Harper & Machado

I figure Machado and Harper get 8/300M contracts.

I’m curious to see how much teams overpay for players not worth the money. Eovaldi and Kelly overperformed in the post season. Kimbrel is going to get overpaid for past performance.

i figure the Sox will thank Kimbrel and Kelly for their service and move on. Eovaldi is worth overpaying a little. He can start or potentially become a closer with his velocity.

i wouldn’t be surprised or upset if the Sox started next season with Barnes or Brasier as the closer. Then, if it doesn’t work out pick up a closer in July via trade. There’s usually someone good available as a rental.

RJM - could be if the Mets perform at their usual level you might grab Diaz of them if the Sox end up in a race to 115 wins with the Yanks.

I can see Harper to the Cubs. Cubs trade Schwebs to an AL team for some pitching 

luv baseball posted:

RJM - could be if the Mets perform at their usual level you might grab Diaz of them if the Sox end up in a race to 115 wins with the Yanks.

The Sox didn’t have the resources to compete with the Mets in a trade. Diaz has four more years before free agency. He will never be cheap enough for the Sox. 

I expect the Sox to go after Robertson now with Barnes and Brasier the short term fall back position. Robertson is from RI. He said he would like to play close to home. Given his age he could probably be signed for a two or three year deal at a reasonable rate.

Cubs payroll situation is a mess. I don't think they can take on Harper without finding someone to eat some of Heyward's contract.

I hope the Angels get Harper.  An outfield of Trout/Harper/Ohtani would be one for the ages.

For the record won't be sorry to see Kimbrell go, but would like the Sox to bring Kelly back (and Evoldi).

I'd love to see Harper stay with the Nationals, but from what I read a few months ago they put an offer to him, but to date he has not accepted the offer.  At least that my understanding. 

I could see Machado ending up in pinstripes but as an Oriole fan I would not want to see that.

I don't get it - IMO more flash and less substance.  Harper has flashes of brilliance, thinks very highly of himself, but his down periods are really down. Machado has a ton of talent, but once your heart and hustle are questioned publicly by teammates during the playoffs it's hard to "unsee" that by others. BTW: During the series run, there were a couple of times I saw Orioles branded merch under his Dodger uni. Additionally, his "inadvertent steps" on *two* players feet doesn't go unnoticed. In the long run, I think Harper will get his or shall I say his agent will make a big enough stank that some baseball team will open their wallet to avoid having MLB being placed under the collusion cloud. I don't see Machado getting long term deal from Yanks. They like their shortstop. Unlike ARod - moving Machado to 3B when Gregorius returns is less likely as for some reason ;-) they like Adujar. If NYY offers him - he may once again have to earn his next deal.  If the Dodgers offer him they do so as an insurance policy for Seager, but they too may try a short term deal. Take two top money providers out plus someone paying Harper before him and I would think Machado's options are limited.  Maybe it's just me though.

They will both get paid. Despite any and all mentioned shortcomings they are HOF type players on their current tracks..

Cubs and Angels are not in spending mode, from what I've read.  In the media the Phillies seem certain to land at least one.   NYY are also in on both as of now.  Wash has not given up on Harper yet.  They have not been in the media much but I still think SF will make a run at Harper and LAD will make a run at Machado.  I think the Cardinals are more likely for Harper.  They  have money and they want to get back to being relevant. I know nothing about the Brewers' financial health, but they are team with a small payroll that is so close.  I wonder if they might jump in - though chasing a top arm is more likely.  Ditto the Braves.   And then there are the Mets.  They are apparently ready to do anything to make a splash.

Being a lifelong cardinals fan and knowing their history of not paying for top tier free agents, I don’t see them going after Harper.  I think Goldschmidt fills a bigger hole for them.  No way they can have another season of subpar play defensively and lack of offensive production at that position.  At any rate, they have a lot of questions to answer this off-season....by the way, they have a boatload of money to spend...they have to change how they’ve done things in the past and open up the wallet to be competitive.

Goldschmidt is a hell of a player and seems like a solid citizen as well.  As a SFG fan I'd be happy to see him out of the NL West. He's been kryptonite for Giants pitchers.

I agree JCG, you never hear anything bad about the guy.  They also need a 3rd baseman and bullpen help as well.  Cardinal fans are getting restless

Re: Goldschmidt

When a player passes age thirty you have to ask if stats are a trend or an aberration. Goldschmidt turned 31 this past season. 

2018: In 122 at-bats on pitches 94-plus m.p.h. Goldschmidt hit .254 (.762 OPS) with five homers and 13 RBIs.

2017: In 127 at-bats on pitches 94-plus m.p.h. Goldschmidt hit .315 (1.091 OPS) with 10 homers and 34 RBIs.

That is interesting and possibly concerning, but considering that his slash line is right at his career numbers I wouldn't panic over that.

Yes those are interesting stats...however, having him at first base where he’s very good defensively and putting him in the middle of the lineup...maybe not what he once was...is better than Carpenter who is horrendous defensively...he’s not one of my favorites as you can tell lol.

Philadelphia will get one of them or both.

What's good about Harper is that I don't think he's peaked yet. So whichever team signs him will most likely see his best years. I think he is much more mature than he was at 20 (married, less hair flips, toned down ego) and better defensively. The only position player I'd rather have locked up for 5-8 years more than Harper would be Trout. Don't forget- an 8 year contract only puts him at 34. 

3and2Fastball posted:

Philadelphia will get one of them or both.

Welp, it's a new day and with Jean Segura now a Phillie, probably the only way Machado signs is if he agrees to play 3B.

Agree - Harper to Phils starts making a lot more sense.  Yanks picking Machado up to play short and keep pace with Sox and Astros makes a ton of sense.  They cannot know for sure when Gregorius comes back and really cannot go into 2019 with a hole at SS.

If Nats lose Harper - maybe they get Machado and move Turner to OF or 2B.

Seattle fire sale has the wheel moving for sure.  Remaking the NL East at least.

2019OF posted:

Cubs payroll situation is a mess. I don't think they can take on Harper without finding someone to eat some of Heyward's contract.

As a Braves Fan, I was blown away when they signed Heyward to that contract.  Any Braves fan could have told you his swing was hot garbage.  He is an absolute beast of a man, and he hits like 8 homers a year...

PABaseball posted:

What's good about Harper is that I don't think he's peaked yet. So whichever team signs him will most likely see his best years. I think he is much more mature than he was at 20 (married, less hair flips, toned down ego) and better defensively. The only position player I'd rather have locked up for 5-8 years more than Harper would be Trout. Don't forget- an 8 year contract only puts him at 34. 

Acuna

rynoattack posted:

2019OF posted:

Cubs payroll situation is a mess. I don't think they can take on Harper without finding someone to eat some of Heyward's contract.

As a Braves Fan, I was blown away when they signed Heyward to that contract.  Any Braves fan could have told you his swing was hot garbage.  He is an absolute beast of a man, and he hits like 8 homers a year...

Those rollover grounders to the 2nd baseman game after game were infuriating.  

JCG posted:

3and2Fastball posted:

Philadelphia will get one of them or both.

Welp, it's a new day and with Jean Segura now a Phillie, probably the only way Machado signs is if he agrees to play 3B.

Maybe.  Segura can play 2B, too

RJM posted:

I figure Machado and Harper get 8/300M contracts.

I’m curious to see how much teams overpay for players not worth the money. Eovaldi and Kelly overperformed in the post season. Kimbrel is going to get overpaid for past performance.

i figure the Sox will thank Kimbrel and Kelly for their service and move on. Eovaldi is worth overpaying a little. He can start or potentially become a closer with his velocity.

i wouldn’t be surprised or upset if the Sox started next season with Barnes or Brasier as the closer. Then, if it doesn’t work out pick up a closer in July via trade. There’s usually someone good available as a rental.

I don't think teams do it as much anymore, they now all do projections and aging curves.

Tim Turner posted:

Being a lifelong cardinals fan and knowing their history of not paying for top tier free agents, I don’t see them going after Harper.  I think Goldschmidt fills a bigger hole for them.  No way they can have another season of subpar play defensively and lack of offensive production at that position.  At any rate, they have a lot of questions to answer this off-season....by the way, they have a boatload of money to spend...they have to change how they’ve done things in the past and open up the wallet to be competitive.

Wouldn't that be a pretty big defensive downgrade due to carp being pretty bad at second and third base?

I wouldn't support signing Manny to a long term big money deal. He showed his true colors last fall and they aren't going to get better with a new deal.

Dominik85 posted:

Tim Turner posted:

Being a lifelong cardinals fan and knowing their history of not paying for top tier free agents, I don’t see them going after Harper.  I think Goldschmidt fills a bigger hole for them.  No way they can have another season of subpar play defensively and lack of offensive production at that position.  At any rate, they have a lot of questions to answer this off-season....by the way, they have a boatload of money to spend...they have to change how they’ve done things in the past and open up the wallet to be competitive.

Wouldn't that be a pretty big defensive downgrade due to carp being pretty bad at second and third base

That’s the problem with carpenter....among others....he’s bad defensively.  Put him at third and he just can’t throw..no arm at all.  You can’t hide him anywhere.  A lot of people I talk to here in St. Louis want him gone and I agree.  He’s got to go

Tim Turner posted:

That’s the problem with carpenter....among others....he’s bad defensively.  Put him at third and he just can’t throw..no arm at all.  You can’t hide him anywhere.  A lot of people I talk to here in St. Louis want him gone and I agree.  He’s got to go

Just put him at first. He just put up a 138 wrc+ and 5 war last season. There is nothing to fix there.

Dominik85 posted:

RJM posted:

I figure Machado and Harper get 8/300M contracts.

I’m curious to see how much teams overpay for players not worth the money. Eovaldi and Kelly overperformed in the post season. Kimbrel is going to get overpaid for past performance.

i figure the Sox will thank Kimbrel and Kelly for their service and move on. Eovaldi is worth overpaying a little. He can start or potentially become a closer with his velocity.

i wouldn’t be surprised or upset if the Sox started next season with Barnes or Brasier as the closer. Then, if it doesn’t work out pick up a closer in July via trade. There’s usually someone good available as a rental.

I don't think teams do it as much anymore, they now all do projections and aging curves.

It’s occurred every year since free agency started. It’s not about ability. It’s about supply and demand. Some management teams are desperate. They’re willing to screw up five years financially for the benefit of one or two years.

I’d like to see the cardinals throw their hat in the ring for Kimbrel....but they probably won’t.

Tim Turner posted:

I’d like to see the cardinals throw their hat in the ring for Kimbrel....but they probably won’t.

Based on this past season demand the Cardinals provide free Maalox for their fans. 

RJM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

RJM posted:

I figure Machado and Harper get 8/300M contracts.

I’m curious to see how much teams overpay for players not worth the money. Eovaldi and Kelly overperformed in the post season. Kimbrel is going to get overpaid for past performance.

i figure the Sox will thank Kimbrel and Kelly for their service and move on. Eovaldi is worth overpaying a little. He can start or potentially become a closer with his velocity.

i wouldn’t be surprised or upset if the Sox started next season with Barnes or Brasier as the closer. Then, if it doesn’t work out pick up a closer in July via trade. There’s usually someone good available as a rental.

I don't think teams do it as much anymore, they now all do projections and aging curves.

It’s occurred every year since free agency started. It’s not about ability. It’s about supply and demand. Some management teams are desperate. They’re willing to screw up five years financially for the benefit of one or two years.

@NYMets

RJM posted:

Tim Turner posted:

I’d like to see the cardinals throw their hat in the ring for Kimbrel....but they probably won’t.

Based on this past season demand the Cardinals provide free Maalox for their fans. 

You’re not kidding RJM....extremely frustrating...the natives are getting restless around here!

Corbin signing with the Nationals is interesting.  NL East is looking competitive

The was a string out here about 4 years ago when Jeff Luhnow left the Cards for the Astros and was spied on by the Cardinals in what might have been the dirtiest bit of cheating in baseball history.  At the time the Astros had been  terrible for years and the Cards riding high.  A number of Card supporters wondered why they would bother spying on such a mess of an organization.

All these years latter it would seem the Cards may have let one of the brighter baseball minds get away.  That coupled with the Cubs ascending while they have declined - the teeth seem to be coming out.  I think they see an increasingly mediocre organization that had been run very well for 30 years and are worried about it. 

They have never really been on the short end of the Cubs but they have been for 4 years now.  That looks like something that becomes more permanent and it may be that sense is starting to seep into the fanbase.  Cubs have more money and with Epstein may finally be the better organization.  If Cards suddenly become a 75 to 82 win organization for any length of time - it could become a real problem. 

It would represent the biggest change in baseball dynamics since the Red Sox replaced the Yankees and Braves as baseballs best organization 15 years ago. 

IMO it has already happened and baseball has entered the phase where NYY/Bos/Cubs/Dodgers will be permanent fixtures in the playoffs for 10 or more years.  Places like STL/SF/CLE/DET that have been competitive need to be very careful not to fall behind.  I think they have fallen off the pace and if it doesn't get fixed soon they may be mediocre for some time.  Think Seattle - sort of competitive but no threat.  

That is why where Harper and Machado end up may be so important.   Machado to Yanks and Harper to Cubs or Dodgers would only cement my point of view.

Tim Turner posted:

RJM posted:

Tim Turner posted:

I’d like to see the cardinals throw their hat in the ring for Kimbrel....but they probably won’t.

Based on this past season demand the Cardinals provide free Maalox for their fans. 

You’re not kidding RJM....extremely frustrating...the natives are getting restless around here!

I’m referring to Kimbrel. He’s Maalox Man. He made Mitch Williams look like a pitcher who works the corners of the plate. His control and command was off this year. His walk ratio shot up. But the trend to watch is his velocity was down 2 mph. He turned 30. 

Knowing some foolish team will give Kimbrel a Chapman like contract (5/86M) there aren’t many Red Sox fans who want him around. Anything more than 3/45M is too much for him.

I agree with you that some team will offer him a crazy amount of money, but trust me, it won’t be the Cardinals, which in this instance is a smart move on their part.  With that being said, they do need someone to close out games.  Jordan Hicks, who is a very good young pitcher can handle the 8th inning but we are missing the closer....Kimbrel could fill that spot, but, like you said, we can’t overpay for him.

Just heard the cardinals got Goldschmidt for Carson Kelly and Luke Weaver.