Hoarding prospects

Smart GMs know that prospects are suspects and they will get you fired.

Survival of the fittest.  

Teams are increasingly stingy with their prospects and the Real top prospects only very rarely get traded (like in the sale Deal a couple years ago or the soto deal).

Many prospects do fail of course but still the artificially low salary during the first years makes them super valuable, even if 4 of your prospects fail and the 5th becomes a 20 million/year kind of player that is huge value because he will be cheap for like 4 years and still below market value the 2 years after that.

That of course is artificial (because mlb is kinda "socialist" and wants to create artificial parity) but it means that nobody wants to give up the really talented prospects.

BTW one aspect of hoarding prospects is also buying a GM time.  The average GM is probably there 5-6 years or so and if his team is doing badly he can sell the idea of a good future and if it doesn't work he got two more years in at a million dollar salary.

Owners love the selling of the future too. You can run a cheap team and sell "trust the process" and "the future is bright" to the fans which is a better sell than "we are cheap".

Sometimes that tanking works and sometimes not but in the meantime fans were keeping up the hope and maybe bought some tickets.

Francis;

During my 17 years years coordinating the Area Code games and Goodwill Series Int'l, I enjoyed my visits to the Front Office of the ML teams and the Scouting Dept. This was my system of improving the AC games.

Each Minor League player has a detailed report from the many scouts who constantly evaluate the player. This include the Minor League Manager's game reports and current photos. Each player is valuable to the TEAM.

Bob

"Founder" of the Area Code games

@Dominik85 posted:

BTW one aspect of hoarding prospects is also buying a GM time.  The average GM is probably there 5-6 years or so and if his team is doing badly he can sell the idea of a good future and if it doesn't work he got two more years in at a million dollar salary.

Owners love the selling of the future too. You can run a cheap team and sell "trust the process" and "the future is bright" to the fans which is a better sell than "we are cheap".

Sometimes that tanking works and sometimes not but in the meantime fans were keeping up the hope and maybe bought some tickets.

Sox fans aren’t buying it. A poll came out today 66% of Sox fans say Chaim Bloom has to go.

@RJM posted:

Sox fans aren’t buying it. A poll came out today 66% of Sox fans say Chaim Bloom has to go.

I haven't been following the team very closely, but isn't Bloom just taking the heat for ownership?  Trading Betts and not resigning Bogaerts must have been ownership decisions, no?

Bogey isn’t exactly tearing it up this year. Can’t pay that kind of money to a .265 hitter. As a Sox fan, I don’t mind a few rough seasons if it looks like the farm system is being rejuvenated. Right now that doesn’t seem to be the case.

The Sox didn’t want to pay Betts and Bogaerts. Betts wanted to try free agency and expected the Sox to ante up. He wanted to stay.

Bogaerts signed a second contract with an out after three years. Had the Sox not dragged their feet they could have signed Bogaerts to along term contract for a lot less and less years than the Padres offered.

The big criticism about Bloom is the pitching. The Sox could have a rotation of Paxton, Bello, Eovaldi, Rodriguez and Wacha.

@RJM posted:

The Sox didn’t want to pay Betts and Bogaerts. Betts wanted to try free agency and expected the Sox to ante up. He wanted to stay.

Bogaerts signed a second contract with an out after three years. Had the Sox not dragged their feet they could have signed Bogaerts to along term contract for a lot less and less years than the Padres offered.

The big criticism about Bloom is the pitching. The Sox could have a rotation of Paxton, Bello, Eovaldi, Rodriguez and Wacha.

I think a big issue with the sox is that they haven't developed much starting pitching in the last 10+ years (really almost 20 years now). At least they have a promising one with Bello now.

They usually have one of the higher payrolls in mlb but they need to limit the amount they spend on hitting somewhat because they don't produce any pitching so when a pitcher gets hurt they can pay a new one.

Still the red Sox have done very well the last 20 years (3 ws since 2004, in that time frame only the giants match that and the cards and astros are the only other teams to even win more than 1) but they always kinda have been on that thin edge in pitching where they had to replace an injured ace with a 6 Era guy from the minors so they win the WS one year and then win 75 the next year.

So they never have runs like winning 4 division titles in a row (closest was 16-18) because they are always one arm injury away from a mediocre season (and because they play in the best division in baseball) but I guess as a fan you prefer some 90 loss seasons sprinkled in and 3 WS in 20 years over winning 15 titles and only 1 WS like the Braves in the 90s and early 00s.

I would say the biggest disappointment with Bloom was that he didn't get the pitching development going more.

It has improved a little and developing starters isn't easy but as a former rays guy you would have hoped he could have created a pitching factory like Tampa did or at least 50% of that.

But right now Bello looks solid (albeit a bit lucky by indicators like fip) but after that by mlb.com the best pitching prospects are ranked 9th and 10th in the org. That is really not enough.

So roughly 11% of prospects become regular or impact MLB players? Certainly a much higher percentage get some time in the MLB, I guess it all depends on how you define success.  

My son was drafted by the Yankees in 2017 as a pitcher and at one point Clarke Schmidt, Michael King, Garrett Whitlock and my son were roommates (all prospects at the time, all great young men). I watched their prospect stock ebb and flow while they were in the system. Of the 4, Whitlock and my son were not protected (on the 40 man) going into 2021, both were rule 5'd and both have had an opportunity with a different team. I think the system works, all except in 2022 when they skipped the rule 5 - IMO many prospects got hosed there...

All 4 of the roommates are currently blessed to be in the MLB, I wouldn't try to categorize any of these young men as regular or impact players - just getting there makes them unicorns.

I feel like the increased MiLB visibility does nothing but strengthen baseball as a whole. I feel like every minor league ball player has always believed they have a path to the MLB - until they they don't. I'm not sure that more exposure increases that, maybe? - They certainly get paid better now.

I would consider any player who sticks in the majors for three years to be a contributor. It applies to your son, Whitlock and King. Schmidt is a year away. Chances are barring injury or losing their stuff they will have at least ten year careers. They’ve proven they belong.

I think developing a starter who can throw 150+ innings for a few years is extremely tough.

There are many pitchers with great stuff but a SP who can throw several 150 innings seasons is hard to get.

I wouldn't just blame development for it, the modern game just means you have to throw every pitch at max intensity but many bodies aren't made to throw 100 pitches at 95 (or 87 for sliders), so in the past they might have cruised at 90 throwing 78 mph breakers and stayed healthy but now that would get bombed so they really have to push their body and get jnjured.

Sure teams now use the bullpen more but I think it has shown that if you only have 100-140 innings guys the pen will just be overworked in late summer which is why teams still pay for a 40 yo verlander or scherzer which of course creates and additional injury risk too.

It's just very tough to build an mlb staff, either you overpay for older guys who get hurt or you have high stuff pitching prospects who have their first tj in the minors and college and then the second one after less than 500 career mlb innings.

Not easy to chose what to do.

@Dominik85 posted:

I wouldn't just blame development for it, the modern game just means you have to throw every pitch at max intensity but many bodies aren't made to throw 100 pitches at 95 (or 87 for sliders), so in the past they might have cruised at 90 throwing 78 mph breakers and stayed healthy but now that would get bombed so they really have to push their body and get jnjured.

I agree, IMO this is the big issue driving all the early injuries (some starting before HS). I don't see a fix for this, they all know they've got to put up big numbers to get noticed (at whatever level). This is why I've come to believe that arm care and symmetrical/small/deceleration muscle training is so important. I don't think it solves the issue, I just think it gives them a better chance to avoid injury.

@JucoDad posted:

I agree, IMO this is the big issue driving all the early injuries (some starting before HS). I don't see a fix for this, they all know they've got to put up big numbers to get noticed (at whatever level). This is why I've come to believe that arm care and symmetrical/small/deceleration muscle training is so important. I don't think it solves the issue, I just think it gives them a better chance to avoid injury.

Yeah I think that is very important, however I think almost all pitchers now do work a lot on arm care, stabilizers and so on and they still drop like flies.

I don't know what the solution is though. Verlander often did take a couple mph off his heater in early innings and left something in the tank for tough spots and it might have helped to prolong his career but then again he had the talent to do it and not get blasted, most guys need to go all out to even survive in the league, if you have a 4.5 Era when going all out you are probably a 6 Era guy and get DFAed when you take 3 mph off your max.

It used to be a start is a marathon and not a sprint, you would kinda ease in a little, maybe not show them your whole arsenal in the first innings and then adjust in later innings and mix it up after you set them up for other stuff but if you do that now it might be 4-0 after 2 innings so you basically start to sprint, throw your whole arsenal in innings 1 and then run as hard as you can until you drop dead.