We hear all the time how important certain things are to winning in baseball. How would you rank the following as far as their relation to winning games?
Winning team had:
fewer Walks+HBPs+WPs+Balks+Hits+Errors.
highest OPS.
highest BA.
fewer BBs+HBs.
fewer errors.
highest strike percentage.
highest 1st pitch strike percentage.
highest K percentage.
lowest percentage of pitches thrown with runners on base.
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The winning team scores more runs than the losing team...
Stats - Baseball by definition is a defensive game. It is a rare sport that winning is defined by a defensive outcome - recording 27 outs and allowing fewer runs than the opponent. Almost all other sports are defined as scoring more at the expiration of a clock.
It is for this reason that I would be inclined to focus on the fewest base runners allowed as a indicator of the team that will have the most success over time. So choosing from your list I would select #1.
Having scored a boatload of games it was very unusual for a team to put 4/5 or more runners on base than the opponent and still lose. It happened but not frequently. In HS if you send 33 hitters to the plate and the opponent sends 26 I'll wager that the team sending 33 wins a monster percentage of those games.
It was easy to tell looking at a scorebook who won....the side of the book that had more writing in it. Sounds crazy but it was true.
Originally Posted by luv baseball:
Stats - Baseball by definition is a defensive game. It is a rare sport that winning is defined by a defensive outcome - recording 27 outs and allowing fewer runs than the opponent. Almost all other sports are defined as scoring more at the expiration of a clock.
It is for this reason that I would be inclined to focus on the fewest base runners allowed as a indicator of the team that will have the most success over time. So choosing from your list I would select #1.
This is only my data, but although from year to year or game to game it might change, overall #1 does have the highest percentage at over .864.
Having scored a boatload of games it was very unusual for a team to put 4/5 or more runners on base than the opponent and still lose. It happened but not frequently. In HS if you send 33 hitters to the plate and the opponent sends 26 I'll wager that the team sending 33 wins a monster percentage of those games.
Could be, but I’ve never looked, but I’ll keep it in mind.
It was easy to tell looking at a scorebook who won....the side of the book that had more writing in it. Sounds crazy but it was true.
What I did in my program was create an in game picture of what’s taken place on the offense to get a quick representation of what’s taken place because I no longer have that sheet of paper to look at. 
See attached.
Red background with yellow font is BB& HBP, Yellow background with Red font is ROE, Black background with white font is K, White background with black font is made an out, Dark Blue is single, Light Blue is double, Light Purple is triple, and Bright Green is HR. Usually the one with the most colors other than black and white are winning the game, and it only takes a second or two to see it.
Originally Posted by bballman:
The winning team scores more runs than the losing team...
And you have never once said something like “We won because…” or “We lost because…” because you’re the ultimate Pragmatist. That would make you the only coach in the world who’s done that.
The reason I take the time to generate this kind of metric is to show people reality rather than what they’ve heard or believe. In some cases like luv, what he believes is pretty much in line with reality, but in waaaaaaaay to many cases the person saying things like the above is barely even partially right.
Originally Posted by bballman:
The winning team scores more runs than the losing team...
And you have never once said something like “We won because…” or “We lost because…” because you’re the ultimate Pragmatist. That would make you the only coach in the world who’s done that.
The reason I take the time to generate this kind of metric is to show people reality rather than what they’ve heard or believe. In some cases like luv, what he believes is pretty much in line with reality, but in waaaaaaaay to many cases the person saying things like the above is barely even partially right.
How can you EVER be wrong with what I said. No matter what the other stats say, if one team scores more runs than the other, they win. 100% of the time.
Have you never seen a game where one team gives up 10 hits, 3 errors and 5 walks - the other team takes a perfect game 2 outs into the 9th, gives up a HR and loses 1-0? I know I am making up the numbers, but those types of games happens. The stats sheet would EASILY give the game to the losing team, but, one team scored more runs than the other and won.
Of course, you can try to quantify the numbers to see what is most important. If it came down to it, I would probably take the first item on your list. But bottom line is, you are trying to score more runs than your opponent. Different teams do that different ways. Some teams bulk up on pitching and defense. Some teams go with a fast, high average team and try to "manufacture" runs. Some teams try to go with power hitters and depend on the HR. Each one of these scenarios would yield a different set of stats. But if they score more than their opponents, they win.
If I were to look at your numbers, it may tell me how your particular team went about winning - or losing. It would tell me nothing about how another team went about winning. In other words, if your team is built on speed and average, they would have a completely different set of stats than a team built on power and hitting HRs.
So, while all the numbers can be neatly processed to come up with the best way to win, it really comes down to scoring more runs than your opponent - regardless of which approach you take.
Originally Posted by bballman:
The winning team scores more runs than the losing team...
And you have never once said something like “We won because…” or “We lost because…” because you’re the ultimate Pragmatist. That would make you the only coach in the world who’s done that.
The reason I take the time to generate this kind of metric is to show people reality rather than what they’ve heard or believe. In some cases like luv, what he believes is pretty much in line with reality, but in waaaaaaaay to many cases the person saying things like the above is barely even partially right.
And yes, I have said "“We won because…” or “We lost because…” . But it has always been very game dependent. Sometimes I felt son's team did not get enough clutch hits - leaving too many runners in scoring position. Sometimes I thought they walked too many batters. Sometimes it was because of one or more untimely errors. Sometimes I thought the coach left a pitcher in too long and he wound up giving up too many runs. (You can go into the stats about what he gave up and how, but I would consider that a coaching mistake, not necessarily a player stat that effected the game). But when it comes down to it, they lost because they didn't score more runs than the opponent.
You know, it's amazing to me just how many games are won or lost because of base running. Yet it is probably the least practiced skill in baseball. I'm not talking about speed or quickness as much as knowledge and technique, instincts and decision making.
Many never understand the decisions they have to make on their own. Some simply think that the base coaches make every decision. It's been said that the best base runners seldom need a base coach.
I watched Willie Mays play a lot and I can't honestly ever remember him making a base running mistake or poor decision. I suppose you could say that about some other great players. It's just most people don't understand how important this is in nearly every game.
Just another thread created by Stats where he's going to tell people they're wrong and reinforce how valuable he is as a scorekeeper. Probably more valuable than a coach given he thinks most coaches are stupid.
For what it's worth, below the college level I was big on my team running the bases aggressively in an attempt to get the other team throwing the ball around. In turn, I wanted my team to be smart defensively and not throw the ball around.
Originally Posted by bballman:
How can you EVER be wrong with what I said. No matter what the other stats say, if one team scores more runs than the other, they win. 100% of the time. …
Well, technically that isn’t true, but for the sake of moving on we’ll say it is.
By your reasoning no one should ever look at anything other than the final score. Suits me, but I daresay you prolly better not hold your breath waiting for a call from a ML team to be the GM or manager. 
Originally Posted by bballman:
How can you EVER be wrong with what I said. No matter what the other stats say, if one team scores more runs than the other, they win. 100% of the time. …
Well, technically that isn’t true, but for the sake of moving on we’ll say it is.
Originally Posted by bballman:
How can you EVER be wrong with what I said. No matter what the other stats say, if one team scores more runs than the other, they win. 100% of the time. …
By your reasoning no one should ever look at anything other than the final score. Suits me, but I daresay you prolly better not hold your breath waiting for a call from a ML team to be the GM or manager.
And as to this, first of all, I am certainly not looking for a job as a GM or a manager. If I was, I would look at different stats as more important than others depending on what kind of team I wanted to put together. As I said in my other posts, if I wanted to build a team around power, I would consider things like slugging % and OPS MUCH more important than BBs, BA and OBP. I would be looking for the big HR hitters who generally have lower BAs and higher K numbers.
Once again, to look at your stats, it will tell me how YOUR team went about winning. It wouldn't tell me about what I needed for MY team to go about winning.
Originally Posted by PGStaff:
You know, it's amazing to me just how many games are won or lost because of base running. Yet it is probably the least practiced skill in baseball. I'm not talking about speed or quickness as much as knowledge and technique, instincts and decision making.
Many never understand the decisions they have to make on their own. Some simply think that the base coaches make every decision. It's been said that the best base runners seldom need a base coach.
I watched Willie Mays play a lot and I can't honestly ever remember him making a base running mistake or poor decision. I suppose you could say that about some other great players. It's just most people don't understand how important this is in nearly every game.
The truth is, every phase of the game both offensively and defensively affects the outcome, which is why there’s no such thing as the perfect stat. It’s just impossible to measure everything in enough detail. With base running, I’m sure we’ve all seen instances of poor and great execution, but how much of that is because of poor or great defensive execution? To me it comes down to a runner being aware of the defense’s capabilities and how their capabilities match. FI, it’s doubtful Willie would ever try to score on a short fly ball to Clemente, but he’d run in a heartbeat on an F9 who wasn’t known to have an accurate cannon
Originally Posted by bballman:
Can you give me an example of a team scoring fewer runs than their opponent and still winning? I've never heard of that.
Assume a team is winning 25-0 in the 2nd inning. They’ve scored more runs haven’t they? What happens if something goes on to force the team scoring the 25 runs to forfeit?
OBR 2.00 - A FORFEITED GAME is a game declared ended by the umpire-in-chief in favor of the offended team by the score of 9 to 0, for violation of the rules.
http://www.retrosheet.org/forfeits.htm
…Once again, to look at your stats, it will tell me how YOUR team went about winning. It wouldn't tell me about what I needed for MY team to go about winning.
?????? The stats I posted in this thread came from 94 different opponents while I was scoring for 6 different teams, so how are my numbers limited only to how MY team went about winning?
You got me on the forfeit.
As far as your spreadsheet, I really can't make heads nor tails out of it. I'm not sure any of the data shows a particular team and their winning percentage. It is a very confusing chart and I really just don't have the time or energy to figure it out.
You got me on the forfeit.
As far as your spreadsheet, I really can't make heads nor tails out of it. I'm not sure any of the data shows a particular team and their winning percentage. It is a very confusing chart and I really just don't have the time or energy to figure it out.
Well..."technically" he didn't get you on the forfeit.
In the rules, a forfeit wipes out all of the actually "scored" runs and gives the "winning" team 9 runs. So "technically" the team with the most runs still won
Originally Posted by bballman:
…As far as your spreadsheet, I really can't make heads nor tails out of it. I'm not sure any of the data shows a particular team and their winning percentage. It is a very confusing chart and I really just don't have the time or energy to figure it out.
I don’t use spreadsheets. All I posted were some reports, and the only thing anyone needs to look at is the top of the 1st page for any of the different reports. If you want to take the time to look at every individual game you can certainly do that, but I seldom waste my time doing that because all I’m interested in is the winning percentage for the given criteria.
Originally Posted by Buzzard05:
Well..."technically" he didn't get you on the forfeit.
In the rules, a forfeit wipes out all of the actually "scored" runs and gives the "winning" team 9 runs. So "technically" the team with the most runs still won
Wrong. Nothing is wiped out other than the final score unless the game was forfeited before it became a regulation game. As you can see all runs scored by individual players remain in the record book.
OBR 10.00 … After each game, including forfeited and called games, the official scorer shall prepare a report, on a form prescribed by the Office of the Commissioner, with respect to Major League games, and the Minor League President, with respect to Minor League games, listing the date of the game, where it was played, the names of the competing clubs and the umpires, the full score of the game and all records of individual players compiled according to the system specified in this Rule 10. The official scorer shall forward this report to the Office of the Commissioner, with respect to Major League games, and the league office, with respect to Minor League games, as soon as practicable after the game ends. The official scorer shall forward the report of any suspended game as soon as practicable after the game has been completed, or after it becomes a called game because it cannot be completed, as provided by the Rule 4.12(b)(4). …
OBR 10.03 OFFICIAL SCORE REPORT (ADDITIONAL RULES)
(e) CALLED AND FORFEITED GAMES.
(1) If a regulation game is called, the official scorer shall include the record of all individual and team actions up to the moment the game ends, as defined in Rules 4.10 and 4.11. If the game is a tie game, the official scorer shall not enter a winning or losing pitcher.
(2) If a regulation game is forfeited, the official scorer shall include the record of all individual and team actions up to the time of forfeit. If the winning team by forfeit is ahead at the time of forfeit, the official scorer shall enter as winning and losing pitchers the players who would have qualified as the winning and losing pitchers if the game had been called at the time of forfeit. If the winning team by forfeit is behind or if the score is tied at the time of forfeit, the official scorer shall not enter a winning or losing pitcher. If a game is forfeited before it becomes a regulation game, the official scorer shall include no records and shall report only the fact of the forfeit.
Rule 10.03(e) Comment: The official scorer shall not consider that, by rule, the score of a forfeited game is 9 to 0 (see Rule 2.00 (Forfeited Game)), notwithstanding the results on the field at the point the game is forfeited.
Originally Posted by bballman:
Well, whatever it is you posted is too confusing to understand.
You really can’t understand that the number of times a set of criteria was met and a team won divided by the number of total games where the criteria weren’t equal is the winning percentage? I’ve had 8 and 9 YOs look at those reports and understand them, so I’m sorry, but if you can’t understand that, I’m guessing you don’t want to. But that’s ok. We all have our own blind spots.
Stats...here is a question for you based off of the rules you just cited....
A pitcher in my area recently pitched a game where he gave up a homer to the first batter, then went on to strike out the next 21 batters. His team won the game. However after the game it was discovered that the pitcher had thrown one inning over the legal limit for the week and his team had to forfeit the game.
The "talk" was that the pitcher's achievement of breaking the school strikeout record in a single game was wiped out, as if the game never happened. However it looks like based on the rules you cited that the individual statistics all remain intact except the fact that he was the winning pitcher. Correct (or am I totally misunderstanding the rules?)
Originally Posted by bballman:
Well, whatever it is you posted is too confusing to understand.
You really can’t understand that the number of times a set of criteria was met and a team won divided by the number of total games where the criteria weren’t equal is the winning percentage? I’ve had 8 and 9 YOs look at those reports and understand them, so I’m sorry, but if you can’t understand that, I’m guessing you don’t want to. But that’s ok. We all have our own blind spots.
You're an arrogant jerk stats. Of course I know what a winning percentage is. There is no where on the sheet you provided above that says anything about winning percentage. In fact, here is your description of what is on the sheet:
Red background with yellow font is BB& HBP, Yellow background with Red font is ROE, Black background with white font is K, White background with black font is made an out, Dark Blue is single, Light Blue is double, Light Purple is triple, and Bright Green is HR. Usually the one with the most colors other than black and white are winning the game, and it only takes a second or two to see it.
The closest you come to saying anything about a winning percentage is: "Usually the one with the most colors other than black and white are winning the game". How is that sorting anything into a winning percentage.
This "colorsheet.pdf" is the only document you have posted on this website. I cannot copy and paste the document into my reply, so I suggest you go back and look at what you posted. Maybe I'm not seeing something.
Can anyone else make sense out of the document Stats posted earlier in this thread? Does anyone else see anything regarding a winning percentage?
To the board, I apologize for the name calling. Just don't know what else to say about this guy. If I'm wrong about what I'm seeing in this document, I will come back and apologize. Other than that, I will do my best to stay out of this thread.
Lefty Gomez great Yankee pitcher told me a story of when he was i HS Rodeo, California.
In the 7 inning game Lefty strike out 21 batters and the opposing pitcher struck out 27 batters.
WHO WON?
BOB
In his 1st game at Yankee Stadium April 1030 the 6'3 155 pound LHP, 50,000 people, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and the great Yankees players.
Lefty knees "shaking". Lefty said "There was more people in the Yankee Stadium than he ever observed in Rodeo his whole life.
Originally Posted by Buzzard05:
Stats...here is a question for you based off of the rules you just cited....
A pitcher in my area recently pitched a game where he gave up a homer to the first batter, then went on to strike out the next 21 batters. His team won the game. However after the game it was discovered that the pitcher had thrown one inning over the legal limit for the week and his team had to forfeit the game.
The "talk" was that the pitcher's achievement of breaking the school strikeout record in a single game was wiped out, as if the game never happened. However it looks like based on the rules you cited that the individual statistics all remain intact except the fact that he was the winning pitcher. Correct (or am I totally misunderstanding the rules?)
You have to remember that I quoted OBR which does not govern HS games. Get hold of an NFHS rulebook and look at rule 4.4.2. In order to get the real answer, you’d have to contact your local rule arbitrator for your state assn. There’s nothing in the NFHS book I can see that lays it out the way OBR does. My best guess is, all individual records stand. The forfeit penalty is against the team, not the players.
Originally Posted by bballman:
You're an arrogant jerk stats.
And you’re an insufferable fool. So now that we’ve both showed our asses by some ignorant name calling, let’s look at what you’re talking about.
Of course I know what a winning percentage is. There is no where on the sheet you provided above that says anything about winning percentage. In fact, here is your description of what is on the sheet:
Red background with yellow font is BB& HBP, Yellow background with Red font is ROE, Black background with white font is K, White background with black font is made an out, Dark Blue is single, Light Blue is double, Light Purple is triple, and Bright Green is HR. Usually the one with the most colors other than black and white are winning the game, and it only takes a second or two to see it.
The closest you come to saying anything about a winning percentage is: "Usually the one with the most colors other than black and white are winning the game". How is that sorting anything into a winning percentage.
This "colorsheet.pdf" is the only document you have posted on this website. I cannot copy and paste the document into my reply, so I suggest you go back and look at what you posted. Maybe I'm not seeing something.
Can anyone else make sense out of the document Stats posted earlier in this thread? Does anyone else see anything regarding a winning percentage?
To the board, I apologize for the name calling. Just don't know what else to say about this guy. If I'm wrong about what I'm seeing in this document, I will come back and apologize. Other than that, I will do my best to stay out of this thread.
ROTFLMAO!!!!!! That description was about a colored scoresheet I put in my program for an easy way to get the general sense of what was going on. That was in response to luv saying “It was easy to tell looking at a scorebook who won....the side of the book that had more writing in it. Sounds crazy but it was true.”
That has absolutely nothing to do with percentages, and if you weren’t so intent on trying to make me look foolish, you’d have caught that long before you dumped your bile on the board. I never posted the reports to this board for this thread because no one asked to see them. For all I knew you’d seen them in the past or gone to my web site and seen them.
I’m sorry you leaped to such a wrong conclusion because we weren't speaking the same language.
The colored score sheet is the ONLY document you posted on this thread. Why would I be talking about something you posted on another thread or on another board?
I stayed away from you for a long time stats. Time to get back in that habit. If you are going to denigrate people for not understanding something that you haven't even posted on the thread we are dealing with, there is no use in even talking to you. I should have known better... It was my mistake for commenting at all on your post.
See ya.
Originally Posted by bballman:
The colored score sheet is the ONLY document you posted on this thread. Why would I be talking about something you posted on another thread or on another board?
I’ve posted those numbers off and on for the better part of 10 years now, plus they’re always on my web site, so how do I know what you have or haven’t seen? Fact is, you got mad about something that wasn’t there.
I stayed away from you for a long time stats. Time to get back in that habit. If you are going to denigrate people for not understanding something that you haven't even posted on the thread we are dealing with, there is no use in even talking to you. I should have known better... It was my mistake for commenting at all on your post.
All you had to do was ask to see the numbers! I didn’t want to post them because I honestly wanted to see some discussion. I’ve been trying to get others to post their numbers so there’d be a comparison, but most do what you did. Rather than present their information, they prefer to take shots at mine.
See ya.
Not if I see you first.
