How close are they to becoming Major Leaguers?

I think the movie "The Prospect" may address some of your questions.. IMHO most minor leaguers have talent and project to play in the bigs IF they continue to grow and develope as projected.
When they stop improving they stop being a prospect.
As for being ready to go right to the bigs few players do, but I believe Zimmerman that was drafted last yr by the Nationals was in MLB by the end of the year.

njbb, very nice summary. Think you have things analyzed very well. From the things I have read, it seems the biggest challenge and the place the largest percentage of players end up failing in the transition to AA. Might differ between organizations but AA ball seems to end a lot of careers.

Infielddad, Do you know where your son will be playing this season?

njbb, we are still hoping there will be a place for him. With his draft position, he does not have an agent. Seems almost impossible to get any information on your status without one.
Does Chris have any impressions? Based on his year in the Pioneer league, seems pretty sure he will be starting around April 7 and looking forward to that 144 game schedule!. Please keep me updated with how Spring training progresses for him. We will hope for the best...for both of them.

shoot, i have an agent, and still have no clue where im gonna end up this year. I'm hoping the mid-west league. But extended ST is a possibility too. Agents seem to be less helpful after the draft. But no matter where i end up im happy.

Nothing definite on where Chris will be sent this season. He is looking forward to the long season.

The following player was a senior during my son's sophomore year of high school varsity play in Texas class 4A. He went direct to the Houston Astros Rookie League straight out of high school. By choosing to do so, he missed out on spending his freshman year on Rice's College World Series Championship season. He cruised at 92mph, but could hit 94 in late innings. Below are his 2005 stats (team lead with innings pitched) with the Astro's Class A Affiliate Salem Avalanche.
Chance Douglass: Individual Stats (Pitching)
W: 12, L: 9
ERA 2.90
G 27, IP 167.2
It will be interesting to see if he makes the move up.

Do you have any other info on him such as what pitches he throws, how good his control and pitch movement?

And this brings me to another question. Do players move up through the minors based on that years performance, stats, or skill increase? Like what if a player was gaining a little more power and increasing his fielding skills towards the end of the season, but he didn't hit for as much average that year, would he start at the next level or stay at his current place?

quote:

Originally posted by Mr3000:
And this brings me to another question. Do players move up through the minors based on that years performance, stats, or skill increase? Like what if a player was gaining a little more power and increasing his fielding skills towards the end of the season, but he didn't hit for as much average that year, would he start at the next level or stay at his current place?

Unfortunately, someone inside professional baseball like bbscout would have to provide solid, legitimate information. Looking in from the outside, I have developed some observations.
First, the way minor leaguers progress is different within organizations for sure. For those who emphasize college players, they make decisions much differently than those which emphasize high schoolers in the draft.
Draft position also makes a difference. If you are a high pick out of college, you will get pushed to see where you begin to fail. As you have success at a level, you likely will get a promotion to continue to challenge.
For others, promotions seem to be less predictable. They seem to be based on performance, position, depth in the organization and, I assume, how the organization has you projected.
For those drafted out of high school, development, confidence and learning how to be a professional seem to be much more important. Organizations have much more patience and seem to leave players at levels much longer. For high schoolers, from what little I see and know, development rather that pure stats seems to be far more important in opportunities for promotion.

Mr3000,
Saw Chance, his mom & little brother at dinner last Friday night which triggered me to respond to your post. I haven't seen him pitch since his junior & senior years (3 years now). During the senior season, he could spot the 90-92+ mph fastball & mostly low in the zone. He had confidence to pitch inside. He had a good change, but his curve was great. After throwing a fastball, he could follow with a curve at the head of right-hand batters and it would break late & in for a strike. Many batters, as you would expect, after seeing & hearing the pop of the fastball, couldn't stand firm in the box looking at what appears to be a fastball coming at your ear, only to hear a strike called after a curveball drops into the zone.

I bet the Houston Astro minor league coaches have since added to his arsenal as well as added movement to the fastball. I hope he moves up quickly so I can see him pitch, sooner than later. I did learn that Chance was introduced at a Houston Astro game following his minor league team's best pitcher stats.

Amarillo's Chance Douglass update.
Saw on our local news last week regarding Chance getting the call up to the AA Corpus Christi Hooks. Just checked tonight and I see where he made his first mound appearance vs San Antonio. Rough first outing, but look for great things from this Texas Panhandle gun-slinger. He had a slow start at the A level before finishing at the top as listed on my Jan 10 post.

Good luck to Chance. It is great to see players make it from the smaller cities & towns from around the nation.

Amarillo's Chance Douglass update.
Read in our local paper today, Friday March 30 the following:

Former Randall High pitching standout Chance Douglass received good news this week when he was assigned to open the minor league season with the Houston Astros Triple-A squad in Round Rock. Douglass is a 2002 graduate of Randall and spent last season in Double-A with Corpus Chrisit. Douglass spent his offseason in Amarillo, holding pitching camps for youth players.

Good luck Chance from fans in the Panhandle. The next level may now be in reach.

Amarillo's Chance Douglass looks to be on schedule to get the ball, Mon. 9th vs Omaha Royals.

If any posters make the game (if & when) Chance takes the rubber, please post your thoughts.

Here's another example but this time the pitcher was not throwing 90's in high school.

A good friend of mine's son threw 84 - 88 in high school and was drafted in the late rounds most likely attributed to his 6' 4 " lanky frame. In junior college he gained a few miles an hour and was drafted around round 20. He didn't sign and went to a 4 year school and started throwing a little harder. He continued to fill out and was a 12th round pick and signed.

Three years ago was his first year of pro ball and he was touching low 90's and continued improving his offspeed. Since then he has continued to fill out and is mentally tough. Some time during the past year, everything started clicking together due to his hard work and some coaches at the upper level who improved his mechanics. He was able to add a few miles more miles an hour and has a plus offspeed. Now he throws mid 90's and can get it near 100 (at least when the weather's above 55). The club has moved him to the pen.

After just 2 years in the minors and still just 24 he made his major league debut last week. So far he has 2 appearances and didn't give up a run. Although he led the bullpen in era during spring training, he was just optioned to AAA to make room for a player coming off the dl.

I guess one of the morals of the story is that you don't have to throw a blazing fastball in high school to get drafted, the scouts just need to think you eventually might. Many times this projectability doesn't pan out, this time it did.

I found it interesting to see that some of the big name pitchers from the college ranks were still in the minors to start the year. Miller is in High A, Pelfrey and Hochevar are in AA.

I was trying to think who was the last college starter to start the year after they were drafted in the majors? It may have been Prior.

Kinda sobering, ain't it, deldad?

signed in 05, but progressing well

D'Back's Owings MLB debut

wonder if the Cubs regret not signing him for a song in 04?

I heard something, not sure if it is true, maybe someone can expand.
Most ready for the big step to MLB don't go through AAA anymore, not sure why, but that seems to be the trend.
The discussion came about for the pitcher that was moved today or yesterday from , I think high A right to MLB, Marlins.
Another thing not sure if it is true, most who move from college to MLB the same year and back down again, do so for justification in their signing bonus package.

Deldad

Did Mike Pelfrey get promoted already?? I just saw him pitch this past Sat. night @ Tradition Field in Port St Lucie. He has several plus pitches and pitched like he was on a rehab assignment ready to move up, IMHO. peace shep

Mike Pelfrey-RHP(St Lucie Mets) April 7, of 2007

95MPH-Don't blink hitter!

Shepster may have got it wrong, the point was that these guys were a step or two away from the majors, after stellar college careers. Just noting along the lines of this thread that even the best college pitchers are a level or two away from the majors.

SHEPSTER

For a supposed experienced scout it is surprising to see your posts--they are bringing the Pelfrey kid along slowly---they do not need him yet--- I am beginning to wonder what your opinion means--we can all read the press clippings

I am with deldad-- the jump from the college level to the bigs is huge---and again I ask this: are we rushing these kids

About 29 other MLB teams want him though He's ready now for #3,#4 or #5 for "many" rotations. Only one problem TR, he's protected on the 40 man roster as is Phil Humber. These guys "NYMs Brass" aren't gonna let another team have these pitchers and beat them out of a pennant!

TR, you're just looking at it from a Shea-ster point of view

You are aware that Mike Pelfrey was named as #5 starter by Randolph last year and has a 2-1 win/loss
in the show already.

He is also a seasoned Wichita State starter with "much" success in college before being drafted in the 1st round and fast-tracking to show last year. As is Phil Humber, 1st rounder out of another great program, Rice University. peace shep

In the next 24 hours Pelfry is coming up and Lastings is going down---this way Lastings get needed at bats rather than sit and Pelfry will get an outing or two and then probably return


As for Humber lets see how his arm come along

Shep you might want to talk with Andy who argued with me about Pedroia becoming the Red Sox next second sacker-- he said it would never happen--I may be a Mets fan but I am a bigger BASEBALL FAN and understand the game perhaps better than most

Thank you TRHit and yes I do also think you are "very intelligent and an excellent baseball person who helps many, many kids."

As far as the rushing of kids up to the show, I think you may also have a very good point there as well but you do have to figure in college experience if the player so chooses that risky route with only 2 percent of HS players drafted ever receiving anything remotely close to that amount after three years in college. Not sure about the JUCO drafts in money differential after HS offers but do know for a fact it is much lower!

Peace TR HIT, Shep Cares

SHEPSTER

Where did you opening quote come from---I wasn't talking about anything other perhaps knowing a bit more about the game of baseball than you want to give me credit for---nowhere did I talk about what our program does---I was talking about my own knowledge and understanding of the game--nothing more and nothing less

quote:

by Shepster - but you do have to figure in college experience if the player so chooses that risky route with only 2 percent of HS players drafted ever receiving anything remotely close to that amount after three years in college. Not sure about the JUCO drafts in money differential after HS offers but do know for a fact it is much lower!

Shep,
That is twice now that you posted that 2% statistic. I am totally confused and think this would make for a good discussion.

Here's my problem...

+ means they received more than previously. – means they received less.
2006 draft 1st rd and supplemental 1st rd.
+ Luke Hochevar
+ Greg Reynolds
+ Evan Longoria
+ Brad Lincoln
+ Brandon Morrow
+ Andrew Miller
+ Drew Stubbs
+ Tim Lincecum
+ Max Scherzer
+ Tyler Colvin
+ Matt Antonelli
+ Brett Sinkbeil
+ Ian Kennedy
+ Avery Morris
+ Daniel Bard
+ Kyle McColloch
+ Adam Ottovino
+ Pedro Beato
+ Emanuel Burris
+ Brooks Brown
+ Chris Couglan
+ David Huff
+ Kris Johnson
+ Joba Chamberlain
+ Chris Perez
- No One!

All others were HS kids in the top 44 picks (1st rd and Comp 1st rd) and I believe they all signed.

So out of the top 25 college kids who were drafted last year all 25 increased their value (greatly) over any previous offer.

Someone can continue this if they care to spend a lot of time, but here’s the point. There are about 800 picks (just guessing because don’t have time to research it) each year out of colleges. \

If 2% were receiving less money than their previous offer that would account for 2% of 800 = 16 players. If half of those college players actually sign it would be 2% of 400 = 8 players.

I just listed 25 players above and that accounted for 25 out of 25 or 100% who received more out of college.

Shep, would you please explain where that 2% figure is coming from. I saw where you used it before and must admit, I’m totally confused by that 2% figure! There are a lot of people who visit here that are searching for helpful information. If we are going to throw numbers around they should be accurate and meaningful.

I do understand that numbers can be different depending on one’s point of view or point of emphasis. This could lead to some interesting discussion and research that could become valuable knowledge to many here.

quote:

I’m totally confused by that 2% figure

Shep can be confusing sometimes

from his statements above & in the past it seems he's advising his clients & potential clients via message board that college baseball is a "risky" route & a loosing deal money wise

How could anyone possibly know what every player who did not sign turned down as a last offer? Pure made up agent gibberish.

The early draft picks who don't sign probably are gambling, but most early picks sign (or heads tend to roll in scouting departments)

There are three fairly recent first round picks I can think of who did not sign and went to college.

They all three signed for more money out of college than their first offer. Anyway, as the first offer was reported.

Jeremy Sowers 1st rd HS, 1st rd College
John Mayberry Jr 1st rd HS, 1st rd College
Adam Loewen 1st rd HS, signed for more money after one year JC.

One thing to keep in mind, is lots of players get drafted out of HS (who knows the actual offer, if any?) and then never get drafted again. These players would affect the percentages, but for the most part we wouldn't be talking about a lot of money offered the first time. However, I guess if they turned down $1,000 and then didn't get drafted out of college... They would be someone who didn't receive as big an offer out of college. Then again, these are probably the kids who made the exact right choice the first time!

I don't think we should hang Shep here... There could be a good explanation involving those statistics. I for one, would welcome as much info as possible. I think Shep would too. Heck, it was brought up, let's figure it out.

Shep has a tendency to "rave" about players that perhaps he has not even seen

He also throws out numbers on the internet without substantiating them---yes he can be confusing but I have to wonder at times

Do you "hype" a player you have not seen at least a few times? I cannot speak for others but I know I won't.

There are times I get called on the carpet here for talking about kids who play for us---well I know them real well and talk with authority about them--I cannot do that with others

Personally I would be leery of taking a player for our team on the recommendation from someone who has not seen the player in action a few times.

I'll gladly apologize if I am incorrect, but I get a little antsy when statistics are substituted for purely wishful and baseless speculation to further an agenda to manipulate starry-eyed teenagers for profit.

Dad04,

You are not alone!

But you have more patience.....

PG has more patience than I do---that is for sure

Actually, PG is not that patient.

Anyone ever heard of a prospect named Sanjaya Malakar?

PG just will not cut that kid any slack

Hey it's Friday the 13th and just couldn't resist that one

not trying to hang ol Shep, just trying to learn something by observing and asking questions

often he brings valuable insite to a topic


tho sometimes he shows up on a horse - under a big ol tree ... with a rope

CD dog dude dog man, I gotta go with my main man PG on this one. Naawww Maaannnn, it just didn't do it for me either. I'm not feelin' the Sanjaya cat one bit man. Off you go!

Does that fit under a baseball cap ?

quote:

does that fit under a baseball cap?

they could prolly make it fit