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While we wait for the high school and collegiate seasons to start I was wandering what some of yall's thoughts are on the big moves taking place in the last few days around ML baseball. I will post my thoughts but of course feel free to agree or disagree:

 

$325,000,000 for 13 YEARS-WOW!!! Actually I'm kind of torn on the Stanton contract for several reasons. It's very exciting to see a young rising superstar to get this kind of money but on the other hand I'm not sure this is the team that can afford to do this being fourth from the bottom in attendance even with a new ballpark. Boston, NY, Chicago Cubs, Angels, Tigers, Dodgers, but not too many others can survive this much payroll being given to one player. I believe the only playoff team to ever have one player take up more than 20% of the payroll was the Texas Rangers one year with Pudge Rodriquez.Miami will have to eventually pay Fernandez also so how will they have anyone around them except young cheap players? It will be interesting to watch if he doesn't end up with another club in 3 to 4 years. Hope his health holds out!

 

Russell Martin gets $83,000,000 from Toronto for five years starting at age 32. I think the free agent salaries are all taking a big jump this year but still feel this was an overpay based on intangibles such as pitch framing, leadership, handling of young pitchers, etc. Martin just hit the jackpot in the year in which he was a free agent. Martin had his best year in the last five but it may have been an offensive outlier. He will help a staff  defensively though. Toronto seemed to have some more important holes to feel so I'm kind of surprised the Cubs lost out on Martin.

 

Sandoval is meeting with Boston as we speak and I have a feeling he is another guy who is going to be paid more than he is worth as a regular season player. If fans can be happy with 12-18 HRs, 65-85 RBI's and around a .280-.300 average for $90-$100 million then go for him but I think some people will be very disappointed....unless the team makes the playoffs and World Series where for some reason he turns into Lou Gehrig!! He will get $85,000,000 for sure though.

 

Poor Phillies! As long as R.Amaro Jr. is in charge I expect the further collapse of this once proud franchise. He has set them back for years to come.

 

I keep hearing the Washington Nationals may trade Jordan Zimmermann. I would trade Strasburg first! But the number of years of team control of the player will probably be the difference. And I certainly wouldn't trade either unless I felt I was getting Lester who will probably go back to Boston or Schertzer who is going to want $150 million at least since he turned down $144 million from Detroit last season.

 

How long is the A Rod circus going to last?-- will the Yankees have the b---s to release him if he flops in Spring training. I hope so!!

 

The Cardinals are always so well run and the Miller for Heyward trade just adds to that belief in my book as I feel Heyward may finally step his game up to at least most of what people predicted for him. But you know what, he is a pretty good player even if he just stays the same! The Cardinals seem to always be able to develop pitchers so I think giving up Miller isn't that big a deal although he has the potential to be a #2 at least. This trade also signals that Atlanta may be ready to go through a rebuilding phase with the Uptons and Gattis all available, although good luck finding a taker for B. J. Upton.

 

Anyone see any other blockbuster trades or signings in the next week or so?

 

 

 

 

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RE Sandoval, supposedly the Yasmany Thomas situation will be resolved very soon, and also supposedly the Giants are the frontrunner and are talking about possibly converting him to 3B.  If they do sign Thomas, I don't think the Giants will also make Sandoval an offer that is truly competitive with the crazy offer that Boston will no doubt make. They'll cry poor.  But if they don't get Thomas, then I'd expect the Giants to go all in on the Panda.

 

Edit to say ... I guess there's a third domino in the picture as well. Once Pablo signs, whoever doesn't get him will probably be falling over themselves to get Hanley Ramirez, if it's true that he's willing to move to 3B.  I guess that could work in reverse for a team like Boston, but I can't see the Giants making a serious play for Rameriz until the Sandoval situation is resolved.  The fans would turn on them.  Thomas is different because he plays OF.

Last edited by JCG
Cole Hamels placed the Red Sox on his no trade list. It's seen as a ploy to get the Sox to guarantee his fifth year club option to do the deal. That brings the numbers to five years at 115 million plus Swihart, Owens and another prospect or two. For close to that number they can sign Lester and keep the prospects. Or trade one of them and lesser prospects for Smardzija as a #2.

Lester to the Cubs for a big but reasonable contract.  He obviously wants to be paid because of everyone this year getting paid but Theo is going to sell him on breaking another curse.  I have no reason to back this up other than I'm a Cubs fan and I'm tired of them losing and this seems to be the best chance they got.

Originally Posted by JCG:

... I don't think the Giants will also make Sandoval an offer that is truly competitive with the crazy offer that Boston will no doubt make.

Regardless of the Giants situation. the Red Sox need a real third baseman.  The two year Middlebrooks experiment is a big disappointment.  Fortunately for Panda, when the need is high the price is also high.  

 

 

Originally Posted by old_school:

Ruben Amaro is terrible - but ultimately the Phillies ownership and lack of accountability are to blame. He would have been terminated from any other organization 

Absolutely agree.  The worst GM in baseball without question.  

 

 

 

Originally Posted by RJM:
Cole Hamels placed the Red Sox on his no trade list. It's seen as a ploy to get the Sox to guarantee his fifth year club option to do the deal. That brings the numbers to five years at 115 million plus Swihart, Owens and another prospect or two. For close to that number they can sign Lester and keep the prospects. Or trade one of them and lesser prospects for Smardzija as a #2.

Too much.  I don't think the Red Sox will pull the trigger on guaranteeing the fifth year for $115.  They will gladly honor Cole's desire to not be traded to the Red Sox. They are in re-tool mode after last years embarrassment..  $115M for an aging pitcher into his second large contract ain't going to fly.  Walk, no run away from that deal!

Originally Posted by old_school:

Russell Martin gets a 5 yr deal at age 32 - he gets an atta boy but no way wouldn't I do it! Catching is such a tough job and they tend to age quickly.

Not only is 32 old to be handing out a five year deal to a catcher. I'll bet 2014 is an exception rather than the rule going forward. His only other season that matches up was when he was 24.

Stanton's contract:

 

According to a major league source who had seen the terms, Stanton's salaries over those first three seasons will be only $6.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016 and $14.5 million in 2017, far less than he could have earned through arbitration in 2015-16 and then via free agency. He would then earn $77 million over the next three seasons, and could opt out of the contract after 2020, following his age 30 season.

 

So the Marlins would be on the hook for only $107 million of the deal over the first six seasons, which computes to an average annual value of just $17.83 million per season before Stanton would have the right to exercise the opt-out clause.

 

If Giancarlo Stanton opts out of his new deal after the first six seasons, he'll be walking away from $218 million over the final seven seasons, sources said.

 

If Stanton remains a Marlin, the $218 million he would collect over those final seven seasons would average out to $31.14 million a year.

 

I see Stanton as a loser in this deal (relative to MLB baseball contracts) unless he badly wants to stay in Miami for his career. He will only make 30M the next three years. The first six are only 107M. If Stanton remains the player he is and doesn't opt out after six season 31.4M per year may be a discount for a player of his ability by 2020.

Last edited by RJM

Now that the figures on the backloading of the Stanton contract have come out, it is not such a bad deal for the Marlins in the near future but you can bet they will try to trade him to one of the big boys before the big paydays start coming. Stanton has a No Trade but The Miami ownership will either make him so miserable or let the club get so bad that he will demand a trade. The Marlins would get his prime years and as usual someone else will pay massive bucks for the past as in the Pujols and Hamilton contracts.Someone may still get a good player or maybe a great player for a couple of years but they will be massively overpaying if he is a 20-25 Hr guy by the age of 34-35.

Originally Posted by RJM:
Originally Posted by old_school:

Russell Martin gets a 5 yr deal at age 32 - he gets an atta boy but no way wouldn't I do it! Catching is such a tough job and they tend to age quickly.

Not only is 32 old to be handing out a five year deal to a catcher. I'll bet 2014 is an exception rather than the rule going forward. His only other season that matches up was when he was 24.

IMHO a 5 year deal to a 32 year old catcher is a serious stretch unless you consider him a 1B or DH at the tail end of the deal. If so, they over paid...

Originally Posted by RJM:

I'm sensing if the Red Sox don't manage to bring Lester back they're going to be left holding the bag, up the creek, pick any bad cliche in rebuilding a pitching staff that can compete in 2015. They will end up accumulating a bunch of #3 starters.

If they don't get Lester, they'll overpay (with prospects) for Hammels. Right now they're doing the math on holding the kids and that benefit versus overpaying for Lester.

What I don't get is the attention for Sandoval. For five years, you've got a guy who will play 3B for a year or two and then be the next DH in Boston. Is he worth it? At 5 years and $80m maybe. At 5 years and $90m, not so sure? The value of a DH is disputable. Pappi is likely the best clutch DH of all time, but can anyone else do what he has done? I doubt it. 

Originally Posted by 2ndMarDiv:

Marlins need real baseball people running the organization.

One stud hitter in the lineup doesn't win games. The bigger question is if they can grow a franchise around him. If not, he walks in the middle of the deal. If so he still walks a lot the next couple of years as I sure wouldn't pitch to him...

Originally Posted by JMoff:
Originally Posted by RJM:

I'm sensing if the Red Sox don't manage to bring Lester back they're going to be left holding the bag, up the creek, pick any bad cliche in rebuilding a pitching staff that can compete in 2015. They will end up accumulating a bunch of #3 starters.

If they don't get Lester, they'll overpay (with prospects) for Hammels. Right now they're doing the math on holding the kids and that benefit versus overpaying for Lester.

What I don't get is the attention for Sandoval. For five years, you've got a guy who will play 3B for a year or two and then be the next DH in Boston. Is he worth it? At 5 years and $80m maybe. At 5 years and $90m, not so sure? The value of a DH is disputable. Pappi is likely the best clutch DH of all time, but can anyone else do what he has done? I doubt it. 

Hamels will cost 5 years at 115M (see post above) plus two of their top four prospects and more. He's not worth it versus giving Lester 5 years and 125M and keep the prospects. Then one of the top four prospects and other prospects can be traded for Smardzija or similar. 

 

Sandoval is in a good place. He's a free agent during a lean free agent year for third basemen. The Red Sox need another left handed hitter and a third baseman. I'm sure they see him as a DH in three years. My concern would be him Mo Vaughn-ing on the Red Sox (hits thirty overweight and fades quickly).

I feel that the perception is that Sandoval is a better player than he really is because he's had some great Octobers. He is a good player don't get me wrong but I think people will be disappointed in his production during the seasons for the kind of money he is liable to get. Can't blame him for taking it though! His weight issues may become a bigger problem as he ages. I see no problem with the yearly amounts some guys get, it's just the amount of years that leads to bad contracts.

 

Billy Butler just got $30 million from Oakland for 3 years. I'm a little surprised as I feel he may be in decline and can DH only. Normally not really Billy Beane's type of guy but I guess they had their reasons for signing him.

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