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Grim statistics?

G Goosegg10,000+ posts
Grim and irrefutable statistics: 3 out of 100 senior high school pitchers; 2 out of 100 senior high school catchers; 4 out of 100 senior high school infielders; and 1.5 out of 100 senior high school outfielders have a freshman roster spot waiting for them at the D1 level in college.

Are you/is your son one of them?

Please, if you have the time and inclination review the underlying assumptions that went into this interesting (and unhappy revelation), and pick it apart!

Total NCAA 4-year college baseball programs: D 1 – app. 300, D 2 - 250, D 3 - 390. Totaling app. 950 NCAA 4- year baseball programs. http://web1.ncaa.org/onlineDir/exec/sponsorship

Total number of senior high school varsity baseball players: 136,580. http://www.ncaa.org/wps/ncaa?k...ability+of+Competing

Total number of freshman roster spots: app. 8700. http://www.ncaa.org/wps/ncaa?k...ability+of+Competing

(I think that the 8700 roster spots is a bit conservative, so in my quick and dirty analysis, I bumped up the freshman roster spots to 10 per team (for example, power d1’s will have lots more spots since most of their players will be gone in three years [maybe 13+ roster freshman spots open per year]; while d3’s and some d1’s will have 30 players mostly staying for 4 years [thus having 7 – 8 freshman spots open per year]. 950 teams times 10 players = 9500 freshman roster spots. (Note the issue with JUCO players: I did not include them because essentially for every JUCO player entering JUCO, a JUCO player leaves for a four year school – so the net is a wash on the number of players that enter/seek to enter d1.)

So, globally, 3500 freshman spots are open in d1, 2500 in d2, and 3500 in d3.

Let’s now look at the roster openings by a position breakdown.

Take a d1 power which has 35 roster spots: 16 pitchers; 4 catchers; 7 infielders; 8 outfielders (we can quibble about these breakdowns; but they’re close enough for the sake of this analysis [also realize that players can/will play multiple positions]). Over all, assume that a college player will be there for 3.5 yrs (some team’s players head for the draft; others don’t so I used 3.5 yrs [and so did the NCAA in its analysis]) http://www.ncaa.org/wps/ncaa?k...+-+prob+of+competing)

One thing that jumps out is that pitchers make up almost 50% of the recruiting needs of any team. (Which is why, unless you hit the snot out of the ball, if faced with a choice of pitching or hitting, focus on pitching!) So, EVERY year a D1 team (on average) will need 5 pitchers; 1 catcher; 1.5 middle infielders; 1.5 corners; 2 outfielders. That means that collectively, D1s will need 1500 pitchers, 300 catchers, 450 middle infielders, 450 corner infielders, and 600 outfielders. (With another 200 positions to be distributed wherever.)

Assume that of all the high school seniors playing baseball (136,000), 40% are pitchers (average hs roster 20; number of pitchers 8 [note: it doesn’t matter that hs rosters are not solely seniors; what matters here is the ratio of position players to pitchers on an average hs roster.]). That means that there are 54,400 SENIOR pitchers vying for 1500 D1 spots. In other words, 2.7% of those pitchers will have a roster spot in D1. (If you care to do the math, the remaining divisions account for another app. 2800 pitchers. Therefore, counting all NCAA 4-yr colleges, app 8% of all hs senior pitchers will have a roster spot. (I didn’t count NAIA only because I got lazy. But obviously, that increases the number of roster spots open to hs seniors in 4 year colleges.)

For position players, the odds in D1 are even worse – especially if that player is limited to a single position: catchers 2% [app. 7% in ncaa 4 yr schools](each hs roster has 2 out of 20; thus there are approximately 13,600 senior catchers vying for 300 d1 spots); middle and corner infielders 1.7% each [app. 5% in all ncaa 4 yr schools] (each hs roster has 4 out of 20; thus there are27,200 senior players vying for 450 d1 spots each for middle and corner)); outfielders 1.5% [ app. 4.6% in ncaa 4 yr. colleges] (each hs roster has 6 out of 20; thus there are almost 41,000 senior outfielders competing for 600 d1 spots).

While these statistics are only that and can be manipulated in oh so many ways – it is irrefutable evidence that it is hard – **** hard – to play baseball at a d1 (not as hard; but still really hard when all the divisions are considered).

So, as TR has pointed out (and as so many parents cannot bear to recognize), sometimes the TALENT of the player just isn’t in the very top echelon (the desire may be; but. . . . .) and hard realistic choices should be considered (e.g., if you’re not getting d1 looks, look at a program more in tune with the talent level—including schools which have club baseball teams).

Sometimes on this website, one can get a distorted view of the process and the quality and success of high school players in general (there being so many players/sons who have made it through the strainer into college ball)!
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N ne14bb10+ posts
Well done though I am not claiming to have double checked your math because if I may paraphrase Ricky Henderson "math and me do not get along too good."

If it is not too difficult for you am wondering if you can re-work your equations with what will be the norm for current 2010 grads and beyond as in the NCAA mandate of reducing D1 teams to 30 man rosters.

If my math is correct that is about a 15% decrease in team roster sizes so it has to significantly reduce your numbers yes? No?
ClevelandDadClevelandDadHSBBWeb Administrator
I love numbers so I loved your post. Welcome to the hsbbweb btw!

Are the statistics grim? I suppose that is one way of looking at it but exclusivity is one of the things that makes college baseball at any level very special. If a young man can get a coach to recruit him and even better find his way on to the field at the next level, there is no better feeling in the world. It takes a special young man to go out there and risk failing at something they love to do. I have great respect for all kids who try.
CPLZCPLZ1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by ne14bb:
...as in the NCAA mandate of reducing D1 teams to 30 man rosters.


You've been misinformed. There are no plans for roster size reductions from the current level of 35 at D1.

But, anyone that can quote Sir Ricky, is ok in my book (some would call it a pamphlet, others a flyer)...welcome to the HSBBW.
Last edited by CPLZ
observer44observer441,000+ posts
.
Great statistics...valuable....should be required reading for every family going trough the system.

On the other hand...even knowing the odds...I always kinda looked at it like this...


1. You don't need 9,500 roster spots you only need 1 of them...yours.

2. We have found that at every level there are a large % of players who for many different reasons, have only a passing interest in the next level. It changes the odds significantly for those who have a passion to move on.

3. Odds are, given the current state of financial affairs that I cannot find another job at this point, but if I have no choice, I will certainly find a way. Passion works much the same way, a player with a dream may not see any other way, and likely will go to greater legnths.

4. We need dreamers. It is part of the human condition to dream and to beat the odds. Takes the presure off, everyone expects you to fail, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Take a shot. Never know if you don't try. Leave no questions unanswered. Walk away at the very least knowing you gave it everything you had.

5. Someone is going to fill those spots, it might as well be you. Forget the odds, become the best you can be, persevere, work, adapt, adjust, overcome.

6. Athletes peak at different age levels, whose to say your best years are not before you?

7. One coach told us early, most every kid who wants to play college ball, and is willing to work, can find a place...if he REALLY wants to play ball. A player who has a real passion to play, one who holds up his end and wears down the doors will find a way....somewhere...DI, DII, DIII, NAIA, JC. While this is NOT universally true, we have seen that hold true more than we had ever expected. Some of the kids we have met....A Kid who pitched but didn't star on a small HS team beating his way through 150 players onto one of the countries best DII teams as a freshman, and sticking there for 4 years. A kid who was last on the roster at a high end CA JC for 2 years, learned enough to make a DIII. A fair HS pitcher but good athlete who showcased a bunch and was ignored by EVERY school, walked on a JC team, RS year, under 10 innings the next, then had a good year, still little DI interest, walked on and made a high end DI team. Player too short, too thin, gets some interest but not much and no baseball $ but is offered a roster spot. Coaches there with professional experience find things in him that no one else does, bring out hitting and defensive skills that make him a potential high draft pick.

8. At some level this thing is just as much a marathon as a sprint. We have experinced many, many players WITH great talent, many DI or minor league talent, who lose focus, lose their way....mess up in the classroom...Get involved with alchohol or drugs (MJ incuded)...LEAVING spots for the less talented but the more comitted, and those who are willing to persevere. We have benefitted from this. Some of the kids we have seen fail...great HS IF, one of the quckest releases we saw, cut from one JC team, still recruited heavily by another (figure he would move and prove them wrong?) Nope goes into a funk gets addicted to video games quits going to class all together never went back to school. Left a spot open for someone else. Highly, highly thought of recruit, certain draft pick, blows out of DI for grades, Goes to JC, blows out of there...left openings at TWO schools. Two of many we have seen.

9. The statistics given only strengthen my view that this whole process was never about baseball success it is about human development, it iss about life lessons. It is about learning to test the odds, with courage and perseverence and discipline. It is about a wholesome, healthy, shared family activity. The level, the end results, are not as important as the process.

10. The college odds look pretty good when you consider the professional odds. College ball at some level is a hard, but worthy goal.

I like those odds....


Cool 44
.
Last edited by observer44
Rob KremerRob Kremer1,000+ posts
So by your estimates there are 9,500 freshman roster spots in college baseball, and about 135,000 high school seniors. Sounds about right.

Even though that looks as if one out of 14 or so high school seniors would on average be able to go on to HS ball, it has been my observation that decent ballplayers can find a place to play in college if that is what they want to do.

For example, my son's junior year of high school, there were six seniors on the team. All six went on to play college ball. One of them got a D1 scholly, the rest were JUCO and DIII.

One of the DIII's was a pitcher who never was in the starting rotation and saw very few innings during the league season. He had a little upside, threw high 70's. Hardly a star, but was the kind of kid who you figured still had his best innings ahead of him.

He found a place to play.

If a kid wants to play college baseball, I think most can find a place even if he wasn't a star in high school.
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
Of the large number of high school seniors, there is a large percentage that have no goal of playing baseball in college.

While the odds might still be long, I think you would have to consider all openings for freshman including JC and NAIA. I don't understand why JC freshman wouldn't be counted. Especially when the number of freshman at JC's is more than 50% of the rosters. The players leaving and going to 4 year schools were freshman at JCs when they started. Seems like you would have to count those openings.

At any rate, I think the odds for reaching the next level need to be tough, be it academics, baseball, or any other sport.
L 2014_Lefty_Dad100+ posts
[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:
Of the large number of high school seniors, there is a large percentage that have no goal of playing baseball in college. [QUOTE]

PG, I am glad you brought this up because this is what I was thinking. I see this all the time with players making teams and remember when I played Football in HS. I did not have the interest in working hard enough to play in college. I had the skills and size, but not the desire. I had a coach talk to me one day about a College opportunity but I said I was not interested. I was just interested in being successful in HS.

I think there are a lot of HS baseball players that fall into that same category.

It does show, though, that if you are interested in playing in College, you had better do the work because there are not that many spots available.
B Blprkfrnks100+ posts
I think there are several good points brought up here that skew the stats.

The point about the JC's and NAIA for one. That is college baseball. You have to count all freshman.

Also, the point about some kids not having it in their plans to play at that level. Or kids not having the academics or desire to even go to college at all.

As my son is talking to 1st and 2nd year college students, he is finding a huge number of kids that were star athletes in HS, but are choosing to play at the college club level. Club sports are booming in colleges, as it allows athletes to play in a well organized, competitive setting, without a coach owning their time and dictating their major.

Because of these variables, I do think it is easier for the truly dedicated player to play college baseball than these stats suggest.
ClevelandDadClevelandDadHSBBWeb Administrator
ob44 - what an outstanding post - I have come to expect nothing less Smile

I think the 135,000 number is about right. It takes more than physical talent to play in college or beyond imho. It takes some modicum of physical talent to be sure. I like to use the phrase "decent" talent. You don't need to be the most talented player on your high school team but you have to have some baseball ability at the end of the day. The second part of the equation is desire which equates to or is a component of mental talent imho. When someone tells me so and so was talented enough but didn't have the desire, I fail to see the distinction between that and not having enough talent to begin with. If you don't have the desire, that is the same thing in my mind as not having enough talent.

Thus, for the guys out there who think they are good enough but don't have the desire, you might as well say you don't have the talent imho. It takes talent imho to go out there and compete, remain eligible, and win a roster spot.
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
The more I think about it, it seems like the odds are not as bad as it seems.

Using "Goosegg's" numbers...

136,580 hs seniors

Not sure what the national average would be, but a % of these seniors will not even go to college.

I would "guess" that well over half of those who go to college have no intention of playing baseball in college.

A % simply don't have the ability to play in college. And a % will not be qualified academically to play in college.

A % will suffer injuries that could limit their chances.

A % of these senior baseball players participate in other sports and some will end up playing the other sport in college.

We have seen some who would only play at the highest level. When that doesn't work, they give it up, which opens up opportunities for some of those who want it the most.

A very small % will go to professional baseball.

Another % simply will not do what it takes to play at the next level.

Anyway, in the end, we have an unknown number of hs seniors that should really be considered in the college baseball pool. The odds might still be long, but in reality they're much better than what the simple raw numbers show.

Besides, the numbers should make no difference to any individual player. The odds are not the same for everyone! The odds on Jameson Taillon playing at the next level, barring any serious health issues, is 100%. The odds on little Jimmy from International Falls, MN might be closer to 0%.
Last edited by PGStaff
ClevelandDadClevelandDadHSBBWeb Administrator
PG - good post.

I respectfully disagree "somewhat" with your analysis however. 135,000 represents the number of high school senior boys playing baseball in high school. How many of them would continue to play in college if each of them were "assured" a spot on a college roster somewhere?

My guess is the numbers would go through the roof. Suppose all a kid had to do was make his high school team to be assured a college roster spot. Then, I am guessing many of those same kids would play under those circumstances. Many people say they are giving it up because they have NO other choice but to give it up. Thus, I think the 135,000 number is about right - assuming my assumption has "some" validity i.e., that if a roster spot existed for ALL high school players that many of them would choose to continue playing.

Not trying to be a wiseguy here, but I think this is an interesting topic. Please feel free to shoot my assumptions down Big Grin
Last edited by ClevelandDad
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
I too think this is a great topic.

I imagine that if all hs seniors were assured of playing in college, a large number would do that. Same for football, basketball, etc.

Guess I'm not following the "assured" part, we all know that doesn't exist.

However, the senior in hs that is sitting on the bench for his hs team, probably doesn't expect to be assured a college roster spot.

In addition to the more well known things we are involved with, we try to stay very close to what is going on in high school baseball. On most high school teams, there are only a few, if that, that are seriously considering persuing playing college baseball. In our region we even know who most of these kids are. We have even seen very talented players who have no interest in playing college baseball.

Also, as these stats relate to those who participate on the HSBBW, I would guess that nearly all who post or read here have an interest in college baseball. The large % who don't have any interest are not likely to be here this morning reading this.

I would guess that the percentage of players or parents who are participate or follow the HSBBW will be fairly high as to having a chance of playing college baseball.

Then again, maybe I'm wrong. What can I say? I've never been a big believer in odds, anyway. They just clutter the mind!
C catfish342100+ posts
I agree with CD here. The difficulty remains,, even if you throw out the players who have no desire to play at the next level. Let's face it, many of them lose that desire when they come to the realization that they probably will not be able to compete with the best players who are moving up. I'd add more, but O44 already summed many of my thoughts so well that it would be pointless. That was a really, really fine post.

One other thing that would be interesting to track statistically. How many players that get to a college baseball program are gone after one semester, one year or two years? As difficult as it is to make it out of HS to college, it's probably even more difficult to survive the grind (academics, time commitment, competition for playing time) for four/five seasons. That's the real achievement.
G Goosegg10,000+ posts
The sieve (or filter, funnel, speed bumps, barriers):

All senior high school males;

All senior high school baseball players;

All senior high school baseball players who would like to play in college (wish, dream, desire, hope, etc.);

All senior hs baseball players who have the work ethic required to act upon those wishes (through work in the classroom, on the diamond, in the weight room, etc.);

All senior hs baseball players who have the talent necessary to find a place on the diamond in college;

All senior hs baseball players who have the economic wherewithal to pay for college (by themselves, family, loans, scholarships, etc.);

All senior hs baseball players who don’t sign a pro contract (500 -800 per year?); and

All senior hs baseball players who are physically able to play in college.

To be sure, each barrier (filter) reduces the population from which the roster is selected.

To be sure it is a marathon; each barrier overcome is a life lesson – which at the end of a career (whenever that may be) is what remains.

(BTW, JC’s weren’t counted because they (or a good portion of the original group) enter the “work force” in two years and crowd out players who already found a roster spot as a freshman. That analysis is a whole different area.)

BTW, NAIA has 208 schools that play baseball. http://graphics.fansonly.com/s...df/qual_BASEBALL.pdf. So, the odds of earning a freshman roster spot (assuming 30 players to a roster with the same basic assumptions as the first post) increase roughly 20%. So, for a pitcher who had an 8% chance of an ncaa 4 yr college freshman roster spot has increased his odds to 10.6% when NAIA is included; catchers go from 7% to 8.4%; infielders from 5% to 6%; outfielders from 4.6% to roughly 5.5%. Note also: that the statistics look like they get more precise when that is the opposite from the truth as rounding errors tend to really mount up when you get into .1%’s.)
P PGStaff10,000+ posts
quote:
Let's face it, many of them lose that desire when they come to the realization that they probably will not be able to compete with the best players who are moving up.


Not arguing, just giving my opinion on this topic, FWIW. I guess it is just how one looks at the numbers. IMO those you have described above are not part of the equation.

The true numbers, regarding the odds, involve how many spots are there for those going after those spots. Should we also include those who are not going after the opportunity? Even those who don’t plan on going to college or plan to play a different sport? The largest number of those playing baseball is in the younger ages. Some continue, many don’t, many reasons, nothing is guaranteed.

We could include the entire male HS senior population and ask what the odds are of playing varsity baseball. Obviously it would be a fairly low number, but it is a number. Then we could add every male senior into the playing college baseball as a freshman numbers and it would make the odds even worse.

I guess, I believe that if any kid has some ability and is willing to work hard and do what it takes... He has a pretty darn good chance of playing college baseball at some level. I don't think the odds are insurmountable. Yet the odds are insurmountable for some.

Bottom line… To me the odds are insignificant when it comes to a single person in most anything they want to pursue. The more you want something the better the odds get.

I think that O44's post was the best. In fact, I think he covered it all pretty good. I especially liked his last line…
quote:
I like those odds....
C CaBB1,000+ posts
Agreed this is a great subject to discuss-thanks Goosegg for bringing it up.

As usual O'44 nails it. With having 2 boys he's seen most everything imaginable and has an incredible sense of what goes on in hs and college bb.

Now that my son is a soph in college it's been interesting to follow many kids through high school and now college. What strikes me most is that the player has to have all the components to compete in college. They have to be very focused to keep up with academics, 5:30 am weight lifting/conditioning, off season work-outs, grueling summer ball schedule (maybe far away from friends/family), and the overwhelming desire to continually get better on the field.

These things alone will most likely weed out many players as time goes on. Talent alone just isn't enough. They have to have the drive and desire to be competitive. Some of the parents I've seen though the years in high school have more of the drive than their kid does. Those are the players that may not make it to the next level.

So, I think despite the odds of playing college baseball if the player has a deep passion for the game and talent there is a spot for them in college. It may not be D1 but there are so many places to play and get a good education they need to look at all divisions.
C catfish342100+ posts
PG, you'd get no argument from me that desire can be as important as talent. A player, of course, must start with some level of talent to even be considered, but desire and drive can be a determining factor in whether someone makes a college roster. That drive also keep can keep a college career going when more talented players fall by the wayside.

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