Holding back offers

Two thoughts come to me on this topic.

1.  I know all coaches feel the need to win now and bringing in older players who have some track record may be a better gamble than bringing in Freshmen who have only demonstrated success at the HS level.  However, I would hope these coaches' 2021 and 2022 classes are still majority Freshmen or they will face a cliff in a few years when the Covid backlog works through.  Also, they will have cultural / team chemistry issues if too few are brought into the program as freshmen.

2.  Was just reading an article in New England Baseball Journal on the schools up here and their Freshman/Transfer class of 2020 and there are 4-5 schools that went crazy in the portal.   Maine, UMass, UConn, Bryant to name 4 have a Freshman/transfer class of 17-19 new players.   The 2021 classes for these schools I would suspect will be tiny, would have to be smaller.  That list didn't include 5th-year seniors who were able to stay too.  So sh*t show.

What's going to happen if they can't play this spring?  It looks like it's a strong possibility.  Then the dearth of players grows exponentially. My son is getting to a point where he may be willing to just play club ball somewhere and get a great education. Sh*t show for sure.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Two thoughts come to me on this topic.

1.  I know all coaches feel the need to win now and bringing in older players who have some track record may be a better gamble than bringing in Freshmen who have only demonstrated success at the HS level.  However, I would hope these coaches' 2021 and 2022 classes are still majority Freshmen or they will face a cliff in a few years when the Covid backlog works through.  Also, they will have cultural / team chemistry issues if too few are brought into the program as freshmen.

2.  Was just reading an article in New England Baseball Journal on the schools up here and their Freshman/Transfer class of 2020 and there are 4-5 schools that went crazy in the portal.   Maine, UMass, UConn, Bryant to name 4 have a Freshman/transfer class of 17-19 new players.   The 2021 classes for these schools I would suspect will be tiny, would have to be smaller.  That list didn't include 5th-year seniors who were able to stay too.  So sh*t show.

I just did a quick search on these 4 schools.   As I suspected, they have ALL seen brighter days.   I'm a Bryant alum and they had a good run for a few years ago and were beating P5 schools...I was at some of those games.   Not so much lately.   Maine and UMASS have been taking it on the chin for a while.   UCONN has probably been the most success New England program over the last 20 years, and they are doing just okay now.   So, with those recent lackluster results there is going to be massive change and more pressure to win NOW (coaches don't care about tomorrow...worry about tomorrow, tomorrow) and save any non-revenue producing program from the financial grim reaper (accountants!).   I'd be even more surprised if there wasn't this level of activity given the NCAA loosening of the transfer rules.   JMO.

@Kimb27 posted:

What's going to happen if they can't play this spring?  It looks like it's a strong possibility.  Then the dearth of players grows exponentially. My son is getting to a point where he may be willing to just play club ball somewhere and get a great education. Sh*t show for sure.

That would be a disaster!  I think we play in the spring but only if schools look past the current case spike and take their time to make decisions on spring sports.  I am hopeful there will be no more rash decisions.  Two vaccines are approved now and we will get past this wave.  Both my kids' schools still all systems go for return to campus.  Son goes back in 4 weeks and 10 mins (he has a move-in slot of 11 am).

@Kimb27 posted:

What's going to happen if they can't play this spring?  It looks like it's a strong possibility.  Then the dearth of players grows exponentially. My son is getting to a point where he may be willing to just play club ball somewhere and get a great education. Sh*t show for sure.

We will play this spring.  Mine returns Jan. 2.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Two thoughts come to me on this topic.

1.  I know all coaches feel the need to win now and bringing in older players who have some track record may be a better gamble than bringing in Freshmen who have only demonstrated success at the HS level.  However, I would hope these coaches' 2021 and 2022 classes are still majority Freshmen or they will face a cliff in a few years when the Covid backlog works through.  Also, they will have cultural / team chemistry issues if too few are brought into the program as freshmen.

2.  Was just reading an article in New England Baseball Journal on the schools up here and their Freshman/Transfer class of 2020 and there are 4-5 schools that went crazy in the portal.   Maine, UMass, UConn, Bryant to name 4 have a Freshman/transfer class of 17-19 new players.   The 2021 classes for these schools I would suspect will be tiny, would have to be smaller.  That list didn't include 5th-year seniors who were able to stay too.  So sh*t show.

This article is about UMass. UMass is desperate to reverse their fortunes after the absurd decision to jump from FCS to FBS. I guess they figured if the could be successful they would have natural regional rivals in BC and UConn. In the article it states Western Kentucky only offered one high school athlete.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

That would be a disaster!  I think we play in the spring but only if schools look past the current case spike and take their time to make decisions on spring sports.  I am hopeful there will be no more rash decisions.  Two vaccines are approved now and we will get past this wave.  Both my kids' schools still all systems go for return to campus.  Son goes back in 4 weeks and 10 mins (he has a move-in slot of 11 am).

If the school presidents listen to Fauci there won’t be school sports until next fall.

The 2020s, 2021s, 2022s and 2023s better be REAL GOOD and/or very smart about where they go.

College coaches want to win for several important reasons. The kid coming out of High School is going to be very low on the depth chart and sitting way down on a bench that's been lengthened unless he shows up with some skill that's going to help the team immediately.  It's going to be seniors, juniors, jucos and transfers all in front of the High School graduate in terms of the pecking order.

That being said, kids shouldn't out kick their coverage when selecting a level, program and school. 

A travel coach once shared "You need to bet on yourself and shoot for the stars."  And, maybe that strategy had some acceptable risk in the past? But, it has a lot more risk in today's environment. There's not as much net to catch you when you fall.

Related to the OP, coaches know all this as well and just might be holding offers or making offers with no promises on money.

I hate to say it but it’s not just about the state of COVID in the spring. Another factor is whether or not basketball can stay healthy enough to play and get to the NCAA tournament. There are a lot of athletic programs who cannot afford to lose March Madness revenue two years in a row in addition to reduced football revenue.

Why not Freshman baseball? Each college has 6 coaches and there local JC

to play.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Why not Freshman baseball? Each college has 6 coaches and there local JC

to play.

Bob

Title IX? There's a limit on men's sports head count where it can't exceed the women's program. So, it's not like you can add 18 freshman and have a freshman team...I think?

Add a Freshwoman softball

team or allow the lady’s to play baseball.

Bob

I have a random thought for the 2022/2023 parents.  My son's school has an MBA program so anyone with an extra year of eligibility could pony up $100k and go for an MBA.  Four kids actually did this and two 5th years transferred to the graduate school.  The school posted videos of the 4 players who stayed and in those videos the major driving force for coming back was a job market that was non existent/uncertain.  Sure they wanted another shot at the D3 world series too but no question it was jobs.  If there is a spring season, as I suspect, these 6 players (the 4 who stayed and 2 who transferred) will run out of eligibility.  There are also 10 true seniors on the team.  If there is a normal job market 16 players should come off the roster.  Sure 1-2 may come from other programs for an MBA but I would guess that fewer will seek graduate degrees to stay and play baseball.  When you combine the lower number of 2021's offered we could be back closer to normal quicker than many might think.   I am an optimist!  This may not hold true for top-end D1's one, I am looking through the lens of HA D3.

For D3, at least, doesn't the NCAA's "blanket waiver" mean that players can complete an entire 2021 college baseball season without using a year of eligibility?  I expect there will be some limits and disruptions in this spring's baseball schedules, but isn't this year an eligibility "freebie" no matter how many games one plays?  I understand the reasons, but things are gonna get weird roster-wise in the next few years.

[I've been away.  I think there was some discussion about this earlier, so forgive me if I'm beating a proverbial dead horse.  And merry Christmas/happy holidays everyone.]

I just spoke with a NCAA Dll CA Coach. He said that he helped/placed 8 of his seniors on other teams outside of CA just so they could play this spring.

@Francis7 posted:

The 2020s, 2021s, 2022s and 2023s better be REAL GOOD and/or very smart about where they go.

Do you think this still be going on in 2024? Still affecting rosters in a big way? Trying to get my head around that.

@KennieProton posted:

Do you think this still be going on in 2024? Still affecting rosters in a big way? Trying to get my head around that.

I think the situation will clear out quicker than people think.   A number of kids are taking a 5th year now because the job market was awful, the draft was 5 rounds and they had their senior year ripped out from underneath them.   When we play this spring kids won't miss their senior season, the job market will be much improved, the draft will be 10+ rounds (I think).   I think fewer kids will seek 5th years.  Add on top that the 2021 classes will likely be the smallest in years.  I think 2022's will have it a little bit better than 2021 and 2023's will be very close to normal.  By the time we get to 2024's it will be normal.  My son is a freshman now, he only has 4 years of eligibility, he graduates in 2024! So all extra years will be played out by then too unless I am thinking about it wrong.   

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

I have a random thought for the 2022/2023 parents.  My son's school has an MBA program so anyone with an extra year of eligibility could pony up $100k and go for an MBA.  Four kids actually did this and two 5th years transferred to the graduate school.  The school posted videos of the 4 players who stayed and in those videos the major driving force for coming back was a job market that was non existent/uncertain.  Sure they wanted another shot at the D3 world series too but no question it was jobs.  If there is a spring season, as I suspect, these 6 players (the 4 who stayed and 2 who transferred) will run out of eligibility.  There are also 10 true seniors on the team.  If there is a normal job market 16 players should come off the roster.  Sure 1-2 may come from other programs for an MBA but I would guess that fewer will seek graduate degrees to stay and play baseball.  When you combine the lower number of 2021's offered we could be back closer to normal quicker than many might think.   I am an optimist!  This may not hold true for top-end D1's one, I am looking through the lens of HA D3.

My son is a senior, but I think that at his HA D3 this is true.  He says that of the graduating 2021's only one player is definitely coming back as a grad student, and one is a maybe.  That maybe is him. But he's applying for a Masters of Finance program not an MBA. However, he does think the quality of the freshman recruits is up, due to the pandemic.

BTW I believe Chico is correct about eligibility.  Any 2021 season, if it happens, doesn't count.

@JCG posted:

My son is a senior, but I think that at his HA D3 this is true.  He says that of the graduating 2021's only one player is definitely coming back as a grad student, and one is a maybe.  That maybe is him. But he's applying for a Masters of Finance program not an MBA. However, he does think the quality of the freshman recruits is up, due to the pandemic.

BTW I believe Chico is correct about eligibility.  Any 2021 season, if it happens, doesn't count.

Was Chico saying that everyone will get another year even if they play the season? Sorry for being daft... just making sure.

That is correct.  I assume that the reasoning is that any season that may happen will be truncated.

More info here:

http://www.ncaa.org/about/reso...iii-student-athletes

"All Division III student-athletes are able to participate in athletics during this academic year without being charged a season of participation or semesters of eligibility."

D3 made the decision when teams and conferences started saying they would not play 2021.  Any D3 player will get 5 years and if they were there last year 6 years.

I don't think it is as clear cut as some want to say.  It will depend on whether the other classifications give a year back.  If they do, then lots of classes are in trouble, maybe not as bad as this year but if you could imagine that if D1 gives a year back then my 2019 would have 6 years to play.  If he stayed and got his masters and school decided to keep giving him his scholarship, why would he leave early unless drafted when he could get full MBA or equivalent covered.  This could present problems through 2025 class.  I would say for D3 it already will through 2025 class.

I've maintained since the spring that it seemed clear to me there would be a trickle down effect of talent to D2 and D3.  My son certainly played it this way.  He's borderline D1 talent, that, in a normal recruiting year, would have likely done the typical purist of HA D1 to see if he could have made that work.  But when it became clear that there was going to be a logjam, returning players, almost guaranteed 2 years of sitting, etc...he went full throttle to D3.  And quickly found he was now competing with the same guys who were in his situation, and many others who were even more likely D1 one guys who simply didn't like the landscape.  Turned out it was a good thing he was honest with himself about the reality of the situation, or he could have very likely ended up on the outside looking for a home.  I suspect it will absolutely be this way for another year, possibly 2.

@Wechson posted:

I've maintained since the spring that it seemed clear to me there would be a trickle down effect of talent to D2 and D3.  My son certainly played it this way.  He's borderline D1 talent, that, in a normal recruiting year, would have likely done the typical purist of HA D1 to see if he could have made that work.  But when it became clear that there was going to be a logjam, returning players, almost guaranteed 2 years of sitting, etc...he went full throttle to D3.  And quickly found he was now competing with the same guys who were in his situation, and many others who were even more likely D1 one guys who simply didn't like the landscape.  Turned out it was a good thing he was honest with himself about the reality of the situation, or he could have very likely ended up on the outside looking for a home.  I suspect it will absolutely be this way for another year, possibly 2.

What is your son's grad year?  2021?

Yes, son is graduating senior @KennieProton.  Committed in August and it became official 2 weeks ago.