Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:
Originally Posted by jacjacatk:
Relative to line drives, ground balls suck at every level. I'm sure Stats has posted HS batted ball rates at some point in the past, but the MLB gap between line drive and ground ball slash lines (which is on the order of 1000 points of OPS) is similar to that at the HS level.
Where did you get that information from? I’ve never tried to come up with that number, but I am interested in seeing those numbers.
FWIW, fly balls that don't leave the park at the MLB level are nearly worthless (the fact that a bunch of them do turn into HRs is what makes them worthwhile). I don't have a ton of HS data to go on, but anecdotally fly balls at the HS level get misplayed often enough that it wouldn't surprise me if they're quite competitive with ground ball values even accounting for the lower HR rates.
I’ve never seen a breakdown of fly balls at the ML level. Are you saying a significant percentage of FBs at the ML level are HRs? If so, what’s a significant percentage?
What does the HS data you have, show? When you say “they're quite competitive with ground ball values even accounting for the lower HR rates”, what are you talking about? The number of hits per event, the number of runners reaching base safely per event, or something else like run per event? I’m asking to try to come up with a way to use the data I have to check.
Almost everything you could want to know about MLB splits is available online easily.
http://www.baseball-reference....B&year=2014#traj
9% of FB last season were HR. 51% of fly balls that ended up being hits were HR. The slash line on flyballs was 154/150/442. The slash line on GB was 247/247/268. So GB become hits about 60% more often than FB, but the extra bases on FB (largely from the HR) result in an OPS that's actually higher than the GB OPS.
The LD slash line was 657/650/992, so about 1100 points (or 319%) better than the OPS on ground balls.
I suspect (and vaguely recall based on data you've posted previously) that the HS OPS on ground balls is more likely to be in the 650ish range. say something like 320/320/330. Flyballs are also likely to generate a better slash line given the state of HS OF play, though we'd probably want to look at some actual data to see if FB values are better than GB values at that level (I said it wouldn't surprise me if they were).
I'd be happy to place a bet on LD values being better than either, and an approach along the lines suggested by Coach May being more productive than one preaching hitting GB (though I've no idea how you'd really scientifically test what approach hitters were using).