How can you tell?

In my opinion, playing high level competition will give you a pretty good idea of where he stands. PG and other events also have qualified scouts that assess players for a living.

Also, there are both reputable and not so reputable paid instructors and remember that they do have skin in the game.

Just one man's opinion - I hope that it helps.  

Best wishes to your son!

A player usually knows deep down.  Not always true for parents.

I believe in setting very high goals.  I never consider trying to reach them as a waste of time. There are players in the Big Leagues that many scouts didn't like.  They just went out and proved everyone wrong.  They could have listened and quit wasting their time, but they didn't. I absolutely love it when we are proven wrong because it renews my faith in young people. Of course, I also like it when we are right. Luckily that is usually the case.

It's often said that its all about the journey.  I believe that!

Great question justbb.  Really thought provoking.

I actually think there are many  parts to it.  The first is identifying those who can exceed expectations.  The second is getting  an athlete who can exceed expectations to appreciate that ability, and have each of those aspects be  coupled with coaching  to their ceiling.

Yesterday I was listening to Coach Scannell of Trinity speak at the awarding of their CWS rings.  Some of his comments readily illustrated the "friction" which can be created by a coach who sees more in a player and drives and forces that player to beat  the odds to get where he never expected to be, and then move up from there. Necessarily, I think some of this comes from great coaches who have the ability to connect, coach and motivate. Necessarily, I think some who never achieve to their ceiling have that result from the "friction" and the frustration which comes from that "friction" or "tension."

Sometimes it starts with the player, but something comes from outside which creates that drive.  Luke Maye seems to be a great example of a player who was truly impacted by his teams 2016 loss, the heartbreak created by that loss and the words of Coach Williams about the hurt and using those feelings to improve and exceed all expectations.

Consultant very often refers to the 6th tool.  Personally, I tend to think most coaches are challenged to  get a player who does not have that 6th tool to their ceiling and especially beyond that ceiling. They can play at a high level, but never get toward their ceiling.

While I agree with HSHULER that scouts can identify players with upside, I strongly believe there is a special talent or "gift" in both the player and coaching relationship in being able to identify the player with that higher ceiling and then coaching them  to and, many times, beyond that ceiling.

One common theme, for me at least, is players who exceed expectations  are very often driven toward a higher ceiling by a failure or a negative in the form of an extreme loss or disappointment.  In college baseball and beyond, I would tend to speculate that a "failure" is a common theme between those who use that as the tool and motivation to exceed projections and those who end up failing to do so and succumbing to the failure and whatever that involves.

Why do kids play Baseball?

Because they love it.  I suppose some play mostly because they are really good at it, but most play because they love it.

if they are playing in order to get some free college, well that is just plain stupid!  There aren't many scholarships available in Baseball.  Much easier to get academic scholarships or do rowing or some other sport than Baseball.

Ultimately working very hard to try to excel is the lesson in itself and can apply itself to everything else in life.

There are points along the Baseball journey that tell the story:

how they compete in Perfect Game showcases is a big part of it.

Scouts at Perfect Game & PBR can tell part of the story.  How a player competes against players who are     going to play at the next level is another part of the story. 

How early does a kid make Varsity in High School?  That can be telling, but it is relative.  Some kids are just early developers.  It is also tougher to make Varsity in California than, say, North Dakota.

i wouldn't trust a paid instructor.  Most of those guys just want to keep making money.

if Perfect Game says they aren't a college prospect, and PBR says they aren't a college prospect and zero recruiters are calling and the kid is a Senior in high school, it might not be happening.

Before that?  Keep grinding

I played D1 baseball. My daughter played D1 softball. But heading into high school something in my gut told me my son was not a D1 baseball prospect. He was an awesome athlete. But his swing was inconsistent against top pitching. I figured he would play at a top academic, ranked D3. There was a player and his dad from of one of these schools promoting my son to that program very early. At that point they were selling he could play nine positions. 

When he was asked to play for top showcase teams my attitude started to shift. Then one of the travel assistants/former D1 coach/current MLB scout told me with some tweaks he sees pro potential. That's when it became about playing D1. He started junior year hitting .857 after three weeks. I was sold we weren't winging it. 

Then he tore up his knee. He recovered without surgery. But with that and a foot injury junior year he knew college was the last stop given speed was a major part of his game. 

First, athletic talent is God given. You can improve what God gives you, but there are limitations. 

Second, to get to college, regardless of talent, it is the extra drive/desire and work ethic. 

Third, once you get to college mental strength is the big differentiation. 

All of the players from my son's HS team that went on to play in college, every one of them, was always at the field after practice, or weekends getting extra work in. That was the single separator from HS to college.

My son was talking to me about the mental aspects last time I visited him and he said this was something he did not realize how important it was until after he had left the game. For example, one pitcher he played with who is all over the all time best list at Trinity actually had "crappy stuff" compared to other top pitchers during his time there. He said he was so tough mentally that he would just not let anyone beat him, no matter what was going on. 

Last year we took 2018 to several camps at all levels so he could get to know different size of schools and where he was comfortable, but also see what level his skills fit. He pitched at his first D1 camp. After three pitches, three coaches came out to the mound to talk to him, watch him, etc. The pitching coach gave him his business card and said he would be in touch. Before we left, one of the coaches visited with us and asked what schools he was interested in. I said "well, we're really trying to figure out where his skills fit and if he should be looking at D1, D2 or what."

The coach looked at me like I was an idiot and said. "He fits in D1, he fits in here. We want him to come here.

We drove to a nearby McDonald's in complete silence. Got inside, and son and I both stood there for a minute and son said. "Mom, I need to sit down. I always thought I could do it, but this is the first time somebody else said I could do it too, and I really can't breath right now."

A very cool moment. 

Do you know the names, Sam Fuld, Aaron Hill, Albert Pujois, Adam Laroche, Torii Hunter.

and 200 other MLB players who I invited to our Area Code tryouts, because no scout Selected the players from their HS performances. They also played in our Goodwill Series International. 

All had the 6th tool. "Learn the game". Ask questions. 

Bob

Iowamom23 posted:

Last year we took 2018 to several camps at all levels so he could get to know different size of schools and where he was comfortable, but also see what level his skills fit. He pitched at his first D1 camp. After three pitches, three coaches came out to the mound to talk to him, watch him, etc. The pitching coach gave him his business card and said he would be in touch. Before we left, one of the coaches visited with us and asked what schools he was interested in. I said "well, we're really trying to figure out where his skills fit and if he should be looking at D1, D2 or what."

The coach looked at me like I was an idiot and said. "He fits in D1, he fits in here. We want him to come here.

We drove to a nearby McDonald's in complete silence. Got inside, and son and I both stood there for a minute and son said. "Mom, I need to sit down. I always thought I could do it, but this is the first time somebody else said I could do it too, and I really can't breath right now."

A very cool moment. 

Very cool indeed. That's what it's all about right there!

Yes, Iowa Mom.  What a great moment. Thanks for sharing.

There is no downside in trying unless you neglect school and other things in your pursuit. Hard work doesn't mean you make it but it gives you a chance to reach your genetic limit wherever that may be.

justbaseball brings up a good point and conversely , this is a good thread. The first thing I need to know about evaluating my sons talent is that I'm the wrong guy to do it. I can not evaluate my sons talent.....No way.

As my son progressed thru HS ball a couple of things became clear. He played on one of the top travel teams in the country and he got to see what real talent looks like. He played along side several '16 draft guys and top tier D1 commits. He saw what really gifted players look like. He wasn't the best player on his travel team and THAT was good for him. And early as a rising Junior he was offered from a D1 in the south

Late last May his HS coach got a call from a supervisor from MLB scouting bureau asking about him and requesting his cell number. Scout called him and asked him if he'd be willing to do a private Pre-Draft workout . He of course agreed and showed up at a local University in Southern California 10 days before the '16 MLB draft. There was him and 3 College guys. The scout and the University HC and a assistant worked them out from 8 am till noon. The scout asked my son if he'd sign if picked in lower round of the draft with future College money guaranteed. Son said he wasn't sure. Draft day came and went and he was not selected but it was a great experience and a clear indicator of where he was talent wise.

Pro ball doesn't mess around...You get a true uncut eval of your skill set.

This topic reminds me of a terrific quote from Arizona State Head Coach Tracy Smith :

" If you go out on the field , get real quiet and listen real closely.....The game will tell you exactly where you belong "

Great story IowaMom23!  I know what you mean to be at McDonald's when something like that has happened.

I just believed in my son.  I could tell with my own eyes.  Luck also plays a role. 

Nobody is ever sure however until someone makes an offer.  Even then you are not sure because then you have to go out and beat someone out who is equally or better talented.  It's a game of musical chairs among talented players of similar abilities - athletic Darwinism if you will.  Only when you are left seated when the music stops playing are you ever really sure.    

justbaseball posted:

I was thinking about the Luke Maye story...and my own kids stories, and wondering how can you tell when your kid has a legitimate chance to exceed expectations and you should encourage them to take their shot....or when have they 'earned' it even though you think they're probably over-reaching....and how do you know when to tell them to set their sights a little lower cause you're quite certain they will waste their time?

These are not easy questions!!

I can think of one way we tried to get at answers and that was to get other opinions from trusted people...without skin in the game (i.e. a paid instructor might have too much skin in the game)

I always thought I just need truthful information - I would know what to do if I had it, but I just need the truth.  But how do you find it?

Thoughts?

My current, likely naive plan, is to let my 2020 try what he wants to try. I want him to try every which way he can try to fulfill his dream so he never says "If only I had....".  It's not MY dream so I have no idea how bad he wants it or what he is willing to do to get it.  Guess we will see. 

Easy!  I knew that my 2020 had "IT" 3 years ago, when he hit a 200' BOMB over the fence and made it around the bags w/o tripping!  Ok, all kidding aside, whether or not a kid has "it" to play at the highest levels, every kid has "it" to push themselves to play at the highest level that they can.  For some that will be playing varsity baseball, some will play D3, 2 or D1 and some VERY select few will play professionally.  All I know is that my son loves the game, loves the work it takes to get better and competes harder than almost everyone else on the field.  He is serious about getting stronger, faster and perfecting his baseball skills.  I encourage, but don't push.  I will be a happy spectator and his biggest fan for as long as this ride lasts, and when he does hang-em up, I know that the lessons he learned and work ethic he is developing will serve him well in life.

"When you're good at something, you'll tell everyone. When you are great at something, they will tell you." Walter Payton

Iowamom23 posted:

Last year we took 2018 to several camps at all levels so he could get to know different size of schools and where he was comfortable, but also see what level his skills fit. He pitched at his first D1 camp. After three pitches, three coaches came out to the mound to talk to him, watch him, etc. The pitching coach gave him his business card and said he would be in touch. Before we left, one of the coaches visited with us and asked what schools he was interested in. I said "well, we're really trying to figure out where his skills fit and if he should be looking at D1, D2 or what."

The coach looked at me like I was an idiot and said. "He fits in D1, he fits in here. We want him to come here.

We drove to a nearby McDonald's in complete silence. Got inside, and son and I both stood there for a minute and son said. "Mom, I need to sit down. I always thought I could do it, but this is the first time somebody else said I could do it too, and I really can't breath right now."

A very cool moment. 

Thanks for sharing that....good luck to your son.

I agree with just about everything on this thread except one thing.  PG said the player usually knows it's the parents who don't. In our case maybe we are the exception but I think my son is completely delusional. I must tell him at least once a week "if this is your dream then you need to work harder - if it's not then let me know and we can start campimg and fishing again". Problem is he has faced only a small amount of really good teams. Our parent coaches over the last couple years have been far more interested in building their record than facing top competition.  Things have come too easy to him on the mound. This year (15u) we finally get an organization coach and he is a good one. Playing not quite the top top competition but close. Playing mostly 16u on top of it. We are going to get killed a lot.  That's ok. I keep warning him that for the first time in his life he's going to experience what it's like to go 2 1/3 innings giving up 7 runs on 9 hits. Then we will learn something about his character. Will he bounce back?  He blows me off like I am crazy.  Confidence is great...  to a point.  We will learn this year if he has a future.  Agree with Shu.  Top level competition will show you all you need to know. 

Great question.  My son is a D1 pitcher....6'1, 180 now....but he was 5'3, 110 when he was a freshman.  Threw hard for his size (upper 70's) and started at SS on HS varsity.  He knew since he was 5 that he wanted to play college baseball....and D1 was his only option...even early in HS he never considered anything less.  By the end of his sophomore year he had attended a couple D1 camps that winter....no offers...but a little interest.  The following spring I went to watch a game in the league he eventually ended up in.  He was busy and didn't know I went.  I basically wanted to see "if" I thought he could play at that level.  The game went 13-11, 28 hits, 10 walks, 6 errors and was just an all around fiasco.  I went home and told him "hey, if you want to play there, I think you can handle it...let's make it happen".  Fortunately it did.  After committing, I jokingly mentioned someday getting drafted....which he laughed off hysterically considering he was 87-88 max at the time.  Now he has been up to 92....regularly is 90 and has mentioned the "pro day" coming up this fall a couple times.  He played for a former MiLB pitcher last summer who has worked with guys who have gotten drafted...and I think he convinced my son he has a shot.  Would he go if drafted?? No idea....and of course a lot would depend on where he's drafted and the $$$$ but at this point, I think he'd be thrilled just to hear his name called.  I guess to answer your question.......I don't think there is an easy answer.....when he's ready, you'll know.  That's what we were told when he was younger...and that's kind of how it eventually worked out. 

.......or it could have been when he started sleeping with one of those big fat plastic whiffle ball bats when he was 3 

One thing has been proven time and time again.

It is extremely difficult to know for sure what your children are capable of accomplishing.  Also sometimes hard to know what they are unable to do.

The number of surprises  (both ways) is well documented. Sometimes the sure shots fail and the long shots succeed. Good reason to stay humble.

ClevelandDad posted:

 

Nobody is ever sure however until someone makes an offer.  Even then you are not sure because then you have to go out and beat someone out who is equally or better talented.  It's a game of musical chairs among talented players of similar abilities - athletic Darwinism if you will.  Only when you are left seated when the music stops playing are you ever really sure.    

Love it...  I would add... the music never really stops playing until the cleats and glove get packed away for good.

GREAT topic, JBB! And definitely, as you said, not an easy one.

BTW, HShuler, for reference, JBB has two sons in the pro ranks currently if I'm not mistaken. So, he has certainly been down the full road as much as anyone. But he is generous enough to continue bringing insight here and occasionally throwing out these thought-provoking topics.

Of my three kids, the youngest son was the only to pursue sports beyond HS. He is currently a college senior and would certainly be considered by most to be an over-achiever in baseball.

I tend to be very pragmatic in my parenting and coaching approach. As I think through how I have guided my own kids through their career direction, this certainly applies. However, when it comes to the youngest, his lofty goals were in the arena of my specific interest and passion (sports/baseball). So, for him, I was much more careful to walk that fine line as to not disrupt his far-reaching dream and at the same time, keep him grounded with reality. I struggled with this often. His size/ skill set did not equate to beyond college and, at some point late HS or early college, I think he was able to figure that out.  But his 6th tool could play anywhere and that kept the dream in play.  I think, with the kids I coach, I tend to be even more pragmatic with directing those with next-level aspirations (so that I can provide sound recruiting path advise) but I still try to allow for (positive or negative) 6th tool and growth potential.  

I think so much of this process applies to all career / schooling / athletic / philanthropic / arts decisions we go through with our kids as well.  Is it a pipe dream?  Is it a far but reachable goal?  Should it/ could it be a career?  How do we advise our kids?  Bringing knowledgeable outsiders with personal distance for a pragmatic viewpoint has much merit and should always be part of these big decisions.  But also, someone close to the person (parents/ close advisors) should factor in heart, work ethic, passion, street-smarts, ability to push through obstacles, competitive nature, etc. (6th tool).   I think it is important to take interest in each of our kids' interests and take lead on the "believer" team.   With both sides covered at the detail level, smart decisions can be made.  Usually.  I don't know.  It's still hard.  

cabbagedad posted:

GREAT topic, JBB! And definitely, as you said, not an easy one.

BTW, HShuler, for reference, JBB has two sons in the pro ranks currently if I'm not mistaken. So, he has certainly been down the full road as much as anyone. But he is generous enough to continue bringing insight here and occasionally throwing out these thought-provoking topics.

Of my three kids, the youngest son was the only to pursue sports beyond HS. He is currently a college senior and would certainly be considered by most to be an over-achiever in baseball.

I tend to be very pragmatic in my parenting and coaching approach. As I think through how I have guided my own kids through their career direction, this certainly applies. However, when it comes to the youngest, his lofty goals were in the arena of my specific interest and passion (sports/baseball). So, for him, I was much more careful to walk that fine line as to not disrupt his far-reaching dream and at the same time, keep him grounded with reality. I struggled with this often. His size/ skill set did not equate to beyond college and, at some point late HS or early college, I think he was able to figure that out.  But his 6th tool could play anywhere and that kept the dream in play.  I think, with the kids I coach, I tend to be a bit more pragmatic with directing those with next-level aspirations (so that I can provide sound recruiting path advise) but I still try to allow for (positive or negative) 6th tool and growth potential.  

I think so much of this process applies to all career / schooling / athletic / philanthropic / arts decisions we go through with our kids as well.  Is it a pipe dream?  Is it a far but reachable goal?  Should it/ could it be a career?  How do we advise our kids?  Bringing knowledgeable outsiders with personal distance for a pragmatic viewpoint has much merit and should always be part of these big decisions.  But also, someone close to the person (parents/ close advisors) should factor in heart, work ethic, passion, street-smarts, ability to push through obstacles, competitive nature, etc. (6th tool).   I think it is important to take interest in each of our kids' interests and take lead on the "believer" team.   With both sides covered at the detail level, smart decisions can be made.  Usually.  I don't know.  It's still hard.  

Overheard someone say a while ago, it's everyone else's job to tell him how good he is but it's my job to keep him humble.  I liked that philosophy so have sort of lived by it. Most of the time the plain simple truth is dose of humility.  If I can't be truthful with my own kid, that's a parenting issue. So, I encourage and support but I also give him the truth as I see it.

I have a 2020 with big dreams and I don't mind that...dream away...but my job is to always provide perspective and truth.  Example: "You like that school? Well, here are the kinds of grades and ACT scores that you'll need." I'm a parent that shamelessly uses sports or whatever as a reward for certain behaviors. He loves sports enough to be respectful to adults and other kids, to make good grades and to do his required chores because he knows if he doesn't, no sports.

So, how can you tell? I don't think anyone can "definitely" tell but certain behaviors (hard work, good luck, good decisions, etc.) are required for them to give themselves a legitimate shot. The single reason that I overly stress hard work is so no matter what happens he can look himself in the mirror and say that I did my best. 

Kids show early that they have a few tools.  Some are really strong for their size.  Some are just super fast.  Some kids have a great arm.  I coached a 12 year old who has a complete cannon of an arm, he doesn't know how he does it, he just can throw really hard.  Some kids have elite hand/eye coordination.  Some kids are cutthroat competitive.

Not many kids have all those tools fairly naturally.

The question then becomes, how, hard are they willing to work to develop more of the missing tools?  Work ethic remains a difference maker, to a large degree.

Yeah, some kids hit all the check marks with high scores.  Tools/talent, body, passion, work ethic, competitor, head for the game.  With those kids, it's just not that difficult (except late bloomers).  But most are lacking in one area or another or have just "pretty good" marks across the board.  That's when it's tough.

Well....Unless the sport REALLY isn't your childs sport, I would never tell him to give up that is for sure!

My son has perfect vision and really quick reflexes.  He rarely strikes out.  That gives me reason  to believe that, with some size and power he should be able to play in college, SOMEWHERE.  For him its about one more year, one more team, one more game.   Ive always told  him that his effort needs to match what ever goals he wants.  He practices non stop and tries to perfect his position so who am I to dash any hopes of playing college ball?

IMO

I knew at 4 he was more coordinated than his team mates  in Tball, but then again we weren't on the "top" t ball team. He was the only kid who could hit a tossed ball, throw it with any accuracy and and oh yeah, catch a tossed ball.

Once again up to about 12, he was good but not in the top of his group. Then the other boys hit their growth spurt at 13-14 and his tools, strength and skills were diminished further as he wasn't as big. He was passed over for the bigger boys.

During his sophomore year he stepped up and began to pitch well......once again good but not near the top of his group.

Then he hit the weight room with a purpose and commitment I had never seen before. Spring of Jr. year he was 90-93 and the rest is history. Still not a big kid, smallest pitcher at on roster at his college and only 2 other players are shorter on his whole team. 

His God given talents were always there, he has been learning to master them and continues to do so.

Be patient with your kids and let them play, Lord knows I wasn't a great parent at times and have many regrets but fortunately we came thru it okay and we still hug after every game. 

We started our son playing so he could use up all that extra energy he had and turned out he fell in love with the game. He liked the idea of running after balls, playing in the grass and making new friends. Ten years later  things are still the same, playing in the outfield  chasing ball in the grass and he still love the game!  IMO that's how you tell...

Talent separates itself...basketballers say " Game recognizes Game". That means that if you play against elite talent YOU  will know they are elite and THEY will know you are leite and all will respect each others abilities. 

Compete against the best available talent. Do well. Then compete against better talent. You will find your level this way quickly. Once your level is found , work like hell to get to the next level. When you look up you will know exactly where you belong.

If you are unwilling to put in the work to get to the "next level" then you dont simply have IT. You have potential that will forever go unused.

I've always told my son to shoot for the highest level he thinks he can attain, work hard, have fun, and things will sort themselves out. He's a late bloomer and got overlooked by a lot of coaches, and even his fellow teammates seemed to underestimate him. But next year he's playing college ball -- the only senior on his high school team to make it through. 

nxt lvl posted:

Compete against the best available talent. Do well. Then compete against better talent. You will find your level this way quickly. Once your level is found , work like hell to get to the next level. When you look up you will know exactly where you belong.

If you are unwilling to put in the work to get to the "next level" then you dont simply have IT. You have potential that will forever go unused.

 

I think that is very smart advice

BOF that is an outstanding post.

I have a friend so close we're like brothers. We were each other's best man. My wife asked how we can possibly be friends. We're so different.

He had as much potential talent as any pitcher I've played with and against. But he lacked the extra effort and confidence. He was an excuse maker. He always saw the dark side. The glass was half empty. If he ran the count to 2-0 he started to fear he would walk a hitter and groove a pitch. It cost him early opportunities in high school. It caused him to fail in college ball. I've watched the same attitude hold him back all his life.

A "woe is me" attitude doesn't work on the field or in life. You have to be in control. You need the sixth tool on the field and in life.