Hot stove talk

RE Sandoval, supposedly the Yasmany Thomas situation will be resolved very soon, and also supposedly the Giants are the frontrunner and are talking about possibly converting him to 3B.  If they do sign Thomas, I don't think the Giants will also make Sandoval an offer that is truly competitive with the crazy offer that Boston will no doubt make. They'll cry poor.  But if they don't get Thomas, then I'd expect the Giants to go all in on the Panda.

 

Edit to say ... I guess there's a third domino in the picture as well. Once Pablo signs, whoever doesn't get him will probably be falling over themselves to get Hanley Ramirez, if it's true that he's willing to move to 3B.  I guess that could work in reverse for a team like Boston, but I can't see the Giants making a serious play for Rameriz until the Sandoval situation is resolved.  The fans would turn on them.  Thomas is different because he plays OF.

Ruben Amaro is terrible - but ultimately the Phillies ownership and lack of accountability are to blame. He would have been terminated from any other organization 

Cole Hamels placed the Red Sox on his no trade list. It's seen as a ploy to get the Sox to guarantee his fifth year club option to do the deal. That brings the numbers to five years at 115 million plus Swihart, Owens and another prospect or two. For close to that number they can sign Lester and keep the prospects. Or trade one of them and lesser prospects for Smardzija as a #2.

Lester to the Cubs for a big but reasonable contract.  He obviously wants to be paid because of everyone this year getting paid but Theo is going to sell him on breaking another curse.  I have no reason to back this up other than I'm a Cubs fan and I'm tired of them losing and this seems to be the best chance they got.

Regardless of the Giants situation. the Red Sox need a real third baseman.  The two year Middlebrooks experiment is a big disappointment.  Fortunately for Panda, when the need is high the price is also high.  

 

 

Absolutely agree.  The worst GM in baseball without question.  

 

 

 

Too much.  I don't think the Red Sox will pull the trigger on guaranteeing the fifth year for $115.  They will gladly honor Cole's desire to not be traded to the Red Sox. They are in re-tool mode after last years embarrassment..  $115M for an aging pitcher into his second large contract ain't going to fly.  Walk, no run away from that deal!

Russell Martin gets a 5 yr deal at age 32 - he gets an atta boy but no way wouldn't I do it! Catching is such a tough job and they tend to age quickly.

Not only is 32 old to be handing out a five year deal to a catcher. I'll bet 2014 is an exception rather than the rule going forward. His only other season that matches up was when he was 24.

I'm sensing if the Red Sox don't manage to bring Lester back they're going to be left holding the bag, up the creek, pick any bad cliche in rebuilding a pitching staff that can compete in 2015. They will end up accumulating a bunch of #3 starters.

Stanton's contract:

 

According to a major league source who had seen the terms, Stanton's salaries over those first three seasons will be only $6.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016 and $14.5 million in 2017, far less than he could have earned through arbitration in 2015-16 and then via free agency. He would then earn $77 million over the next three seasons, and could opt out of the contract after 2020, following his age 30 season.

 

So the Marlins would be on the hook for only $107 million of the deal over the first six seasons, which computes to an average annual value of just $17.83 million per season before Stanton would have the right to exercise the opt-out clause.

 

 

If Stanton remains a Marlin, the $218 million he would collect over those final seven seasons would average out to $31.14 million a year.

 

I see Stanton as a loser in this deal (relative to MLB baseball contracts) unless he badly wants to stay in Miami for his career. He will only make 30M the next three years. The first six are only 107M. If Stanton remains the player he is and doesn't opt out after six season 31.4M per year may be a discount for a player of his ability by 2020.

Now that the figures on the backloading of the Stanton contract have come out, it is not such a bad deal for the Marlins in the near future but you can bet they will try to trade him to one of the big boys before the big paydays start coming. Stanton has a No Trade but The Miami ownership will either make him so miserable or let the club get so bad that he will demand a trade. The Marlins would get his prime years and as usual someone else will pay massive bucks for the past as in the Pujols and Hamilton contracts.Someone may still get a good player or maybe a great player for a couple of years but they will be massively overpaying if he is a 20-25 Hr guy by the age of 34-35.

I would have loved to see Stanton as a Yankee. And Jose Iglesias from the Tigers take over for Jeter at short. Dag it that would have been a sweat deal.

Glad to see Zack Duke whose parent used to post on this site just signed a three year $15 million dollar contract with the White Sox. He had a nice year last year.

Marlins need real baseball people running the organization.

IMHO a 5 year deal to a 32 year old catcher is a serious stretch unless you consider him a 1B or DH at the tail end of the deal. If so, they over paid...

If they don't get Lester, they'll overpay (with prospects) for Hammels. Right now they're doing the math on holding the kids and that benefit versus overpaying for Lester.

What I don't get is the attention for Sandoval. For five years, you've got a guy who will play 3B for a year or two and then be the next DH in Boston. Is he worth it? At 5 years and $80m maybe. At 5 years and $90m, not so sure? The value of a DH is disputable. Pappi is likely the best clutch DH of all time, but can anyone else do what he has done? I doubt it. 

One stud hitter in the lineup doesn't win games. The bigger question is if they can grow a franchise around him. If not, he walks in the middle of the deal. If so he still walks a lot the next couple of years as I sure wouldn't pitch to him...

Hamels will cost 5 years at 115M (see post above) plus two of their top four prospects and more. He's not worth it versus giving Lester 5 years and 125M and keep the prospects. Then one of the top four prospects and other prospects can be traded for Smardzija or similar. 

 

Sandoval is in a good place. He's a free agent during a lean free agent year for third basemen. The Red Sox need another left handed hitter and a third baseman. I'm sure they see him as a DH in three years. My concern would be him Mo Vaughn-ing on the Red Sox (hits thirty overweight and fades quickly).

I feel that the perception is that Sandoval is a better player than he really is because he's had some great Octobers. He is a good player don't get me wrong but I think people will be disappointed in his production during the seasons for the kind of money he is liable to get. Can't blame him for taking it though! His weight issues may become a bigger problem as he ages. I see no problem with the yearly amounts some guys get, it's just the amount of years that leads to bad contracts.

 

Billy Butler just got $30 million from Oakland for 3 years. I'm a little surprised as I feel he may be in decline and can DH only. Normally not really Billy Beane's type of guy but I guess they had their reasons for signing him.

The latest on The Panda.  Not looking good for the Giants:

 

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.c...o-blue-jays-gameday/

 

Update:   well, maybe it's not a done deal quite yet.

 

https://twitter.com/hankschulm...s/535166123613122561

I am in agreement with you, I wonder what his agent was thinking but it is well known  fact that he wished to stay in South Florida.

I agree with you on every point. Don't pay for Hammels. I'd rather pay for Lestor, skip Sandoval, unless you get him cheaply with the prospect of doing the Wade Boggs thing on the wall. Find another starter for less prospects and continue to grow from within.

 

Two important reasons....the guy can freaking hit and he brings his own BBQ sauce.

 

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A great Xmas stocking stuffer for your baseball player who likes BBQ!  

Billy is a log jam once he reaches base, You really need him to hit doubles and HRs because it takes 4 base hits to score him from 1st

The thing about Panda is that he seems to hit clutch doubles time and again in October. Can he keep it up? Probably not, but then he seems to anyhow.

The Sox offered Lester six years for 120M. The agents were pleased. But he's still going to meet with the Braves. I was telling people from the point Lester was traded last summer the Braves are the sleeper. Lester's year round family residence is Atlanta. His oldest kid starts school next year. Since Lester has said the top offer is not the priority I would be surprised if the Cubs can outbid the Sox. The only issue would be if Lester thinks the Cubs are in a better place competitively for the next six years.

Exciting days for the Red Sox as they have apparently rebuilt their offense in one flurry of activity as reports say they have made deals with BOTH Hanley Ramirez and Pedro Sandoval. I think this will start a chain reaction as the Red Sox will probably play Hanley in left with X, Bogarts so highly thought of as a young shortstop. Cesepedes will quite possibly be traded to make room. The Red Sox are still in the hunt for Lester so their fan base has to be excited!

In the words of Randolph and Mortimer Duke......we're back!  

 

 

Well, almost.  We still need to put some guys on the bump, but our GM is working OT on that.  

 

Three Bagger/RJM - this is going to get very interesting.  Put on your seatbelts.

Lester to the Braves would be Beautiful!

The Braves getting some offense would be beautiful!!  Braves had a solid pitching staff last year.  Had a good defense as well.  Their offense was WAY sub-par.  Yet, they haven't pursued ANY big sticks in the off season as of yet.  To me, it has been VERY frustrating.  What would be beautiful would be the Braves pursuing someone who can hit on a consistent basis.  The biggest clutch hitter they had last year was LaStella - and they got rid of him.  Ugh.

I'm not excited about signing Sandoval for more than a couple of years. I'm not excited about signing Ramirez at all. He's injury prone and comes with a reputation of being a clubhouse cancer. After spending the money they spent on a fat guy and a fat head they better not get outspent on Lester. Ramirez is a bigger risk than Lester.

I think Ortiz will keep Ramirez in line. Sandoval may only play third for the first three years of the contract and take over as designated hitter the last couple of years. Boston is in the best position I have seen in a long time to trade excess players for someone like Hamels. They can probably dump some excess outfielders on the Phil's with you know who in charge. Most gm's would demand four players including Bogart , Cepedes and Betts but this is RAmaro so anything is possible.

I'd take Sandoval in a heartbeat. He may have some weight issues, but he is one of the most athletic players I've seen - heavy or not. I sometimes can not believe the plays he makes at 3rd. I would not consider him a liability there at all. JMO.

You would take him now. But will you want him when he's 32 and 33, overweight, being paid 19M and his reaction time is diminished?

I'm proposing a new word to the English language.  FUBAR is descriptive, but often an overused acronym.  We need a new word.

 

I propose "Lucchinorize" as a new word in the lexicon .....definition: to demonstrate ineffectiveness, absolute and determined stupidity when dealing with business matters.  To effectively piss off and alienate a potential employee, and current and future customers worldwide, to single-handedly set a winning organization back 5 years through incompetence and ego."  

Lester tweeted not that long ago that he's going with the Cubs.  Pieces are falling into place for the curse to be broke.  I predict 2016 for a World Series.........or 2017.

fenwaysouth,

 

All is not lost as truthfully Lester was overpaid by the Cubs, a franchise that has to overpay due to not having been a winner. The Red Sox are in great position to get Hamels via trade especially when dealing with a knucklehead like Amaro Jr. They will probably offer the overrated Cespedes and a couple of their secondary young guys and Amaro will DEMAND that Victorino be included in the trade! They also have the money to get Schertzer if they are willing to spend it.

How many times do we see the Lester-Red Sox scenario play out in sports? Had the Sox offered Lester five years at 110M a year ago he would still be on the Red Sox. 

 

The Cubs overpaid. Chances are they get three or four top of the staff years from Lester before he fades into a back of the staff pitcher. 

 

The Sox fooled themselves with a pennant in 2013. Even when things went wrong (example: two closers injured) they went right (Uehara). In 2014 everything went wrong. I have a wait and see attitude on Ramirez and Sandoval (in the long run). I've seen two desirable pitchers in Lester and Smardzija slip away. They were outbid on Miller. Other teams are looking for pitching too.

 

I'm holding phase one of judgement until I see the opening day roster. I'm holding phase two until July 4th to see if Ramirez is on the DL.

RJM,

 

1) Exactly.  Front office screwed the pooch.  Lucchinorized.

 

2) Yes they did for 6 years/$155M.  The sixth year is the tough part to swallow but the Sox could have got him for 5 years if they had a clue in how to negotiate (before his walk year) which clearly they don't.. 5 years would have been palatable.

 

3) Agreed.  2013 was a World Series title despite the Front Office's arrogance.  They didn't realize how lucky they were.

 

I hate to say it but the Red Sox are beginning to resemble the dysfunctional NY Yankee front office of yesteryear (Steinbrenner years).  It is very disturbing.

Dodger just pulled off a brilliant trade, Dee Gordon to the Marlins for top pitching prospect Heaney, and they shipped off Dan Haren. There's speculation that the Dodgers are acquiring young players so they can flip them in a deal for Cole Hamels, which is an intriguing thought — especially considering Heaney's pedigree. 

 

They also picked up Rollins as a place holder for next year.

 

It pays to have smart people running your organization.