Fielding and Defense in BaseballThis interesting article addresses your question. Defense, or the lack of it, may give us memorable plays (anecdotal evidence) but the statistics (empirical evidence) suggest pitching and hitting still wins most of the the games. Here is an excerpt that may peak your interest.
The average baseball defense will see maybe 4,500 opportunities--"balls in play" as we call them. Assume for discussion that the full-season difference in Fielding Efficiency from average is about plus-or-minus 2% (that is, ranges from 73% to 77% around a major-league average of 75%)--which experience suggests is actually an exaggeration of the team-to-team differences--we would see at the extremes of good and bad team fielding a difference of about 90 baserunners a year. If we take as a crude but passable rule of thumb (derived from experience) that 37% of base runners eventually score, we are suggesting a difference of plus-or-minus 33 runs a year from average to best- or worst-fielding team; that, in turn--from the games-won-from-runs formula--translates to about plus-or-minus three wins a season.Of course, Billy Beane (the subject of Moneyball) is the first to admit that statistical analysis is much more meaningful when applied to a 162 game season. History has shown us the outcome is up for grabs during the relatively short playoffs. Just ask Bill Buckner…