HS Baseball "Politics" & the MLB Draft

@Dominik85 wrote “the parents of the average to slightly above average kids”

IMO this group of people are the biggest problem in both HS and travel ball. So many are delusional about their kids ability to play college baseball and because of that create massive problems for HS and travel ball coaches alike. They are often the most aggressive about attending showcase events and are convinced that their kids should be recruited because of their metrics - in spite of the fact that the kid is an average player. So many are also the quickest to argue with the voices of experience when they don’t like the message they are hearing. Select used to be the operative word in “select baseball” but for years travel ball has gotten so watered down that “select” only refers to choosing families that can afford to pay the requisite fees.

@adbono posted:

@Dominik85 wrote “the parents of the average to slightly above average kids”

IMO this group of people are the biggest problem in both HS and travel ball. So many are delusional about their kids ability to play college baseball and because of that create massive problems for HS and travel ball coaches alike. They are often the most aggressive about attending showcase events and are convinced that their kids should be recruited because of their metrics - in spite of the fact that the kid is an average player. So many are also the quickest to argue with the voices of experience when they don’t like the message they are hearing. Select used to be the operative word in “select baseball” but for years travel ball has gotten so watered down that “select” only refers to choosing families that can afford to pay the requisite fees.

Those delusional parents are financing travel ball. True elite select ball would not create profit (because there are not enough elite players) but by suggesting to delusional parents that they can be part of this the delusional parents are Essentially subsidizing the game for the few elite players.

Gyms are the same, the guys who sign up in January, go for a month and then don't go again the rest of the year are paying for the guys who go 6 times a week all year.

@knownothingdad posted:

I agree.  I see now that the original poster’s question was about MLB scouting and not college scouting.  My replies with comments about college scouting were off topic.

Schools will not openly tell you their recruiting budget.

Note, remember baseball is consider non-revenue generating sport.

When they report their EADA numbers, the recruiting expenses are rolled up into the total expense.

Note, colleges have always used HS, Travel, American Legion, and other services to help them identify talent.

Mostly relationship based.

E.G St John's University 2020 budget

Expense by Sport

10 yr Baseball Budget

@adbono posted:

@Dominik85 wrote “the parents of the average to slightly above average kids”

IMO this group of people are the biggest problem in both HS and travel ball. So many are delusional about their kids ability to play college baseball and because of that create massive problems for HS and travel ball coaches alike. They are often the most aggressive about attending showcase events and are convinced that their kids should be recruited because of their metrics - in spite of the fact that the kid is an average player. So many are also the quickest to argue with the voices of experience when they don’t like the message they are hearing. Select used to be the operative word in “select baseball” but for years travel ball has gotten so watered down that “select” only refers to choosing families that can afford to pay the requisite fees.

I agree travel is watered down. A lot of parents are paying to be able to thump their chest and claim their kid plays travel. Yet, the kid has no future in the game. He will be lucky to start in high school.

Select had different meaning for me. I had no trouble making a list of twenty 13u players I wanted. I knew I would have no trouble recruiting them. I only needed thirteen. I then proceeded to “select” parents and kids I figured wouldn’t be a problem.

I didn’t  invite two back for 14u. A third headed for an academy. The dad thought getting in at 14u was a path to the 17u team. He was wrong.

Of the two one was a parent issue. Her kid was doomed from the moment she walked into the dugout during a game and complained about his position.

The other was a kid issue. Most of them team asked me not to have the kid back. They didn’t influence me. I had already decided he was a PITA.

When I added three pitchers for 16u I watched games to see if the dads were coaching their sons from the sidelines. I caught one dad calling pitches. Didn’t take the kid.

@Dominik85 posted:

Those delusional parents are financing travel ball. True elite select ball would not create profit (because there are not enough elite players) but by suggesting to delusional parents that they can be part of this the delusional parents are Essentially subsidizing the game for the few elite players.

Gyms are the same, the guys who sign up in January, go for a month and then don't go again the rest of the year are paying for the guys who go 6 times a week all year.

It is a snake eating it's tail. The elite tourneys/showcases requires a pedigree to get in. Parents of fringe players are willing to make that investment into those elite orgs for the opportunity. The definition of fringe is vast and thus the dearth of B to D travel teams in orgs.

Curious. Do these middle-of-the-pack travel ball parents want into these elite tournaments for a shot at playing for a great baseball college? Or do they think their kid has a shot at going pro? Just trying check the delusional levels a bit.

So, speaking as a middle-of-the-pack travel parent whose son was on the B team of a decent organization, I can say this.  First, we knew nothing when we started down the path.  Our choice was between local (bad) dad-ball or a larger organization.  When we started (13U) we thought the point was to play the best possible baseball in the summer, as a way of keeping sharp for HS varsity.  Yes, we thought that HS was the goal, and travel was what you did when school was out.  When the organization said go to Florida or Georgia, we thought that was kind of cool; in our organization, the HS-level teams who didn't go to those tournaments were not that good.  It was fun for my son to play on a team full of decent players who took it seriously.

I think gradually we realized that this was going to matter for college recruiting.  Still had no idea how it worked, and the organization seemed to assume that we knew, and didn't provide much information.  They were helpful when we asked specific questions, but we didn't really know what to ask (I had not found HSBBW yet).  In 17U summer they were helpful with reaching out to interested schools, by then it was mostly HA D1s and D3s.  They had known him a while, and could give a great character reference as well as talking about where skills fit.   He ended up at a good D3, was playing as a freshman.

So, I don't think we were delusional as such, because we didn't know anything.  Maybe I delude myself in thinking that playing with other serious players against high-level teams helped his baseball skills overall.  I certainly met parents who were "deluded" in the sense you mean.   We saw a lot of recruiting situations play out, and now are seeing how it is working out in college (many not well).  I would have been happy to leave Georgia and Florida to the true studs.  Would not have been happy to be playing local dad-ball teams.  No-one ever suggested to us that there was something in the middle.

The decision process was easy when I was a kid. Everyone played LL. Then, wherever anyone lived there was a prominent program. Where I was in the summer it was Babe Ruth and Legion.

The hard part was college recruiting involved being found. My Legion coach was a babysitter with no contacts. Exposure came from making states and regions. Fortunately I was found by better college programs through high school ball. Now high school is far less likely to be a route to college ball.

Now a kid can choose his travel team by their ability to promote players.

In comparing my experience with my sons mine was far less expensive. The problem today is too many parents deluding themselves their kids are more talented than reality and spending far too much money.

If a mediocre player can get himself into a prominent travel program he just gets buried by the talent and goes unnoticed. Travel ball is not like real estate. You don’t buy the best you can afford in the best possible neighborhood. You have to stand out to be noticed in travel ball.

@anotherparent posted:

So, speaking as a middle-of-the-pack travel parent whose son was on the B team of a decent organization, I can say this.  First, we knew nothing when we started down the path.  Our choice was between local (bad) dad-ball or a larger organization.  When we started (13U) we thought the point was to play the best possible baseball in the summer, as a way of keeping sharp for HS varsity.  Yes, we thought that HS was the goal, and travel was what you did when school was out.  When the organization said go to Florida or Georgia, we thought that was kind of cool; in our organization, the HS-level teams who didn't go to those tournaments were not that good.  It was fun for my son to play on a team full of decent players who took it seriously.

I think gradually we realized that this was going to matter for college recruiting.  Still had no idea how it worked, and the organization seemed to assume that we knew, and didn't provide much information.  They were helpful when we asked specific questions, but we didn't really know what to ask (I had not found HSBBW yet).  In 17U summer they were helpful with reaching out to interested schools, by then it was mostly HA D1s and D3s.  They had known him a while, and could give a great character reference as well as talking about where skills fit.   He ended up at a good D3, was playing as a freshman.

So, I don't think we were delusional as such, because we didn't know anything.  Maybe I delude myself in thinking that playing with other serious players against high-level teams helped his baseball skills overall.  I certainly met parents who were "deluded" in the sense you mean.   We saw a lot of recruiting situations play out, and now are seeing how it is working out in college (many not well).  I would have been happy to leave Georgia and Florida to the true studs.  Would not have been happy to be playing local dad-ball teams.  No-one ever suggested to us that there was something in the middle.

IMO, this post is the best on this thread. I think most parents fall into this category, unless this is their 2nd or 3rd time thru the process. Right or wrong, I took my son to his first PG Showcase when he was about 15, if I remember correctly. The reason was I had no idea how good my son was and I wanted a baseline to know which “pond to fish in”. How do you know what you don’t know??  So yes he was graded by PG and I was also able to see what the better kids looked like with my eyes. I’m sure there is some favoritism shown to kids that play for the bigger programs. I don’t think it is intentional, but it’s just you kinda know what a kid that plays for Team Elite, EC Astros, Dublin’s Dodgers, etc is gonna be. But is it the egg or chicken?  Did that kid get a good PG grade first or play in the elite travel team first?  The top travel teams are gonna seek out the best players. It’s just simply easier for colleges to go to a PG event and scout 30 potential guys over a weekend than try to see those kids individually. I have no “interest” in PG, but I am 100% convinced PG helped my kid get to where he is today. Did I spend some money on travel ball and showcases? Yes. Do I regret it? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!  My kid was “found” by LSU, offered an opportunity to go to East Coast Pro Showcase and even got drafted because of playing in PG events. Obviously it helped that he pitched for East Cobb Astros and was in the finals of almost every single tournament they played in against the best competition available at that time. I realize he had to have the talent for any of that to happen, but how do you know that when you come from a small county in SW Georgia?  HS ball is NOT gonna help if you are outside if Atlanta. Legion ball is a joke. So travel ball was out only way to play against better competition and allow him to see where his talent matched up. Even after he was a junior in HS and was getting serious pro interest, he was still offered a “walk on” spot at our major state university. I didn’t know if that was good or bad. I “thought” I knew, but leaned on the travel ball coach for his perspective. He LAUGHED when I told him that. We see our one kid, they have seen 100s over their years of coaching. Within a few weeks of that “offer”, son had pitched 3 innings of a game at Lakepoint that started at 11pm because of weather. There were 30+ pro scouts there and I cannot tell you how many colleges, ALL because he came in 2 days prior in a PG tournament game and hit 91 from left side. His whole life changed that instant!!  There were more recruiting violations that occurred that night than I can tell you. The next am, his phone was blowing up. He went from 1 offer from a D1 midmajor and that “walk on” opportunity to 12+ scholarship offers from schools all the way to Oklahoma.

I’m not writing any of this to blow up my son. The point is that without travel ball and PG, there is NO WAY this would have happened. All of us have different stories, but I frankly get tired of PG getting bashed all the time. I agree it’s not the end all-be all. But it ABSOLUTELY provides a platform for people to use and gather information. It’s not PG fault that parents of kids that aren’t gonna play beyond HS blow money. That’s like saying it’s McDonald’s fault that this country is full of overweight adults and children or that guns are the reason so many murders occur. So don’t whine and complain that you spent thousands of dollars at PG or PBR and your son didn’t get drafted or a scholarship to that P5 D1 school you felt he “deserved”. Sorry for the long post and I’ll step off my soapbox now.

My son was promoted by his travel coach/discovered at two regional events. But PG events in GA and FL proved to those college coaches and himself even though he wasn’t a top five hundred prospect he belonged on the field with them. Confidence matters.

There isn’t a right way and a wrong way to get in front of the right target college programs. What’s important is getting in front of them.

A friend’s son went to the same PG events with a second rate team. They complained they played on back fields and never saw a college coach. I tried to tell them when our kids went their separate ways in travel (coached the kids through age fifteen) they were fishing in the wrong pond.

After the fact the mother told me she was mad at me I suggested their son was a D3 prospect. Guess where he ended up playing.

I never understood the “your kid is a D3 prospect” being taken as an insult thing.   It’s an honor and a blessing to be able to play college sports, especially a sport you love, at any level.  A lot of kids would love to, and don’t get the opportunity.

What I see around here a ton is:  kids overreaching.  They get the D1 commit and never play.  4 years as a bullpen catcher and 3 courtesy at bats as a Senior in blowout games is not “playing “ college Baseball.  It’s a very expensive ticket to watch College Baseball and practice with the team.

The same thing happens, too, with kids who are purely D3 talent and commit to D3 National title contenders.  A school like that ends up having a starting lineup of mostly D1 drop downs and JUCO transfers.

You really need to be realistic about your talent level.

The travel teams and PBR (in our region at least), don’t always help in that regard.  There are financial incentives for the travel teams to get as many D1 commits as possible.  That’s how they advertise their program and get Dads of 11 year olds to sign up for hitting lessons etc

There is a mindset out there that anybody can play D2, D3, NAIA, or juco and that may be the case if they have a jv team.  I have had guys tell me that NAIA and juco is not really college baseball or softball, for that matter.  I remind them that there are schools that are not very successful and almost anybody can play but the medium to high level teams are very competitive to D1 and the top juco's are even with the P5 teams.  But I know that mindset exists that anybody can play college if they want to.

I get in trouble on here every now and then because I talk about D1 and P5 but that is all I really know from personal experience.  I try not to give an opinion on stuff I don't have personal experience with on here.

Okay, this topic has come up several times.  Know your level, fish in the right pond, etc.

Question is, where does a parent get real unbiased critique of where their kid is?  Aren’t most parties involved biased and incentivized to tell a kid and parents a level too high?

@Around_The_Horn posted:

Okay, this topic has come up several times.  Know your level, fish in the right pond, etc.

Question is, where does a parent get real unbiased critique of where their kid is?  Aren’t most parties involved biased and incentivized to tell a kid and parents a level too high?

If your kid is a D1 prospect the odds are high he will be approached by travel programs that can get him there. It doesn’t mean a kid has to play travel. But it’s a tip off on talent level.

Some kids are tweeners between mid major D1 and high end D3. It’s when there has to be some objectivity. The player has to realize it’s unlikely he’s going pro and make the best academic decision combined with a realistic approach to whether or not he can get on the field.

Some kids are physical late bloomers. If they blossom where they’re that good in D3 their college coach will get them to the right collegiate summer league.

The "level" of baseball talent is a tricky question.  Obviously the P5 talent separates itself from the pack and it gets identified early - Frosh HS or earlier usually.  But mid-tier D1 vs D2... who can say?  For that matter, mid-D1 vs JUCO is not obvious, at least not around here (Southern California).  In my son's experience, you get a feel based on the travel team you are playing with, how you stack up against teammates (who are D1 or D2 commits), and how you do in competition.  Then you reach out to college coaches and see who responds.  The only way to really know is what the college coaches tell you.

@Smitty28 posted:

The "level" of baseball talent is a tricky question.  Obviously the P5 talent separates itself from the pack and it gets identified early - Frosh HS or earlier usually.  But mid-tier D1 vs D2... who can say?  For that matter, mid-D1 vs JUCO is not obvious, at least not around here (Southern California).  In my son's experience, you get a feel based on the travel team you are playing with, how you stack up against teammates (who are D1 or D2 commits), and how you do in competition.  Then you reach out to college coaches and see who responds.  The only way to really know is what the college coaches tell you.

But I would say that that is exactly the kind of thing that can be misleading.  My son performed better than many of his travel teammates who were D1 commits, in the same games against good travel teams.  That "feel" was completely wrong as far as recruiting actually went.

Now that they are two years into college, I realize that only a few of those D1-committed players has seen the field at all.  Some didn't make it past freshman fall.   Some are in the transfer portal.  So in fact, perhaps they all should have been D2 or D3 players.  But, they were D1 commits.  Which is a lesson in itself.

@RJM posted:

Some kids are tweeners between mid major D1 and high end D3. It’s when there has to be some objectivity. The player has to realize it’s unlikely he’s going pro and make the best academic decision combined with a realistic approach to whether or not he can get on the field.

Many kids are tweeners in this way, because no-one can tell whether they are going to grow and improve from year to year.  It's not even really dishonest to tell 15U and 16U kids that they "could be mid-major D1", that's the whole problem.

You also have to look at the region of the country, too, because it really varies

D2 Tampa (and many other Florida D2’s) would beat D1 Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 10+ runs, 5 out of every 6 games

The top Texas JUCO’s could beat about half of the D1’s, if not more

The problem for many parents is they are not willing to take the truth from those who are giving it.  When you say how they stack up against their peers on their teams and the competition some are looking through rose colored glasses.  Their son bats .400 when they are keeping the scorebook.  If they get on it is a hit.  They are hit missiles to the outfield every at bat but the defense is just really good.  He pitches really well just struggles with consistent velocity and control but when he gets that figured out he is as good as anyone.  He only gives up a few runs 7/8 a game but it should really only be 1/2 if the defense could catch.  He only has 5/6 walks a game.  And I could go on and on.

When someone who has no skin in the game says, your son needs to learn to throw strikes and quit messing with 5 pitches, they get offended and say he doesn't know what he is talking about.  When someone says he has holes in his swing, that person is clueless.  When he is told he needs to learn to backhand, he didn't even play pro ball so what does he know.  Most parents don't want to hear the truth and so most people who would give it for free who know what they are talking about don't give it.  The only way to truly know which pond to fish in is to ask someone with no skin in the game and take them at their word.

@PitchingFan posted:

The problem for many parents is they are not willing to take the truth from those who are giving it.  When you say how they stack up against their peers on their teams and the competition some are looking through rose colored glasses.  Their son bats .400 when they are keeping the scorebook.  If they get on it is a hit.  They are hit missiles to the outfield every at bat but the defense is just really good.  He pitches really well just struggles with consistent velocity and control but when he gets that figured out he is as good as anyone.  He only gives up a few runs 7/8 a game but it should really only be 1/2 if the defense could catch.  He only has 5/6 walks a game.  And I could go on and on.

When someone who has no skin in the game says, your son needs to learn to throw strikes and quit messing with 5 pitches, they get offended and say he doesn't know what he is talking about.  When someone says he has holes in his swing, that person is clueless.  When he is told he needs to learn to backhand, he didn't even play pro ball so what does he know.  Most parents don't want to hear the truth and so most people who would give it for free who know what they are talking about don't give it.  The only way to truly know which pond to fish in is to ask someone with no skin in the game and take them at their word.

This is 100% fact !

@Around_The_Horn posted:

Aren’t most parties involved biased and incentivized to tell a kid and parents a level too high?

not in my experience. the programs I have been involved were pretty damn honest and also very accurate. Maybe i was just fortunate to be involved with the right organizations but I felt like it was an honest conversation.

Just wanted to throw a wrench into this one. Just for fun. A few years ago our 13U coach said “there are no D1 potential players on this team.” Today, three kids from that same team are playing D1.

Part of the problem is that for every person in the baseball industry that is willing to give an honest assessment there are ten more who are happy to inflate the kid and charge for lessons/travel ball.

What we did with our 2021 is get assessments from about 10 different former pro players or college coaches.  8 of them gave consistent feedback: “D3 athlete with a D1 swing, he can be D1 if his measureables improve”.  One person said “D1”.  One person said “Eventual D1 but he’ll need to go JUCO first.”

When so many different qualified people give you the same feedback, I think it’s important to listen.  He committed to a D3.  

Ultimately, the college coaches will tell you, based on offers, where you are at.  My kid only received offers from D3

@3and2Fastball posted:

What we did with our 2021 is get assessments from about 10 different former pro or college coaches.  8 of them gave consistent feedback: “D3 athlete with a D1 swing, he can be D1 if his measureables improve”.  One person said “D1”.  One person said “Eventual D1 but he’ll need to go JUCO first.”

When so many different qualified people give you the same feedback, I think it’s important to listen.  He committed to a D3.  

Ultimately, the college coaches will tell you, based on offers, where you are at.  My kid only received offers from D3

Well said. The marketplace will tell every kid where they belong - and they are usually right. But so many kids are tone deaf about what they are being told - which results in turning down good opportunities (scholarships) at D2 in favor of bad opportunities (walk on) at D1. And it rarely works out in the kids favor.

@adbono posted:

Well said. The marketplace will tell every kid where they belong - and they are usually right. But so many kids are tone deaf about what they are being told - which results in turning down good opportunities (scholarships) at D2 in favor of bad opportunities (walk on) at D1. And it rarely works out in the kids favor.

Exactly.  My son had several travel teammates who got similar feedback, but they and their Dad chose to listen to the 1 person who said D1 vs the 9 who said “not D1”.  

We’ll see how it works out but as you said it rarely does.  Walking on at a D1, or playing at a top JUCO without any scholarship money (i.e. the JUCO has invested in other players and not you) is not a recipe for success.

There is something about the human condition, especially these days it seems, where almost everybody thinks they are the exception that proves the rule.

I post the things I post in order to get smacked down by you guys, because I wish I had known about all this when my son was 14.  I hope the dialogue is useful to readers.  However...

@PitchingFan posted:

When you say how they stack up against their peers on their teams and the competition some are looking through rose colored glasses.  Their son bats .400 when they are keeping the scorebook.  If they get on it is a hit.  They are hit missiles to the outfield every at bat but the defense is just really good.  He pitches really well just struggles with consistent velocity and control but when he gets that figured out he is as good as anyone.  He only gives up a few runs 7/8 a game but it should really only be 1/2 if the defense could catch.  He only has 5/6 walks a game.  And I could go on and on.

Sorry, PF, I do actually know the difference between a hit and a fielder's choice.  I've also seen the LHP who throws 88 but misses the strike zone 90% of the time, walking 6 in a row, getting P5 offers. 

I admit I knew nothing about mechanical things, all I could see was performance.  But I could see that.

@3and2Fastball posted:

What we did with our 2021 is get assessments from about 10 different former pro players or college coaches.  8 of them gave consistent feedback: “D3 athlete with a D1 swing, he can be D1 if his measureables improve”.  One person said “D1”.  One person said “Eventual D1 but he’ll need to go JUCO first.”

Fantastic!  We had only 2 instructors in our town, plus the travel organization coaches.  There weren't many people to ask, but I wish we had asked them such questions.  Honestly, I didn't even know about the different levels until 17U.  When we did ask questions, we didn't always get straight answers, some coaches were clearly uncomfortable talking about either playing or recruiting.

As I think of it, my son's HS travel coaches (former D1 players) all had sons who were committed to D1 schools.  Not one of them has yet played an inning of college baseball (1 and 2 years in).

So don't entirely blame the tone-deaf parents; I'd say it's about 50-50 between parents not listening and coaches not telling.  Please, all you knowledgable people out there, I hope you talk a lot, even if you don't like doing it, especially to the clueless parents, and don't assume that they know anything at all about college baseball.

How did a thread about the MLB draft become about tweener players?

@IKETBD posted:

In reading almost everything I can in these forums, and talking to people in HS travel baseball, there seems to be consensus that HS Baseball does in fact have a political element to it to some degree.  When you look at the big scouting organizations or events politics is present.  Will PBR and PG rank you if you don't attend a showcase?  If so, will your ranking be affected by not attending, or another player attending 10x the events you have?  Does USA Baseball, Area Code, Under Armor or Gatorade State Player have a preference towards players from certain organizations?  If you are not from a preferred organization will you get a tryout?  An invitation from the team?  Even if you are a "better" player?  Do baseball "politics" only affect the average to upper level player or are even the "studs" affected?

And does HS Baseball "politics" have any effect on the draft?  For instance Area Code is chosen by local / regional scouts.  Aren't they the same ones putting potential names on a draft board?  Or USA Baseball's partnership with the MLB.  So if you're a "stud" but aren't with the right organization to get an invite, let alone make a team, how does that affect your position in the draft?

This year will be the first I will watch the draft with interest to see if any of the above is even discussed (ranking, event attendance, etc.) and if there are any correlations.

In 2004, someone offered a $10 million "X prize" for the first non-government organization to launch a reusable crewed spacecraft into space. 

26 private groups, some more qualified than others, spent a total of more than $100 million to win the prize, but only one team walked away with the $10 million.  Everyone else took a loss.

The MLB draft is an annual "X prize" for young baseball players on a similar scale.  For every dollar given away in signing bonuses to early round picks, there is easily ten times as much spent by families on lessons, travel ball, advisors, showcases, equipment, tournaments, travel, etc.

… about 50-50 between parents not listening and coaches not telling.

Its tilted more towards it being the parents fault for hearing what they want to hear rather than what is actually being said.

My favorite is what a college coach told the parent of a 11yo from our LL. The coach ran a summer baseball camp in conjunction with our town parks and rec department. The college baseball team was the recognized sponsor of the camp. A parent asked the coach if he thought his kid could play college ball some day.

The coach replied, “If he loves the game and works hard there’s no telling how far he can go.” If was a lot more polite than telling the parent the kid wasn’t very athletic and don’t bank on it.”

The parent was telling other LL parents the college coach told him his kid has college potential. There were a couple of  hang ups on the journey. The kid didn’t make LL all stars or the middle school team.

@anotherparent posted:

How did a thread about the MLB draft become about tweener players?

It's a good thing that it did.  This has been a good and useful thread.  But the original topic is one of the silliest things that has ever been posted here.

anotherparent, I did not call you out unless you read it that way.  My sentence said, "how they stack up against their peers on their teams and the competition some are looking through rose colored glasses."   The only thing I might change about that sentence is the word some to many when referring to parents.  Most parents cannot look at their child and see what is the difference between the kid who is getting the D1 offers and my kid.  The problem many times is parents, not you unless it applies to you, are looking at the stats from a different point of view of the RC or HC of D1 college.  Parents see that their son has similar batting average but what RC sees is that the son struggles against better pitching or something else. I was not alluding to your particular situation but parents in general.  I hear it every day from parents who say I don't see why my son/daughter is not getting recruited at all or by a certain level of school.  Parent the other day swore their kid could throw 91 and went to a showcase and threw 84.  Could not pitch a game in HS without getting pulled for a sore arm.  Parents don't understand why he is not getting recruited by anyone.  My answer was until he gets arm healed no one is going to touch him and every college around here has heard that he gets pulled for a sore arm.

I have a hard time believing that there are very many or any LHP's throwing 88 that miss the strike zone 90% that are getting P5 scholarships.  Understand also that what mama and daddy are calling offers may be walk-on invites which are not offers in my book.  Maybe there are some who throw 98 that miss 90% but not 88 who consistently miss 90% of the time.   I know there are none pitching in P5 schools that throw 88 and miss 90% of the time.  My son throws 88-90 LHP and has to throw 90% strikes to get pitching time.  I know he would not be there next year if he could not throw strikes and would not have gotten a scholarship offer at any P5 missing 90% of the time.

@3and2Fastball posted:

Ultimately, the college coaches will tell you, based on offers, where you are at. 

EXACTLY!

Those are some awful proposal teams it they spent over $3 million putting together a $10 million proposal...

All joking aside, I would say if you are in youth sports to chase a pro signing bonus, you are missing 99.99% of why you play baseball (or any other sport). First there's the love of the game, the thrill of competition, physical fitness/activity (like literally just keeping kids out of trouble) and the love of your teammates (which turns into lifetime friendships). Then there is all the things you learn: Work ethic, perseverance, failure, challenging yourself beyond what you thought was possible, time management, working for a crappy boss...I could go on and on.

My husband played college basketball and pro basketball overseas in Spain. He has teammates who had long careers in Germany. Two NBA coaches, one NBA ref, one sports agent and a bunch of guys who have lovely careers outside of sports. Probably half of them thought they would be drafted when they went to college. I would even argue had the talent to. Only one was but he never made an NBA roster. Recently one of them went through something tragic. The guys, all of them, were on the phone non-stop, supporting each other, problem solving, etc. nearly 30 years later. Would it have been a huge cherry on top if he had gotten drafted and made millions in the NBA? Absolutely. But he gained so much from playing sports and if he had quit because he wasn't going to get drafted, he would have missed out on all of that.

To answer the original question, there are "politics" in everything. Not as much at the MLB level because obviously pro teams want to win and if you make too many mistake for the sake of politics you don't keep your job...but there are a lot more variables than most people realize.  Some teams prefer a certain type of player over another (they give psych tests and interviews with behavioral specialists). Some teams are willing to take risks on a body type that's never played a position before (remember when Ripken was "too tall" to play shortstop?). Some teams love the story of the next generation (think Leiter this year but Sabathia, Big Poppy, Werth, etc. all have sons in HS now).  Some teams develop players and some don't. Some teams hold player in the minors to avoid going to arbitration. Some teams will draft a guy high to pay him under slot. So all a player can do is do their best, be themselves, do their research and let the chips fall where they may.