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I have a topic that I thought would fit the "Ask the Scout" category.

There is a kid on 2019Son's team who seems to hit high velocity pitchers well. He's a decent enough hitter against normal velocity, but doesn't really stand out to me.

I first noticed it last year, when the team faced a pitcher who is now ranked in the Top 5 in the 2019 class. As you might expect, there were a lot of strikeouts, but this kid hammered the ball. Then over the summer they faced a couple 2019 lefties who threw hard (PG profiles have their top velocity at 87 and 85 for those pitchers). Again, lots of strikeouts, but this kid hit the ball. His dad mentioned that he likes hitting against higher velocity -- that probably helps (confidence is half of hitting). So I started paying attention this fall to his at bats against normal velocity (say, 68-75 for a freshman), and, although I don't think the kid stands out in results, I did notice that he very rarely swings and misses at a pitch. Anyway, again a few weeks ago 2019Son's opposing pitcher was a hard thrower for a freshman (low 80s) -- and, again, strikeouts went up but this kid hit the ball very hard. 

So my questions are:

(1) How do you scout this kind of thing when it is only evident intermittently -- only when facing hard throwers, which happens only rarely at the high school level? (note: I'm talking about a freshman, but I suppose the same issue could apply to a 2016 or 2017 who can hit low 90s well but doesn't look all that special against low 80s).

(2) Is this just a function of bat speed? It seems to me that if it were just bat speed this kid would hit the ball significantly farther than his teammates against normal velocity, but I haven't noticed that to be the case. If it is something other than bat speed, what is it?

Thanks in advance.

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I really can't comment on the scouting end of things, because it's not my job. However, while it is great to be able to hit faster pitching, a player has to realize that those will not be the only pitches that he will see.  Can he get away with it in a tournament when the opposing team knows little about a player? Absolutely.  But as he moves along through HS, and even when facing some of the better travel teams who usually have sharper coaches, his being unable to hit off speed will reveal itself.  

For the player in question it's either a lack of practice on different pitch velocities/types or a lack of recognition.  Hopefully for your friend it's the latter.

NYdad2017 posted:

I really can't comment on the scouting end of things, because it's not my job. However, while it is great to be able to hit faster pitching, a player has to realize that those will not be the only pitches that he will see.  Can he get away with it in a tournament when the opposing team knows little about a player? Absolutely.  But as he moves along through HS, and even when facing some of the better travel teams who usually have sharper coaches, his being unable to hit off speed will reveal itself.  

For the player in question it's either a lack of practice on different pitch velocities/types or a lack of recognition.  Hopefully for your friend it's the latter.

Thanks NYdad. I don't want to knock the kid -- it's not that he can't hit off speed. I guess what I'm saying is when the velocity is more-or-less average, he looks OK and does OK, but there are a few other kids who stand out to me more. But when the velo is high, this kid looks like the best hitter on the team -- maybe it's not that he is really doing that much better against high velo than he does against average velo, it's just that the other kids do a lot worse against high velo. I don't know if that makes any sense . . . 

My comment wasn't meant to knock the kid, 2019DAD.  Kids have the opportunity to learn and grow through baseball.  Or not.  Right now this is where that kid is.  

My son was similar, in that he could hit the faster HS pitching at a young age, but didn't have the PATIENCE to wait on a slower pitcher.  It's something that developed over time for him and he was able to have that patience starting in his sophomore spring.

Btw I don't think the guy in the first post is such a guy but even if it is counter intuitive often those machine pitch hitters are having long and slow swings but are able to hit that fast stuff because they start the swing early and time the machine ( or even a fast game pitcher) up. 

 

They cant adjust to slow stuff because the can't wait long enough to read the pitch but always start the swing at the same point. Basically they time the pitcher and not the pitch.

 

in BP they often mess put he first 2-3 and then get in a grove. But in a game you often only get one swing.

Chances are he does hit a lot in cages with pitching machines cranked up.  That is the only explanation I can think of.  Because the higher velocity pitchers are not the norm otherwise.

For the most part all hitters hit best against what they see the most often.  The pitch they see most often is a fastball.  However when that fastball has exceptional (unusual) velocity or movement it is out ordinary and thus harder to hit.  Think Ardolis Chapman in the Major Leagues.  Or a HS pitcher throwing mid 90s.  

Also, most good hitters (some might say all good hitters) are fastball hitters.  Then the separator becomes how they handle breaking balls and off speed pitches.  From a scouting standpoint, the kid that can hit the good fastballs would be more interesting than the kids that can't hit the good fastball.  At some point, everyone needs to be able to hit the good fastball.  Then at some point they will need to make the adjustment to hit the other pitches.  Many have claimed that the inability to hit the curveball ended their chances.

What is harder to understand is it sounds like he doesn't hit lower velocity fastballs.  Seems like that should be like BP for someone that can hit the higher velocity.  But there could be many reasons for that both physically and mentally.  Should be a fairly easy fix.

The great Willie Mays once said something like this when asked the best way to hit the curve ball... "Hit the fastball"

Dominik85 posted:

Btw I don't think the guy in the first post is such a guy but even if it is counter intuitive often those machine pitch hitters are having long and slow swings but are able to hit that fast stuff because they start the swing early and time the machine ( or even a fast game pitcher) up. 

 

They cant adjust to slow stuff because the can't wait long enough to read the pitch but always start the swing at the same point. Basically they time the pitcher and not the pitch.

 

in BP they often mess put he first 2-3 and then get in a grove. But in a game you often only get one swing.

This is counter-intutive . . . Unfortunately I don't have any data or stats, and haven't been paying close enough attention to be more precise about this kid. And maybe it's just a small sample size thing.

But when I noticed it I remembered a local kid who, in his sophomore and junior years in high school, across a couple hundred plate appearances, had a batting average that was a tick lower than his team's overall average, though he had a bit more power. He did not strike out often. In short, he was a maybe just a bit better than average hitter on his HS team. I don't have any breakdown of how he did against better HS pitchers vs. lesser ones, but he participated and excelled in national and international events, and throughout high school he was known nationally as a top prospect. And he ended up as a high draft choice (to be fair, he did have an excellent senior year as the team's top hitter, but he was a top prospect well before that). I would think that if he could hit the top pitchers throwing 90+, he would dominate average high school pitchers, but that didn't seem to be the case, at least until his senior year. It seems weird to me. Or counter-intuitive. I never thought of the batting machine hitter angle, but maybe that explains it.

Everyday Dad posted:

Everyday2018 son is the that way as a pitcher.

He gets the good fastball hitters out like that regularly, by throwing junk. Then the lesser hitter with more patience will be the guys that hit him.

don't throw the offspeed to the lesser guys until they have hit the fastball. a smart but limited Talent hitter might just take the FB and sit on offspeed stuff because that is the only stuff they can hit.

maybe that 74 mph changeup or slider is just the Speed they can hit, so if they look for it it is like a 74 mph fastball for them.

 

so it probably makes sense to throw them FB only (maybe an occasional curve in the dirt until they have hit one.

Sounds similar to my kid.  He is very young, we will be 11u this year.  Since moving to travel ball, he has always been a good fastball hitter.  He does a lot of cage work with pitching machines.  I never played baseball and he quickly surpassed any challenge my arm could prvovide.  I do still throw to him from time to time, but I don't think he gets real work unless its against a pitching machine.

At 8u he could hit (contact) a 70 mph fast ball.  It was hard from him to stay on the ball b/c it was literally so hard and he didn't have the strength in his forearms and wrists to do much with the ball.  He has been working against 80 mph for about two years now and he can drive it from time to time with a wood bat.

Nobody at 11u throws that hard, but I've noticed that most teams look for that flame thrower.  They look for the kid that can blow everybody away with speed.  My son literally runs up into the batters box when he see a pitcher throwing real heat which may have been 55+ at 10u.  For him, that is his warm-up speed.  I just never wanted him to be intimidated by a pitcher.  I've seen plenty of kids that are "scared" of a guy's velocity and know they are a strike out.  I believe in being over prepared.  He doesn't like off speed pitching, but he has gotten better with it each year.  He has hit over .450 the last two years so I'm hoping he can maintain or improve his success at the plate.  I know more off speed is coming this year.

2019Dad posted:
NYdad2017 posted:

I really can't comment on the scouting end of things, because it's not my job. However, while it is great to be able to hit faster pitching, a player has to realize that those will not be the only pitches that he will see.  Can he get away with it in a tournament when the opposing team knows little about a player? Absolutely.  But as he moves along through HS, and even when facing some of the better travel teams who usually have sharper coaches, his being unable to hit off speed will reveal itself.  

For the player in question it's either a lack of practice on different pitch velocities/types or a lack of recognition.  Hopefully for your friend it's the latter.

Thanks NYdad. I don't want to knock the kid -- it's not that he can't hit off speed. I guess what I'm saying is when the velocity is more-or-less average, he looks OK and does OK, but there are a few other kids who stand out to me more. But when the velo is high, this kid looks like the best hitter on the team -- maybe it's not that he is really doing that much better against high velo than he does against average velo, it's just that the other kids do a lot worse against high velo. I don't know if that makes any sense . . . 

What I am thinking is that if he has trouble or he can't hit guys that throw 68 to 75 in high school would be because he just can't wait on it, I also have this problem, can't hit when they pitcher is throwing slow, so I get anxious and go out and try to get the ball, which doesn't work well. When I faced guys throwing harder, for instance, this summer faced a lefty throwing 87, I hit a one hopper to left field fence which was 340 feet. I just change my approach at the plate when someone is throwing faster because I am not used to seeing high velocity guys all the time, so I shorten up, eliminate my stride and focus on keeping my hands loose. Most of the time, guys throwing uppers 80s will try to groove a fastball right by the hitter on the first pitch, so they throw it down the middle, all you've got to do is make good contact and it will go.

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