3and2Fastball posted:2020DAD - well said... The thing is, we don't know the full genetic potential until they get older. We've all seen the 16 year old who runs 7.5 and then who runs 6.9 at 18, or the line drive hitter as a Soph who starts hitting HR's as a Senior, and yes the Soph who throws 84 who is in the 90's by college.
It isn't "over" until the game of Baseball tells you it is over. For some it might be a longer steeper road with twists and turns.
One thing I have seen is that for the early bloomers the game flips on them, too, expectations are high, wear and tear in meaningless teenage tournaments is high etc
The bottom line is that coaches want out getters and runs and wins. Some might really need to prove themselves over & over again.
One thing that Perfect Game is more advanced than PBR on is the 10 yard split. There are kids who run 7.2 but have elite burst and quickness, can cover ground with proper angles and many times the 7.2 kid with the 1.59 ten yard is a better Baseball player than the 6.6 guy with the 1.81 ten yard. PG with the ten yard split is coming up with the early rudimentary method of showing that. More technology I'm sure is coming. Same with spin rate as you mentioned. The 84 mph kid who nobody can hit because he spins it and deceives the best hitters? There is a place for him.
I am with you on deluding oneself. At the same time don't get so caught up in numbers that you delude yourself into saying it is over before it even starts.
I won't dive into the numbers results since many more knowledgeable people here have brought up excellent points. This may have been posted previously, so I apologize, but a player may have off the chart numbers, high rankings, on the radar for power-5 since a freshman, but there is another aspect which makes a player desirable. How the person conducts themselves on and off the field. I know of at least 2 situations where because of a player's prior actions, one left the team during a critical time, and the other lost millions $$ because he dropped in the recent MLB draft. Social media is a great tool but also a great temptation. I know coaches/teams who contact the opposing coaches not to find out about what kind of player he is, but what kind of person he is.