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First Pitch Strikes

CADadCADad5,000+ posts
My son threw in an intrasquad game the other day and gave up a couple runs. He was facing the meat of the order for both of those innings as they had 4 of the team's better hitters go up against the team's ace and then against him, but both of the runners who scored reached base on walks. I used this to stress the importance of first pitch strikes to him as he tends to try to throw "perfect" pitches on the first pitch a little too often then has to work from behind. They were starting with a 1-1 count so first pitch strikes were even more important.

My question is, how much should a pitcher "give in" to get the first pitch strike?

I realize it depends to some degree how good their stuff is relative to the hitters they are facing, and I recognize the value of a "get me over" first pitch curve in some situations but let's stick with the first pitch fastball for this discussion.

Should a pitcher be trying to hit a corner on the first pitch with their fastball or should they simply be trying for the outer or inner half of the plate?

This will be especially important for him to figure out this weekend as they're playing a team that has won multiple national championships and will probably make a run at it again this season.
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B BobbleheadDoll5,000+ posts
I have seen too many 1st pitch HRs to say that a 1st pitch should be always thrown for a strike. Some batters are taught not to swing at the 1st pitch but I like a pitcher that mixes it up.
Some coaches want pitchers to th row 1st pitch CBs and work on that. To me a pitcher should know whar is working for him on a given day and work with those pitches. If he can tell the batter is a free swinger and will go at the 1st pitch keep it on the corners and low. A pitcher should not be afraid to walk a batter and use his CBs even in a full count situation. Never give in.
T Texan1,000+ posts
SK, who once visited this site, has a large database of very detailed HS pitching stats. Some time back, I calculated from his stats that if the first pitch is a strike, 70% of the time an out results.

Often, you can tell if a team is in the "take until you get a strike" mode. If this is the case, move the aim point into the zone a little more. Don't try to clip the corner.

Once they start swinging freely, as they probably eventually will when the pitcher is throwing first pitch strikes, then that opens up first pitch changeup, etc.
CADadCADad5,000+ posts
Texan,
I don't remember SKs data but I seem to remember that about 50% of first pitch strikes are taken. Assuming a very good HS hitter who hits .500 on balls put in play and assuming that he puts 2/3 of the first pitch strikes he swings at in play then you'd get a strike on about 2/3 of first pitch strikes, a hit on 1/6 of them and an out on about 1/6 of them. Given 6 batters faced you'd have one hit, one out, and an 0-1 count on 4 hitters at which point their average starts going down. So facing very good hitters you'd be at an advantage throwing first pitch strikes as long as you didn't absolutely groove the pitch. That's all speculation with no hard data behind it of course.

I think one of the reasons Bonds was able to have such a high average during his big home run seasons was that he very seldom saw a first pitch strike.
Last edited by CADad
B BobbleheadDoll5,000+ posts
Your question was about 1st pitch strikes.
I would guess that the hard thrower had trouble throwing strikes period compared to the other huy.
Wins and losses don't mean much to me as there are too many factors inmvolved. Both sound like good pitchers with respectable stats.
Working in relief can be tougher to get great stats. Starter who get in their rythm usually can put up more innings with better stats if they are good. relievers often go in against a team which is on a hot streak and have to shut them down. A good reliever can save a starters tail when they are running out ofr gas. Even a good coach who knows his starters limits can make a huge difference in the guys stats.
I find stats interesting but only a fraction of the whole storey.
Using HS data is even worse.
H Homerun041,000+ posts
It is all about establishing control. If the pitcher can early in the game establish that he can throw first pitch strikes, he can then go to throwing pitches off the plate and get the hitter to go fishing for a pitch that looks like a strike and the umpire to call strikes when out of the zone.

If the pitcher can not establish that he can throw the first pitch for a strike, the hitter then has a great advantage that he knows most likely he does not have the control to throw a strike with control where and when he needs to.

For a good hitter, batting averages go up in certain situations and latter in the count.

Win and losses do count over the long run, you can make all the excuses you want but at the end of the day, it matters to the coach and the team.

Baseball is a game of statistics and is very relevant beyond high school, if they don’t matter, why do pro and college teams have so detailed statistics?
CADadCADad5,000+ posts
Relievers tend to have better stats because the hitters are only seeing them once and because they come in with outs already on the board.

Both of the pitchers I mentioned are excellent talents and Hunter will probably go much earlier in the draft than Enright did.

I'm simply saying that throwing a high percentage of first pitch strikes is valuable and that in order to do so there has to be some degree of give. The question is how much is appropriate at a given level.
T Texan1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by Homerun04:
It is all about establishing control. If the pitcher can early in the game establish that he can throw first pitch strikes, he can then go to throwing pitches off the plate and get the hitter to go fishing for a pitch that looks like a strike and the umpire to call strikes when out of the zone.

You bring up a very good and valid point. A pitcher who shows command early on will tend to get more marginal pitches (or even pitches that are close misses) called strikes than a pitcher who started off having control problems. That old first impression thing...
BOFBOF10,000+ posts
Perry Husband has the data on first pitch strikes from the inside edge data base,(for MLB) but I don't have the book here at work. I will look it up and post it tomorrow.

One great suggestion from him is to approach each new batter mentally thinking it is a 3-2 count. Might help him get focused for that important first pitch.
B BobbleheadDoll5,000+ posts
Wins and losses matter to a team but is not reflective of a pitchers talent.
I see many a great game pitched by an excellent pitcher and he gets no win. My son threw a perfect game and didn't get a win.
One of the guys who got drafted with a 9-2 record throws mid 90s. He was in a weak conference and it just had no bearing on his being drafted.
If you look at the importance of a 1st strik pitch it depends on the pitcher and the hitter. My son has intentionally stayed out of the strike zone on a kid having a stellar day. He would rather nibble at the corners knowing this guy wants to hit. He would rather walk him in certain circumstances.
That fact that you don't throw a 1st pitch strike dosen't extrapolate into a pitcher who can't throw strikes. Any data is skewed by the pitchers who have trouble throwing a strike so the data would not be valid in making a decision tp throw a strike on a 1st pitch.
T Texan1,000+ posts
How about this?

There is an advantage to getting a strike called on the first pitch (whether the pitch was in the zone, or out of the zone & got swung at & missed).

At the higher levels of ball, relatively few hitters will chase a first pitch that is out of the zone.

While there are exceptions to almost everything, as a rule it is a good practice to start a game throwing the first pitch in the strike zone (albeit not right down the pipe).
Last edited by Texan
H Homerun041,000+ posts
That is part of game management, what type of batter is the pitcher facing? Is the batter going to let the first pitch go, if he is not, what type of pitch will be most effective against the batter for the first pitch that he will either let go or not.

To be an effective pitcher you need to be confident of your skills, if you pitch afraid, you may want to hang it up….because you are going to get hammered.
trojan-skippertrojan-skipper1,000+ posts
quote:
Should a pitcher be trying to hit a corner on the first pitch with their fastball or should they simply be trying for the outer or inner half of the plate?


A lot of that depends on how "locked in" your pitcher is that day. He should know after a few pitches if he can paint that day or not... he's got to make the adjustments. Some days the control is going to be outstanding; and some days it isn't and the battle takes on different parameters.
BOFBOF10,000+ posts
OK gents here are the facts from the inside edge data on MLB pitchers from 4/2004 to 10/2006. You will have to extrapolate (and make your own assumptions for HS baseball).

Count Bave Strike %
0-0 .336 59%
0-1 .316 58%
0-2 .166 54%
1-0 .338 65%
1-1 .323 64%
1-2 .178 63%
2-0 .346 68%
2-1 .335 70%
2-2 .193 70%
3-0 .365 66%
3-1 .356 72%
3-2 .230 78%
Totals
.265 63%

It is pretty clear that pitchers (MLB) can throw strikes when they want to (I know DUH...) and you better get them in early since it does not get any easier. I suspect the data for HS pitchers would have the same trends with the strike % being the largest variable.

Still pretty clear: Pitchers get your first strikes in.
B BobbleheadDoll5,000+ posts
quote:
Some days the control is going to be outstanding; and some days it isn't and the battle takes on different parameters




This is the main reason stats are useless in the decion to throw a 1st pitch strike. If you could eliminate the guys having a bad day and several other factors these historical facts may have some relevance. There are several models that eliminate extremes that result from a pitcher having a bad day. There are so many things that affect stats.
BB is a game dealing with humans who influence results. Umpires with tight strike zones, players tripping over their own feet etc etc. Yes even pros have bad days and make bad plays. BB fields can create bad hopes and there are so many things that can influence the game. Stats attempt to reflect historical info and are subject to all those influences.
BOFBOF10,000+ posts
This is the main reason stats are useless in the decion to throw a 1st pitch strike.

Stats attempt to reflect historical info and are subject to all those influences.[/QUOTE]

You are clueless if you don't use stats to establish and game plan and direction for your team. You are also clueless if you don't set objectives for your pitchers to throw first pitch strikes. Does that mean you do it to all hitters...no. Yes stats are historical, but they are indicative on what happens in the future. You set a strategy and plan based on them. The advent of computers and data collection methods are allowing intelligent baseball managers have a better insight into decisions on the field. Then what happens in the game is just that...a happening, but the happening is less random based on your decisions guided by the statistics. You gather the data from that game and move on for the next game.

The beauty of the game is its randomness, but to not utilize as much data that is available for your on field decisions foolish.
CADadCADad5,000+ posts
BOF,
Those stats show that when a hitter puts the ball in play their batting average is a bit over .300 with some improvement when the hitter is ahead in the count. The reason the averages are lower with 2 strikes is the fact that you can't strike out on a pitch when you've got less than 2 strikes in the count. The reason they aren't quite as low with a 3-2 count is that you can't walk until you get a pitch with a 3 ball count.

What they do say is that you are better off getting ahead of the hitter and that there isn't a big penalty for throwing first pitch strikes in terms of batting average against.
Last edited by CADad
BOFBOF10,000+ posts
CAdad,

You are correct regarding the strike out part of the equation, but you also have to account for balls in play. The stats I did not put up were the well-hit which are:

0-0 .065
0-1 .092
0-2 .084
1-0 .094
1-1 .103
1-2 .092
2-0 .102
2-1 .123
2-2 .106
3-0 .027
3-1 .140
3-2 .136

Which again point to "throw first strikes". The whole point of my taking the time to put the stats up were to give CAson some statistically information on why to throw first strikes. We all know it is important, but the statistics back it up. There is also the whole concept of pitching to contact (the pitchers) and reducing pitch counts within a game, which is a whole other argument. (and thread)
H Homerun041,000+ posts
Thanks for all the stats.

Throwing first strikes and pitching to contact (with good location and movement) are great pitching approaches as it reduces the amount of pitches and it also has a great advantage of keeping the fielders in the game as it gains confidence that their pitcher can throw strikes and it keeps them on their toes by making plays.
B BobbleheadDoll5,000+ posts
I am not sure how the decision to throw a strike on 1st pitch leads to all this stuff.
A pitcher faces a batter that is free swinging and he throws a pitch that is not a strike but is intended to induce a swing. ie it is not over the plate but gets a swinging strike. It is not that a pitcher intends to throw a ball it is that he wants a hitter to come after the pitch which will be a ball if the batter doesn't come after it. It is also true on a 3rd strike pitch with a low ball count that you don't want to throw a strike but you do want the batter to chase it. How many pitchers grove a pitch with 2 strikes on a batter ?
My
point is that you don't always want to throw a 1st pitch strike. Yes you do like to get ahead in the count but being 1-0 just makes you even.
B BobbleheadDoll5,000+ posts
Those stats as I stated are skewed.
If you throw an off the plate pitch which is swung at it is called a strike but it was not thrown as a strike. Like the CB that hits in front of the plate and is swung on.
I am talking about the location of the pitch as opposed to the results. i have known the historical info for years.
My point is that overall it is statistically better to throw 1st pitch strikes but you have to adjust to the batter. I would rather see my son throw off the plate pitches or out of the strike zone pitches to a hot hitter/slugger.
Last edited by BobbleheadDoll
igballigball500+ posts
It's obvious that you need to get ahead of the hitter to be effective. However just throwing any ball for a 'Strike' doesn't work either.
A fast ball down the middle will get crushed more often than not. You need to command your fastball to hit spots in the strike zone as well as having another pitch or two that you can locate for strikes. Accomplishing these goals from the first pitch to the last will make you an effective pitcher.
Last edited by igball
JW jerry weinstein10+ posts
HR
Very much pitcher dependent. Maddux for example doesn't nind pitching from behind because when he gets hitters sitting on fastballs, he can throw change ups for strikes. In general, I think that in general pitchers at all levels tend to look at 0-0 batting averages(which are high) & pitch too defensively. IMO it becomes more of a stuff over location approach rather than location over stuff. They tend to throw their strike 3 pitch on strike 1.
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