each NLI class and due to development, character or grade/score/academic issues. (It also occurs after the draft when some HS players do not sign as expected.)
Virtually no kid who can make admissions AND contribute to the team will be left behind.
Many times reduced scholarship amounts are simply part of the crunch caused by returning seniors; most of the time in those cases, a deal will be struck with the recuit to increase the scholarship in subsequent years (assuming eligibility, health, skills).
The behind the curtain issues are drivers for many situations; what most see are the results, not the process or reasons leading to the result.
I would like to know how many of these players committed in their HS Freshman or Soph year? I would think a lot more than the player who committed their junior or senior year.
2022OFDad posted:c2019 posted:2022OFDad posted:Yeah, I realize it happens, I just am seeing it more this year
It will get worst every year, times are changing . I also think rankings have a lot to do with it . These kids and parents put a lot of value in rankings . Rankings only tell so much . And depends who’s ranking them . I can tell you this , most state top kids ranked are not all that . Go watch them play at a high level vs high level teams .
Rankings are entirely for the parents and kids, but are the coaches buying into now too and seeing that the player is actually over-hyped?
I would say yes I’ve seen it happen.
JABMK posted:I would like to know how many of these players committed in their HS Freshman or Soph year? I would think a lot more than the player who committed their junior or senior year.
The last to commit is often the first to go. The guys committing freshman year are some of the best players in the country. Obviously it happens, but I'm not sure all that many players are burning out before they sign. In a class of 15 recruits, #s 12,13,14,15 are typically going to be the least likely to end up on the roster.
The ones I know about committed sophomore year. And Goosegg has a point about the school taking care of the guy on the back end of the deal, if the coach is still there and the player performs.
2022OFDad posted:Finding it disturbing at the number of guys I personally know who either decommitted/were dropped from their committed schools or at the last minute the schools reduced their offers. Do they just figure the kids will walk on or take less of an offer? Anyone else seeing this as a trend?
My son knows a 2019 who was committed to a pretty big D1 school. Then, suddenly, he's no longer committed. NLI day comes and goes - nada for him. My (2022) is still vexed by it. He trains with the kid sometimes and says he's the best damn hitter that he's ever seen. Takes 90+ and routinely sends it 400+ away. Also is an infielder with a STRONG ARM. Kids not talking about it. But, the story in the gym is that the school took it away at the last minute. My kid keeps asking me now "What's he going to do when he graduates?"
I guess the bigger question is: What can kids do to prevent being in this situation? Wait as long as possible to commit? Something else?
I think that is the answer, waiting longer to commit. But when the big school comes offering in the 9th and 10th grades, few can resist taking that offer.
The power lies with the schools until the rules change and all offers are signed in ink and irreversible.
c2019 posted:2022OFDad posted:Yeah, I realize it happens, I just am seeing it more this year
It will get worst every year, times are changing . I also think rankings have a lot to do with it . These kids and parents put a lot of value in rankings . Rankings only tell so much . And depends who’s ranking them . I can tell you this , most state top kids ranked are not all that . Go watch them play at a high level vs high level teams .
Rankings have nothing to do with it. Rankings look good on a resume - nothing more. Any coach that is recruiting based on rankings wont have a job very long. Coaches recruit based on what they see with their own eyes or (in some cases) what they hear from a trusted source.
For the senior players who get caught up with this, what are their options? Try and walk on somewhere? Play JUCO and hope to hook up with someone 2 years later? What's the smartest thing for them to do in terms of getting to play in college?
Francis, watching this unfold this year, I think there are two things a kid can do to avoid it: (1) continue to get better after committing; and (2) avoid committing to a place where the other commits are better-- one "sanity check " would be PG rankings (if you are at the bottom of the list of commits -- which are listed in rank order -- that might be a problem) and another would be metrics -- e.g., if you're a RHP topping out at 89, and there are three or four other RHP committed in your class who all top out at 92, watch out! (saw this exact scenario play out this month)
It’s definitely the college coaches fault for offering to freshman and sophomores.....but the kids take the hit when they don’t continue to develop. We have a 2020 hitting 90 and a 2021 hitting 93 (I saw it with my own eyes) and the P5s were all over them. The NCAA is a joke as we all know, but this getting crazy.
A D1 with 40000 students and a huge endowment, football/basketball TV money can have 11.7 scholarships while a Juco with 1/10th the students can offer 24 ...... seriously.
Francis7 posted:For the senior players who get caught up with this, what are their options? Try and walk on somewhere? Play JUCO and hope to hook up with someone 2 years later? What's the smartest thing for them to do in terms of getting to play in college?
It is always a good idea to have a Plan B in case something unforeseen happens. Developing a relationship with a good JUCO is never a bad idea. Its a good insurance policy and not a bad route if you need to take it. Especially for position players - most of which wont crack a starting lineup at any 4 year school as a freshman. Of course, the baseball side of things needs to be balanced with the academic but there are good JUCO programs where a player wont fall behind academically. You just have to do some digging.
one "sanity check " would be PG rankings (if you are at the bottom of the list of commits -- which are listed in rank order -
Is this right.....I didn’t know that.
The "smartest thing for them to do..." is:
1. Keep the grades up
2. Take the most rigorous course load possible, without sacrificing # 1.
3. Fish in the right pond! That could be JUCO (with priority on #1 & 2), making certain that courses are transferable & feed into the 4 yr college. Or, a mid-level D-1...or other level.
The priority is a degree that trains for a 30-40 yr career, USING baseball $$$'s to help pay for it.
baseballmom posted:The "smartest thing for them to do..." is:
1. Keep the grades up
2. Take the most rigorous course load possible, without sacrificing # 1.
3. Fish in the right pond! That could be JUCO (with priority on #1 & 2), making certain that courses are transferable & feed into the 4 yr college. Or, a mid-level D-1...or other level.
The priority is a degree that trains for a 30-40 yr career, USING baseball $$$'s to help pay for it.
Well said !!
How to prepare?
Be better than the other kids in your recruiting class. This kid might be the best hitter your son has ever seen, but he might be the 7th best hitter in his class. They might have a stud freshman with a stronger arm at the same position and don't see him in their plans.
Coaches make some very cold, but necessary, decisions that can really affect a family. Truth is that the coach won't be cutting the best players. Whether they committed 2 weeks ago or 2 years ago. When signing time comes, the coach is going to send NLIs to the guys he wants at his school.
adbono posted:Francis7 posted:For the senior players who get caught up with this, what are their options? Try and walk on somewhere? Play JUCO and hope to hook up with someone 2 years later? What's the smartest thing for them to do in terms of getting to play in college?
Developing a relationship with a good JUCO is never a bad idea.
Developing a good relationship with every school is a good idea. My 2018 is working for a pro career, but his plan B is to teach and coach. With that in mind, we all remember that every interaction with every coach at every level is an interaction with a potential employer, mentor or reference.
The more people you have saying good things about you, the better.
Iowamom23 posted:….Developing a good relationship with every school is a good idea. My 2018 is working for a pro career, but his plan B is to teach and coach. With that in mind, we all remember that every interaction with every coach at every level is an interaction with a potential employer, mentor or reference.
The more people you have saying good things about you, the better.
Lots of good posts here but this is SO important. So many things can happen and much can be out of the control of the player. Having established good relationships with other schools/coaches (and others who may turn into references, resources) along the way allows for more possibilities and maybe less complete chaos when this happens.
You have to know where you fit or would fit. There were some P5's that courted my son that he would have loved to have gone to but he would have been down on the totem pole on his team. I know you have to compete to finally get there but it is different when there are 5-7 other players who are statistically better than you on the same roster. We looked at the possibilities and made the best choice for my son. Some are not willing to be realistic when it comes to the roster of the offer. We have a friend that is going to a P5 school and he will have to work really hard to ever get on the field but he was willing to go to his dream school and maybe play over going somewhere else and playing. He and his family made a choice. We will see down the line if it is a good choice or not. I just wonder can he really sit on the bench and be happy or be a bullpen catcher.
Nonamedad posted:one "sanity check " would be PG rankings (if you are at the bottom of the list of commits -- which are listed in rank order -
Is this right.....I didn’t know that.
Yup.
Just to pick the school that pops up on the "College Commitments" page:
| Player | Pos | Ht | Wt | B-T | HS | Hometown | ST | College | |||
Nat Rank 6 |
| SS | 6-2 | 182 | L-R | Blessed Trinity Cath | Alpharetta | GA | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 19 |
| SS | 6-3 | 177 | R-R | Westlake | Smyrna | GA | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 204 |
| 3B | 6-1 | 205 | S-R | Ravenwood | Brentwood | TN | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 284 |
| C | 6-3 | 210 | L-R | A.N. Myer S.S. | Niagara Falls | ON | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 290 |
| LHP | 6-1 | 160 | L-L | Tomah | Tomah | WI | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 292 |
| SS | 5-11 | 180 | L-R | Northridge | Tuscaloosa | AL | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 341 |
| SS | 6-2 | 185 | R-R | Lake Brantley | Longwood | FL | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 401 |
| LHP | 6-3 | 190 | L-L | Haleyville | Haleyville | AL | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 413 |
| OF | 6-3 | 185 | R-R | Mcintosh | Peachtree City | GA | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 500 |
| RHP | 6-5 | 190 | L-R | Mountain Brook | Mountain Brook | AL | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 500 |
| C | 5-10 | 168 | S-R | Hoover | Hoover | AL | Alabama | ||
Nat Rank 500 |
| LHP | 6-2 | 170 | S-L | Pasco | Dade City | FL | Alabama |
baseballmom posted:The "smartest thing for them to do..." is:
1. Keep the grades up
2. Take the most rigorous course load possible, without sacrificing # 1.
3. Fish in the right pond! That could be JUCO (with priority on #1 & 2), making certain that courses are transferable & feed into the 4 yr college. Or, a mid-level D-1...or other level.
The priority is a degree that trains for a 30-40 yr career, USING baseball $$$'s to help pay for it.
I think as the back up to go juco will work ,if that juco doesn’t have dudes already on squad . People forget that plenty of dudes go to juco for a lot of reasons, grades .. Sat , draft eligibility .. juco is Definitely not what it used to be , some Juco compete with D1 schools and even play them in the fall
So many of these decomits didn't have baseball $ to start with nor a real plan as to how am I going to pay for this, they verbaled without a actually $ offer just to post on social media then when time comes it all falls through it's a tough lesson!
Nonamedad posted:one "sanity check " would be PG rankings (if you are at the bottom of the list of commits -- which are listed in rank order -
Is this right.....I didn’t know that.
You have to be logged in to see the rank, but yes.
2022OFDad posted:I think that is the answer, waiting longer to commit. But when the big school comes offering in the 9th and 10th grades, few can resist taking that offer.
The power lies with the schools until the rules change and all offers are signed in ink and irreversible.
I agree it’s tempting to take it from a power 5 , but personally know a few kids from power five schools who ended up redshirting your freshman year ,nobody ever talks about that , just talk about the good stuff , for example I know kids who committed to play at Schools like TCU , Iowa and Louisville etc who red shirted or had a handful of ABs.. they were highly ranked in HS / PG and PBR but in the eyes of the school not so much , a couple stayed at the school now they are rs . The others went to juco and are happy now .
I personally saw these kids play and didn’t understand how they were ranked where they were , not knocking the kid at all , just the system that gives them false hope. They gas them up so much .
I’ve also seen legit draft picks out of HS not take the money cuz their agent said they were worth more and never get drafted again because they didn’t improve
baseballmom posted:
The priority is a degree that trains for a 30-40 yr career, USING baseball $$$'s to help pay for it.
... and using baseball for motivation. There is no doubt in my mind that my son has performed at a higher level on the academic side of college because the baseball team is so important to him. Every year his focus has expanded more to include career goals. He didn't care nearly as much about that as a freshman, but he did the work and stayed on track mostly because he didn't want to risk anything on the baseball side.
c2019 posted:I agree it’s tempting to take it from a power 5 , but personally know a few kids from power five schools who ended up redshirting your freshman year ,nobody ever talks about that , just talk about the good stuff , for example I know kids who committed to play at Schools like TCU , Iowa and Louisville etc who red shirted or had a handful of ABs.. they were highly ranked in HS / PG and PBR but in the eyes of the school not so much , a couple stayed at the school now they are rs . The others went to juco and are happy now .
I personally saw these kids play and didn’t understand how they were ranked where they were , not knocking the kid at all , just the system that gives them false hope. They gas them up so much .
I’ve also seen legit draft picks out of HS not take the money cuz their agent said they were worth more and never get drafted again because they didn’t improve
I don't think the system gives false hope. You either perform or you don't. For many it will be the first time in their lives that they are not the best/not having success every single day. Some thrive and respond, others don't/can't handle it as well. There are also other factors that go into it (school work, family, girls, parties, living away from home, etc).
I also don't know why redshirting gets such a bad rep on here. I don't see anything wrong with redshirting. If there are older, more developed, experienced players and you are not ready to compete at that level yet, why not save the year of eligibility? How many freshman are starting/seeing meaningful playing time anyway?
I can agree with the red shirt it’s not the end all , my nephew RS at a Juco 1000 miles from home ,his choice .but to me and the kids I know who red shirted , that was not in their plans as they were ranked in the top 20 in their state , so they went in thinking I’m good enough , but I know they slacked off and didn’t! Work hard in that last winter of their SR year .
Re: redshirting
Five years to play four gives a kid an opportunity to gain admission to grad school just by having baseball eligibility remaining. The worst case scenario is in five years a kid should leave with one degree.
Son will play his junior year of college baseball this spring. Lowest ranked HS recruit out of 12 coming in. Only 4 of them left at school. He is the only one who has been named all conference and was one of two first team relief pitchers last year. Is 10-1 in decisions out of the pen over the last two years Oh and he tops at 85-87 with a PG rating of 7.
I say this to say don’t fall into rankings trap. Your son’s HC in college keeps his job by winning and losing. The guys he trust the most play the most. That trust is earned through production and many other factors.
Commit and then continue to work your tail off. Son committed one day prior to start of his junior year. Then got better each and every season playing against the top competition in the country.
Anyone who doesn’t develop is doomed to be left behind whether it is at NLI time or one fall later it all ends the same way from what I have seen. Every year my son spends in his college program I see and appreciate that his HC rarely gets this stuff wrong, and why he has had a team in regionals all but one year since I believ 2009.
Rankings don't mean splat. My son wen to his first PBR event in 2017 and came out highly ranked. He never went to another event and his rankings tanked, despite vastly improving over the next year and a half.
Keep feeding the beast and they'll sooth your ego by keeping the rankings up. If not, those who do will get slotted ahead of you. Why would they want to upset a paying customer?
CTbballDad posted:Rankings don't mean splat. My son wen to his first PBR event in 2017 and came out highly ranked. He never went to another event and his rankings tanked, despite vastly improving over the next year and a half.
Keep feeding the beast and they'll sooth your ego by keeping the rankings up. If not, those who do will get slotted ahead of you. Why would they want to upset a paying customer?
Your example would not hold up in Texas. In each state PBR is an independently owned franchise. The guy in Texas (Toby Bicknell) does a great job and ranks players based on what he sees - not by who pays him and who doesn't.
adbono posted:CTbballDad posted:Rankings don't mean splat. My son wen to his first PBR event in 2017 and came out highly ranked. He never went to another event and his rankings tanked, despite vastly improving over the next year and a half.
Keep feeding the beast and they'll sooth your ego by keeping the rankings up. If not, those who do will get slotted ahead of you. Why would they want to upset a paying customer?
Your example would not hold up in Texas. In each state PBR is an independently owned franchise. The guy in Texas (Toby Bicknell) does a great job and ranks players based on what he sees - not by who pays him and who doesn't.
Excellent point. Me and my darn blanket statements...the board thanks you!
CTbballDad posted:adbono posted:CTbballDad posted:Rankings don't mean splat. My son wen to his first PBR event in 2017 and came out highly ranked. He never went to another event and his rankings tanked, despite vastly improving over the next year and a half.
Keep feeding the beast and they'll sooth your ego by keeping the rankings up. If not, those who do will get slotted ahead of you. Why would they want to upset a paying customer?
Your example would not hold up in Texas. In each state PBR is an independently owned franchise. The guy in Texas (Toby Bicknell) does a great job and ranks players based on what he sees - not by who pays him and who doesn't.
Excellent point. Me and my darn blanket statements...the board thanks you!
No problem. I have examined myself and decided that I am not offended in the least !
