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I was out biking today when I came upon a high school game. I dropped the bike, leaned on the fence down the line and started watching. I didn't know anything about either team except they usually have competitive programs.

Both pitchers had decent high school velocity. I would guess 83-85. I asked the guy next to me if anyone on the field was a prospect to play college ball. He informed me one team's pitcher was in the mid 80's. The other hits 90. So obviously my next two questions are what year are they followed by where are they committed. The kid "throwing" 90 is a senior. The guy didn't know where he's committed. He asked the kid's mother. 

The kid will be attending a mediocre D2 and has to walk on. I didn't go where I could have gone next with the conversation. I thought, "90 my ass!" More like 83" would have been a bit harsh.

It's amazing how many people don't have a clue about velocity and think they do. Plus from my experience everyone knows where the high school kid throwing 90 is committed.

** The dream is free. Work ethic sold separately. **

Last edited by RJM
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When my son was in the 8th grade he threw low 70's at best. After a few games where he was obviously throwing harder than kids supposedly throwing high 70's he was all of a sudden throwing 80+. At first I tried to tell people he's not the other kids just don't throw as hard as people believe. I finally got tired of and said I guess so hahaha. I about had a stroke when two opposing coaches called me and asked if my son was really throwing 80+. I told both of them no, but one didn't believe me after seeing him vs his pitcher who he thought threw 80. Heck we even broke out the gun to see if my son had some kind of unnoticed increase. Nope 71 was best he got that day. 

So now this year in HS heck he's faster must be mid 80's right. Nope sorry 77. Then we played a team with a pitcher that threw legit 85. The next day instead of believing me that my kid doesn't throw that hard it was did you see that pitcher throwing over 90 against us. People are nuts. 

#1 Assistant Coach posted:

I watch a good amount of varsity baseball in a 3A conference (HS populations of about 1200 kids per school).

From my experience (with radar gun), it is rare to see a varsity HS pitcher who even touches 80.  Average varsity top velo in our conference is 74 - 78. 

I coached through 16u. The entire staff was in the 80s. I know what 80+ looks like. It's why I asked who were the prospects. I figured the pitchers were at least two of them.

playball2011 posted:

Is your comment because u think it only looks like 83 or fact that kid throwing 90 would not be going to mediocre D2?  Maybe this parent isn't  in the loop about this kid and where he's going to school. 

I knew it wasn't 90. A high school pitcher throwing 90 is typically overwhelming most of the lineup. His coach is a former D1 player. He knows the ropes. He has connections. Two of the top D3's in the country are within 30 miles. They have to know about him.

The only answer I could come up with is the academics at the college he selected is more important than baseball. If he wants to be an accountant it's one of the top colleges in the east. But this strays from the original point of parents thinking a kid throws 90 because he's throwing harder than others.

My take on the subject is in line with yours, RJM.  Most HS baseball players and spectators have not seen 90+ (again, most).  But when you do, you will know it.  The stands will be full of parents, mouth agape, quietly saying to themselves "oh shit".  The dugout of the opposing team will look the same.  Most of us see a mid to low 80s pitcher and we think to ourselves 'that could be 88-90...'  But when you see it at a high school game and you're 15 feet from the plate, behind the backstop, there is absolutely no doubt at all. 

BBALL ... I finally convinced the dad of one of the high school players to watch one of my son's summer scout league games. For years he heard others rip on me I thought my kid was too good to play with heir kids in community ball. I kept telling him the level of competition my son plays at keeps him from getting too comfortable. My son was the high school team and one of the conference studs. I told him at the scout league games he's just another player. 

The dad watched in shock for two and a half hours. He watched a parade of pitchers throwing 87-90. He was shocked how fast every hitter went down the line to first. And, "Damn! Do these kids hit the ball hard!"

When the kids were younger many parents were very deluded. I told a few friends the players and parents are going to be in for a shock when they cross the county line to find out it's a big, bad world of competition out there.

Go44dad posted:

Somehow I knew this thread would swing around to how good your offspring play.  At least you are consistent.

Yes, I was bragging. Relative to college prospects he was a face in the crowd. Hey everybody. Look out there that's my kid. He's not any better than your kid. Take notice.

It was a reference point relative to my response to BBALL. Since you want to go for personal attacks here's one for you. GFY. 

Hint: starts with Go.

For some reason I can't add to my previous post to BBALL. Here's the add ..

Another thing about my original post is I'm in Maine visiting my mother. If you see 90 in Maine your eyes bug out and you spit out, "Holy shite! Who the hell is that!"

In 18-30yo generation of players I know of two high school kids from Maine who hit 90. They both had about a month in the majors. One was a top draft choice. He had a lot of arm problems. No one picked up the other one when he was released at 28.

When Mark Rogers' (the high draft choice, Brewers) team faced Ryan Flaherty's (Vanderbilt, Orioles) and Ryan Reid's (the other 90s pitcher, JMU, Pirates) team played for the state championship they sold out Hadlock Field (Seadogs 7,400) in advance.

#1 Assistant Coach posted:

I watch a good amount of varsity baseball in a 3A conference (HS populations of about 1200 kids per school).

From my experience (with radar gun), it is rare to see a varsity HS pitcher who even touches 80.  Average varsity top velo in our conference is 74 - 78. 

I found the same thing over the last 3 years with my Stalker.  Very enlightening.  

RJM posted:
Go44dad posted:

Somehow I knew this thread would swing around to how good your offspring play.  At least you are consistent.

Yes, I was bragging. Relative to college prospects he was a face in the crowd. Hey everybody. Look out there that's my kid. He's not any better than your kid. Take notice.

It was a reference point relative to my response to BBALL. Since you want to go for personal attacks here's one for you. GFY. 

Hint: starts with Go.

Let me guess:  GFY = Go Find Yourself!  

My son has faced one kid who was clocked at 94 by PG. It was a fall baseball gamex so I don't think the kid was throwing 90 at that time. Maybe 88. But, you could tell he was different and harder throwing than your average HS player. Most kids either didn't even swing the bat or swung after it was already in the glove. The batter reactions to watching him warm up and throw said it all.

One thing I learned from all the velocity craziness the last two years is to not be too hard on dads who give inflated numbers. In my case I knew what my son was throwing because I own a stalker. If I didn't and just listened to the people around me, including supposed "baseball people", I'd be walking around thinking my kid throws 7-10 mph harder than he does. So I can see how dads get misinformed really quick. 

The story makes sense given the location. And typically I suppose a 90+ pitcher will toy with HS hitters. But, believe it or not, there are some high school batters who can hit 90+.

There's a local kid who was described recently by ESPN (i.e., not a Dad) this Spring as throwing "94-96" and on a different occasion this Spring as throwing "91-96." He's projected to eventually be a first-rounder. Here are his five league starts so far -- one absolutely dominant, one good, one poor, two fairly decent. He's obviously very good -- I'm just surprised that HS hitters don't all have the reaction described by KANDKFUNK, above.

 IP#PS%HRERKBBHR
 6.080.662521710
 IP#PS%HRERKBBHR
 6.082.707532801
 IP#PS%HRERKBBHR
 7.0103.7281001520
 IP#PS%HRERKBBHR
 7.098.704743921
 IP#PS%HRERKBBHR
 4.277.649666221

Slightly off topic question: anyone know if Pocket Radar Ball Coach readings are accurate when measure from behind the fence? Or is it always lower than real speed?

I have a pocket radar and whenever I check pitcher's speed, it's always much lower than what their parents think they are. E.g. a big pitcher told everyone he throws 84, but the fastest I every got was 78. Another time our opposing team pitcher looks really fast, one of our parent said "at least 80+", but the radar reading is 76.

I used to think that the pocket radar must be 5mph off. Now I'm confused. Maybe the radar is correct and the parents are overstating the velocity?

Back in 2012, we had a team in our league with a kid that touched 93, sat 90 (high draft pick), another kid sat 86-88 and another that touched 86 but had injury issues.  We rarely have a scout at our games but there were always at least twenty when this kid threw.  The whole week prior to playing them each time, we had coaches throw hard from 45' to prepare our hitters.  We managed to sweep them (including a 4-1 win against the top guy) and win league that year.   I don't think we've had a single P sniff 88 in our entire league since. 

The neighboring league this year has a couple young guys, one freshman touches 90 and a soph is very close.   Gonna be lot's of Tilley hats at those games. 

Gotta admit, had I not bit the bullet and purchased a Stalker 2 a few years back I too would be one of those dads.  To my son's chagrin, "The gun doesn't lie," and nor does this dad. 

BUT, if I didn't have the gun I'd believe what everyone else says when they see son throw a FB.  He is tall with some length to him so ball is being released possibly a foot closer to home plate than your 5-10 pitcher.  And he has fast arm speed.  For a 6-7 guy he appears to have the arm speed of an athletic 6-footer.  And again because his release point is a foot closer to home than many pitchers the time from release to the pop of the glove seems quicker.  Teammates are always amazed that he is "only" throwing 82-84.  I've heard a D-1 coach gush about his velo when he watched him pitch once (no gun in hand on said coach btw), even had one very experienced travel/showcase coach from a very well known showcase outfit throw out a velo my son had NEVER touched in his life.

Sadly...........Perception is not reality.

#1 Assistant Coach posted:

Gotta admit, had I not bit the bullet and purchased a Stalker 2 a few years back I too would be one of those dads.  To my son's chagrin, "The gun doesn't lie," and nor does this dad. 

BUT, if I didn't have the gun I'd believe what everyone else says when they see son throw a FB.  He is tall with some length to him so ball is being released possibly a foot closer to home plate than your 5-10 pitcher.  And he has fast arm speed.  For a 6-7 guy he appears to have the arm speed of an athletic 6-footer.  And again because his release point is a foot closer to home than many pitchers the time from release to the pop of the glove seems quicker.  Teammates are always amazed that he is "only" throwing 82-84.  I've heard a D-1 coach gush about his velo when he watched him pitch once (no gun in hand on said coach btw), even had one very experienced travel/showcase coach from a very well known showcase outfit throw out a velo my son had NEVER touched in his life.

Sadly...........Perception is not reality.

Because he is releasing the ball closer to the plate his effective velocity might be close to 90 mph 

Not going to post about 2016 and what others say he throws but have a funny story.Frosh yr. we go to tourney in anotherb state.2016 TB. team was half way thru thier 2nd yr. playing on 60/90 fields.The warm up at tourney was away from field of play.It wasn't until the kids/us walked to field to begin things that I/parents noticed the mound was at 54 ft. The other team lived alot closer to tourney than us.Thier side of stands was pretty full and loud.Right down to the cow bells which I don't typically see at BB games.Lead off guy steps up to box for 1st pitch.They fans are really letting out the enthusiasm for the 1st hitter.2016 winds up and throws 1st pitch.The sound that came from catchers mitt sounded like some in the woods with a rifle.You could have heard a pin drop from others sideline.Didn't hear another cow bell until the 3rd inning whe one of the kids hit a foul ball.

Much is said about velocity on here and yes it does get some attention in HS. Other threads talk about arm injuries with kids throwing so hard, so young. Keep in mind college hitters will hammer the 90 MPH fastball. Won't be so easy to throw it past the starting batters. It's the MOVEMENT that makes a difference and if there is an effective offspeed with it.

Bogeyorpar posted:

Slightly off topic question: anyone know if Pocket Radar Ball Coach readings are accurate when measure from behind the fence? Or is it always lower than real speed?

I have a pocket radar and whenever I check pitcher's speed, it's always much lower than what their parents think they are. E.g. a big pitcher told everyone he throws 84, but the fastest I every got was 78. Another time our opposing team pitcher looks really fast, one of our parent said "at least 80+", but the radar reading is 76.

I used to think that the pocket radar must be 5mph off. Now I'm confused. Maybe the radar is correct and the parents are overstating the velocity?

I think that Pocket Radar is pretty accurate from behind the fence.  Son went to a pre-season tryout/showcase for his travel team and go the benefit of several stalker readings that were only a couple of MPH below what son was throwing in April.  (He got a little bigger and stronger between January or February when the event was held and April.)  Readings do depend, however, on how far back the backstop is.  PRs have a limited range.

RJM posted:
playball2011 posted:

Is your comment because u think it only looks like 83 or fact that kid throwing 90 would not be going to mediocre D2?  Maybe this parent isn't  in the loop about this kid and where he's going to school. 

I knew it wasn't 90. A high school pitcher throwing 90 is typically overwhelming most of the lineup. His coach is a former D1 player. He knows the ropes. He has connections. Two of the top D3's in the country are within 30 miles. They have to know about him.

The only answer I could come up with is the academics at the college he selected is more important than baseball. If he wants to be an accountant it's one of the top colleges in the east. But this strays from the original point of parents thinking a kid throws 90 because he's throwing harder than others.

Parents want to believe their kid is throwing a crazy number.  When you get to a venue that actually measures velo the parents are usually shocked.  Most are shocked that it isn't higher, occasionally some are shocked that it is so high.  This is why I have zero problem putting the radar gun on players.  Knowing is better than guessing wrong. 

How people don't know what their kid is throwing by the time they get into high school is baffling.  PG has events for kids 9u and up and even UA Baseball Factory has thrown their hat in the ring for 11-14u "national tryouts/evaluations".  If parents want to know there are ways, I worry about the parents who "know" without actually seeing any data.

CaCO3Girl posted:
RJM posted:
playball2011 posted:

Is your comment because u think it only looks like 83 or fact that kid throwing 90 would not be going to mediocre D2?  Maybe this parent isn't  in the loop about this kid and where he's going to school. 

I knew it wasn't 90. A high school pitcher throwing 90 is typically overwhelming most of the lineup. His coach is a former D1 player. He knows the ropes. He has connections. Two of the top D3's in the country are within 30 miles. They have to know about him.

The only answer I could come up with is the academics at the college he selected is more important than baseball. If he wants to be an accountant it's one of the top colleges in the east. But this strays from the original point of parents thinking a kid throws 90 because he's throwing harder than others.

Parents want to believe their kid is throwing a crazy number.  When you get to a venue that actually measures velo the parents are usually shocked.  Most are shocked that it isn't higher, occasionally some are shocked that it is so high.  This is why I have zero problem putting the radar gun on players.  Knowing is better than guessing wrong. 

How people don't know what their kid is throwing by the time they get into high school is baffling.  PG has events for kids 9u and up and even UA Baseball Factory has thrown their hat in the ring for 11-14u "national tryouts/evaluations".  If parents want to know there are ways, I worry about the parents who "know" without actually seeing any data.

I agree to some extent.  My only concern / disagreement is putting a radar gun on a kid that hasn't participated in varsity level competition.  The radar gun does funny things to kids and less knowledgable parents.  They think their son throw 70 but then discover it's only 64?  Well that must be wrong or the kid had an off day, just throw harder.  Next thing you know, the kid spends the next few weeks thinking he needs to throw harder, control becomes and issue, mechanics become an issue, so on and so forth.  I just don't see the need or benefit from putting a radar gun on a 13u pitcher.  What do you get from that data? What is the benefit or perceived benefit?  I'll be the first to admit that I had my sons velocity checked a month prior to his 15th birthday / Jan freshman year (74 across the infield and 76 off the mound).  Guess who cared about those numbers?  Nobody.  Guess what it made him think about the rest of his freshman season?  Anyhow, the numbers will matter when someone other than mom and dad want to know what the numbers are.  Until then, the numbers are pretty much useless. 

I appreciate your thoughts and concerns 2016.  Let me add a another side though.

 

I have gunned my son since he was 8 or 9 in some shape or fashion.  It helped to know which mechanical adjustments worked best.  Did he try to throw his hardest? Yes. But that's exactly what I wanted him to do.   Nyman will tell you, to get velocity, one must throw with intent.  It also provides interesting benchmarks and comparisons .   If a smaller kid is able to throw close to or faster than a larger kid, it is possible, but certainly not fool proof, to get a general idea about raw pitching skills. Then one kind of projects a bit based on potential/expected growth.  PG  has a new feature that tells a pitcher's percentile for fastball velocity.  Great for getting SOME benchmarks, but even that comes with variables.  

I have a pocket radar ball coach and I've compared it to my old Jugs gun and a Stalker.  All three guns were within 1 mph of each other in just about every pitch and most of the time they give the same reading.  

We faced a 14u kid touching 90 yesterday.  I told the tourney director he needed to watch our game to see this kid throw. He looked at me like I was an idiot when I said he'd been clocked at 92. After the first inning he couldn't believe what he was seeing.  I was just glad all of our kids survived.  Luckily the kid could pitch. 

bballdad2016 posted:

I just don't see the need or benefit from putting a radar gun on a 13u pitcher.  What do you get from that data? What is the benefit or perceived benefit? 

We gun all the kids in our program every August (start of school year), December (end of 1st semester) and May (end of season). For us it's just a good baseline to see how development is coming, if what we're doing is working or if we need to make changes, just general information. 

Same time periods we also do long distance throw and 60 times and 20 times along with weightroom stuff for the same reasons.

 

I didn't care what my son threw until soph year of high school. I didn't care what a 5' LLer threw. Or a 5'4" 14u player. Or a 5'11", 135 freshman. When he hit 6', 160 I wanted to know.

During those years I had a close idea what he threw. It just didn't matter. I only cared about form, throwing strikes and getting hitters out. Plus there was always some dad with a gun telling me. 

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