Hot Stove 2012-2013

Don't forget the Longoria extension also. Tampa Bay extended into his decline years and Longoria has shown a disturbing injury proneness. I like him as a player but wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa regretting the last several years of the contract.

The Baseball Winter Meetings are next week in Nashville and I'm sure that will produce some hot stove fodder. Here in St. Louis the Cardinals need a LH reliever and a verteran pinch hitter with some pop. They have a surplus of young 98+ mph arms to barter with...

There is a really cool chart of signings and remaining free agents on Baseball-Reference, with sortable stats (but sadly, no info on $$ signed for).

The Upton brothers have always said they'd like to play together, so maybe Justin follows BJ. I was somewhat surprised at what BJ got, but I guess with all the TV and RSN money being tossed around these days, $15M a year is what you expect to pay for a 27-year-old who hasn't topped an .800 OPS in the last five seasons (cumulative totals: .248/.330/.416, .746 OPS and a barely better than league average 104 OPS+). Woof.

I think David Wright can play seven more years. That only takes him through his age 36 year, which isn't terribly old as great players go (or 3B). Might be a bit of an albatross contract toward the end, but I'd be surprised to see Wright play that entire contract for the Mets anyway.

I really think the Hot Stove won't REALLY heat up until Josh Hamilton sets the market (kind of like last year, where Fielder and Pujols more or less set the market). I'll be happy if my team just decides to participate at all.

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The Baseball Winter Meetings are next week in Nashville and I'm sure that will produce some hot stove fodder.

I'll be there...should be a very busy and exciting time for baseball.

spanns trade by the twins may help ITS son

TR,

Yes, just what I was thinking!


Julie

ITS and I were discussing this just the other day

For the most part, I think the signings (so far) have made sense and have been reasonable to both player and team.

The Yankees made a great choice in re-signing Mo for $10M IMHO. As a presumed contingency, the Nats are planning to move Morse to first which explains the Spann signing. But there are rumors the Nats are shopping Morse, so who knows what Rizzo is thinking right now. Harper will be more comfortable in right and Spann in center. I hope they can sign Laroche, because that guy was clutch with both the glove and bat. I'd pay the guy

I'm not really that high on the BJ Upton signing with the Braves for 5yr/$75M. I think the Braves overpaid for a guy who is a .255 lifetime hitter and averages 155 Ks a year for the last 6 years. Yikes! His strike outs per year over the last 6 years is actually going up. Can you say big redflag? $15M per year seems to be a lot to play a mediocre outfielder with an elite ballclub.

Agree with fenwaysouth and happy the Upton to Detroit rumors didn't happen.

Big rumor here is the Tigers are trying to upgrade defensively at SS. The head scratcher is why they picked up Peralta's option.

Well, my Orioles are in the kitchen of the hot stove league, but will undoubtedly once again try to make goulash from the leftovers...but it worked in 2012.......

I see the Orioles did non-tender Mark Reynolds which frees up some money.

fenway- I think BJ was valued just about where he should be valued. I'm always a little skeptical about multi-year deals (especially with players who rely on speed...and pitchers). But, the amount of money per year I think fits exactly where Upton is projected to contribute, and he's still in his prime years.

This article is pretty well done and sheds some light on the analysis: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs...edictable-agreement/

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But, the amount of money per year I think fits exactly where Upton is projected to contribute, and he's still in his prime years.

JH - We may be splitting hairs. I did read your link, and I think the author offered a fair assessment of the Upton pros and cons. You're siding more with the pros and I'm siding more with the cons is the way I'm reading it.

Your statement about "projected" contribution is exactly my point. I think the Braves are taking a slight leap of faith with his productivity. If it was my money, I wouldn't have done it...he simply doesn't hit for contract, walk enough and he's an avg CF as Cam stated on the FanGraphs website. I thought you were a big SaberMetrics/WAR guy? What does WAR say about this guy? I read his WAR as BJ Upton got a great deal.

WAR in 2012 3.3 if I read correctly.
Braves got caught in a different war...bidding.

I have to go with Fenway, and way too much for Braves to afford.

Upton's WAR last season was 3.3. He averages about that for his career thus far. His ISO last season was .208, which is a drastically highward trend from his career average of .167, and should remain around there with his hitting approach changing. He's a career wRC+ of 107, which is above average for a CF. His line drive % has been increasing every year as well.

What I see is this: a solid defensive centerfielder who doesn't really do anything great, but does everything in the game a little bit above average. When you factor everything into account, he's somewhere between the 50th and 75th percentile of MLB centerfielders. That's all based off statistics he's garnered through age 28. Age 28-32 is typically "prime" years, so one would assume that its the most valuable time of his career (there are always exceptions, of course).

There's a lot more to look at than just WAR when evaluating a player. But to put in in financial terms just for that reference, one win was approximated to be worth $5.5 million in 2012. BJ Upton was worth 3.3, which translates to $18.15 million in gross revenue for the organization. The Braves, who are a much higher revenue team than the Rays, value wins differently (this is an assumption)...most likely at a higher economic rate. If Upton were to average 3.3 WAR per season for the next 5 years, the Braves would get their return on investment and some.

If he doesn't, he could trend downward in WAR of 0.5 wins a year and still be worth his value. We can't predict how much a win will be valued at by time his contract will be up in 2017, but I can assure you that it'll be more than $5.5 million. And in that case, the Braves can still get value out of him even if he decreases in his performance. This is why you see a lot of long term contracts backloaded...agents know the upward trend of win revenue and try to exploit it to the advantage of their client. If anything, the annual split of payments only benefits the Braves because there is a good possibility they can retain Upton's value over the entire life of his contract.

I don't think he was undervalued, and I don't think he was overvalued. I think the Braves signed him for right about where he stands in the free agent market, with his capabilities.

As a central Floridian who has followed the Rays carefully since their conception I really wish there was some way we could have kept him; however, it was obvious we couldn't and there is no doubt in my mind he will be good for Atlanta. It bugs me when I hear he is average defensively. He is not average if you watch him every game-- and I do. If Desmond Jennings shifts to center we will not be as good there because his arm is simply not as strong.

Very happy BJ will be a Brave. We grew up on the Braves, and they will always be our favorite NL team. Looking forward to following his progress.

I might be wrong but I think the ballpark factor could help BJ Upton's numbers in Atlanta also. He's one of those guys who has all the tools but has never quite put it all together especially as far as hitting for average and now OBP. The one thing that worries me is that he seems to be getting less patient at the plate as he tries to hit for more power and his OBP has declined quite a lot since the two very good years he had in in 2007 and 2008. His strikeouts are also increasing. He is certainly not a top of the order guy with the numbers he is putting up. While his body type ages well, I feel that players primes are actually more toward 26-30 than 28-32. He is still in his prime either way though. I too feel that with his age and other factors, the contract was about right. He is considered a plus defender by many people although not as good as Bourn. I would much rather take my chances on Upton for that $75 million than on Bourn for $100 million-plus since power lasts longer than a game based totally on speed.

This whole discussion of BJ Upton, and more particularly what goes into free agent contract values is one of the more fascinating subjects (and most interesting applications of WAR) out there.

There is an interesting theory in the sabermetric community that you can basically settle in on an average market value of $$ per win that clubs will pay (last offseason, it was between $4M and $5M, closer to $5M) and that you can predict farily accurately what clubs will pay by using a simple model that projects age-related decline of about 0.5 WAR per year, and about 5% inflation on the $$/win rate each year. So, for instance, in this interesting article from Fangraphs about a year ago (which dealt with whether each additional win provided by a premium player increases the $$/win rate he should get exponentially, or simply linearly), you see that this simple model (using a $5M/win starting rate) exactly predicted CC Sabathia's contract a year ago.

As I alluded to in my earlier post, with the increased revenues from mega TV deals and Regional Sports Networks beginning to hit MLB, most expect the rate of $$/win paid this year to free agents to be closer to $5.5M/win this year (closer to a 10% increase over last year). If this is the case, then Upton's contract looks almost exactly like market value, as JH suggests. If you assume Upton is a 3.5 WAR player next year (he was at 3.3 WAR last year, and has average 3.8 WAR over his last five seasons), that model predicts a total value of $74.5M over the next five years.

However, there are a lot of assumptions here. One is that $5.5M/win will be accurate, when this Hot Stove League season ends. We're not there yet; though the early indicators are that this value should be pretty accurate, we won't really know until ALL the Fat Ladies sing.

Another, as fenwaysouth has alreadysaid, is just how murky this "projection" business can be. As the article linked to explains, tweak any number of assumptions just a little, and all the suddent Upton looks pretty overpaid or underpaid, depending on how you think he'll do going forward.

Over the five seasons from 2008-2012, BJ Upton has averaged a little better than 148 games per season, and 3.8 WAR. However, his actual WAR has ranged from a low of 2.4 (in 144 games in 2009) to 5.0 (over 145 games in 2008). As Three Bagger notes, there are some red flags with respect to Upton's approach and some reason to believe his regression is a sign of things to come, but he (and JH) also note that his body type ages well and some of his five-tools are less appreciated than others (at least outside of those who actually have to open their pocketbooks to pay guys like BJ). Where will he come in next year? As I said, if he can repeat the year he had last year, he is getting paid pretty close to market value. If he slips to a baseline of, say, 2.8 WAR? The model suggests he's being overpaid by about $4M a year. If the true baseline for a player just hitting his peak (28) is closer to the average of his last five years (3.8 WAR), then it looks like the Braves paid about $10M less than they should have.

My own view is similar to Three Bagger's: I have some concerns about Upton's approach, and I think going forward I'd rather pay assuming he is a player closer to the lower end of the range he's displayed over the last five years than the upper end. I'd probably be comfortable assuming a baseline of 3.0 WAR rather than 3.5, BUT I also think Upton will age a bit more gracefully than the average player over the next five years (I'd be comfortable assuming a 0.3 WAR per year decline rather than 0.5). Based on those assumptions, IF the going rate is $5.5M/win, then Upton is being slightly overpaid - that would project a contract value of $72M over five years, rather than the $75M he got.