How Much Should Strasburg Get?

Those with larger bonus' usually do not get paid all at once, for two reasons, better on taxes for the player and most teams at that point are cash poor. Besides, they get to hold onto the money and make interest.
I could be wrong, but that is my understanding why teams prefer MLB contracts over larger bonus and yes, very seldom does this happen (ML contract). When a player signs a MLB contract, to my knowledge you can't have both. He becomes part of the 40 man roster immediately. His service time begins immediately, he doesn't have to wait the 5 years to be protected if he doesn't make the big league roster.
As an example, David Price's bonus was under 3 million, I beleive, while his MLB contract and incentives totaled much, much more.
I could be wrong, but I was told that teams will sign MLB contracts because that can be spread out over a longer period of time, but this happens to only a few each year.

You know what, now that you mention that, I seem to recall something similar. I think that if they sign an MLB contract, there is some ability to spread it out, but I don't recall the particulars. But I still don't think there is any cap on the size of the bonus.

Of course, the down side to MLB contracts is that they basically put a hard deadline on when the players must reach the majors. The option years kick in, and if a player isn't MLB ready in year four (I think) then the team must make a decision to carry a player who isn't ready or run them through waivers.

quote:

Originally posted by J H:
Bear-
.....
I just don't think a guy with this much hype and skill would be offered that much less than those around him. Brien Taylor signed for more money almost two decades ago. There have been literally hundreds of less heralded prospects to get more than $1 million. Is it right? That's not for me to say. But in comparison, Strasburg will be offered quite a bit more.

Just as Brien Taylor was offered 'Van Poppel' money (and took it), Strasburg may be offered similar 'slot money', which his 'advisor' will probably turn down.

Prediction: Strasburg may NOT get signed.

Let's just hope if Strasburg does sign, the parent club takes care of him, thru his climb thru MiLB and NOT suffer the similar short baseball career as Taylor Taylor's Story 15 years later

The big advantage to the MLB contract is from the player's perspective. It speeds up the date by when he will be eligible for arbitration and free agency. In some instances, the teams have structured compensation with a multi-year payout in order to claim to have kept the "bonus" within slot while paying huge additional amounts as salary.

The MLB contract also permits many items that are negotiable, e.g., incentive clauses. The MiLB contract is a standard form and my understanding is you cannot negotiate it -- even though, last time I read it, it had a fairly simple drafting error in it that really ought to be fixed.

There are so few MLB contracts given to draftees that we don't talk about it much. But Strasburg will get one, no doubt.

Midlo,
You can change things in the standard milb contract but it must be changed under an addendum.

quote:

Just as Brien Taylor was offered 'Van Poppel' money (and took it), Strasburg may be offered similar 'slot money', which his 'advisor' will probably turn down.

Van Poppel received a $600,000 signing bonus, Taylor $1.55 million. I hardly believe that either of those figures would be considered "slot" money. Van Poppel's signing bonus was nearly double the highest ever before and Taylor's was nearly triple that. Percentage-wise in comparison to today, that means that Strasburg would be yielding around $30 million for a signing bonus.

quote:

Let's just hope if Strasburg does sign, the parent club takes care of him, thru his climb thru MiLB and NOT suffer the similar short baseball career as Taylor Taylor's Story 15 years later

Agree 100%. I think a lot of things are taken out of perspective here when discussing Strasburg. Yes he's an immense talent, maybe one we've never seen before, but he is human.

Taylor's story is a tragedy, but no fault of the team that had him. My understanding is that his shoulder got torn up in a bar fight. At least one story had him trying to break up a fight involving others. Just one of those tragic stories. Very Roy Hobbs.

FWIW, Peter Gammons' take last night was that the Nats would sign Strasburg at the last minute. He indicated the stated demand was now $30 m, not $50 m. He suggested that a lot of what was holding things up was the fact that the Commissioner's office would not want the deal announced until after all the other people have had to do or not do their other deals.

Wouldn't surprise me if you saw an MLB contract, maybe $10 m "bonus", with maybe $10 m in guaranteed salary over 5 years, plus maybe the prospect of another $10 m in incentives. Boras claims victory for the "$30 million deal" while the Nats get their man at an average of $4 m/year plus incentives.

Just speculating, but I guess we'll know by this time next week.

I think a deal is in place and you are right Midlo about what Gammons said, they have to wait until the last minute.
Doesn't MLB own part of the Nats? Why NOT make it happen.

Will get back to the Todd Van Poppel story in a separate blog.

In the meantime: With all due respect to
HoF P Gammons (who was unable to participate
in a strawman vote.... (there were
other notables incl ESPN Sport Analyst, a special asst to a GM, an international scouting director, others).....

How much guaranteed signing bonus should college RHP Stephen Strasburg get from the Nationals from
the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft?

29.7% - $1 million or less

17.4% - $1 million-$5 million

21.1% - $5 million-$10 million

14.2% - $10.5 million (the current record)

13.7% - $10.6 million-$29 million

03.8% - $30+ million (what Boras reportedly wants)

Interesting.

quote:

Originally posted by J H:
[QUOTE]Just as Brien Taylor was offered 'Van Poppel' money (and took it), Strasburg may be offered similar 'slot money', which his 'advisor' will probably turn down.

quote:

Van Poppel received a $600,000 signing bonus, .....I hardly believe that either of those figures would be considered "slot" money. Van Poppel's signing bonus was nearly double the highest ever before and Taylor's was nearly triple that.

Different view point. Know the era well. The Braves or Brewers might have drafted the highly touted Van Poppel. Instead, Milwaukee traded for Oakland's Dave Parker (he could still hit), Oakland received a compensation pick, while the Braves chose SS Chipper Jones (from Jacksonville).

In the 1990 MLB Amateur Draft, Oakland chose the HS phenom as the 14th pick. Van Poppel signed (Boras was 'the advisor' yet Dad (Hank) handled most)... for ~$1.25 M in July 16, 1990 (electing not to become a Texas Longhorn) (courtesy of my friend in the Society for American Baseball Research)

Being the first chosen in MLB Amateur draft is special and the odds are infinitesimal. MLB teams select one player from among all college Jrs & Srs all HS Srs, and today's International players.
In 1990, no HS P was No. 1 since the '73 Rangers loved Houston West Chester HS LHP David Clyde.

Some say Van Poppel was rushed to the big leagues (signed a MLB contract rather than a standard MiLB contract). Some arm trouble was reported early in his young career. For his big league career, Van Poppel had about a dozen years as a middle-reliever yet also holds the record for most season IP where ER > IP (i.e. 1996, 99 1/3 IP, allowing 100 earned runs.)

I would love to ask scouts such as Braves Red Murff, Tiger's Dee Phillips, Indians Tom Chandler
about Van Poppel's career (since each projected it to Nolan Ryan's and Roger Clemens)

cheers

How could $1 million or less even been one of the choices. That is not 1st pick money. That's barely first round money. There have been NON 1st rounders sign for more than that already this year.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
How could $1 million or less even been one of the choices. That is not 1st pick money. That's barely first round money. There have been NON 1st rounders sign for more than that already this year.

A differing view point.....or maybe EXCUSE ME!

As of date, of the Top 32 first rounders, two (and I think college players) signed for less (much less) than $1M. The Pirates signed a HS kid out of Texas (8th rounder) for $1.1M!, and I think a HS LHP (a supplemental pick out of So-Cal) signed a bonus for $1M.

And your point is?

quote:

And your point is?

quote:

quote:
Originally posted by PGStaff:
How could $1 million or less even been one of the choices. That is not 1st pick money. That's barely first round money. There have been NON 1st rounders sign for more than that already this year.

Rumors of the negotiations in a F2F sit down between the Lerner family (including the Nationals front office) and the Strasburg family (sans advisor Boras) "are not acrimonious"

The highest awarded contract of $10.5 M may simply remain the largest deal awarded to a drafted amateur.

We should know by early morning Tuesday Aug 18.

Stay tuned.

Who wants to guess an over-under?


I am going way under. As in zero.

------------------------------------
Just out, Nationals Brass has reported stated
they believe they will NOT sign Strasburg (and from
what's been rumored offered $14-18M).

These numbers are no surprise. But, why in the heck did they draft him, other than to give a couple of months excitement to their fan(s)if they weren't comitted to signing him?

Baseball, and especially football, have got to get these ridiculous rookie salaries and bonuses under control. These guys have never pitched a day in the big leagues or played a snap in the NFL, yet they're already slated to make more money than 99.999 percent of people in this country could ever dream of. Let's cap the rookie draft pick salaries (at least in the first round) so that we can avoid people like Scott Boras holding the fate of franchises in their greedy little hands. If the NBA did one thing correctly, it was the rookie salary scale that ensures that there are no initial holdouts and that rookies can begin their careers the way they ought to in all sports, playing with the team that drafted them.

quote:

Originally posted by itsrosy:
These numbers are no surprise. But, why in the heck did they draft him, other than to give a couple of months excitement to their fan(s)if they weren't comitted to signing him?

Perhaps they never dealt with his agent before.

I don't get it either, they knew his demands would be over the top, but in consolation if they don't sign him they get another pick next year. Make a pick you know you can afford and sign. Personally as a fan I would be furious they drafted someone who they knew they couldn't afford.

I am just wondering, will he not sign and then go through all of this again next season? Foolish, make an agreeement for a ML contract and get the clock start ticking. If he is good as everyone thinks, he'll get some nice bucks anyway by arbitration. JMO.

BTW, the signings are coming in fast and furious and WAY above slot.

Come on TPM, their offering the guy record setting money. The Nationals are trying and they're letting their fans know that their trying. They can't help that they have to deal with the devil himself, Scott Boras.

Sunday, August 16, 2009
WASHINGTON AP - 8/16/2009

Strasburg likely to remain unsigned - Nationals president Stan Kasten acknowledged Saturday there is a "very real possibility" the team will not reach an agreement with No. 1 overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg despite offering him a record-breaking contract.

The Nationals face a deadline of midnight on Monday night to sign Strasburg, a right-handed pitcher from San Diego State whose fastball has been clocked at 102 mph.

He is represented by uber-agent Scott Boras, who has the top three players in this year's draft - all of whom were unsigned as of Saturday afternoon.

"With 48 hours to go, I simply have no idea whether we're going to be able to reach a deal," Kasten said in an interview with The Associated Press.

The clock is tickin'
GED10DaD

Boswell wrote a good one.

What peaked my attention this morning is

"If they don't get a deal done, it's a
mammouth failure of adult supervision"


cheers
Bear

postscript 1: I feel humbled to know, have tried to help, yet watched four amatuer players in my life, move on with the next stages of their lives.

Of the three that played with my son, two signed pro contracts are are professional athletes today.
(One graduated college, the other will graduate in December).
One player, drafted twice, never signed and never played pro ball, and has not graduated college (nor currently plans to).

The other player, drafted five times, never signed, never played pro ball, and never graduated.

postscript 2: As of this morning, all six of Boras's clients in the top round of the draft, have NOT signed.

Bear


Do you think Boras can get it done for all six by 12:01 on Tuesday morning?

quote:

Originally posted by Coach From The Southeast:
Come on TPM, their offering the guy record setting money. The Nationals are trying and they're letting their fans know that their trying. They can't help that they have to deal with the devil himself, Scott Boras.

Oh come on now yourself Coach, the Nats KNEW he would be very hard to sign, and he wasn't going to sign for a mere recording setting bonus of 10.5 plus some change. They knew who they would have to deal with (Boras). The Nats do have to make an effort, but I am sure that they had a few pre draft discussions and knew what was ahead of them. They had the opportunity, on draft day, to pass for someone who was willing to take first pick reasonable money. They have to make an effort, even if just an effort to make fans happy.

FWIW, not ever stepping onto a ML field no way is ANY player worth more than an established player, however, small market teams like the Nats who can't afford free agency have to spend big bucks for high draft picks, that's where the problem lies, the way I see it. Perhaps caps should be placed on free agency?

Placing some type of cap forces players to sign right away, which should be the object of the industry. But where do you draw that line? This has become a nightmare for college coaches, waiting until the last minute to see who will or will not show up.

If I were his folks, I would be a bit nervous right now, and I will bet you donut and a coffee, they would be very happy for him to take what's offered as of today.

Boras can get all six signed in the next 37+ hours ... if that's what he and they want.

Probably some of them already have deals struck. Assuming the deals are "above slot", they just haven't turned them in to the Commissioner's office yet. I'm sure there's more than one fax machine available tomorrow night.

As for Strasburg, I would guess the strategy is just to make sure they've completely milked the cow. For $15 m, he'd be a darned fool not to sign -- unless by waiting another 35 hours, he can get more.

Boras has already shown that he will hold a player out, e.g., send him to Indy ball, and let them negotiate the next year. But Indy ball doesn't make you a free agent, it just throws you back into next year's draft, with less leverage I would say. Japan is possibly another tack he would try, but given the economy I don't know that anyone -- not even the Red Sox or Yankees -- would throw Daisuke money at Strasburg next summer.

I'm betting a record breaking deal gets done, well below the posturing figures but well higher than any prior deal.

I agree with Midlo, most likely the others have made deals but not turned in until they have to. Better make sure they get it done by 12, so there is no problem like last year, question as to the time.
I do beleive he might sign, because there is no point in playing Indy ball for a year holding out for something a smaller market team can't afford, and his stock goes down. Sorry, if I were the Nats I would hold firm, but that's their call.
I don't understand why MLB doesn't help contribute some way to the draft. Let's say they slotted picks 1-30 for x amount of dollars each pick, then teams have options to add to that amount. This would help smaller teams free up money for FA, instead of having to rely on the draft and years to build up a team for contention, this might also make it more interesting, more competitve. Just a thought.

I agree.... Some clubs, especially if their guy's deal is above "slot", wait till the 11nth hour. There appears to be some pressures from club-to-club not to bust "slot" early as it effects every other club with non-signed player in that round too.

Kinda like every guy in the NFL 1st round yet to sign, to see what Crabs is going to get at #10. Remember, even though these boys are loved, it is still a business. Especially to the front offices and the AGENT!

GED10DaD

If they didn't pick him, then everybody including their fans would have blasted the Nationals anyway. Look, $14-$16 million is not some change over the record. That's actually quite a bit over the record of $10.5. An that's making an effort on Washingtons' side if you ask me.
An let me get this straight, you would rather have CAPS on free-agency for established players then CAPS on rookies that haven't even stepped on a MLB field?

quote:

Originally posted by TRhit:
Bear

Do you think Boras can get it done for all six by 12:01 on Tuesday morning?

Good question, Tom. I guess it really depends on when the real negotiation starts, and whether it 12:01 Eastern Daylight Time.

Based on what Tex told me, it took Boras and the Yankees 45 minutes to close lil Tex big big buck deal.

Bottom Line: I understand Boras messages and each could affect MiLB. Currently, labor for MiLB is a fixed labor price type business for owners.

You and I know, if we had a business with fixed labor prices, our business plan to the bank would be approved and rather quickly.

I get sick to my stomach when thinking about how a talented young man does NOT readily pursue his dreams. I hope all six sign.

And oh by the way. A HS player, drafted in 2006, attended college for one year, then sat out two years, called me this afternoon. He said he read my blog this morning. We met for pizza a couple of hours ago (where I first met when he was seven). He asked me for help for him to pursue his dreams again of playing pro ball. He's 20 years old. I agreed. I can't wait to start.

With the mechanical problems he has he could possibly blow out his arm before he finally decides to sign if he pitches regularly, J.D. Drew went the same route and played independent ball, O.J. Simpson was going to be red shirted at U.C.L.A. and decided he was better than that and went to JR. college instead, he was right.
Some people believe so deeply in themselves that they will absolutely stand their ground, I wonder if Strasburg will hold out past his deadline, or should I say will his agent hold out?
Good luck with that 20 yr. old, I certainly hope you can get him a chance to play pro-ball it is fun, I thoroughly enjoyed my time and always have wished that I would have taken full advantage of the opportunity that was given to me, by not doing so I will always wonder how far I could have gone.
Don Ervin.

A lot of money. Lots. Most ever. And by more
than 150%.

Glad he signed.
Enters the next stage of his dreams.
His best learning experience should be to enter
the minor league system (and from the bottom).

Best wishes to him to be injury free.
If so, should be in the rotation.
And I might add, with the worst team in MLB (and
maybe ever).
Of course, I will attend at Nats Stadium when
he pitches. If just to see his off-speed arsenal.

Cheers

postscript: Looks like the way over, on the over-under won. I wonder who is going to show for that payout. Dominics on Fri for happy hour. And then forever hold your peace.

To me, this is a sensible deal.

The money got to that level where he'd've been a fool not to sign. Sure, he and Boras would've liked to have gotten more if they could, but they pushed it as far as they could and they got what they could. As Jack Warden told Paul Newman in the verdict, "You've won. When they give you the money, you've won!"

The Nats, though, have to be viewed as big winners. Strasburg is likely to be a big cash cow for them in terms of TV and ticket sales revenues, sales of jerseys, etc. The Nats skillfully used all the leverage of the current draft system to get this asset into the company at a price that virtually guarantees profitability.

And that's if they don't win games in the future at any greater clip than they do now. Lately, when I watch the Nats, I think, "You know, if they could just continue developing their pitching ...." I don't know if a division title is in the near future, but it's not out of the question that they could be legit wild card contenders within 2 years. Whether they get there, who knows, but landing top pitchers should help. And Strasburg isn't the only top pitcher they signed this year, not to mention the last few years cumulatively.

I gave a buck to walk into and listen to Strasburg-Boras-Nats Brass at the intro this afternnoon at the National Stadium.

Strasburg said all the right things.
(kinda reminded me Bull Durham when Kevin Costner (Crash Davis) teaches Tim Robbins (Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LalLoosh) on the bus to work on his interviews and how he is "gonna have to learn your clichés. You're gonna have to study them, you're gonna have to know them. They're your friends. Write this down: "We gotta play it one day at a time."

That's a dollar and two hours I've never get back!