Here in Ocala Florida my son's highschool has about 1700 students. There are 4 other public high schools in the area with similar populations. It has really watered down the distribution of talent combined with 3 private hgh schools. I know that there are bigger schools in the more urban areas of Tampa, Orlando and Miami, but there is a significant portion of Florida that is still rural. I don't think you can just figure that each H.S. in the state has 13000 students.
quote:The post about weaker competition in the north is BS.
I'm one Northerner who believes that if you were able to take the # 1 teams, from 4 divisional classes, from each State and having a tournament where North and South teams are divided evenly on each side of the bracket, with teams playing 3 game series along the way, in the end 75% of your final 4 teams in each division would consist of Southern schools.
Studs may be roam the whole field but team depth will stay in the South, and depth IMHO defines the level of competition.
The math says there is only so much to go around. I will choose science and math over opinion.
Just reading an article about teen births and it appears that these young baseball players from these proclaimed "talent rich baseball states" may be doing more than playing ball.
quote:Nationally, a preliminary report on the 2006 data revealed that the U.S. teen-birth rate had risen for the first time in about 15 years.
About 435,000 of the nation's 4.3 million births in 2006 were to mothers 15-19. That was about 21,000 more teen births than in 2005.
Numerically, the largest increases were in states with the largest populations, as California, Texas and Florida together generated almost 30 percent of the nation's extra teen births in 2006.
and they call it revitalizing youth baseball. 
quote:The math says there is only so much to go around. I will choose science and math over opinion.
Slugger,
Not sure what you're arguing about? Everyone knows there is plenty of talent all over the country. I kind of thought everyone knew that there is more of it in certain areas.
I appreciate all the math and science, but in baseball we have something even better to prove a point... It is called RESULTS! History would be the subject!
I still think you're reading things that just aren't there. Not so competitive (compared to some others), doesn't mean there is no competition. There is competition at all high schools and all colleges and all of professional baseball. It is not the same everywhere.
Yes, I could easily prove that there are more 90+ mph pitchers in Florida, Texas and California... Georgia too. Every year! In fact, you can prove it yourself with math and science and history! Study the draft... It is a very good indicator!
I hope no one thinks we are downgrading northern players. Because that has not been the point. Everyone knows that great baseball players can come from anywhere. It just so happens that a large majority come from certain parts of the country. That is based on results (math, history, what ever you want to call it.) There's nothing to dispute, if we look at the results! I do think the gap is closing a bit, though. This is because the top northern kids are competing against the top southern players more than ever before outside of their high school seasons.
Slugger, I love all the numbers you're giving. In fact, I enjoy a good debate. Just think you might be reading something that isn't there, in this case. Then again, I might be writing something that isn't what I mean. Done that before!
If you take the top 75-100 college baseball programs... using any standard... You will find this disparity in talent... once again!
If you take the MLB draft... Once again this disparity in talent will show up.
The top player or even a few of the top players could come from anywhere... But the numbers (the totals) actually tell us something. The overall competition level is higher in certain parts of the country. Using numbers in any select way, doesn't change the facts!
The thing that has always amazed me about states like California, Florida, Texas, Georgia isn't how good the very best are, but the unbelievable number of very good players in those states. It's my opinion that is because of competition and environment.
Colleges in most parts of the country recruit players in state. That is the major reason why the numbers look like they do. Then if we look at the very best from the northern states, we see a lot of those going south or west to college. Not all, but many! What we very seldom see, unless it is one of very few colleges, is kids from the south and west going to colleges in the north. Perhaps you could do a study and come up with the numbers for that.
BTW, we saw a lot of real good players from Ohio and other northern states over the holidays. I do believe the gap is closing, but it's still a very large gap. I think most of us that live in the north understand that. It's not a down grading thing at all. It isn't about individuals being better, and it really is about the numbers. I just think you are using the wrong numbers.
Now if we are talking about "basketball players" vs baseball players. I think your numbers will be closer to being accurate.
If you take the MLB draft... Once again this disparity in talent will show up.
The top player or even a few of the top players could come from anywhere... But the numbers (the totals) actually tell us something. The overall competition level is higher in certain parts of the country. Using numbers in any select way, doesn't change the facts!
The thing that has always amazed me about states like California, Florida, Texas, Georgia isn't how good the very best are, but the unbelievable number of very good players in those states. It's my opinion that is because of competition and environment.
Colleges in most parts of the country recruit players in state. That is the major reason why the numbers look like they do. Then if we look at the very best from the northern states, we see a lot of those going south or west to college. Not all, but many! What we very seldom see, unless it is one of very few colleges, is kids from the south and west going to colleges in the north. Perhaps you could do a study and come up with the numbers for that.
BTW, we saw a lot of real good players from Ohio and other northern states over the holidays. I do believe the gap is closing, but it's still a very large gap. I think most of us that live in the north understand that. It's not a down grading thing at all. It isn't about individuals being better, and it really is about the numbers. I just think you are using the wrong numbers.
Now if we are talking about "basketball players" vs baseball players. I think your numbers will be closer to being accurate.
quote:The thing that has always amazed me about states like California, Florida, Texas, Georgia isn't how good the very best are, but the unbelievable number of very good players in those states. It's my opinion that is because of competition and environment.
They have more population, more high schools, more kids. On a % basis, it is relative. Naturally, you will have more very good players from a larger pool.
If Cali has 3000 high schools and Ohio has 1000 high schools, doesn't Cali have 3 times the number of high school baseball players?
Why is the proportion/ratio of D1 about the same?
In another thread I mentioned if all things were equal, wouldn't northern programs take the 2nd tier Cali kids over their own? No. In fact, on your website about signings, several Cali kids left the State to various places after the in-house Cherry pickin. What about the rest of them? I am sure they fill D2/3/JUCO/NAIA, as they do in every State.
One the very best D3 programs is Marietta College, in OHIO?
Over the past few years I've seen year round, indoor facilities popping up like weeds in eastern PA and NJ. Cust in NJ has a full size domed field. When my son and I were at Cust a few weeks ago, my son said, "We have to put a team in their winter league next year." It was too late for this winter. His current travel team works out in a beautiful facility that's not a full size field. He also has access through a friend into a facility the dad owns.
What effect do people believe these large indoor facilities will have on the development of the northern players?
What effect do people believe these large indoor facilities will have on the development of the northern players?
As far as tournaments and warm vs cold competition goes:
2008 summer WWBA
15U WWBA FINAL FOUR
Georgia Warm
California Warm
Texas Warm
Kentucky Cold
16U WWBA FINAL FOUR
Virginia Cold
N. Carolina Warm
New Jersey Cold
Georgia Warm
17U WWBA FINAL FOUR
New Jersey Cold
California Warm
Florida Warm
S. Carolina Warm
18U WWBA FINAL FOUR
Georgia Warm
Illinois Cold
S. Carolina Warm
Florida Warm
TOTAL 5 cold out of 16
COLT WORLD SERIES
Won by 12 cold weather teams out of 58 years
PONY WORLD SERIES
Won by 13 cold weather teams out of 55 years
LITTLE LEAGUE WORLD SERIES
Last 8 years, one cold weather (Kentucky) won the US title
IMO talent is equally distributed at birth, but repetition and the level of competition that results from that repetition is evident.
2008 summer WWBA
15U WWBA FINAL FOUR
Georgia Warm
California Warm
Texas Warm
Kentucky Cold
16U WWBA FINAL FOUR
Virginia Cold
N. Carolina Warm
New Jersey Cold
Georgia Warm
17U WWBA FINAL FOUR
New Jersey Cold
California Warm
Florida Warm
S. Carolina Warm
18U WWBA FINAL FOUR
Georgia Warm
Illinois Cold
S. Carolina Warm
Florida Warm
TOTAL 5 cold out of 16
COLT WORLD SERIES
Won by 12 cold weather teams out of 58 years
PONY WORLD SERIES
Won by 13 cold weather teams out of 55 years
LITTLE LEAGUE WORLD SERIES
Last 8 years, one cold weather (Kentucky) won the US title
IMO talent is equally distributed at birth, but repetition and the level of competition that results from that repetition is evident.
There may be a flaw in your research. What is the percentage of warm v. cold weather teams competing in these WWBA tournaments versus the percentage of winners?
What concerns me is there seems to be some posters determined to prove the southern players are better versus those determined to prove it's not true. Just don't take it personally.
I remember a lot of arrogance and hard feelings on softball boards when the California people strutted their attitude. Then a Virginia team won the ASA championship and Michigan won the WCWS.
This stuff is all going to balance out over time. Indoor facilties and year round training will be the equalizer.
One thing I doubt will change is many (not all) of the top studs leaving colder weather areas to play college ball in warmer regions. The one recruit that shocked me several years ago was Manship from Houston going to Notre Dame. I have to feel his family bleeds Notre Dame blue and gold.
What concerns me is there seems to be some posters determined to prove the southern players are better versus those determined to prove it's not true. Just don't take it personally.
I remember a lot of arrogance and hard feelings on softball boards when the California people strutted their attitude. Then a Virginia team won the ASA championship and Michigan won the WCWS.
This stuff is all going to balance out over time. Indoor facilties and year round training will be the equalizer.
One thing I doubt will change is many (not all) of the top studs leaving colder weather areas to play college ball in warmer regions. The one recruit that shocked me several years ago was Manship from Houston going to Notre Dame. I have to feel his family bleeds Notre Dame blue and gold.
Most cold weather areas have more kids that want to be a hockey player. That certainly skews the numbers.
The kids here would rate BB very low on their wish to play list...
The kids here would rate BB very low on their wish to play list...
3FingeredGlove - did a per capita analysis in the following thread and it shows that California produces almost 2.5 times more drafted players per million population than Ohio. His analysis effectively washes out the larger population argument. Statistics don't mean anything if the underlying assumptions are wrong. Notice the top four states are the exact same ones PG says his "experience" supports. I see he did not list them in order. Washington is a pretty good baseball producing state it appears.
http://hsbaseballweb.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/6616002781/...821056952#6821056952
quote:See 3FG's post in the following thread:
For the entire country, there were 4.6 players drafted per million people. By state, for the top ten (or eleven) states:
CA 260 7.13
FL 169 9.34
TX 145 6.17
GA 58 6.19
IL 48 3.74
NC 45 5.08
WA 42 6.57
PA 42 3.38
AZ 40 6.49
OH 32 2.79
NY 32 1.66
http://hsbaseballweb.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/6616002781/...821056952#6821056952
I won't dispute those numbers relating to the draft. In fact, totally agree, and it goes back to TPM and her comment about where the scouts are, and how many.
You know because you experienced 4 years of NEO HS baseball and the wonderful conditions. You probably met the same area scouts we have?
Our area scouts come out of the woodwork and start following the college games. Seen most of the same guys at our games, home and away, and they are just a handful. When the weather warms, you may see one here or there, but they generally don't attend that many HS games with a few exceptions. For HS players, they show up more in summerball, after the draft, and pretty much travel around the same venues starting with Midland, events held at universities, then the BS100 showcase.
I would call that minimal exposure. Maybe someone from Cali can represent how their HS games are followed by scouts?
Just imagine the area scouts and their lobbying power for their players. Maybe a scout from Cali and Ohio can tell us more about leverage and persuasion?
As far as college baseball placement, I still like my numbers presented.
You know because you experienced 4 years of NEO HS baseball and the wonderful conditions. You probably met the same area scouts we have?
Our area scouts come out of the woodwork and start following the college games. Seen most of the same guys at our games, home and away, and they are just a handful. When the weather warms, you may see one here or there, but they generally don't attend that many HS games with a few exceptions. For HS players, they show up more in summerball, after the draft, and pretty much travel around the same venues starting with Midland, events held at universities, then the BS100 showcase.
I would call that minimal exposure. Maybe someone from Cali can represent how their HS games are followed by scouts?
Just imagine the area scouts and their lobbying power for their players. Maybe a scout from Cali and Ohio can tell us more about leverage and persuasion?
As far as college baseball placement, I still like my numbers presented.
quote:Originally posted by OLDSLUGGER8:
More Math Please:
There are 36,000,000 people in California and over 3000 high schools.
There are 12,000,000 people in Ohio and say about 1000 high schools.
The math indicates a distribution of about 12000 people per school for both.
Florida, about 13000 people per high school
18,000,000 folks and about 1350 schools
One can conclude that the distribution of baseball talent spreads to all these schools. One can also conclude that an Ace exists at each school, say a kid throwing 90mph. Wanna bet the rest are average HS arms? Wanna bet hitters get the best of the average pitchers in every State?
The mere fact of 1000 over 3000 means there are more Aces due to population. It does not prove that the Region with 3000 is more of a high level baseball hotbed.
OS:
Then would it not seem that MLB scouts should conclude and pay almost as much attention to the 1,000 90mph pitchers in Ohio as they do the 1,350 90mph pitchers in Florida, statistically speaking, according to your analysis? Possibly more so to Ohio because their arms are less toiled.
I have enjoyed this debate, and I will stop now before someone thinks that I am taking it personal.
P.S. My son played with the Midland Indians last summer and he really respects the players and families he was blessed to have the opportunity to be around.
quote:Just imagine the area scouts and their lobbying power for their players. Maybe a scout from Cali and Ohio can tell us more about leverage and persuasion?
You're getting into a twisted scenario by trying to credit a scout for a players talent. That's almost like saying fire trucks are responsible for burning buildings because you've seen fire trucks at burning buildings.
BHD, Scouts go to where the players are. Scouts don't CREATE players by going north or south, they follow players.
Great Debate fellows, whats especially great is there is no disrespect or ugliness from anyone that sometimes happens. Just a great read.
PG: I read about a pitcher they found a long time ago. I dont think he even had a HS team to play on, and he pitched, throwing balls into a haystack. Do you recall? I found it pretty interesting and goes to show that if you really have the talent it wont matter where you come from.
PG: I read about a pitcher they found a long time ago. I dont think he even had a HS team to play on, and he pitched, throwing balls into a haystack. Do you recall? I found it pretty interesting and goes to show that if you really have the talent it wont matter where you come from.
Sidd Finchquote:Originally posted by fanofgame:
Great Debate fellows, whats especially great is there is no disrespect or ugliness from anyone that sometimes happens. Just a great read.
PG: I read about a pitcher they found a long time ago. I dont think he even had a HS team to play on, and he pitched, throwing balls into a haystack. Do you recall? I found it pretty interesting and goes to show that if you really have the talent it wont matter where you come from.
FOG... You mean, talent and skill.
I wanted to jump in with my observation on the whole regional talent thing.
I am in a position that allows me to see HS level games played both in SoCal (MLB incubator?) and Oklahoma (very middle America). My observation has been, the overall quality of team play is not that different between the two areas, at least at the HS level. Notice that I said team play though, that’s because there are certainly individual players that immediately draw your attention in both states.
This becomes important when it’s time for summer/travel ball. I’m sure it’s much easier to recruit a high caliber travel team in California where there are many more top tier players to choose from than in Oklahoma where there are fewer candidates. The same theory should hold true for Florida and Texas I’m sure. This can give you the perception that the talent level in the sunny states is higher than in some of the more temperature challenged states. I'm not saying that there aren't great teams headquartered in cold weather states because there are. I'm just saying that if I needed to pick the best team I could, it would probably be easier to fill the roster in a warm weather state. I believe it’s more of an anomaly based on population than a corner on the talent market. More Teams = More Players = Stronger Travel Teams = Regional Domination!, or something like that. If you look at the rosters of the better teams at the WWBA in Jupiter for instance, you will see very good players from all corners of the country. There is just a higher density from CA, FL and TX. Maybe that’s why there’s so much media and scouting attention in those areas!
I will say this though, here in LA, there are showcases, tournaments and even high school exhibition games going on all winter long. My son’s team in Oklahoma however, is limited to indoor workouts with some occasional outside practice time. In my opinion, tee work, batting cages and indoor drills don’t hold a candle to full speed game play in helping to make you a better player. So in that regard, warm weather certainly helps hone your skill, but talent is talent no matter where it lives.
I am in a position that allows me to see HS level games played both in SoCal (MLB incubator?) and Oklahoma (very middle America). My observation has been, the overall quality of team play is not that different between the two areas, at least at the HS level. Notice that I said team play though, that’s because there are certainly individual players that immediately draw your attention in both states.
This becomes important when it’s time for summer/travel ball. I’m sure it’s much easier to recruit a high caliber travel team in California where there are many more top tier players to choose from than in Oklahoma where there are fewer candidates. The same theory should hold true for Florida and Texas I’m sure. This can give you the perception that the talent level in the sunny states is higher than in some of the more temperature challenged states. I'm not saying that there aren't great teams headquartered in cold weather states because there are. I'm just saying that if I needed to pick the best team I could, it would probably be easier to fill the roster in a warm weather state. I believe it’s more of an anomaly based on population than a corner on the talent market. More Teams = More Players = Stronger Travel Teams = Regional Domination!, or something like that. If you look at the rosters of the better teams at the WWBA in Jupiter for instance, you will see very good players from all corners of the country. There is just a higher density from CA, FL and TX. Maybe that’s why there’s so much media and scouting attention in those areas!
I will say this though, here in LA, there are showcases, tournaments and even high school exhibition games going on all winter long. My son’s team in Oklahoma however, is limited to indoor workouts with some occasional outside practice time. In my opinion, tee work, batting cages and indoor drills don’t hold a candle to full speed game play in helping to make you a better player. So in that regard, warm weather certainly helps hone your skill, but talent is talent no matter where it lives.
I really wish a dad and not an innocent mother had fallen for my response. Now I feel mean.quote:Originally posted by fanofgame:
RJM,
Thanks , what ever happened to him, I dont recognize the name. I am a mom and dont know a lot of young players.
Sidd Finch
RJM,
And I feel stupid , so I will delete my question.Thats why I hesitate to post sometimes. But I am sure you were just joking.
And I feel stupid , so I will delete my question.Thats why I hesitate to post sometimes. But I am sure you were just joking.
I actually read about that pitcher in the sporting news magazine my husband subscribes to. If any one really knows who the kid is and what happened to him please reply.
I was joking. I thought I would get a wise remark from someone who remembers the story. I sometimes forget which names are men and which are women.quote:Originally posted by fanofgame:
RJM,
And I feel stupid , so I will delete my question.Thats why I hesitate to post sometimes. But I am sure you were just joking.
I do beleive that FrankF's son Josh knows Sidd Finch. 
Fanofgame,
Don't be embarrassed, lots of people fell for Plimpton's story.
FrankF's son, portrayed Finch in a show, not sure what it was, about stories being true or false?
Fanofgame,
Don't be embarrassed, lots of people fell for Plimpton's story.
FrankF's son, portrayed Finch in a show, not sure what it was, about stories being true or false?
RJM,
I know you were joking, I am not upset.
I know you were joking, I am not upset.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
IMO
Why did I think you retired?