dad4boys...
The differences in our stats and his are so different we even wonder if the bat girl/trainer/official scorer even got the players correct. My son usually either has a definite hit or he definitely grounds or flies out. Any potentially scored errors (glove on the ball) we scored as such...
Let me know what your coach says and how receptive he was!
dad4boys,
I thought we all knew seniors make less errors than juniors.
I thought we all knew seniors make less errors than juniors.
a very good question & a great topic for this time of year
also great input from those with HS behind them ...
as a longtime lurker I'll offer a few more bits of truth
001) those with it behind them KNOW of what they speak
002) most of them did not always realize how little HS stats meant, some were in fact asking the very same question several years ago
003) HS stats are for the newspapers & parents
the hs coaches in our area have a pretty good system ...
*there is some wiggle-room depending on the player
seniors generally hit .450 to .500+
juniors .400 to .450
soph .350 to .400
pitching ... most all runs are unearned, with the error charged to the lowest man in the pecking order nearest the play
passed ball/wild pitch ... same pecking order deal
I've seen batting averages rise 50 pts in a 7 day period in which all games were rained out
interesting scoring comments by beenthere, who has played pro ball & apparently never realized there are actual "scoring rules", but "he" scores an ERROR because the ball was not hit hard enough, wow ... brutal ... I'll take the hs girl
also great input from those with HS behind them ...
as a longtime lurker I'll offer a few more bits of truth
001) those with it behind them KNOW of what they speak
002) most of them did not always realize how little HS stats meant, some were in fact asking the very same question several years ago
003) HS stats are for the newspapers & parents
the hs coaches in our area have a pretty good system ...
*there is some wiggle-room depending on the player
seniors generally hit .450 to .500+
juniors .400 to .450
soph .350 to .400
pitching ... most all runs are unearned, with the error charged to the lowest man in the pecking order nearest the play
passed ball/wild pitch ... same pecking order deal
I've seen batting averages rise 50 pts in a 7 day period in which all games were rained out
interesting scoring comments by beenthere, who has played pro ball & apparently never realized there are actual "scoring rules", but "he" scores an ERROR because the ball was not hit hard enough, wow ... brutal ... I'll take the hs girl
quote:Originally posted by BeenthereIL:
mom...While stats might not be important to some coaches, they likely will not be interested in recruiting a student who is hitting .150...that is why stats are important.
I could be wrong but incorrect stats or not a .150 batter will stand out to a coach without them ever seeing the stats.
To us at Parents the Stats might mean more and when it comes down to all "whatever selections" it very well may have an impact especially when some teams are liberal with the hits or errors as Baseballdad1228 noted in his posts. IMHO the bigger impact in regards to recruiting is performing in front of the coaches.
We had a similiar but different problem with a 16 year girl in my sons HS team dugout. Lets just say she was very well built, and liked to wear low cut tops. Keeping the players attention on the field was often difficult.
Yep... had the same problem my son's freshman year with the "trainers". Sometimes by the end of the game, she would be playing very soft toss with them, wearing their caps, and trying on their gloves! This year, we asked the coach if it would be okay if we provided the "trainers" (free of charge) a t-shirt!
The DH for an SEC team was "caught" with the 24 year old trainer his Sr year, a year ago on spring break. She got fired. His dad the athletic director and coaches got fired for covering it up.
momandcpa, Good idea! Doing all this without a "T" shirt could create some problems!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dad04, If he was a senior that would mean he was about 21-22 years old and she was 24. I personally don't see the problem. Of course I don't know all the details about where they were "caught" and by whom.
Couple of questions:
#1. Did you read this in the National Inquirer?
#2. Are you sure this wasn't in the ACC?
Fungo
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dad04, If he was a senior that would mean he was about 21-22 years old and she was 24. I personally don't see the problem. Of course I don't know all the details about where they were "caught" and by whom.
Couple of questions:
#1. Did you read this in the National Inquirer?
#2. Are you sure this wasn't in the ACC?
Fungo
Fungo...
Guess I should clarify a bit! An appropriate team colored T-shirt with our team mascot on it! Yes, the other would be VERY distracting even to the most focused baseball players!
Guess I should clarify a bit! An appropriate team colored T-shirt with our team mascot on it! Yes, the other would be VERY distracting even to the most focused baseball players!
#1. Did you read this in the National Inquirer?
#2. Are you sure this wasn't in the ACC?
Fungo
#2. Are you sure this wasn't in the ACC?
Fungo
TPM, Forgive me ------ 
Fungo
It was in the Orlando Sentinel for weeks last spring. He was a senior in High School, up the road from me. I think he was 19. He's a college freshman now.
I had no problem either, other than the general no-no of mixing business with uh....pleasure. Plenty of people objected to the high school employee/student relationship and the fact the coaches tried to cover it up when it happened on a team spring break road trip.
The principal used it to bludgeon the 25-year legend coach/dad turned AD and his staff.
I think the new trainer is some old ugly guy like me.
It was in the Orlando Sentinel for weeks last spring. He was a senior in High School, up the road from me. I think he was 19. He's a college freshman now.
I had no problem either, other than the general no-no of mixing business with uh....pleasure. Plenty of people objected to the high school employee/student relationship and the fact the coaches tried to cover it up when it happened on a team spring break road trip.
The principal used it to bludgeon the 25-year legend coach/dad turned AD and his staff.
I think the new trainer is some old ugly guy like me.
Dad04, I thought he was a senior in college .... sorry.
Nuttin to be sorry 'bout. I wasn't clear with the circumstances. The whole mess was pretty tacky though. 
quote:Originally posted by Fungo:
TPM, Forgive me ------
Forgiven!
I thought he was a senior in college also!
Thanks all, for the entertaining topic -- I can't stream the soap operas while at work. Would you believe we have a female trainer that can compute ERA? Okok, not really.
Stats are OVERATED! Parents think a whole lot more about them than college coaches! Relax--tell your son to hit the ball, don't worry about the stats. I think we have all seen kids rip the ball, only to have it caught by a great outfielder, while the next kid gets a bloop hit over the second basemen's head. STATS ARE NOT EVERYTHING!
See it,hit it and have fun.
Wow!!!! Somehow I missed all this. From the topic, I thought we had a male/female thing going and I just avoided even looking at this thread. Was I wrong. It was like the energizer bunny. It kept going, and going and going. STATS MEAN NOTHING. NO ONE LOOKS AT THEM. COLLEGES DON"T CARE. Screaming at each other.
Let me see now. OK. A high school junior hits 50 home runs in a 30 game season off of fairly medicore pitching in a Single A West Virginia High School Leage. 50 home runs. Nobody is going to bother to come look at him, right? 50 home runs. The competition is not that good. 50 home runs. Everyone knows the high school fields in West Virginia are built on mountain tops and all the fences are 250 feet or less. 50 Home runs. Kid's name is thrown in the trash, no doubt? 50 home runs. Preposterous.
On second thought, MLB {or at least the Oakland A's, The LA Dodgers, The Boston Red Sox, The Florida Marlins, and a few others} just might have their area scout show up at some games the next year to see this kid based on THAT ONE STATISTIC ALONE.
Guess no one here ever read Moneyball. Or if you did, guess you don't believe a word of it. Guess no one knows that at least one sabermetric guy is in almost every MLB front office with the assigned task of pouring over statistics from colleges and high schools and every other website they can get linked up to prepare for every MLB draft. Or if you do, guess you consider them money poorly spent.
Believe what you want to believe. For those with athletes getting messed over by their "statisticians", my advice is to try your best to get it straightened out and make it honest. There are college coaches out there that are VERY INTERESTED IN CERTAIN STATISTICS. That is what makes them want TO GO SEE A HIGH SCHOOL PLAYER IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Just my opinion, of course.
And yes. Home Run Totals for a season are a statistic. Double dare you.
TW344
Let me see now. OK. A high school junior hits 50 home runs in a 30 game season off of fairly medicore pitching in a Single A West Virginia High School Leage. 50 home runs. Nobody is going to bother to come look at him, right? 50 home runs. The competition is not that good. 50 home runs. Everyone knows the high school fields in West Virginia are built on mountain tops and all the fences are 250 feet or less. 50 Home runs. Kid's name is thrown in the trash, no doubt? 50 home runs. Preposterous.
On second thought, MLB {or at least the Oakland A's, The LA Dodgers, The Boston Red Sox, The Florida Marlins, and a few others} just might have their area scout show up at some games the next year to see this kid based on THAT ONE STATISTIC ALONE.
Guess no one here ever read Moneyball. Or if you did, guess you don't believe a word of it. Guess no one knows that at least one sabermetric guy is in almost every MLB front office with the assigned task of pouring over statistics from colleges and high schools and every other website they can get linked up to prepare for every MLB draft. Or if you do, guess you consider them money poorly spent.
Believe what you want to believe. For those with athletes getting messed over by their "statisticians", my advice is to try your best to get it straightened out and make it honest. There are college coaches out there that are VERY INTERESTED IN CERTAIN STATISTICS. That is what makes them want TO GO SEE A HIGH SCHOOL PLAYER IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Just my opinion, of course.
And yes. Home Run Totals for a season are a statistic. Double dare you.
TW344
TW34 says;
if you are trying to get attention for a player by promoting stats that are NOT LEGIT ...
you may want to keep it on the QT (quiet) on a public message board that's widely read
just a sugestion, but ...quote:A high school junior hits 50 home runs in a 30 game season off of fairly medicore pitching in a Single A West Virginia ... the high school fields in West Virginia are built on mountain tops and all the fences are 250 feet or less
if you are trying to get attention for a player by promoting stats that are NOT LEGIT ...
you may want to keep it on the QT (quiet) on a public message board that's widely read
Simple solution--have the pitcher due to pitch the next game keep score as he tracks pitches--thus you have the next pitcher deeply involved and the book should be in great shape
Aren't there any college coaches or scouts who can chime in on the importance of HS stats?
Seems to me they are far less reliable in HS than they might be at a D1 college.
Seems to me they are far less reliable in HS than they might be at a D1 college.
My son plays on one of the elite national travel teams. The coach never keeps score or book on stats. A few college coaches have asked me about my son offensive numbers this summer and I had absolutely no clue. They probably played 50 - 60 games this summer/fall. The coach has been in baseball all his life at all levels {pro coached USA team, etc.} His neglect of stats I think somes up how important they are, these kids are seen by scouts/recuiters whenever they play and that's what counts ....
Rob,
There have been several past discussions about this. Don't know how to search for them on here, but I'm sure others can find them.
High school stats are not very important. However, there are certain HS stats that mean much more than others and create interest. Batting Average is not one of those stats that mean a whole lot. That said, a top prospect who is hitting .150 in high school does cause concern!
There have been several past discussions about this. Don't know how to search for them on here, but I'm sure others can find them.
High school stats are not very important. However, there are certain HS stats that mean much more than others and create interest. Batting Average is not one of those stats that mean a whole lot. That said, a top prospect who is hitting .150 in high school does cause concern!
Chairman:
"It's a joke, son. Don't you get it? A joke. Funny, Ha, Ha" Foghorn Leghorn.
TRhit: excellent suggestion, as usual.
Rob Kremer: Why less reliable? Less important probably but not universally less reliable.
Rsct83: But you did have some college coaches ask you about your son's offensive statistics though, right? Did I understand that to be the case from what you wrote? So, even though the coach of the elite travel team does not think they are important, those college coaches must have thought they had some value or they would not have asked about them, am I right?
PGStaff: Thank you for bringing sanity and clarity to the thread in four sentences. I wish I could have said it as succintly as you have but sometimes my sarcism takes over my mind and I become this other person.
To ALL OTHERS: PGStaff's post is the best analysis of the place High School Statistics occupy in today's college recruiting that is on this thread. Since anything else I say can only detract, I have nothing more to say and I am out of here.
TW344
"It's a joke, son. Don't you get it? A joke. Funny, Ha, Ha" Foghorn Leghorn.
TRhit: excellent suggestion, as usual.
Rob Kremer: Why less reliable? Less important probably but not universally less reliable.
Rsct83: But you did have some college coaches ask you about your son's offensive statistics though, right? Did I understand that to be the case from what you wrote? So, even though the coach of the elite travel team does not think they are important, those college coaches must have thought they had some value or they would not have asked about them, am I right?
PGStaff: Thank you for bringing sanity and clarity to the thread in four sentences. I wish I could have said it as succintly as you have but sometimes my sarcism takes over my mind and I become this other person.
To ALL OTHERS: PGStaff's post is the best analysis of the place High School Statistics occupy in today's college recruiting that is on this thread. Since anything else I say can only detract, I have nothing more to say and I am out of here.
TW344
TW344
My bad, I should have elaborated a bit on the asking for stats. The request for stats was on questionnaire only. In speaking with college recruiters I have never ever been asked for either his travel or HS stats, only what events is he planning on playing in this summer and most importantly what is his GPA.
Sorry for th confusion, again my bad
My bad, I should have elaborated a bit on the asking for stats. The request for stats was on questionnaire only. In speaking with college recruiters I have never ever been asked for either his travel or HS stats, only what events is he planning on playing in this summer and most importantly what is his GPA.
Sorry for th confusion, again my bad
One more thing that is worth mentioning is that I really enjoy my son travel team coaches never keeping a book is that all of the pressure related to batting averages and earned runs are gone and kids can relax and focus on quality at bats and getting people out, not worrying about their BA's and ernie's.
A kid can hit four line drives to outfield and go 0 - 4. The reality is that as a hitter what more could you possibly do and that was a great day. But if you focus on BA you are o'fer. Another kid could hit Judy four flares and be 4 - 4, he's hitting 1000 witb zero quality at bats.
If you want to try something different try keeping track of your sons at bats by grading them quality {productive} or non-quality {non-productive} at bats. By doing this I believe you can get a better read on hitters, as this eliminates cheap hits and gives credit for hitting ground ball to right side with a man on third, etc.....
Just a thought
A kid can hit four line drives to outfield and go 0 - 4. The reality is that as a hitter what more could you possibly do and that was a great day. But if you focus on BA you are o'fer. Another kid could hit Judy four flares and be 4 - 4, he's hitting 1000 witb zero quality at bats.
If you want to try something different try keeping track of your sons at bats by grading them quality {productive} or non-quality {non-productive} at bats. By doing this I believe you can get a better read on hitters, as this eliminates cheap hits and gives credit for hitting ground ball to right side with a man on third, etc.....
Just a thought
TW,
I did mention a few pages backcthat HR and velocity (not really a stat) will get noticed.
Some things are noted by coaches and scouts, and as PG suggests (and I am in your corner that he knows what gets attention), BA is not one of them.
Most stats in HS don't always include some of the things coaches think about, on base percentages, fielding percentages, put outs, errors, attempts to steal, pick offs, etc.
JMO.
I did mention a few pages backcthat HR and velocity (not really a stat) will get noticed.
Some things are noted by coaches and scouts, and as PG suggests (and I am in your corner that he knows what gets attention), BA is not one of them.
Most stats in HS don't always include some of the things coaches think about, on base percentages, fielding percentages, put outs, errors, attempts to steal, pick offs, etc.
JMO.
TPM:
I am in total agreement with you. Another stat I know from experience some coaches are interested in is SLG %. And I agree with PG and you that BA is not looked at by most college coaches for all the reasons that have been stated here before.
I am in total agreement with you. Another stat I know from experience some coaches are interested in is SLG %. And I agree with PG and you that BA is not looked at by most college coaches for all the reasons that have been stated here before.
Rsctt83:
OK. Thanks for the clarification.
I have found this whole thread very interesting because everyone seems to have such varied and diverse experiences with college coaches and stats. I have probably talked to a dozen college coaches in enough detail to get their feeling about stats. Out of that number only two said they were not at all interested in stats. And it would be hard to persuade me that the other 10 were just humoring me because most of them made note of certain stats that I thought were important before I said anything about the way I thought. Of course, I had researched these college coaches in depth and felt that they coached teams that had individual players that possessed the tools to accomplish better than average stats in those same catagories that my son had better than average stats. Perhaps that is why my experience appears so different.
I am not sure I can completely agree with your definition of "quality at bats." A hitter with four line drives in a game, all of which are hit right at the infielder/outfielder i do not see as quality at bats because no runs were produced and he never placed himself in scoring position. Another hitter with two walks with no one on base, a perfectly executed sacrifice bunt that advanced a runner and a sac fly with a man on third and less than two out has, in my opinion had a very good day at the plate but, by your definition I assume would have had no quality at bats. And, according to conventional thinking as I am beginning to learn, the young man who lined out four times will have a much better chance to be considered a "blue chipper" than the other hitter. That is probably where we should draw the line. Productive at bats v. Quality at bats. Then we can agree. OK?
TW344
OK. Thanks for the clarification.
I have found this whole thread very interesting because everyone seems to have such varied and diverse experiences with college coaches and stats. I have probably talked to a dozen college coaches in enough detail to get their feeling about stats. Out of that number only two said they were not at all interested in stats. And it would be hard to persuade me that the other 10 were just humoring me because most of them made note of certain stats that I thought were important before I said anything about the way I thought. Of course, I had researched these college coaches in depth and felt that they coached teams that had individual players that possessed the tools to accomplish better than average stats in those same catagories that my son had better than average stats. Perhaps that is why my experience appears so different.
I am not sure I can completely agree with your definition of "quality at bats." A hitter with four line drives in a game, all of which are hit right at the infielder/outfielder i do not see as quality at bats because no runs were produced and he never placed himself in scoring position. Another hitter with two walks with no one on base, a perfectly executed sacrifice bunt that advanced a runner and a sac fly with a man on third and less than two out has, in my opinion had a very good day at the plate but, by your definition I assume would have had no quality at bats. And, according to conventional thinking as I am beginning to learn, the young man who lined out four times will have a much better chance to be considered a "blue chipper" than the other hitter. That is probably where we should draw the line. Productive at bats v. Quality at bats. Then we can agree. OK?
TW344
TW344:
There is not a major league organization that applies "Moneyball" principles to high schools. And, even with home runs, at the high school level, especially, it is a ridiculous measure. I've seen guys in the big schools here in AZ and Cali and Texas who hit maybe five a year in their ballparks with fences at just under or over 400 feet who are far, far better power hitters than guys with 20 or more on fields with fences at 350 or less and against pitching that would not even make the team in places with stronger competition. (and by the way, there are far more weak high school programs than strong programs and the weaker the competition for a truly talented player, the better the stats will look in most cases). I'm sure the situation is the same across the nation.
And those are additional reasons why college coaches -- at least those with programs in the power conferences -- pay so little attention to high school stats. And, no, I'm not talking about kids who hit .150 because those kids are not competitive at higher levels to begin with. But I am talking about plenty of guys who hit below .300. And, by the way, I have seen lots of guys over .400 in certain leagues in certain areas who could not come close to .300 in the baseball hotbeds, wherever they might be located across the country.
Finally, if you hit the ball hard and fair, it is a quality at bat and all you can control as a hitter. I would be happy with that anytime and anyday regardless of the result. So would any coach I know who is worth his salt -- and that would be at any level.
There is not a major league organization that applies "Moneyball" principles to high schools. And, even with home runs, at the high school level, especially, it is a ridiculous measure. I've seen guys in the big schools here in AZ and Cali and Texas who hit maybe five a year in their ballparks with fences at just under or over 400 feet who are far, far better power hitters than guys with 20 or more on fields with fences at 350 or less and against pitching that would not even make the team in places with stronger competition. (and by the way, there are far more weak high school programs than strong programs and the weaker the competition for a truly talented player, the better the stats will look in most cases). I'm sure the situation is the same across the nation.
And those are additional reasons why college coaches -- at least those with programs in the power conferences -- pay so little attention to high school stats. And, no, I'm not talking about kids who hit .150 because those kids are not competitive at higher levels to begin with. But I am talking about plenty of guys who hit below .300. And, by the way, I have seen lots of guys over .400 in certain leagues in certain areas who could not come close to .300 in the baseball hotbeds, wherever they might be located across the country.
Finally, if you hit the ball hard and fair, it is a quality at bat and all you can control as a hitter. I would be happy with that anytime and anyday regardless of the result. So would any coach I know who is worth his salt -- and that would be at any level.
TRHit
That would be great, But on my son's HS team if there not pitching there playing in the Field.
Politically correct statement: Help-- Inexperienced HS Person
Keeping Stats!
quote:Simple solution--have the pitcher due to pitch the next game keep score as he tracks pitches--thus you have the next pitcher deeply involved and the book should be in great shape
That would be great, But on my son's HS team if there not pitching there playing in the Field.
Politically correct statement: Help-- Inexperienced HS Person
Keeping Stats!
TW3, (any relation to BW3? 
)
your views on the importance of hs stats though kinda logical, are outdated by about 15 yrs.
back then "published" or "word of mouth" stats were just about the ONLY thing that could get a player noticed.
that said, many do share your views, even some hs coaches, who still refuse to believe in the value of the showcase setting ... some have been "stunned" when their star w/stats who got all the local press was passed over for an "unknown" with tools & potential
and yes, ripping the ball hard at someone IS a quality at bat and will get the player noticed
specializing in winning hs games with duck snorts doesn't necessarily mean much
(except to the hs & parents)
IF hs stats WERE important, today's showcases would be a waste of time & NO coaches &
NO scouts would bother attending, as those same prospects could be evaluated at their kitchen table on a laptop by sorting thru a "hs stat database" while sipping a cup o java jamming to Springstien
and would you care to elaborate on what kind of college coaches you were getting feedback from ... because a DIII with FEW resources may have quite a different view than a major or
mid-major DI WITH resources -
no dis intended, but there is not even a "mid major" DI basball power anywhere near you
(sorry jemaz)
)your views on the importance of hs stats though kinda logical, are outdated by about 15 yrs.
back then "published" or "word of mouth" stats were just about the ONLY thing that could get a player noticed.
that said, many do share your views, even some hs coaches, who still refuse to believe in the value of the showcase setting ... some have been "stunned" when their star w/stats who got all the local press was passed over for an "unknown" with tools & potential
and yes, ripping the ball hard at someone IS a quality at bat and will get the player noticed
specializing in winning hs games with duck snorts doesn't necessarily mean much
(except to the hs & parents)
IF hs stats WERE important, today's showcases would be a waste of time & NO coaches &
NO scouts would bother attending, as those same prospects could be evaluated at their kitchen table on a laptop by sorting thru a "hs stat database" while sipping a cup o java jamming to Springstien
and would you care to elaborate on what kind of college coaches you were getting feedback from ... because a DIII with FEW resources may have quite a different view than a major or
mid-major DI WITH resources -
no dis intended, but there is not even a "mid major" DI basball power anywhere near you
(sorry jemaz)
Perhaps it’s due to what we do these days, but the older I get the more obvious the following is….
You can not have too much information! Everyone in scouting and recruiting understands the problem with placing too much value on high school or youth stats. However, that does not mean that these stats are totally worthless! They are still a small part of the overall picture. Not the most important part, but information none the less.
Yes there are many variables that make stats unreliable by themselves. Yes, there can be outstanding prospects with not so outstanding stats. Yes, there can be outstanding stats on not so outstanding prospects.
Here are a couple stats that would not create lots of interest…
Pitchers: W-L, ERA, etc
Position players: Batting Average, On base %, etc
Here are some stats that should create interest:
Pitchers: Strike outs per inning, K/BB ratio
Position players: HRs do create interest.
True that HRs could be due to small field and poor competition, but if the total is abnormally high, people are going to find out why!
Here is one reason…. The top 2 Home Run hitters in High School history are from Iowa and Michigan. Admittedly not the greatest competition in the country. However, both of these players became 1st round picks and signed for mega millions.
Point is… If some high school player all of a sudden is hitting HRs at the same pace, does anyone think he will be ignored completely? Or will that one stat create at least "some" interest. Might turn out a wild goose chase, but people are going to see if the player is for real. (if they follow recent history)
If an unknown pitcher anywhere is striking out an average of 2 per inning, he will create interest. Once again, no one will recruit or draft him based on that stat, but they need to see him and gun him and find out why he's doing it. Especially if he has a good K/BB ratio. That would mean he is striking out a ton of hitters and has good control.
Stats like HRs, K/BB, etc. unlike batting average and ERA, don’t have anything to do with favorable score keeping. Very well could have everything to do with short parks and poor competition, but a scout or recruiter needs to find out more about those who are compiling these kind of stats. Someone could compile tons of strikeouts due to poor competition, but who do we blame for the low "walk" total?... Bad umpires?
The problem with “Quality ABs” as a stat, is it only matters if the person keeping track is the one who will recruit or draft the player. Otherwise, it’s another unreliable statistic.
Also, it is not uncommon, to see a player drop considerably in the draft based on poor high school stats. Won’t mention names, but we have seen it happen. After all, first rounders seem to always have great high school stats (check it out). Not most important, but poor stats can cause serious enough doubts to allow players to slip.
Bottom line… The more information… The better! IMO
You can not have too much information! Everyone in scouting and recruiting understands the problem with placing too much value on high school or youth stats. However, that does not mean that these stats are totally worthless! They are still a small part of the overall picture. Not the most important part, but information none the less.
Yes there are many variables that make stats unreliable by themselves. Yes, there can be outstanding prospects with not so outstanding stats. Yes, there can be outstanding stats on not so outstanding prospects.
Here are a couple stats that would not create lots of interest…
Pitchers: W-L, ERA, etc
Position players: Batting Average, On base %, etc
Here are some stats that should create interest:
Pitchers: Strike outs per inning, K/BB ratio
Position players: HRs do create interest.
True that HRs could be due to small field and poor competition, but if the total is abnormally high, people are going to find out why!
Here is one reason…. The top 2 Home Run hitters in High School history are from Iowa and Michigan. Admittedly not the greatest competition in the country. However, both of these players became 1st round picks and signed for mega millions.
Point is… If some high school player all of a sudden is hitting HRs at the same pace, does anyone think he will be ignored completely? Or will that one stat create at least "some" interest. Might turn out a wild goose chase, but people are going to see if the player is for real. (if they follow recent history)
If an unknown pitcher anywhere is striking out an average of 2 per inning, he will create interest. Once again, no one will recruit or draft him based on that stat, but they need to see him and gun him and find out why he's doing it. Especially if he has a good K/BB ratio. That would mean he is striking out a ton of hitters and has good control.
Stats like HRs, K/BB, etc. unlike batting average and ERA, don’t have anything to do with favorable score keeping. Very well could have everything to do with short parks and poor competition, but a scout or recruiter needs to find out more about those who are compiling these kind of stats. Someone could compile tons of strikeouts due to poor competition, but who do we blame for the low "walk" total?... Bad umpires?
The problem with “Quality ABs” as a stat, is it only matters if the person keeping track is the one who will recruit or draft the player. Otherwise, it’s another unreliable statistic.
Also, it is not uncommon, to see a player drop considerably in the draft based on poor high school stats. Won’t mention names, but we have seen it happen. After all, first rounders seem to always have great high school stats (check it out). Not most important, but poor stats can cause serious enough doubts to allow players to slip.
Bottom line… The more information… The better! IMO
PGStaff:
What you are saying is true only if a couple of other things are true:
1. The stats are accurate. And in high school, they are inaccurate as often as not. The fact is, a player or parent probably could make them up and it still would not matter.
2. The level of competition is the biggest thing. The best players will have the best stats against the worst competition, and so will a lot of other guys who are not nearly as good when the game speeds up. Since no one can accurately guage this from one region of the country to another, the stats are all but meaningless, which also is a large part of the reason why showcases have so much value. The showcase organizations -- especially Perfect Game -- bring together the best players from all regions where reasonable comparisons can be accurately made. It's also a place where lots of guys get eliminated.
3. The best players are the best players and it will ulimately show on the field. I've got guys who don't pitch because they are not good enough on our team to pitch. I can take these same guys and put them in Little League and they could literally get strikeouts for every out because the guys in LL have no business on the same field talent-wise. But that would be a meaningless stat. Moreover, I've got another kid who hit 20 HRS his last year in LL, far more than anyone else on our team. But as a power hitter on a legit field, he isn't in our top eight. All those fly ball homeruns are now easy outs.
4. At our high school the last three years, we have had three players transfer to other schools because they could not make the team at our school. One set a record for batting average in a season at his new school, another hit over .500 and made All Region and the last became the No. 1 starter. None of that changed their inherent level of talent. Two went off to college based on their "stats" and were quickly cut in the fall, and the third just faded away. Again, as the game got faster and the talent level increased, they could not keep up and the stats, again, were rendered irrelevant.
As for first rounders, when you are talking talent like that, I would expect them all to dominate their high school competition, but I don't think that proves much at all. And the guys picked at the top of the first round don't necessarily have better stats than they guys picked at the bottom or those picked nearly anywhere in the first five rounds.
But not a single one of them was picked because of his stats.
Finally, yes, I agree the more information, the better, but only if that information is accurate, which, as I said earlier, it usually is not. (And much of the time, as has been pointed out here, it is because the person actually keeping score to begin with has little or no clue).
What you are saying is true only if a couple of other things are true:
1. The stats are accurate. And in high school, they are inaccurate as often as not. The fact is, a player or parent probably could make them up and it still would not matter.
2. The level of competition is the biggest thing. The best players will have the best stats against the worst competition, and so will a lot of other guys who are not nearly as good when the game speeds up. Since no one can accurately guage this from one region of the country to another, the stats are all but meaningless, which also is a large part of the reason why showcases have so much value. The showcase organizations -- especially Perfect Game -- bring together the best players from all regions where reasonable comparisons can be accurately made. It's also a place where lots of guys get eliminated.
3. The best players are the best players and it will ulimately show on the field. I've got guys who don't pitch because they are not good enough on our team to pitch. I can take these same guys and put them in Little League and they could literally get strikeouts for every out because the guys in LL have no business on the same field talent-wise. But that would be a meaningless stat. Moreover, I've got another kid who hit 20 HRS his last year in LL, far more than anyone else on our team. But as a power hitter on a legit field, he isn't in our top eight. All those fly ball homeruns are now easy outs.
4. At our high school the last three years, we have had three players transfer to other schools because they could not make the team at our school. One set a record for batting average in a season at his new school, another hit over .500 and made All Region and the last became the No. 1 starter. None of that changed their inherent level of talent. Two went off to college based on their "stats" and were quickly cut in the fall, and the third just faded away. Again, as the game got faster and the talent level increased, they could not keep up and the stats, again, were rendered irrelevant.
As for first rounders, when you are talking talent like that, I would expect them all to dominate their high school competition, but I don't think that proves much at all. And the guys picked at the top of the first round don't necessarily have better stats than they guys picked at the bottom or those picked nearly anywhere in the first five rounds.
But not a single one of them was picked because of his stats.
Finally, yes, I agree the more information, the better, but only if that information is accurate, which, as I said earlier, it usually is not. (And much of the time, as has been pointed out here, it is because the person actually keeping score to begin with has little or no clue).
jemaz, I totally agree with most everything you've written and have stated what I believe are the stats that will create the most interest. I'll try to reply to your very good points
I couldn't agree more! Thanks for the intelligent debate. You know what your talking about in my book. At one time I was a person who thought all stats were worthless. Still do for the most part.
quote:PGStaff:
What you are saying is true only if a couple of other things are true:
1. The stats are accurate. And in high school, they are inaccurate as often as not. The fact is, a player or parent probably could make them up and it still would not matter.
Stats from parents and/or players would not carry much weight
2. The level of competition is the biggest thing. The best players will have the best stats against the worst competition, and so will a lot of other guys who are not nearly as good when the game speeds up. Since no one can accurately guage this from one region of the country to another, the stats are all but meaningless, which also is a large part of the reason why showcases have so much value. The showcase organizations -- especially Perfect Game -- bring together the best players from all regions where reasonable comparisons can be accurately made. It's also a place where lots of guys get eliminated.
I agree that the true gauge is based on equal competition. However, if an unknown player anywhere in America has 30 HRs in a season, it will create scouting interest. Could very well end up being meaningless, but have to at least find out just to be sure.
3. The best players are the best players and it will ulimately show on the field. I've got guys who don't pitch because they are not good enough on our team to pitch. I can take these same guys and put them in Little League and they could literally get strikeouts for every out because the guys in LL have no business on the same field talent-wise. But that would be a meaningless stat. Moreover, I've got another kid who hit 20 HRS his last year in LL, far more than anyone else on our team. But as a power hitter on a legit field, he isn't in our top eight. All those fly ball homeruns are now easy outs.
LL stats are never considered in scouting or recruiting, regarding the HRs your correct, they might not mean anything, but once in awhile they do.
4. At our high school the last three years, we have had three players transfer to other schools because they could not make the team at our school. One set a record for batting average in a season at his new school, another hit over .500 and made All Region and the last became the No. 1 starter. None of that changed their inherent level of talent. Two went off to college based on their "stats" and were quickly cut in the fall, and the third just faded away. Again, as the game got faster and the talent level increased, they could not keep up and the stats, again, were rendered irrelevant.
Batting Average is not a stat that creates a lot of interest for the very reason you've stated. The game does get faster at every level.
As for first rounders, when you are talking talent like that, I would expect them all to dominate their high school competition, but I don't think that proves much at all. And the guys picked at the top of the first round don't necessarily have better stats than they guys picked at the bottom or those picked nearly anywhere in the first five rounds.
My point was there have been high profile draft prospects (potential first rounders) slip in the draft because of concerns regarding their inability to get high school hitters out enough or (poor stats). One of these was a probable 1st round pick out of high school in California. He was still throwing 92-93 his senior year in HS, but his stats were terrible. He was still drafted, just much lower than his ability dictated. If you call it performance I understand, but his stats proved his poor performance. Truth is, he is now again eligible for the draft after 3 years in college and looks like a possible first round pick. His stats are much better these days against a much higher level of competition. The ability has always been there.
But not a single one of them was picked because of his stats.
True, except we still need to figure out all those who fell because of poor stats. Sometimes it happens. Abilty, performance, potential, are usually confirmed by good stats. No one admits it, but that actually happens.
Finally, yes, I agree the more information, the better, but only if that information is accurate, which, as I said earlier, it usually is not. (And much of the time, as has been pointed out here, it is because the person actually keeping score to begin with has little or no clue).
I couldn't agree more! Thanks for the intelligent debate. You know what your talking about in my book. At one time I was a person who thought all stats were worthless. Still do for the most part.
PG:
All good points and well taken. I have very much enjoyed the conversation. In fact, I hope I enjoy today's basketball games as much.
In the end, the game is so much more fun for a kid and his parents if he just plays. It gets tougher if he doesn't play that much, but it still beats the alternative (of not being on the team) and while stats clearly increase the fun on the pro level, on the high school level they just seem to distract from what otherwise ought to be a ride that ought to be great simply by the nature of it, regardless of where it may or may not lead.
All good points and well taken. I have very much enjoyed the conversation. In fact, I hope I enjoy today's basketball games as much.
In the end, the game is so much more fun for a kid and his parents if he just plays. It gets tougher if he doesn't play that much, but it still beats the alternative (of not being on the team) and while stats clearly increase the fun on the pro level, on the high school level they just seem to distract from what otherwise ought to be a ride that ought to be great simply by the nature of it, regardless of where it may or may not lead.
Chairman:
What are you Chairman of? The Showcase owners of America lobby? I would not care to "elaborate on what kinds of college coaches you(I) am getting feedback from" because I see that as none of your business.
To answer your very dissing slam against West Virginia, western Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and Pennsylvania DI schools none of them were contected in my personal survey. If you would have carefully read my post, I believe you would have found that I researched specific colleges and universities that seemed to have certain stats among their players that I also valued. After doing that, I [and I know this will shock you] actually visited many of those campuses and talked to those coaches and/or assistants one on one about this specific topic. I plan to visit more and do the same thing. So I know of certain college coaches who are initially interested in a player through certain stats because it happened.
They all said, to a man, we would like to see him play in a game. They did not say, to a man, you must get him to a showcase because we go to all of them. They said send us a schedule, high school but more importantly summer and come to our camp if you can [if they had one]. I even asked about showcases and they had a variety of answers, some of which you would not like.
By type only, I talked to some of the best DII coaches in the country [by last years final ranking] and some selected DI schools that emphasize academics along with their baseball program. By that I mean it takes a high GPA and SAT/ACT scores to even get into these places.
By the way, since you seem to have eliminated Ohio State, University of Kentucky, West Virginia University, Virginia Tech and University of Pittsburgh as "mid-major DI WITH resources" [your emphases] perhaps you might define what you mean by a "mid-major DI" school.
Some of us that are not on the "east coast" are looking for schools where are sons can actually learn something other than baseball that they can do for a living. From here on out, if you would just consider any post by me as directed at those people and not at you, we will get along a lot better.
TW344
What are you Chairman of? The Showcase owners of America lobby? I would not care to "elaborate on what kinds of college coaches you(I) am getting feedback from" because I see that as none of your business.
To answer your very dissing slam against West Virginia, western Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky and Pennsylvania DI schools none of them were contected in my personal survey. If you would have carefully read my post, I believe you would have found that I researched specific colleges and universities that seemed to have certain stats among their players that I also valued. After doing that, I [and I know this will shock you] actually visited many of those campuses and talked to those coaches and/or assistants one on one about this specific topic. I plan to visit more and do the same thing. So I know of certain college coaches who are initially interested in a player through certain stats because it happened.
They all said, to a man, we would like to see him play in a game. They did not say, to a man, you must get him to a showcase because we go to all of them. They said send us a schedule, high school but more importantly summer and come to our camp if you can [if they had one]. I even asked about showcases and they had a variety of answers, some of which you would not like.
By type only, I talked to some of the best DII coaches in the country [by last years final ranking] and some selected DI schools that emphasize academics along with their baseball program. By that I mean it takes a high GPA and SAT/ACT scores to even get into these places.
By the way, since you seem to have eliminated Ohio State, University of Kentucky, West Virginia University, Virginia Tech and University of Pittsburgh as "mid-major DI WITH resources" [your emphases] perhaps you might define what you mean by a "mid-major DI" school.
Some of us that are not on the "east coast" are looking for schools where are sons can actually learn something other than baseball that they can do for a living. From here on out, if you would just consider any post by me as directed at those people and not at you, we will get along a lot better.
TW344
I think it is obvious that HS stats mean very little because of the "reliability index" associated with them.
We (very small rural school) have a "girlfriend scorer" and she is totally unknowledgable, not her fault, just the facts. I have scored for years just for the fun of it, and when our brand new coach (5th in 4 years) found out, he asked me for my stats so he could have a clue as to what was going on. His main concern was errors, not BA. Turns out he is going to use it to sit a long time starter with a very vocal, very visable, parent because the kid is fielding at less than 50% level, but he needed some ammunition. When it happens, it's going to be ugly due to this parent.
But the problem is really deeper than "girlfriend scorers". Ex: Last night, my son's team played a vastly superior team with a very good pitcher, and we got drilled 10-0. This is a school that has been playing and coaching at a quality level in HS and summer-travel for years. Ours, on the other hand, puts very little support on athletics of any kind. Our parents are PO'ed, but it is what it is and we deal with it. The other school has a beautifully manicured field, while we have little more than a sandlot.
That being said, their official scored gave an error on a hard hit ball between 1st and 2nd that was very close to the first baseman. He simply broke to the bag instead of trying to make a play on the ball and apparently "mental errors" are the same as physical errors when you want to make your ace look ace-ier.
So it's not just "girlfriends" that are problems at the HS level. But it does further indicate why HS stats are mostly useless.
We (very small rural school) have a "girlfriend scorer" and she is totally unknowledgable, not her fault, just the facts. I have scored for years just for the fun of it, and when our brand new coach (5th in 4 years) found out, he asked me for my stats so he could have a clue as to what was going on. His main concern was errors, not BA. Turns out he is going to use it to sit a long time starter with a very vocal, very visable, parent because the kid is fielding at less than 50% level, but he needed some ammunition. When it happens, it's going to be ugly due to this parent.
But the problem is really deeper than "girlfriend scorers". Ex: Last night, my son's team played a vastly superior team with a very good pitcher, and we got drilled 10-0. This is a school that has been playing and coaching at a quality level in HS and summer-travel for years. Ours, on the other hand, puts very little support on athletics of any kind. Our parents are PO'ed, but it is what it is and we deal with it. The other school has a beautifully manicured field, while we have little more than a sandlot.
That being said, their official scored gave an error on a hard hit ball between 1st and 2nd that was very close to the first baseman. He simply broke to the bag instead of trying to make a play on the ball and apparently "mental errors" are the same as physical errors when you want to make your ace look ace-ier.
So it's not just "girlfriends" that are problems at the HS level. But it does further indicate why HS stats are mostly useless.
Problem Solved!
The coach has not gotten back with me on the stats issue so I took matters into my own hands.
Son's team played in a tournament a couple of hours from home and the team didn't take a bus. One of the bat-girl-score-keepers needed a ride home so I offered her a ride with my family. She accepted and since we needed to eat on the way home we took her to "Outback". That gave me an opportunity to help her understand proper scoring. We haven't played another game yet but the stats are already improving. When she needs help she can look for me in the stands and I will give her hand signals. Much like a base coach.(Hope you guys get a lucky break on your stats too!)
The coach has not gotten back with me on the stats issue so I took matters into my own hands.
Son's team played in a tournament a couple of hours from home and the team didn't take a bus. One of the bat-girl-score-keepers needed a ride home so I offered her a ride with my family. She accepted and since we needed to eat on the way home we took her to "Outback". That gave me an opportunity to help her understand proper scoring. We haven't played another game yet but the stats are already improving. When she needs help she can look for me in the stands and I will give her hand signals. Much like a base coach.(Hope you guys get a lucky break on your stats too!)