Harper is not a top 10 player in the game right now & is looking for close to half a billion $$ guaranteed. This is the problem.

Is the Nationals deal still on the table for Harper? Somehow, I see this possibly going the same way that Yoenis Cespedes situation with the Mets. Nothing else was out there, back with the Mets.

MidAtlanticDad posted:

K9 posted:

Wow...all this talk had me actually dig into these guys numbers.  In the last 5 seasons Harper has had 3 seasons of less than 1.5 WAR.  Machado's WAR has decreased for 4 straight seasons.  They both had monster years at age 22, but I sure don't want to commit to either guy for 10 years at a record breaking deal.

I don't think the teams who are willing to pay Harper are weighting WAR as high as the more offensive stats. Two of those three years at <=1.5 were impacted by injury (that's a different concern), and the other was hurt by playing 1/3 of his innings in CF (where he doesn't belong). Teams want Harper mostly for his offense, and also his star power.

Machado's WAR was his highest ever in 2018 (6.6 on Baseball-Reference), it was just split between two teams.

I think much of the frenzy is due to their ages. Teams don't often get an opportunity to lock up a young star long-term.

Additionally....

1.  Star power is not factored into WAR.  Star power is putting butts in seats.   Clearly interested front offices are weighting WAR heavier than star power in both cases to date.

2. The frenzy was initiated by their agents two years ago.  You couldn't escape the media hype.  It was ridiculous in the Wash DC market.  Neither had a stellar 2017 or 2018, so their out of this world pricing demands went over like a fart in church.  Front offices aren't biting, and being smart about their money.

3.  Apparently the market has spoken and is passing on this opportunity to lock up young, overhyped stars long term.

If this was my money, I'd be doing the same thing.  It has to be about value and performance.   Both these guys are getting bad advice from their camps and not recognizing what is going on (their real value) in the real business world.  

As always, JMO.

Agent receiving 4% of the Gross is an additional problem.

It's really the agents contact in $$'s the term has no impact for the agent, until it expires.

Pay Da Man, Or NOT

Instead of blaming the owners/GM for colluding, what the agents and players should really do is blame the countless number of players who went before them who got 7-10 year contracts and then clearly made the case that not only do they do not work, they can cripple a franchise for years. 

Look around the league now.  Guys like Pujols, Miggy, Chris Davis, and recently Hosmer have long-term deals that are essentially making it impossible for their teams to compete for the free agents who are on the market.  As an Angels fan, it kills me to see a guy like Trout wasted because Arte Moreno was an absolute idiot and signed Pujols, Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson to long-term deals that were total busts. 

The $87 million the Angels still owe Pujols over the next three years could have been better spent on a pitcher like Keuchel or a catcher/closer combo.  Instead the Angels, who already have a $166 million payroll are shopping in the bargain bin.  This situation plays out in lots of places where there are dead contracts that cannot be moved (or like Seattle require you to give up the best closer in the league and pay some money as well to move Cano).  Yet teams with much lesser payrolls like the Rays and A's have shown you can compete just as well without the mega contracts.

There are too many guys still on rosters now who are poster children for why GMs/owners needed to wake up.  Cubs fans know they are not in on Harper or Machado thanks to the Heyward and Darvish contracts.  Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up.

Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla and Brett Saberhagen.  Bonilla will still be on the payroll when he is 72 

Backstop22 posted:

Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up. 

I'm guessing that he'll wait until his deal is done before he thinks about that. But seriously, there's a lot of talk about the owners wising up, but until those two guys sign the jury is still out on that.

cabbagedad posted:

Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla and Brett Saberhagen.  Bonilla will still be on the payroll when he is 72 

Its a good deal if you can get it!! Staggering actually but he did give back money at the time to extend the life and help them out. I have much less problem with a negotiated plan like this where both sides were aware of what they were doing.

Claiming collusion is just silly when you have overpriced yourself based on what you deem the market should be. I don't even blame them for trying and if they accomplish it - well congrats to you, that is what the market will except. They argument of the owners should pay more solely because they can doesn't work.

Most successful businesses could pay more then they do...

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Backstop22 posted:

Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up. 

I'm guessing that he'll wait until his deal is done before he thinks about that. But seriously, there's a lot of talk about the owners wising up, but until those two guys sign the jury is still out on that.

It does help get guys to stop holding out when an owner (Phillies) says he’s willing to spend stupidly.

Dombrowski says he isn’t interested in Kimbrel. But it’s a game. The word is the Sox are willing to sign him for one or two years. Kimbrel wants long term for 100M. It’s not lost on GM’s he was a scary closer and lost velocity in 2018. You don’t sign a 30yo closer who is losing velocity to a long term contract. 

I see a lot of people here either ignore or fundamentally misunderstand the facts. 

The owners are quite content to do long-term contracts, as long as they're undervalued and retain team control with no opt-out. That is what has been on the table. Harper and Machado have never had a negotiation as MLB players and are looking to use their leverage during one of two (at most) times they will be able to use it. 10/300 is laughable for Harper without an opt-out clause--he is worth more during the front half of the contract, and with the revenue trends, possibly even on the back half even with age regression. We are in an era where because of the current CBA, there are players under team control for over 14 years.

The idea that agents make more by convincing them to hold out is also laughable. Harper signing for, say, 4/140 is going to offer more opportunity for more money over the next ten seasons than the current offer. An opt-out on 10/300 has the same safety valve.

RJM posted:

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Backstop22 posted:

Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up. 

I'm guessing that he'll wait until his deal is done before he thinks about that. But seriously, there's a lot of talk about the owners wising up, but until those two guys sign the jury is still out on that.

It does help get guys to stop holding out when an owner (Phillies) says he’s willing to spend stupidly.

Dombrowski says he isn’t interested in Kimbrel. But it’s a game. The word is the Sox are willing to sign him for one or two years. Kimbrel wants long term for 100M. It’s not lost on GM’s he was a scary closer and lost velocity in 2018. You don’t sign a 30yo closer who is losing velocity to a long term contract. 

fair point on the willingness to hold out based on the comments. I would argue he followed up his words with an offer that is stupid.

One thing to consider, does Harper want to be in spring training for the entire time? It shouldn't / wouldn't take him 6 weeks to get ready for the season. I have to believe he is in shape and ready to go physically, or at least close. It is baseball he will get in full playing shape quickly enough if he is close. From there it is really just about his swing, timing and getting the flow going.

It is possible he isn't in a hurry for more then just trying to maximize his money. 

The term "hold out" is not really accurate. They are free agents and have chosen not to sign at this point. It may be small point but honestly in fairness to the player there is a big difference between being a true "hold out" who is either under a contract he doesn't like or not accepting of the club offer while under control of the CBA and a being a free agent choosing to wait and see what happens. 

Manny gets 10/300. Harper will get more than that.

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Manny gets 10/300. Harper will get more than that.

Can't help but thinking that the Padres can acquire 2-3 really good players for that. They are not a player away. I agree with Mid Atlantic. Bryce Harper is wearing a big smile today.

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

In today’s dollars. #10 in real dollars.  If you account for MLB revenue increases, even lower. 

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

Yelich - seven years, $49.5M

Quintana - five years, $26.5M

Bumgarner - six years, $35.5M

Rizzo - seven years, $42M

Goldschmidt - five years, $32M

Sale - five years, $32.5M

Altuve - four years, $12.5M

Win some, lose some. 

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

Price is only worth the money because his post season efforts got the Red Sox a World Series win. His regular season numbers since joining the Sox and age aren’t worth a superstar contract.

RJM posted:

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

 

I've thought the same thing, but I think that ego gets in the way. A lot of these guys have been coddled for a long time. And then there are the agents. I'd bet more than one agent has spent a lot of time talking a player out of a lesser deal even though the player prefers another organization or city.