I've been wondering how is it that scouts and college recruiters evaluate the hitting tool, particularly in high school age players. It seems that batting average at this level is not useful, in fact most comments on this site suggest that scouts and college recruiters disregard HS stats. So what are they looking for? Mechanics and bat speed can be evaluated, but neither of these indicates whether or not a batter can barrel-up a baseball. I've seen more than a few glowing player profiles and when I look at the hitting video there's nothing but pop ups, weak grounders, and occasional swing-and-miss. I don't get it. From looking at a swing, how do you tell if a kid can hit? Do you have to see the kid against high-level pitching to really know what you are looking at? Thoughts?
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Sound of the ball hitting the wood bat.
Bob
The level of pitching is indeed a factor, but it doesn't have to be a high level of pitching to get a good evaluation.
I would say some common things might be:
Basic Mechanics
Quick Bat Speed
Ability to adjust and still square up the ball
Patience at the plate with aggressiveness to the ball
Ability to hit to opposite field with power
Consistency
Sound of the ball hitting the wood bat.
Bob
. . . or having trouble with the curve.
So what are they looking for?
When you figure this out, PLEASE let us know.
A few years ago, I had a discussion with a MLB team VP.
he mentioned pro scout have two difficulties.
1. Scouting the bat!
2. Scouting the heart - the 6th tool.
During my years with the Area Code games and Goodwill Series, it is important for our teams each play six games or more.
The scouts can evaluate a hitter in this format.
Bob
They have high tech pitching machines that can program pitch type and location. Cant they run batter through a series of BP off that?
Hmmm…sort of what I was expecting, but not what I was hoping for. It seems there is a lot more quantifiable aspects to evaluating pitchers - mechanical things like height, stride, arm slot, not to mention measures like velocity, spin, movement. A bit surprising considering hitting is considered the most important tool. On the other hand, perhaps this is because hitting is more of an art than science (how could you compare Rod Carew to Barry Bonds in any sort of quantifiable way?). This points to the importance, from a HS player's perspective, of playing good competition multiple times in front of scouts or recruiters. This still seems to be the best way (only way?) of being fairly evaluated.
"look for the common tread" of the great hitters.
"Inner arrogance"!
They all knew that they were good hitters. They all studied the pitcher.
Bonds looked for the red seams.
Carew looked for the red dot [slider].
Joe Rudi prayed that Reggie would be walked so he could hit.
The great hitters wanted to be in the batter's box, they expected a "good pitch" to hit.
All had a "game plan" before entering the batter's box.
Bob
"Inner arrogance"!
Truman, maybe they never truly had it.
Bob
Smitty- I'll answer a bit more seriously, as my post earlier was somewhat sarcastic. I think the most interesting point you made was the assumption that projecting pitchers is easier. Despite the fact that I was a pitcher when I played, I find the complete opposite to be true. There are far more ways for an elite level athlete to impact the game at a high level as a position player than as a pitcher. Not to mention, there is inherently a much higher injury risk with pitchers than with position players.
When evaluating the hit tool, Truman hit a lot of good points. Beyond those, swing plane is a huge factor in projecting future production, and is often a major facet of a player's ability to consistently drive the ball. If a player is mechanically sound, combining good bat speed with a good swing plane and a timely hip fire, it's a bit easier to project those players to hit at a high level. The most elite hitters - those that are found at the top end of the draft - have what I refer to as a "carrying tool." For some, it may be enormous raw power. For others, it might be barrel control through the zone. While running speed is not a factor when evaluating a player's true bat-to-ball ability, it can sometimes factor into a player's overall plate approach. The most elite hitting prospects will combine all of the mechanical cues mentioned above while still maintaining a patient, sound approach and consistently squaring balls up.
Lastly, athleticism is crucial in high level prospects - at any position. An above average athlete will be able to adapt and make adjustments at a much faster rate than someone who may not be as athletic. The more athletic a player is, the more attractive that player is to a talent evaluator. If present skills are lacking but tools are there, and the player is a good athlete, it's often easier to bet on that player reaching his projected ceiling than someone without as much natural athletic ability.
The tools that Bob mentioned pertaining to character and work ethic come into play only after raw baseball tools are present. I've met an unbelievable amount of high character young men while working in the game, all of whom have incredible drive and desire and work ethic. Almost all of them are lacking the ability to have a toolset that will carry them to the next level. Unfortunately, it's literally meaningless without baseball tools. Character is absolutely a crucial element to evaluating a prospect that possesses tools, and goes far beyond being a good citizen and a hard working. I define character largely by a player's baseball aptitude. I'll pull an example that I'm familiar with, that pertains to a friend of mine. Gabe Kapler was drafted in the 57th round (!!!) of the 1995 draft out of a Southern California junior college. He was, at the time, a scrawny outfielder with some athleticism and he knew how to put the ball in play. Gabe was admittedly oblivious to the fact that a 57th round pick is simply not supposed to succeed at the highest level. Rather than wilting away with the inability to keep up with more naturally talented players, Gabe saw his ability to put on muscle as a way to illuminate his tools. With his newfound strength (I'm sure some of you have seen the shirtless pictures from his playing days), Gabe's abilities that were previously below average allowed him to reach his ceiling as a player. Gabe's work ethic pertaining to physicality saw him get 3,315 big league plate appearances - assuredly 3,315 more than anyone expected him to get. Other than himself, of course. With those plate appearances came two World Series rings, including the first in Boston in 86 years.
Another story, one that is more well known, is that of David Eckstein. Somewhat of a polar opposite in physical appearance in comparison to Gabe, Eckstein was a diminutive second baseman that signed for $1,000 as a college senior. He possessed no tangible tools that could project to big league average. What Eckstein did so well was maximize his given tools. He understood exactly who he was and what he could/couldn't do. He focused on improving his tools rather than attempting to create tools that weren't there. He became an expert in footwork and defensive positioning, and learned his own swing enough to ensure his bat-to-ball skills allowed him to make contact at a consistently hard rate. Eckstein had almost double the amount of big league plate appearances that Gabe did, to go along with 2 All-Star Game appearances, 2 World Series rings and a World Series MVP trophy. Not bad for a 5'6" college senior second baseman who threw the ball with three fingers.
These are anecdotal stories, of course, and intended to provide a "feel good" notion to the subject. At the end of the day, regardless of the tool being evaluated, the player should worry about being the best he can possibly be. The talent evaluators will sift through the information at hand and decipher for themselves.
JH,
thank you for that thoughtful analysis…good stuff. I particularly found this comment interesting:
"If a player is mechanically sound, combining good bat speed with a good swing plane and a timely hip fire, it's a bit easier to project those players to hit at a high level."
I'm drawn to this because it comes close to making the unquantifiable at least somewhat tangible.
I follow-up question comes to mind - I am hearing more about back spin lately (perhaps because I'm paying more attention&hellip. I've learned that back spin is the result of swing plane and bat speed, and has a significant impact on the carry/distance of a batted ball. I imagine this would be measurable in the same way the spin on a pitch is measurable. Is this something that is being measured in elite hitters?
good hitters use the "high tee" drill, maybe the single best drill for a hitter.
This provides "back spin" which allow the ball to carry further than the OF thinks.
Question: can you teach a player to "read the bat"?
BOB
Beyond those, swing plane is a huge factor in projecting future production, and is often a major facet of a player's ability to consistently drive the ball.
JH do you mean the hitters natural swing plane or their ability to match the balls path ? Is this what they are talking about when they say " He has a line drive swing"? Way over my head discussing this just wondering though.
Sound of the ball hitting the wood bat.
Bob
You are very correct about that statement. I already posted this answer previously but Im reiterating what I wrote. My son is 8 going 9 this December. Spring of 2013 to Spring of 2014, I let him use 29 oz maple wood bat for the whole year. Game time of Spring 2014, he would hit balls all over the place. He got the strongest arm in the his Little League. He was the clumsiest kid that I saw playing baseball, he like the game so much but he does not have the skill to play. So I persevered, dragging him to practice 5x/day hitting 200 balls. I bought him an Insider Bat, I only used it 2x during practice. Finally, came up with an ash bat. Then it progressed to a maple bat. During the game, he used the bat he used for practice which is a maple bat. His forearms and wrist are stronger and bigger for his age. WOOD BAT is the way to go. Nothing can beat it.
Girrard,
It is great you have your 8 going on 9 year old son using a maple wood bat.
What I think Bob is pointing out and this thread discusses is what are scouts and college recruiting coaches looking for when evaluating hitters.
None are scouting the bat. They are scouting and evaluating the person using the bat.
Consultant's point, if I understood it correctly, is one meaningful difference when evaluating hitters at ages 16-17 and above is the sound of the ball coming off the bat.
The combination of hand speed through the zone, bat speed through the zone and the ability to barrel the ball squarely and consistently creates a sound which a skilled evaluator will recognize, no matter what bat is being used.
No one is scouting or evaluating the bat, even a maple one.
I can tie in both Smitty28's question and hueysdad's question here in my answer.
Naturally, the quicker the ball spins, the more it moves. Take a four-seam fastball, for example. The more RPMs a pitch has, the faster it will move and the more it will carry. RPMs on a breaking ball impact the "bite" of the pitch. All of the above is quantifiable and has been found to have a direct correlation with swing&miss data for pitchers.
As is true with pitching, generating backspin off the bat is important for hitters. The more backspin, generally, the harder the ball is hit and the longer it will carry (there are some instances where a ball hit with less backspin will travel faster, but with a large enough sample of data this becomes untrue). The physics of a baseball swing are actually fairly simple. A baseball is pitched at a certain angle. The pitcher releases the ball from a height higher than that of the strike zone, and is forcefully attempting to throw the ball downhill. Gravity is having the same effect on the ball. As a result, the ball is traveling at a downward angle to home plate. In order to meet the ball at an optimal angle, the bathead must be positioned in the perfect opposite angle. (Note: this debunks the age-old "swing down" or "level swing" teaching methods. Neither are proper ways to teach hitting)
As for quantifying this at the amateur level, scouts are generally quite good at recognizing what is known as "natural loft" or "carry" or "swing plane." And, generally speaking, the data backs up these noticeable traits. Many teams have systems that effectively quantify such things, all of which are proprietary. Trackman (which has partnered with Perfect Game, as well as several other organizations), is an example of technology that is able to quantify vectors, angles, exit velocities and RPMs.
So, to answer the question, swing plane involves the path that the bat takes to the ball and the hitter's ability to square it up and drive the ball forcefully with carry. As noted by Smitty28, the more bat speed the better (the more any type of speed, the better). Hope this helps.
Follow up:
There is a lot of fabulous info about much of the above put out by a physics professor at the University of Illinois. High school-aged J H would faint knowing that current-aged J H finds physics fascinating.
Here's the website: http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu