quote:According to the data, it appears that the importance of a draft pick’s age has, in fact, changed over time… but not in the direction you’d expect: the advantage enjoyed by young players increased dramatically from 1997 to 2003. The average return from the youngest 20 percent of draft picks during this span was more than triple the return of the oldest 20 percent... If a player who might look like a third-round pick on talent alone happens to be a full year younger than his draft class, he ought to be considered a late-first-round pick....The conclusion is clear: at least as recently as 2003, the baseball industry as a whole massively underrated the importance of age in drafting high school hitters and massively undervalued high school hitters who still needed their parents’ permission to sign their contract.
I'm sure there will be a few misinterpretations of this so let me make it clear. Baseball has consistently underestimated the importance of age for HS seniors. As a result the kids who are older for their age coming out of HS have gotten a significant advantage in terms of being drafted and being drafted earlier. The kids who are younger for their grade have been bleeped over to some degree.
Although the talent of the very best wins out over time it seems obvious that some have been overlooked or not given a chance due to their age when graduating from HS.
HS hitters vs. Age
This clearly applies to pro baseball. IMO, it doesn't apply as much to college baseball as the maturity advantage enjoyed by the older player is going to tend to persist to some degree through 3 or 4 years of college baseball.