Sooo, regression, tell us about some cubs numbers????
Btw, what's meant to be funny and was imo, has, evidently, either no appeal or no recognition in the land of numbers.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?co...r_rob%26id%3d2296529
The article at this link will explain it. Nothing aimed at the Sox in particular.
The logic works on all teams.
The article at this link will explain it. Nothing aimed at the Sox in particular.
The logic works on all teams.
Regression,
I’m just going to have to “agree to disagree”. You do not know what you do not know…
Your IQ is a number derived from a set of standardized tests developed to measure a person’s cognitive abilities or intelligence relative to their age group. It is not a measure of how you perform on your own but a measure of how you perform relative to your peers or age group. The IQ test is designed to give normally distributed results or bell curve frequency with a mean of 100 and one standard deviation being 15. Thus, 68% of the population will have IQs between 85 and 115 (plus or minus one SD from the mean of 100), 95% of the population have IQs between 70 and 130 (+/- 2 SD), and so on… Many variables can correlate to IQ, genetics, environment, development, education, income, brain size, and health are examples. I used IQ as a metaphor to explain “r”, (the correlation measuring how well one team performs vs. another or to MLB) with in the equation Pmr = 100(1 - r) which determines the percent of regression to the mean for a team. That being said, there is a lot that goes into determining the value of “r”. Remember the closer the value of “r” is to one, the smaller propensity will have to regress to the mean. Like IQ there are many factors that determine the value of “r”, Ozzie & coaches, GM Williams, farm system, quality of players, SOS, Fans – like soxnole, $ spent on salaries, are examples. Not all teams are created equal, are the same or have the same “r” just like not all people have the same IQ. Someone with an IQ of 150 may be considered a statistical outlier but it doesn’t mean that his test score will regress to the mean, “r” = 1, and will have a 0 % chance of regressing to the mean of 100. The World Champion Chicago White Sox, as stated before, have a small propensity to regress to the mean (r = 1 would be 0%)…
I’m sorry I did not read the ESPN article you made reference. I wasn’t about to get sucked into a monthly fee to read Bob Neyer. Sounds like he’s a fan of numbers as well… Hope you didn’t get sucked in. Makes for a nice article and I’m sure it helped him meet a deadline. Don’t believe every thing you read including this. Baseball Prospectus… now that’s worth the subscription!
I disagree that my thinking is clouded but will say that I have been on cloud nine since the World Champion Chicago White Sox won the World Series. As for me I am a student of numbers.
“Statistics are about as interesting as first base coaches.” ~ Jim Bouton
I’m just going to have to “agree to disagree”. You do not know what you do not know…
Your IQ is a number derived from a set of standardized tests developed to measure a person’s cognitive abilities or intelligence relative to their age group. It is not a measure of how you perform on your own but a measure of how you perform relative to your peers or age group. The IQ test is designed to give normally distributed results or bell curve frequency with a mean of 100 and one standard deviation being 15. Thus, 68% of the population will have IQs between 85 and 115 (plus or minus one SD from the mean of 100), 95% of the population have IQs between 70 and 130 (+/- 2 SD), and so on… Many variables can correlate to IQ, genetics, environment, development, education, income, brain size, and health are examples. I used IQ as a metaphor to explain “r”, (the correlation measuring how well one team performs vs. another or to MLB) with in the equation Pmr = 100(1 - r) which determines the percent of regression to the mean for a team. That being said, there is a lot that goes into determining the value of “r”. Remember the closer the value of “r” is to one, the smaller propensity will have to regress to the mean. Like IQ there are many factors that determine the value of “r”, Ozzie & coaches, GM Williams, farm system, quality of players, SOS, Fans – like soxnole, $ spent on salaries, are examples. Not all teams are created equal, are the same or have the same “r” just like not all people have the same IQ. Someone with an IQ of 150 may be considered a statistical outlier but it doesn’t mean that his test score will regress to the mean, “r” = 1, and will have a 0 % chance of regressing to the mean of 100. The World Champion Chicago White Sox, as stated before, have a small propensity to regress to the mean (r = 1 would be 0%)…
I’m sorry I did not read the ESPN article you made reference. I wasn’t about to get sucked into a monthly fee to read Bob Neyer. Sounds like he’s a fan of numbers as well… Hope you didn’t get sucked in. Makes for a nice article and I’m sure it helped him meet a deadline. Don’t believe every thing you read including this. Baseball Prospectus… now that’s worth the subscription!
I disagree that my thinking is clouded but will say that I have been on cloud nine since the World Champion Chicago White Sox won the World Series. As for me I am a student of numbers.
“Statistics are about as interesting as first base coaches.” ~ Jim Bouton
10-4 Big Guy.